3. Analytical Strategy
3.1. Data
To examine the differences between the older adult and non-older adult generations, as well as the changes in support levels for policies assisting families with children among older adult individuals with and without children in their households, before and after policy changes, data that repeatedly observe and measure the welfare attitudes of these groups are required. To address the research questions mentioned above, this study utilizes data from the Korean Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS), which repeatedly measures individual-level support for welfare programs, focusing on the welfare perception module. By applying a difference-in-differences model, the study compares changes in welfare attitudes within the older adult generation towards policies supporting families with young children, distinguishing between older adult individuals with and without beneficiaries in their households, before and after the implementation of universal free childcare in 2014.
KOWEPS develops special issues each year, conducting surveys on three main themes—children, the disabled, and welfare perceptions—on a three-year cycle. The welfare perception survey was conducted in the second (2007), fifth (2010), eighth (2013), and eleventh (2016) waves. The welfare perception module includes questions on general social and political attitudes, perceptions of growth and redistribution, views on income redistribution, opinions on funding welfare programs, and perceptions of government responsibility in different sectors, as well as attitudes towards welfare beneficiaries. This dataset can be combined with demographic and socio-economic information of respondents, their experience with various welfare programs, and information on whether there are beneficiaries within the household, all of which are part of the main KOWEPS survey [
22].
The treatment effect in this study, defined as the “rapid change in child and family support policies,” refers to the introduction of universal free childcare in March 2013. Therefore, this study utilizes the eighth wave data collected between 1 January and 8 June 2013, and the eleventh wave data collected between 2 March and 8 June 2016, as the primary datasets for analysis. The eighth wave of the Korean Welfare Panel Study, which serves as the baseline for this analysis, was conducted between January and June 2013. Although the childcare reform was officially announced in March 2013, its legal enactment through the amendment of the Infant Care Act occurred in August 2013, with full implementation commencing in March 2014. As such, while respondents surveyed after March 2013 may have been exposed to media coverage or public discourse surrounding the forthcoming reform, the data used in this study were collected prior to the actual policy implementation. Therefore, the attitudinal measures can reasonably be interpreted as reflecting pre-treatment preferences. Using the fifth wave from 2010 as an alternative baseline would have ensured a clearer temporal separation between pre- and post-treatment periods. However, doing so would also increase the likelihood of confounding effects from unrelated exogenous factors and reduce the analytical focus on life-cycle-based generational dynamics, which is central to this study. For these reasons, the eighth wave was retained as the baseline, with due recognition of the associated limitations regarding potential anticipatory bias.
In the second and fifth waves of the welfare perception survey, the sample was composed of the household head and/or their spouse, rather than all household members, which raised issues regarding representativeness. To address this issue, in the eighth wave, a survey was conducted on all household members aged 19 and older from 2399 households (6248 individuals), which were selected using a stratified probability-proportional-to-size sampling method based on region and class from the entire seventh wave sample. In the eleventh wave welfare perception supplementary survey, 3634 household members from 2121 households (out of the 2399 households that participated in the eighth wave) were included in the sample [
22]. In this study model, data from 1452 individuals aged 65 and older as of 2012 were analyzed.
The International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) and the welfare perception survey of the Korean Welfare Panel, which is similarly structured, ask respondents about government responsibility, while explicitly stating that their responses may result in increased tax burdens. This is designed to mitigate the issue of respondent inconsistency by structuring survey questions to make respondents aware that their choices may lead to additional personal costs, thus providing practical implications. By premising the potential for personal financial burden, the welfare perception survey asks about the necessity of expanding the government’s active role in specific policy areas, such as child and family support. This approach reduces the likelihood of inconsistent responses and is an effective method for measuring welfare attitudes. Therefore, this study utilizes the relevant questions from the survey as welfare perception measurement items.
※
Please indicate whether you would like government spending in each of the following areas to increase or decrease. Please keep in mind that if spending increases significantly, it may require higher taxes. [Area: Support for families with children]- 1.
Increase spending significantly - 2.
Increase spending somewhat - 3.
Maintain current spending levels - 4.
Decrease spending somewhat - 5.
Decrease spending significantly ※
For the actual analysis, responses were reverse-coded for ease of interpretation. |
3.2. Analytical Model
Over the past decade, South Korea’s welfare state has experienced unprecedented expansion, particularly in policies designed to support both older and younger generations. Programs such as the Basic Old-Age Pension (2008), Long-Term Care Insurance (2008), and the Basic Pension (2014) have significantly broadened coverage for older adult citizens. Simultaneously, family policy has grown through initiatives like the universal childcare system (2014). This rapid and bifurcated policy evolution has created what Woo [
23] refers to as a quasi-experimental environment—a context in which policy changes occur suddenly and exogenously, allowing researchers to compare outcomes across affected and unaffected groups in a manner akin to experimental design [
23].
