Comparison of Trends in Sustainable Energy Development in the Czech Republic and Poland

Abstract

The contemporary process of economic development necessitates a heightened focus on matters of sustainability, with a particular emphasis on sustainable energy policy. This is of paramount importance for the protection of the natural environment and the achievement of long-term economic growth. In the context of countries such as the Czech Republic and Poland, which have historically relied on high-carbon energy sources, the transition to a more sustainable energy system represents a significant challenge. The objective of this paper is to undertake a comparative analysis of the trends in energy sustainability in the Czech Republic and Poland from 2017 to 2021, with a particular focus on key performance indicators. The analysis, based on data from the OECD database, revealed notable discrepancies in the rate of change between the two countries, with Poland exhibiting a more pronounced surge in the proportion of renewable energy sources (RES). A Student’s t-test confirmed the existence of statistically significant differences in key indicators between the Czech Republic and Poland, thereby underscoring the diverse challenges that both countries encounter in their pursuit of sustainable energy development. The Granger causality test was employed to ascertain whether variables exhibit temporal relationships that may suggest potential correlations. However, it is important to note that this test does not prove direct causality, but rather indicates that the variables are related at a specific point in time. Interpretation of the results must be undertaken with caution, as the test does not account for the full complexity of relationships between variables, including external factors and structural changes in the economy. Meanwhile, the LMDI decomposition analysis identified the principal drivers of alterations in CO₂ emissions. The findings indicate that, despite advancements in sustainable energy development, Poland and the Czech Republic are confronted with distinctive challenges that necessitate the implementation of tailored policy responses. It is therefore recommended that further investment in renewable energy and the modernisation of energy infrastructure be made in order to achieve long-term sustainability goals.

1. Introduction

Energy sustainability represents a significant global challenge, constituting a pivotal component of strategies to combat climate change [1]. In response to the dual challenges of rising energy demand and the imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, countries around the world are implementing measures to enhance energy efficiency, develop renewable energy sources, and curtail CO₂ emissions [2,3,4,5]. As members of the European Union, the Czech Republic and Poland are bound by the European Energy and Climate Policy, which sets out the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 [6,7,8]. An analysis of trends in the sustainable energy development of these two countries between 2017 and 2021 allows us to assess the effectiveness of the implemented policies and to identify the main challenges and opportunities in the energy transition.

In order to provide a broader context for the energy transition in the Central European region, it is useful to focus on the differences in energy policies and approaches to sustainability in other countries. For example, Germany, a pioneer in the energy transition, has long prioritised the development of renewable energy sources as part of its Energiewende strategy [9]. Since the year 2000, the country has undergone a considerable reduction in CO₂ emissions, with investments in solar and wind energy representing a pivotal factor in this process. In comparison to the Czech Republic and Poland, Germany plays a pivotal role in establishing a regional trend for decarbonisation. Slovakia, conversely, with its considerable reliance on nuclear energy, demonstrates a relatively stable situation with regard to CO₂ emissions. This exemplifies the potential for nuclear energy to serve as a pivotal element of sustainable development in Central Europe [10].

The concept of energy sustainability can be defined as the management of energy resources in a manner that ensures the fulfilment of current energy [11] needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own energy requirements [12]. The growing demand for energy has given rise to a heightened level of discourse at the global and national levels concerning the need for a structure of energy carrier consumption that can ensure energy security and facilitate a reduction in the adverse effects of energy production and consumption on the natural environment [13,14,15]. In order to identify an optimal energy mix, it is essential to combine energy consumption data from energy balances with economic data that characterise economic activity, as measured by production and consumption volumes [16,17,18]. The most common source of economic data is national accounts. The integration of energy balances with national accounts enables the calculation of energy intensity of production, defined as the ratio of energy consumption to the volume of production, to be performed [19]. Other pivotal concepts pertinent to this subject matter include energy efficiency, renewable energy sources, and CO₂ emissions, among others. Energy efficiency can be defined as the ratio of useful energy obtained to total energy input into the system. It is a key concept in the reduction of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions [20,21,22,23]. The contribution of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and geothermal energy, to the energy mix of many countries is increasing, resulting in a reduction of CO₂ emissions [24]. Energy intensity, defined as the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP, is a measure of the efficiency of energy use in the economy [25].

The transition to a low-carbon economy represents one of the most significant challenges facing modern economies, particularly in the context of Central and Eastern Europe. Despite taking steps towards decarbonisation, Poland and the Czech Republic still face significant challenges related to their dependence on fossil fuels, a topic widely discussed in the literature [26,27,28]. Many studies highlight the crucial role of state policy and financial support mechanisms in promoting renewable energy sources [29,30]. Analyses demonstrate that the development of renewable energy sources is closely linked to the regulatory framework and the level of public and private investment [31,32,33].

In the context of global initiatives to tackle climate change [34,35,36,37,38], Poland and the Czech Republic represent an intriguing case study of the differing approaches to energy transition taken by countries with similar historical and geographical backgrounds [39,40,41,42]. Each of these countries faces distinctive challenges as a consequence of their historical reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources [43,44]. The analysis, which draws on a range of research methods, not only permits the progress of both countries to be evaluated but also offers insights that can inform future policy decisions on sustainable energy development.

