The shortage and uneven spatial and distribution of agricultural water resources has greatly restricted the sustainable development of regional society and economy. In this study, an improved five-element connection number set pair analysis model, which subdivides the same–different–opposite connection number in the set pair analysis theory to enhance the integrity and effectiveness of the original ternary connection numbers is constructed to evaluate the agricultural water resources carrying capacity (AWRCC) in the Haihe River Basin. Based on this evaluation result, an optimization model (AROL model) is proposed to optimize the effective irrigation area and groundwater exploitation to achieve a “better level” of AWRCC. The evaluation result shows that the current AWRCC of the Haihe River Basin is relatively low. The AWRCC in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning is Level III and the current agricultural water resources are not overloaded but have little carrying potential. The AWRCC of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, and Shandong are rated IV and overloaded, among which Shandong has the lowest comprehensive score and the most serious overload. The optimization result shows that the extraction and conservation of groundwater in most areas of the Haihe River Basin is unbalanced and the effective irrigation area needs to be increased. With different current conditions in different areas, the groundwater exploitation and the effective irrigation area is adjusted correspondingly. Among the areas, the adjustment of groundwater exploitation and the effective irrigation area in Hebei are the most significant.
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