To empirically evaluate the influence of extended self-interest on welfare preferences among the older adults in a quasi-experimental environment, this study adopts a difference-in-differences (DiD) analytical framework. The core strategy involves comparing changes in attitudes toward child and family policy between 2013, a period of rapid policy change in the child and family support sector, and 2016 across two distinct subgroups within the older adult population: those who co-reside with children aged 0–17 (hereafter, the Co-residing Older Adults) and those who do not (the Non-co-residing Older Adults).
The decision to use co-residence status as the grouping variable is rooted in the theoretical argument that physical and relational proximity to younger generations can activate extended self-interest. In many cases, when older adult individuals in Korea co-reside with children aged 0 to 17, it is more likely that the children are their grandchildren rather than their own children. This suggests that such households are either grandparent–grandchild households or extended families. Older adults living with children are more likely to observe or participate in caregiving routines and directly experience the benefits or shortcomings of family policy. Thus, their policy preferences may reflect not only their own material self-interest but also the perceived needs of their co-residing family members While co-residence does not guarantee emotional intimacy or reciprocal support, it often reflects closer physical proximity, shared responsibilities, and embedded family roles that may activate relational dimensions of self-interest. As such, it is used here as a proxy for extended self-interest within the constraints of the KOWEPS dataset.
The DiD model estimates the average treatment effect of policy reform (i.e., the introduction of universal free childcare in March 2014) by interacting a time dummy (post-treatment: 2016 = 1, 2013 = 0) with a group dummy (Co-residing Older Adults = 1, Non-co-residing Older Adults = 0). The dependent variable is measured as support for increased government spending on families with children, recorded on a 5-point Likert scale and reverse-coded to ensure higher values reflect stronger support.
The analytical equation is formally represented as:
where:: policy support score for individual i at time t
: 1 if individual i is Co-residing Older Adults, 0 otherwise
Postt: 1 if year is 2016, 0 if 2013
: vector of control variables (income, education, gender, ideology)
: error term
The coefficient on the interaction term captures the DiD estimate: the differential change in support for family policy attributable to both co-residence and exposure to the reform.
Control variables are included to account for potential confounders that influence welfare attitudes. Prior studies have shown that income and education are associated with redistributive preferences, while gender and ideology shape normative views about the state’s role. Including these variables helps isolate the specific influence of intergenerational co-residence.
While group assignment is not random, the panel structure of the KOWEPS dataset and the exogenous policy shift in 2014 enhance the plausibility of causal interpretation. Robustness checks using subsample regressions and alternative specifications are addressed in the empirical section that follows.
4. Results
This section empirically explores whether the presence of intergenerational solidarity within families—particularly through co-residence—may attenuate potential sources of generational conflict. Specifically, the analysis investigates whether life-cycle-based self-interest among older adults expands to include the welfare of younger family members [
8,
10]. If differences in welfare attitudes are observed based on co-residence status, even in the absence of significant policy effects, such findings may suggest that familial ties mediate how individuals perceive welfare needs across generations, offering a nuanced perspective on the “conflict intensification theory which argues that the expansion of welfare policies exacerbates intergenerational conflict. This is because welfare perceptions are shaped not solely by individual generational interests but by considering the interests of household members from other generations.
If each generation develops welfare perceptions solely based on their self-interest, the development of welfare systems could provoke intergenerational conflict. However, if welfare preferences are shaped by considering the interests of other family members, and policy preferences influence these perceptions, the expansion of welfare systems might narrow intergenerational perception gaps. This study utilizes data from the Welfare Perception Supplementary Survey of the Korean Welfare Panel Study to validate whether the mechanism of “conflict mitigation theory” holds in this context.
The
Table 1 below presents the mean and standard deviation of perceptions of “government responsibility” in supporting families with children among the older adult generation, categorized by the presence of “extended self-interest,” for the years 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2016. The original survey scale ranged from 1 (“spending should increase significantly”) to 5 (“spending should decrease significantly”). For analytical convenience, the values were reverse-coded, so higher mean values indicate stronger support for increased government financial responsibility in the respective area.