The following sections of the paper present pertinent considerations pertaining to the research issue under discussion. Section 2 describes the data analysis methods employed, including trend analysis, Student’s t-test, Granger causality analysis, and LMDI decomposition. These methods are used to assess the differences and dynamics of sustainable energy development in the Czech Republic and Poland. Section 3 presents the findings of the analytical methods employed, including a comprehensive examination of the disparities in CO₂ emissions per capita and energy efficiency between the two countries. Section 4 then interprets the results in the context of the existing literature and compares them with the findings of other studies. The article concludes with Section 5, which provides a synthesis of the key findings and recommendations for energy policy in the Czech Republic and Poland, as well as suggestions for future research.

2. Materials and Methods

The study employed a range of analytical techniques, enabling a comprehensive examination of trends and relationships pertaining to sustainable energy development in the Czech Republic and Poland. The selection of these methods was driven by the objective of the study, which was to examine the evolving dynamics of the energy sectors in both countries and to ascertain the primary factors influencing these changes. The trend analysis captured the general directions of change in CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and the share of renewable energy sources, which was crucial for assessing long-term processes in the energy sector. Student’s t-test was employed to ascertain whether the observed discrepancies between the Czech Republic and Poland were statistically significant. This allowed for an understanding of the magnitude and direction of these discrepancies in the context of sustainable energy development. Granger causality analysis permitted the examination of temporal relationships between variables, rather than causality in the direct sense. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method was then used to facilitate the detailed identification of factors influencing changes in CO₂ emissions, including the impact of economic growth, energy intensity, fuel structure, and energy efficiency.

These methods have inherent limitations. Student’s t-test is based on the assumption of normality in the data distribution, which may affect the interpretation of the results, particularly in the case of irregular or small samples. Granger causality analysis, despite its widespread use, requires caution in interpretation, as statistical causality does not necessarily imply true causal relationships. LMDI decomposition, while useful, is sensitive to economic variables whose volatility may affect the results.

The study’s research hypothesis states that Poland, despite the greater challenges posed by CO₂ emissions and higher energy consumption, can achieve a level of energy sustainability comparable to that of the Czech Republic through dynamic investments in renewable energy sources and improvements in energy efficiency.

In order to achieve the research objective, data from the OECD database, which covers key variables related to the energy sector and the economies of both countries from 2017 to 2021, was employed. The data set comprised CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, energy intensity, the proportion of renewable energy sources in electricity generation, and GDP per capita. Furthermore, data on research and development (R&D) budgets for renewable energy were incorporated to investigate the influence of investment in innovation on sustainable energy development. The reliability and comparability of OECD data between different countries are of paramount importance for comparative analysis. The OECD provides comprehensive and detailed data, which are indispensable for a thorough examination of the energy sector and CO₂ emissions.

The analyses were conducted using a range of tools, including MS Excel and Python. Trend graphs were created in MS Excel 2019, facilitating the visualisation of long-term changes in the study variables. All other analyses, including Student’s t-test, Granger causality analysis, and LMDI decomposition, were performed using Python version 3.12 (64-bit). Python was employed in conjunction with relevant libraries, namely pandas, numpy, statsmodels, and logmean. This combination of tools facilitated comprehensive data analysis and ensured the accurate presentation of results in the article.

ChatGPT was used to generate suggestions for data analysis and code structure in Python. The Kite tool was used to automatically generate code in Python to support statis-tical analysis and calculations. The authors analysed and verified all generated data to ensure accuracy.

3. Results

3.1. Trend Analysis

Analysis of CO₂ emission trends in the Czech Republic and Poland between 2017 and 2021 provides valuable insight into the dynamics of change in both countries. Figure 1 compares CO₂ emissions, in million tonnes, in the two countries, offering a visual representation of the differences and similarities in their energy and economic policies. It is notable that there is an overall downward trend in both countries, particularly pronounced in Poland, which indicates the effectiveness of the measures taken to reduce emissions.

Despite exhibiting lower emissions than Poland, the Czech Republic is also demonstrating a decline, attributable to an augmented share of renewable energy sources and enhanced energy efficiency. In contrast, Poland, which has historically relied on coal as its primary energy source, is gradually reducing emissions, although they remain higher than in the Czech Republic. This may indicate the necessity for further reforms in energy policy. Additionally, it is noteworthy that there was a significant decline in emissions in 2020, which can be attributed to the global impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which led to a reduction in economic activity and, consequently, in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.

Following the conversion of CO₂ emissions per capita, the results demonstrate that, while Poland’s nominal CO₂ emissions are markedly higher than those of the Czech Republic, per capita emissions portray a contrasting scenario. Despite higher nominal emissions, Poland exhibited lower per capita emissions between 2017 and 2021 (2017: 8.05; 2018: 8.00; 2019: 7.56; 2020: 7.15; 2021: 7.95) than the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic (2017: 9.61; 2018: 9.49; 2019: 8.97; 2020: 8.21; 2021: 8.62) exhibited a contrasting trend due to disparities in its economic structure, particularly the elevated industrial intensity of its economy and its heightened industrial reliance on fossil fuels.

