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Attribution of Runoff Reduction in the Juma River Basin to Climate Variation, Direct Human Intervention, and Land Use Change

1,2, 1,3,*, 4 and 1,*
1
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2
College of Resources and Environment, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3
Key Laboratory for Resources Use & Environmental Remediation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4
Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(12), 1775; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121775
Received: 24 October 2018 / Revised: 30 November 2018 / Accepted: 30 November 2018 / Published: 3 December 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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PDF [24541 KB, uploaded 3 December 2018]
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Abstract

Juma River, located in the Midwest of the Haihe River basin, is an important source of water supply to Beijing and Hebei. Over the past decades, the region has been seriously threatened by water shortages owing to complex climate conditions and intensive human activities. This study investigated the runoff characteristics of the Juma River by employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and stochastic methods for the period of 1961–2013. Accordingly, the runoff changes attributed to the climate variation and different types of anthropogenic activities (land use change and direct human intervention) were estimated, respectively, in conjunction with the improved quantitative response analysis. The results indicated that the annual runoff of both Zijingguan station and Zhangfang station has decreased significantly at the 0.001 significance level, and reduction rates were −0.054 billion m3 and −0.10 billion m3, respectively. Moreover, the persistency of this trend has been shown for decades (Hurst coefficient > 0.50). The SWAT model was calibrated and validated during the baseline period of 1961–1978. Significant rising temperatures and declining precipitation were the main reasons for runoff reduction, especially during the two periods of 1998–2002 and 2003–2008. Additionally, water withdrawal of Wuyi canal aggravated the runoff reduction and water scarcity conditions in the region. After 2009, the effects of direct human intervention exceeded those of climate change. However, the impact of land use change can be seen as negligible during the study period. Climate change had a greater effect on runoff reduction in winter, while the impact of human activities was more dramatic in summer. View Full-Text
Keywords: attribution analysis; climate change; direct human intervention; SWAT model; Juma River attribution analysis; climate change; direct human intervention; SWAT model; Juma River
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Bu, J.; Lu, C.; Niu, J.; Gao, Y. Attribution of Runoff Reduction in the Juma River Basin to Climate Variation, Direct Human Intervention, and Land Use Change. Water 2018, 10, 1775.

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