Let us examine the subgroup comparisons within the older adult generation. The category “with children in the household” refers to households where the respondent lives with children or adolescents aged 0–17. Among older adult respondents, those with children in the household accounted for 107 cases (7.4%) in 2013 and 56 cases (4.7%) in 2016. The subgroup of older adult individuals with children in the household showed a stronger preference for an active government role in the childcare sector compared to those without children in both 2013 and 2016. However, as not all differences shown in the table are statistically significant, it is necessary to examine how the “extended self-interest” mechanism operates using a difference-in-differences model.
The perception changes among older adult individuals considered to have a lower preference for “support for families with children” are analyzed.
Table 1 presents the perceptions of “support for families with children” among older adult individuals with and without children in their households, across three pre-policy-change periods (2007, 2010, and 2013) and one post-policy-change period (2016). The older adult generation is defined as individuals aged 65 and older, a group whose self-interest typically aligns with policies for income security in retirement, such as pensions. Within this generation, respondents were divided into those with children aged 17 or younger in their households and those without. The study compares group differences and policy effects within the older adult generation.
Although older adult respondents are not directly affected by childcare or child-rearing policies, if significant differences in perceptions or policy effects are observed between those with and without children in their households, and if those with children demonstrate a stronger preference for an active government role in childcare, this would indicate the influence of “extended self-interest” in shaping welfare perceptions. For this analysis, the older adult generation with children in their households serves as the program group, while those without children serve as the control group. Given that the policy change occurred in 2014, the parallel trend assumption was tested by examining changes in perception averages across three pre-policy periods: 2007, 2010, and 2013.
The comparison of the two groups revealed that at all three time points—2007, 2010, and 2013—the level of agreement among the program group (“older adult households with children”) was higher than that of the control group. Although the trajectories of change between the two groups were not entirely parallel, the differences in directional trends were minimal. Thus, common trends were addressed by incorporating control variables. Additionally, to verify the exogeneity of the treatment, control variables were sequentially included to examine whether policy effects and period effects varied. While overall support decreased modestly over time, the relative difference between the two groups persisted, suggesting that intergenerational co-residence is associated with stronger endorsement of child-oriented policy.
The difference-in-differences regression model evaluated whether this relative gap widened or narrowed following the 2014 policy expansion. The key interaction term (Group × Post) captured the differential change between the Co-residing and Non-co-residing groups. However, the coefficient on the interaction term was statistically insignificant across all model specifications (see
Table 2). This indicates that while the Co-residing Older Adults consistently showed more favorable attitudes, the policy reforms did not significantly alter this pattern. In other words, co-residence appears to influence the level—but not the responsiveness—of policy support. While the interaction term capturing the policy effect was statistically insignificant, this does not necessarily imply that the 2013 reform had no impact. Rather, the consistently higher levels of support for childcare among co-residing older adults may reflect a deeply rooted value orientation shaped by enduring familial norms and intergenerational obligations. These attitudinal predispositions appear to be relatively stable and less susceptible to short-term policy stimuli, suggesting that extended self-interest functions more as a structural orientation than a dynamic reaction. Indeed, recent Korean studies highlight the central role of co-residence and filial piety in reinforcing pro-childcare attitudes among older populations [
24,
25].
To evaluate the comparability of the treatment and control groups prior to the policy reform, we conducted a balance test using 2012 data. Statistically significant differences were found between Co-residing and Non-co-residing Older Adults in terms of income status (p < 0.001), gender (p = 0.020), and years of education (p = 0.023). No significant difference was observed in political ideology (p = 0.112). These results suggest that co-residence status is not randomly distributed and may be associated with certain background characteristics, highlighting the potential for selection bias. To account for these differences, all relevant covariates were included in the DiD regression model. I also conducted a propensity score matching (PSM) analysis using 2013 data. Older adults who co-resided with younger kin were matched to similar individuals who did not, based on income level, political ideology, gender, and education. The matched sample (n = 83 pairs) revealed that co-residing older adults expressed significantly higher support for childcare policies (t = 2.68, p = 0.008). A regression analysis on the matched sample confirmed this association (β = 0.288, p = 0.006), even after adjusting for covariate differences. These results provide additional support for the extended self-interest hypothesis and further strengthen the internal validity of the identification strategy. A more detailed application of causal inference methods, including PSM, will be explored in a separate study.
Models 1 through 5 compare the perception changes within the older adult generation, specifically between “older adult households with children” and “older adult households without children”. In all five models, where control variables were progressively added, both the period effects and the baseline preferences of the treatment group were statistically significant. The control variables were introduced to account for potential heterogeneity between the two groups. The stability of period effects and baseline preferences, as well as their statistical significance after the inclusion of control variables, suggests that the assumption of treatment exogeneity—a key requirement of the difference-in-differences analysis—was upheld.