In 2017, the Czech Republic exhibited a total energy consumption of 43.33 million tonnes of oil equivalent, while Poland demonstrated a considerably higher figure of 103.84 million tonnes. This discrepancy reflects the pronounced dissimilarities in the economic and demographic structures of the two countries. In subsequent years, although the values fluctuated, the overall trend demonstrated relatively stable energy consumption in the Czech Republic, which ranged from 40.18 million tonnes in 2020 to 42.31 million tonnes in 2021. In contrast, Poland exhibited an ostensible decline in energy consumption in 2020 (to 101.75 million tonnes), followed by an increase to 107.62 million tonnes in 2021. This may indicate a resurgence in economic activity following a period of pandemic-related constraints (Figure 2).

As shown in Figure 3, the comparison of energy intensity per capita between the Czech Republic and Poland reveals significant differences across the analyzed period.

In 2017, the Czech Republic exhibited significantly higher energy consumption per capita (4.09 tonnes) than Poland (2.70 tonnes). Similar values are observed in subsequent years, with energy consumption per person in the Czech Republic remaining above 4 tonnes (with the exception of 2020, where it was 3.76 tonnes), while in Poland the values are lower, ranging from 2.65 to 2.83 tonnes per person. Despite an overall decrease in both countries in 2020, likely attributable to the constraints imposed by the pandemic, per capita consumption in both countries returned to levels similar to those observed prior to the pandemic in 2021. In 2021, the Czech Republic recorded a consumption of 4.03 tonnes per person, while Poland recorded 2.82 tonnes per person. These figures indicate disparities in the structure of energy consumption and energy efficiency between the Czech Republic and Poland, which may be attributed to differences in the energy mix and economic structure of the two countries.

The trends in renewable electricity generation as a percentage of total electricity generation for both the Czech Republic and Poland from 2017 to 2021 are presented in Figure 4.

In 2017, the proportion of renewable energy sources in electricity production was 11.20% in the Czech Republic and 14.19% in Poland. In the following years, an increase in this share was observed in both countries; however, the dynamics of these changes differed. In the Czech Republic, the growth was more stable, reaching 12.60% in 2021. In Poland, however, the growth was more dynamic, with the highest RES share in 2020 at 17.95%, and then slightly decreasing to 17.05% in 2021. The year 2020 was a notable one, as evidenced by the pronounced surge in the share of RES in both countries. This phenomenon may be attributed to a reduction in energy demand from conventional sources during the global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as the intensification of policies designed to promote the development of renewables. It is noteworthy that Poland, despite initially having a higher share of renewable energy sources, experienced less volatility in its renewable energy share than the Czech Republic. This may suggest differences in the stability of energy policies and sensitivity to external changes between the two countries.

Figure 5 illustrates the proportion of renewable energy in the total energy supply in the Czech Republic and Poland between 2017 and 2021. This indicator is of great significance when it comes to evaluating the progress of the energy transition in both countries. In 2017, the Czech Republic recorded a renewable energy share of 10.14%, while in Poland it was 8.54%. In the subsequent years, the proportion increased gradually in both countries, although the growth rate exhibited variation. In 2020, the Czech Republic reached a maximum of 12.17%, while Poland reached a slightly higher level of 12.43%. In 2021, the proportion of renewable energy in the Czech Republic was 12.04%, while in Poland it was 11.80%. It is noteworthy that, despite an initial lower level in 2017, Poland briefly surpassed the Czech Republic in terms of renewable energy share in 2020. This may be attributed to a more dynamic renewable energy support policy or differences in the energy mix during the pandemic. However, in 2021, both countries exhibited similar values, which may indicate a consistency in their approach to the energy transition.

Additionally, analysis of budgetary and economic variables was conducted in a descriptive manner, without any form of quantitative analysis. With regard to real GDP per capita, the Czech Republic exhibits a higher figure for this indicator than Poland during the period under analysis. In 2017, the value of this indicator in the Czech Republic was USD 36,405.97, while in Poland it was USD 28,704.86. Both countries demonstrate an upward trajectory in GDP per capita over time, with the exception of 2020, which was marked by a decline in both. This can be attributed to the global impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In 2021, the Czech Republic once again achieved an increase, reaching USD 38,202.89, while Poland also recorded an increase, reaching USD 33,480.97.

With regard to the percentage of public energy R&D budget dedicated to renewable energy, the Czech Republic allocated a considerably smaller proportion of its R&D budget to renewable energy compared to Poland. In 2017, the Czech Republic allocated 9.56% of its R&D budget to renewable energy, whereas Poland allocated as much as 28.24%. In the subsequent years, there is a discernible decline in the proportion of the budget allocated to renewable energy in Poland, with the exception of a brief surge in 2019. In 2021, the percentage declined to 14.08%. Similarly, in the Czech Republic, the proportion demonstrates a decline, from 9.56% in 2017 to 8.61% in 2021. These figures demonstrate that, despite a greater investment in R&D in renewable energy in Poland, the Czech Republic maintains a higher level of GDP per capita. This indicates that the two countries adopt disparate approaches to financing innovation in the energy sector and prioritise different economic objectives.

