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Article

Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Predictions in Flood Detention Areas of Yangtze River Basin Based on AIF-HOM-PLUS Model

by
Siyuan Liao
1,
Wei Wang
1,
Chao Wang
1,2,3,*,
Renke Ji
1,
Aoxue Cui
1,
Dong Chen
4,
Xiang Zhang
3,5 and
Nengcheng Chen
3
1
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Hubei Luojia Laboratory, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
2
Key Laboratory of Basin Water Resources and Eco-Environmental Science in Hubei Province, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China
3
National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
4
School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
5
SongShan Laboratory, Zhengzhou 450046, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(11), 1857; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17111857
Submission received: 10 April 2025 / Revised: 17 May 2025 / Accepted: 23 May 2025 / Published: 26 May 2025

Abstract

As global urbanization accelerates and economic development progresses rapidly, a series of ecological and environmental challenges have emerged. In certain countries, particularly in developing nations such as China, India, and Bangladesh, flood detention areas (FDAs) have been increasingly encroached upon by urbanization, resulting in growing conflicts between flood control functions and economic development. Therefore, accurately predicting urban expansion trends in these regions is considered essential for providing scientific guidance for sustainable regional development. In this study, the PLUS model was selected as the baseline based on comparative experiments. On this foundation, a novel AIF-HOM-PLUS framework was developed. In this framework, a new method, Adjacent Image Fusion (AIF), was proposed to reduce local temporal noise by utilizing adjacent multi-temporal data. Subsequently, Higher-Order Markov chains (HOM) were incorporated to capture complex temporal dependencies and long-term transition patterns. The Middle-Reach Yangtze River urban agglomeration (MRYRUA), including FDAs in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), was selected as the study area, and LULCCs in 2035 and 2050 were predicted. The results showed the following: (1) among the basic models, the PLUS model exhibited the best performance, while the AIF method significantly improved its overall accuracy (OA) by 2%; (2) the area of impervious surfaces within the FDAs of the YRB will increase at an average annual rate of 1.29%, which pertains to the conflict between the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 9.1 and SDG 11.a, which has become a critical issue that needs urgent attention; (3) the area of impervious surfaces in the MRYRUA will increase at an average annual rate of 1.3%, primarily at the expense of cropland and water bodies.
Keywords: flood detention area; Yangtze River Basin; urbanization; PLUS; land use and land cover change; China flood detention area; Yangtze River Basin; urbanization; PLUS; land use and land cover change; China

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Liao, S.; Wang, W.; Wang, C.; Ji, R.; Cui, A.; Chen, D.; Zhang, X.; Chen, N. Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Predictions in Flood Detention Areas of Yangtze River Basin Based on AIF-HOM-PLUS Model. Remote Sens. 2025, 17, 1857. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17111857

AMA Style

Liao S, Wang W, Wang C, Ji R, Cui A, Chen D, Zhang X, Chen N. Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Predictions in Flood Detention Areas of Yangtze River Basin Based on AIF-HOM-PLUS Model. Remote Sensing. 2025; 17(11):1857. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17111857

Chicago/Turabian Style

Liao, Siyuan, Wei Wang, Chao Wang, Renke Ji, Aoxue Cui, Dong Chen, Xiang Zhang, and Nengcheng Chen. 2025. "Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Predictions in Flood Detention Areas of Yangtze River Basin Based on AIF-HOM-PLUS Model" Remote Sensing 17, no. 11: 1857. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17111857

APA Style

Liao, S., Wang, W., Wang, C., Ji, R., Cui, A., Chen, D., Zhang, X., & Chen, N. (2025). Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Predictions in Flood Detention Areas of Yangtze River Basin Based on AIF-HOM-PLUS Model. Remote Sensing, 17(11), 1857. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17111857

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