Additional regression results offer further insight. The baseline preference (Group_i) coefficient was positive, reaffirming that Co-residing Older Adults were more supportive even prior to the reform. Meanwhile, the time effect (Post_t) was negative and statistically significant, suggesting an overall decline in support for childcare policy across the older adult population between 2013 and 2016. Among control variables, income level showed a significant negative relationship with support for child and family spending. This conservative trend has been noted in recent studies on Korean attitudes toward welfare [
26,
27], and it appears to have emerged in the context of ideological debates between universal and means-tested welfare that have taken place in the political sphere since the 2010s. It should also be considered alongside the finding that low-income older adults show lower levels of support for child welfare, which seems to be due to the perception that as selectivity increases, their own likelihood of receiving benefits may rise—despite the fact that the poverty rate for older adults in Korea reaches 40% [
27,
28]. Older adult individuals with lower income expressed lower support, possibly due to competing resource demands or a stronger focus on old-age benefits. Political ideology, education, and gender were not significant predictors in most models, indicating that household composition had a stronger explanatory power for the attitudes in question.
To assess the validity of the main findings, a placebo test was conducted using data from 2010 and 2013, prior to the full implementation of universal childcare in 2014. No statistically significant differences were found between the treatment and control groups in 2010, and the interaction term representing the policy effect was also not significant. This confirms that there was no spurious treatment effect in the pre-reform period, thereby supporting the parallel trends assumption and enhancing the internal validity of the identification strategy. These results further support the credibility of the DiD design.
Taken together, these findings provide partial support for the extended self-interest hypothesis. Co-residing Older Adults demonstrate higher average support for family-oriented welfare programs, consistent with the idea that proximity to younger generations broadens the perceived scope of relevant policy beneficiaries. However, this orientation does not appear to change in response to short-term reforms, suggesting that extended self-interest functions more as a stable predisposition than a flexible reaction to policy shifts.
These findings offer both empirical and theoretical implications. Empirically, they highlight the relevance of household structure as a determinant of welfare attitudes among older adults. Theoretically, they offer tentative support for the idea that extended self-interest may foster intergenerational solidarity—not through immediate responsiveness to policy change, but as a relatively stable orientation shaped by family composition and cultural norms.
5. Discussion and Conclusions
This study examined whether and how intergenerational co-residence influences older adult attitudes toward family and childcare policy through the conceptual lens of extended self-interest. Drawing on longitudinal panel data from KOWEPS and employing a difference-in-differences design, the analysis found that older adult individuals living with children consistently expressed higher support for government spending on families relative to those who did not co-reside. However, the 2014 childcare reforms did not produce a statistically significant shift in attitudes among the co-residing group, suggesting that extended self-interest may reflect a relatively stable predisposition shaped by family structure rather than a dynamic or policy-sensitive orientation.
These findings contribute to ongoing debates about the sources of welfare state preferences in aging societies. While much of the existing literature highlights the growing cleavage between age cohorts, often interpreted as a zero-sum conflict between old and young [
29], this study offers preliminary evidence that intergenerational solidarity may persist in certain family contexts. The higher average support for childcare policy among co-residing older adults suggests that under certain conditions, self-interest may extend beyond one’s own age cohort, particularly when close kinship ties are present.
More importantly, the findings of this study suggest a conceptual expansion of how self-interest is defined in the context of welfare attitudes. Contrary to the dominant assumption in the literature that self-interest is structured by one’s own life-cycle position or generational identity [
30], this study finds that older adult individuals in Korea do not confine their welfare preferences to the needs of their own age group. Instead, those who co-reside with younger kin appear to take into account the needs and interests of other generations within the family. In this sense, the boundaries of “self” are extended to encompass relational others, including grandchildren or younger dependents. This relational reframing of self-interest challenges the assumption that policy preferences are narrowly egoistic and age-bound [
30,
31], opening new directions for theorizing welfare attitudes in multigenerational households.
Nevertheless, the null policy effect observed in the DiD analysis warrants attention. One possible explanation is that family-based attitudes are more deeply rooted in cultural and relational norms than in policy feedback mechanisms. In the Korean context, where filial piety and multi-generational caregiving are culturally embedded, co-residence may signal a durable value orientation rather than a flexible attitudinal response. This distinction is important for understanding both the potential and the limits of family-based solidarity as a basis for welfare state consensus.