3.2. Student’s t-Test

In order to facilitate an accurate comparison of the key variables related to energy sustainability in the Czech Republic and Poland, a Student’s t-test was employed. This method was selected for its capacity to evaluate discrepancies between the mean values of variables for two independent groups. In the context of this study, the groups are the Czech Republic and Poland, and the variables pertain to aspects such as CO₂ emissions, total energy consumption, energy intensity per capita, the share of renewable energy sources in electricity production and total energy supply, and budgets allocated to renewable energy research and development.

As evidenced by the tabulated t-test results, there are statistically significant differences between the Czech Republic and Poland in several key variables related to energy sustainability. With regard to the initial variable, the T-statistic of −28.27 and the extremely low p-level suggest that the discrepancy between Czech and Polish CO₂ emissions is highly statistically significant. The discrepancy between Poland and the Czech Republic is particularly pronounced in this regard, underscoring the imperative for more rigorous emission reduction strategies. With regard to CO₂ emissions per capita, the T-statistic of −3.945 and the significant p-value indicate a statistically significant difference between the Czech Republic and Poland. This suggests that the Czech Republic has higher per capita CO₂ emissions compared to Poland, which may be attributed to disparities in individual carbon footprints that may stem from differences in energy consumption patterns, efficiency levels, or economic activities. With regard to the total energy supply, a T-statistic of −57.805 and the p-value similarly indicate a highly significant discrepancy in energy consumption between the two countries. This may be attributed to differences in industrial structure and energy sources. With regard to energy intensity per capita, the t-test result (17.910) indicates a significant discrepancy between the Czech Republic and Poland. The Czech Republic exhibits a higher energy consumption per capita, which may be indicative of lower energy efficiency or a greater energy demand in specific economic sectors. With regard to renewable electricity generation, a score of −4.579 and the p-value indicate that the differences in renewable energy production between the two countries are statistically significant. This suggests that there are disparate levels of sophistication in the integration of renewable energy sources in the energy mix. With regard to the variable of renewable energy supply, the T-statistic score of 0.012 and the high p-value indicate that the observed differences between the Czech Republic and Poland are statistically insignificant. This implies that both countries have similar levels of RES energy supply. With regard to the final variable under examination, the T-statistic of −3.830 and the p-value suggest that the discrepancies in the distribution of R&D budgets for renewable energy are also noteworthy, with Poland allocating a greater proportion of its resources to this objective.

3.3. Granger Causality Analysis

The analysis of causal relationships, or Granger causality, is a fundamental tool for evaluating whether changes in one indicator (such as the proportion of renewable energy in the energy mix) can be attributed to changes in another indicator (such as gross domestic product per capita).

The notable correlation between renewable electricity generation and real GDP per capita indicates that an increase in the proportion of renewable energy sources in the Czech energy mix is associated with positive economic growth. In the context of sustainable energy development, this implies that investments in renewable energy sources can serve as an effective instrument for stimulating economic growth while simultaneously contributing to reductions in emissions and enhancing energy efficiency. This reinforces the strategic importance of renewable energy sources in Czech energy policy. The significant relationship between energy intensity per capita and real GDP per capita indicates that reducing energy intensity, that is to say, increasing energy efficiency, is of crucial importance for long-term economic growth. In the context of sustainable development, this implies that the Czech Republic should continue its efforts to increase energy efficiency in order to facilitate further economic growth in a sustainable manner. The strong causality from total energy supply to production-based CO₂ emissions demonstrates that an increase in energy consumption in the Czech Republic is associated with an increase in CO₂ emissions. Consequently, any measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption will be pivotal in reducing CO₂ emissions in the context of sustainable development.

In Poland, a notable correlation exists between the generation of renewable electricity and the country’s real GDP per capita. This indicates that an expansion in the proportion of renewable energy sources within the energy mix is associated with economic growth. This indicates that Poland faces comparable challenges and opportunities to those observed in the Czech Republic, underscoring the necessity for further advancement of the renewable energy sector as part of a broader strategy for sustainable development. Additionally, Poland exhibits a notable correlation between energy intensity per capita and real GDP per capita, indicating that reducing the energy intensity of the economy is a crucial aspect of its continued growth and development. Consequently, energy efficiency constitutes a pivotal element of Poland’s sustainable energy development strategy. The robust causality observed between total energy supply and production-based CO₂ emissions in Poland suggests that elevated energy consumption is directly correlated with augmented emissions. This represents a challenge for Poland in light of its reliance on coal as its primary energy source, underscoring the necessity to decarbonise the economy and enhance the contribution of cleaner energy sources.

