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Climate Change Projections of Extreme Temperatures for the Iberian Peninsula

Department of Physics and Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM)–University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-093 Aveiro, Portugal
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Atmosphere 2019, 10(5), 229; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10050229
Received: 26 March 2019 / Revised: 16 April 2019 / Accepted: 26 April 2019 / Published: 29 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology and Meteorology)
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Abstract

The comprehensive characterization of heat waves and extreme hot days is fundamental for policymakers due to its vast implications for human health. This study evaluates extreme temperature changes over the Iberian Peninsula for the present climate and future projections, considering extreme temperature indices, cold/heat waves, and a recovery factor, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The projected temperatures show an increase of over 6 °C. An increase in the number of summer days and tropical nights and a decrease in frost days is expected. The number of heat waves and their duration and intensity are expected to increase. The number of heat wave days are expected to increase, with much of the average summer season being under heat wave conditions. The recovery factor is expected to decrease. Cold spells are projected to decrease in terms of number, intensity, duration, and number of spell days, whereas the recovery factor is expected to increase. Heat wave analysis was combined with maximum temperature thresholds to isolate extreme heat waves. The results show an increase in extreme heat wave days, with regions experiencing over 10 heat wave days with maximum temperature surpassing 45 °C for the long-term future. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; extreme temperatures; heat waves; cold spells; Iberian Peninsula; bias correction; WRF climate change; extreme temperatures; heat waves; cold spells; Iberian Peninsula; bias correction; WRF
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Viceto, C.; Cardoso Pereira, S.; Rocha, A. Climate Change Projections of Extreme Temperatures for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 229.

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