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The Impact of Global Warming on Wind Energy Resources and Ramp Events in Japan

Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Environmental Science Research Laboratory, 1646 Abiko, Abiko-shi, Chiba 270-1194, Japan
Atmosphere 2019, 10(5), 265; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10050265
Received: 22 April 2019 / Revised: 9 May 2019 / Accepted: 11 May 2019 / Published: 13 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology and Meteorology)
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Abstract

This study investigated the impact of global warming on Japanese wind energy resources and their short-term variations using the large ensemble d4PDF dataset, which consists of dynamically downscaled historical and +4K future climate projections. The capacity factor under the future and present climate was estimated from an idealized power curve based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. The +4K warming future climate projections showed significant changes in wind energy resources that varied both regionally and seasonally. The wind energy potential was projected to slightly increase (decrease) from winter to spring over northern (southern) Japan and decrease from summer to autumn over most of Japan. The projected annual production decreased by about ~5% over Japan in response to climate change. The frequency of wind ramp events also decreased in the latter seasons. The relationship to synoptic weather was investigated using self-organizing maps, whereby weather patterns (WPs) over the region in the present and future +4K climate were classified for a two-dimensional lattice. Future probabilistic projections of WPs under the global warming scenario showed both increases and decreases in the frequency of different WPs, with corresponding advantages and disadvantages for wind power generation with regard to future changes in capacity factors in Japan. The importance of these frequency changes on the total change was further assessed by separating the dynamical and thermodynamic contributions. View Full-Text
Keywords: capacity factor; wind energy resource; climate change; self-organizing maps; weather patterns; synoptic circulation; constructed circulation analogs capacity factor; wind energy resource; climate change; self-organizing maps; weather patterns; synoptic circulation; constructed circulation analogs
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Ohba, M. The Impact of Global Warming on Wind Energy Resources and Ramp Events in Japan. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 265.

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