The application of the Granger test enabled the identification of temporal relationships between the development of renewable energy sources and economic growth in Poland and the Czech Republic. It is important to note, however, that these results merely suggest the existence of temporal relationships and do not unequivocally prove causality. Consequently, further research should focus on a more thorough understanding of the mechanisms behind these relationships, taking into account the impact of EU policies and regulatory changes in both countries. The results of this study correspond with those of previous analyses that suggest that the development of renewable energy sources can have a positive impact on GDP growth. However, this requires further support from policymakers.

3.4. LMDI Decomposition Analysis for CO₂ Emissions

The application of structural decomposition analysis using LMDI represents an invaluable tool for elucidating the underlying drivers of changes in CO₂ emissions.

The results of the extended LMDI decomposition analysis for the Czech Republic demonstrate the intricate interplay between multiple factors that contribute to fluctuations in CO₂ emissions. The effect of economic activity (GDP) on CO₂ emissions was found to be 5.2%, indicating that higher economic activity is associated with higher energy consumption and, consequently, higher emissions. Concurrently, enhancements in energy intensity—defined as a decline in the quantity of energy consumed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP)—resulted in a notable reduction in CO₂ emissions, amounting to 8.7%. A reduction in emissions of 6.3% was achieved as a result of changes in the fuel mix, which entailed a switch to less carbon-intensive energy sources. This indicates that the Czech Republic is making effective decarbonisation efforts. Furthermore, improvements in energy efficiency, namely the utilisation of more advanced technologies, reduced CO₂ emissions by 3.5%. This reflects the efficacy of modernisation policies in the energy sector. However, changes in the structure of the economic sector, such as the increasing share of energy-intensive industries, contributed to a 2.1% increase in emissions. This suggests the necessity for further transformation towards less energy-intensive industries.

A comprehensive LMDI per capita analysis for the Czech Republic was conducted utilising population data, thereby facilitating a more precise representation of the findings. The results of the LMDI decomposition demonstrate that an increase in GDP per capita has a positive impact on CO₂ emissions per capita; however, this impact is less pronounced than at nominal values (+3.8%). The continued reduction in energy intensity has had a significant effect on the reduction of CO₂ emissions per capita, with energy consumption per unit of GDP decreasing by 7.5%. The alteration in the fuel mix was a significant factor in the reduction of emissions, particularly due to the increasing proportion of cleaner energy sources, which contributed to a decline of 5.4%. The implementation of new technologies and procedures has led to an overall improvement in energy efficiency, which has subsequently resulted in a reduction in emissions (−3.0%). The sectoral structure exerted a comparatively limited influence on the Czech Republic’s per capita CO₂ emissions, with an impact that was smaller than in nominal terms (+1.8%).

The results of the extended LMDI decomposition analysis for Poland highlight significant factors influencing the country’s CO₂ emissions in the context of sustainable energy development. The expansion of the economy, as reflected in the impact of economic activity (GDP), was responsible for a 7.1% increase in CO₂ emissions. This greater effect than in the Czech Republic indicates that the Polish economy is more energy-intensive, which presents more significant decarbonisation challenges.

Significant progress has been made in Poland with regard to improvements in energy efficiency, as evidenced by an 11.2% reduction in CO₂ emissions resulting from a reduction in energy intensity, defined as energy consumption per unit of GDP. Furthermore, alterations in the fuel mix, including a transition towards less carbon-intensive energy sources, resulted in an 8.9% reduction in emissions. This represents a substantial stride towards decarbonisation, although challenges persist, particularly in light of Poland’s substantial reliance on coal. The utilisation of contemporary technologies to enhance energy efficiency has resulted in a further 5.4% reduction in CO₂ emissions, thereby substantiating the assertion that modernisation initiatives within the energy sector are achieving their anticipated outcomes. However, shifts in the structure of the economic sector, such as an increase in the proportion of energy-intensive industries, resulted in a 3.2% rise in emissions. This highlights the necessity for further diversification of the economy towards less energy-intensive sectors in order to maintain a trajectory of sustainable development.

A comprehensive LMDI per capita analysis for Poland was conducted utilising population data, thereby facilitating a more precise representation of the findings. The results of the LMDI decomposition demonstrate that the per capita effect is less pronounced than the nominal effect, indicating that Poland’s economic growth, when adjusted per unit of population, exerts a slightly diminished effect on CO₂ emissions in comparison to the findings suggested by the nominal results (+4.2%). Furthermore, the energy intensity effect diminished on a per capita basis, suggesting that the nominal enhancement in energy intensity was more pronounced on a per capita basis than on a per unit basis (−6.5%). The effect of fuel structure also diminished when converted on a per-population basis, indicating that fuel structure exerted a less pronounced impact on emissions per capita than at the nominal level (−5.2%). When analysed on a per capita basis, the effect of energy efficiency was found to have decreased, indicating that the improvements in energy efficiency were more pronounced in nominal figures than on a per capita basis (−2.9%). The effect of the sectoral structure is somewhat diminished when converted on a per capita basis, indicating that changes in Poland’s economic sectors had a relatively minor impact on per capita emissions compared to the results indicated by the nominal results (+1.6%).

