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Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xiong’an New Area Based on System Dynamics Model

School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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Water 2019, 11(5), 1085; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051085
Received: 22 April 2019 / Revised: 21 May 2019 / Accepted: 22 May 2019 / Published: 24 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

In order to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area, a system dynamics (SD) model was established to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity, for which several scenarios were designed: the original development scenario, the accelerated industrialization scenario, the environmental governance scenario, and the optimization development scenario. The results show that, compared with the original development scenario, the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area can be improved in other scenarios, but a water supply and demand gap will be generated due to the lack of groundwater overdraft and a water transfer project. In 2026, under the accelerated industrialization scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.652 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 1.13 × 108 m3; under the environmental governance scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.36 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 0.44 × 108 m3; under the optimal development scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.654 million, and since the supply of water resources will be greater than the demand, there will not be a gap between supply and demand, making it the most feasible scenario to effectively alleviate the tension between industry restructuring, environmental management, and water resources development and utilization. The findings of this study can provide reference and decision support for optimizing regional water resources allocation and enhancing water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area. View Full-Text
Keywords: water resources carrying capacity; SD model; industry restructuring; Xiong’an New Area water resources carrying capacity; SD model; industry restructuring; Xiong’an New Area
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Sun, B.; Yang, X. Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xiong’an New Area Based on System Dynamics Model. Water 2019, 11, 1085.

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