In comparison to the Czech Republic, Poland demonstrates a somewhat more pronounced increase in CO₂ emissions per capita as a consequence of economic activity. This indicates that Poland’s economy is becoming increasingly emissions-intensive on a per capita basis, despite the fact that rising GDP per capita is contributing to emissions growth in both countries. The Czech Republic has demonstrated a more pronounced enhancement in energy intensity per capita in comparison to Poland. This indicates that the Czech Republic is reducing its energy consumption per unit of GDP in a more efficient manner, which in turn results in greater reductions in CO₂ emissions per capita. While Poland has also demonstrated improvements in energy intensity, these have been achieved to a lesser extent than in the Czech Republic. The two countries reported a comparable impact of fuel structure on the reduction of CO₂ emissions per capita. This indicates a transition in the energy mix towards cleaner energy sources in both countries, although the Czech Republic exhibits a slightly greater benefit from this effect, which may be attributed to the larger share of nuclear power in its energy mix. The effect of energy efficiency in both countries is strikingly similar. Both countries have implemented technological and procedural modifications that have enhanced the efficiency of their energy utilisation. However, the Czech Republic exhibits a marginally higher impact of this effect, which may be attributed to a higher degree of technological modernisation. In both countries, sectoral structure has contributed to an increase in CO₂ emissions per capita, but the effect is slightly more pronounced in the Czech Republic than in Poland. This suggests that in the Czech Republic there is a slightly higher share of energy-intensive industries that have an impact on emissions.

4. Discussion

The global energy transition, particularly in the context of decarbonisation, represents one of the most significant challenges currently facing the economy [45]. Research findings suggest that the objective of climate neutrality by 2050, as set out in the Paris [46] Agreement, will necessitate a comprehensive approach that encompasses modernisation of the energy sector, policy reforms and investment in renewable energy sources [47]. In particular, developing countries and those with a high proportion of fossil fuels in their energy mix are likely to encounter significant challenges in transitioning away from coal and oil [48].

The findings of the study indicated notable disparities in the energy and economic advancement of Poland and the Czech Republic between 2017 and 2021. This was evidenced by the trend analyses, Granger causality analysis, and LMDI decomposition conducted. Figure 1 illustrates a discernible decline in CO₂ emissions in Poland over the specified period, which can be attributed to the implementation of substantial investments in renewable energy sources (Figure 4 and Figure 5). The results of the Student’s t-test (

Table 1. Results of the t-test comparing key energy and emission variables between the Czech Republic and Poland (2017–2021).

Variable	T-Statistics	p-Value
Production-based CO2 emissions	−28.27	***
Production-based CO2 emissions per capita	−3.945	***
Total energy supply	−57.805	***
Energy intensity per capita	17.910	***
Renewable electricity generation	−4.579	***
Renewable energy supply	0.012	n.s.
Renewable energy public R&D budget	−3.830	***

Note: *** indicates statistical significance at the 1% level (p < 0.01). “n.s.” stands for “not significant”.

) corroborate the existence of statistically significant discrepancies between the two countries with regard to CO₂ emissions, thereby substantiating the hypothesis of divergent energy policies.

The results of the Granger causality analysis (

Table 2. Granger causality analysis results for key energy and economic variables in the Czech Republic (2017–2021).

Variable 1	Variable 2	Direction of Causality	F-Statystyka	p-Value
Renewable electricity generation	Real GDP per capita	$V1\to V2$	5.23	0.028
Real GDP per capita	Renewable electricity generation	$V2\to V1$	1.87	0.192
Renewable electricity generation	Production-based CO2 emissions	$V1\to V2$	4.76	0.041
Production-based CO2 emissions	Renewable electricity generation	$V2\to V1$	2.12	0.165
Energy intensity per capita	Real GDP per capita	$V1\to V2$	3.54	0.048
Real GDP per capita	Energy intensity per capita	$V2\to V1$	1.23	0.254
Total energy supply	Production-based CO2 emissions	$V1\to V2$	4.92	0.037
Production-based CO2 emissions	Total energy supply	$V2\to V1$	2.46	0.132

and

Table 3. Granger causality analysis results for key energy and economic variables in Poland (2017–2021).

Variable 1	Variable 2	Direction of Causality	F-Statystyka	p-Value
Renewable electricity generation	Real GDP per capita	$V1\to V2$	4.76	0.041
Real GDP per capita	Renewable electricity generation	$V2\to V1$	2.12	0.165
Renewable electricity generation	Production-based CO2 emissions	$V1\to V2$	3.98	0.052
Production-based CO2 emissions	Renewable electricity generation	$V2\to V1$	2.76	0.095
Energy intensity per capita	Real GDP per capita	$V1\to V2$	5.01	0.036
Real GDP per capita	Energy intensity per capita	$V2\to V1$	1.67	0.198
Total energy supply	Production-based CO2 emissions	$V1\to V2$	6.15	0.019
Production-based CO2 emissions	Total energy supply	$V2\to V1$	3.01	0.081

) indicate a statistically significant relationship between the development of renewable energy sources and GDP per capita growth in Poland. This suggests that investments in renewable energy sources can have a positive impact on economic development. In the Czech Republic, although the relationship is less clear, there is a noticeable trend towards economic growth with the development of renewable energy sources. However, the effects are more stable over time.

The LMDI decomposition (

Table 4. Decomposition of CO₂ emission changes by factors in the Czech Republic (2017–2021).

Activity Effect (GDP)	Energy Intensity Effect	Fuel Structure Effect	Energy Efficiency Effect	Sector Structure Effect
+5.2%	−8.7%	−6.3%	−3.5%	+2.1%

and

Table 5. Decomposition of CO₂ emission changes by factors in Poland (2017–2021).

Activity Effect (GDP)	Energy Intensity Effect	Fuel Structure Effect	Energy Efficiency Effect	Sector Structure Effect
+7.1%	−11.2%	−8.9%	−5.4%	+3.2%

) demonstrated that, in both countries, the primary factor contributing to the reduction in CO₂ emissions was enhanced energy intensity, with alterations in the fuel mix exerting the most significant influence in Poland. It is noteworthy that, while the Czech Republic placed a greater emphasis on enhancing energy efficiency, Poland augmented the proportion of renewable energy sources in its energy production, which had a favourable impact on emissions reductions.

Furthermore, there was an improvement in per capita energy intensity in both countries (Figure 3), but this was more pronounced in the Czech Republic, indicating more efficient management of per capita energy consumption. The results demonstrate that both economies are progressing towards energy sustainability, albeit at disparate rates and with varying priorities.

The discrepancies in the advancement of renewable energy sources between Poland and the Czech Republic can be attributed primarily to divergence in energy policies, regulatory frameworks, and the extent of investment in the energy sector.

In Poland, the energy policy in recent years has been characterised by a gradual shift away from coal, which has dominated its energy mix for decades. The government’s strategic approach, as exemplified by the Polish Energy Policy until 2040, is increasingly oriented towards the advancement of renewable energy sources, with a particular focus on wind power and photovoltaics [49]. Significant investment support is provided by EU funds, including the Just Transition Fund, which facilitates the acceleration of the energy transition in regions with the highest dependence on coal [50].

In contrast, the Czech Republic has also taken steps to increase its share of renewable energy sources, yet its energy policy is more conservative. It is based on increasing the share of nuclear power and continuing to use coal in the short term. Planned expansions of Czech nuclear power plants are seen as a key part of the strategy to achieve climate goals. The high share of nuclear power allows for stability of energy supply, which reduces the pressure for rapid development of renewable energy sources compared to Poland.

Despite Poland’s high dependence on coal, there has been a notable increase in the proportion of renewable energy sources in its energy mix, which represents a significant stride towards decarbonisation. These results corroborate the observations of the International Renewable Energy Agency, which notes that Poland, despite historically relying on carbon-intensive energy sources, has accelerated the development of the RES sector in recent years, which is pivotal to achieving long-term climate goals [51].

The Czech Republic, which has a more sustainable energy structure, nevertheless displays less momentum in this area, which may be attributed to less pressure for decarbonisation and a more stable economic structure. In its 2021 Czech Energy Policy Report, the OECD notes that the country continues to rely heavily on coal and that the pace of the energy transition is contingent upon the implementation of robust policy and investment measures, which are essential to achieve the 2030 targets [52].

An analysis of energy intensity has demonstrated that Poland has made considerable progress in reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP, which is consistent with the findings of the European Environment Agency [53]. In contrast, studies on energy efficiency in the Czech Republic indicate the necessity for further modernisation of industry and energy-intensive sectors, which would facilitate more efficient energy utilisation and additional reductions in emissions [54].

The impact of renewable energy sources on economic growth is also a significant topic of discussion in the academic literature. The Granger causality analysis conducted in this study confirms that an increase in the share of RES has a positive impact on GDP per capita in both countries. These findings are widely acknowledged in the literature, indicating the potential of RES as an engine for economic growth through job creation, technological advancement and reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels [55,56,57].

The LMDI decomposition analysis indicates that improvements in energy efficiency and alterations in the fuel mix are pivotal factors in reducing CO₂ emissions in both the Czech Republic and Poland. In Poland, continued reliance on coal presents a significant challenge that necessitates the intensification of decarbonisation efforts. The OECD has indicated that accelerating the development of renewable energy sources, especially through increased investment in wind and solar power, is essential to achieve long-term climate goals in both countries [58,59]. In comparison to the results of the nominal analysis, per capita analysis indicates that the Czech Republic was affected to a lesser extent by economic activity in terms of per capita CO₂ emissions than would be expected based on nominal values. This suggests that the country has achieved a higher level of energy efficiency per unit of GDP.

In the context of the research conducted on sustainable energy development in Poland and the Czech Republic, it is worth noting that the existing literature provides a comprehensive context that reinforces the significance of the results obtained. The ongoing research on energy transition in Central Europe indicates that Poland and the Czech Republic are confronted with significant challenges pertaining to the decarbonisation process and expansion of their share of RES [60]. A similar conclusion is reached in another study, which examined the impact of renewable energy development on economic growth. It was found that investments in renewable energy can stimulate GDP growth, which is in line with observations for Poland and the Czech Republic [61].

Furthermore, studies and analyses demonstrate the impact of diverse energy policy approaches on the attainment of sustainable development goals. Additionally, they underscore the significance of energy efficiency in curbing CO₂ emissions, a pivotal concern for both countries in the context of sustainable development [62,63,64].

It is also noteworthy to mention studies that assess the socio-economic impacts of RES development in Central Europe or the USA, which emphasise the significance of RES investments for long-term sustainability [65,66]. These studies are further supported by an analysis of energy efficiency using the LMDI method, which provides further evidence that energy modernisation is crucial for both countries [67].

Subsequent research that examines the impact of energy policies on sustainability, utilising the LMDI decomposition method, Granger analysis, and trend statistics, corroborates the assertion that intensifying efforts towards energy efficiency and renewable energy sources is pivotal for countries’ sustained energy development [68,69,70].

The introduction already indicates that it would be beneficial to consider the experiences of other countries. An analysis of the causal relationship between renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil reveals that expanding renewable energy would not only result in increased economic growth and reduced environmental deterioration but would also create an opportunity for Brazil to assume a leading role in the international system and enhance its competitiveness with more developed countries [71]. Slovakia emphasises the development of nuclear energy and has a distinctive mix of nuclear sources [72], while Germany promotes renewable energy sources primarily through its energy policy [73].

The aforementioned studies offer a comprehensive overview and substantiate the assertions presented in this article, emphasizing the necessity for additional investment. In conclusion, it is important to identify key areas for improvement in the energy policies of Poland and the Czech Republic:

• The Czech Republic exhibits a notable deficiency in investment capital allocated to renewable energy sources. While the Czech Republic is prioritising the stability of its energy supply through the development of nuclear energy, the low level of investment in renewable energy sources is impeding the accelerated development of the renewable sector. In order to achieve desired outcomes in terms of climate change, it is necessary to provide greater financial support and implement a more ambitious strategy for the development of renewable energy sources.
• The transition away from coal in Poland is occurring at an insufficient rate. Despite the considerable investment in renewable energy sources, Poland remains reliant on coal. It is imperative that the decarbonisation process be accelerated by reducing reliance on coal and accelerating the development of wind energy and photovoltaics.
• The issue of regulatory constraints is a significant obstacle to the advancement of renewable energy sources. In both countries, regulatory constraints continue to impede the development of the renewable energy sector. It is necessary to streamline administrative and regulatory procedures in order to facilitate the expeditious implementation of renewable energy projects.
• The lack of integration of renewable energy sources into the existing energy infrastructure represents a significant challenge. The development of transmission and distribution infrastructure capable of handling renewable energy remains a significant challenge. Investment is required in the development of infrastructure that is crucial for the effective integration of renewable energy into the power grids of both countries.

These issues highlight areas for improvement in the energy policies of Poland and the Czech Republic to better support the development of sustainable energy. Action in these key areas will contribute to meeting climate targets and reducing CO₂ emissions in both countries.

5. Conclusions

The paper presents an analysis and comparison of trends related to sustainable energy development in the Czech Republic and Poland, with a particular focus on key aspects such as CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, energy efficiency, and the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix. The objective of this study was to gain insight into the dynamics of these processes in both countries within the context of the pursuit of sustainable development, and to identify the principal factors influencing these changes.

The trend analysis demonstrated that both the Czech Republic and Poland have made notable advancements in reducing CO₂ emissions and increasing the share of RES in their respective energy production portfolios. However, the rate and extent of these changes varied between the countries. Despite higher levels of emissions and energy consumption, Poland demonstrated a more pronounced increase in the share of renewable energy sources, particularly between 2020 and 2021. This may be attributed to the intensification of policies promoting the development of renewable energy and the decline in energy demand from traditional sources resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The analysis revealed that the Czech Republic has a higher rate of CO₂ emissions per capita in comparison to Poland. Despite the Czech Republic’s more diverse energy mix, which includes a significant share of nuclear power, its per capita CO₂ emissions are higher. This may be due to the country’s smaller population and more energy-intensive economic sectors. Notwithstanding certain advances in energy efficiency and fuel mix, the Czech Republic continues to confront difficulties in reducing CO₂ emissions per capita.

Conversely, Poland exhibits lower CO₂ emissions per capita, despite facing greater challenges associated with its reliance on coal. Nevertheless, this does not indicate that the situation in Poland is satisfactory. This is predominantly attributable to the fact that a larger population results in emissions being distributed over a larger population base. It is evident that Poland must intensify its efforts towards sustainable energy development, particularly in regard to the increase of renewable energy sources and the further improvement of energy efficiency. This is essential for the effective reduction of CO₂ emissions.

While Poland has a lower CO₂ emissions per capita, the Czech Republic provides an exemplar of a country that is more effectively implementing structural changes in the energy sector. Further reforms in Poland, particularly in regard to the reduction of dependence on coal, could contribute to a greater reduction in emissions per capita.

The results of the Student’s t-test confirmed significant differences between the Czech Republic and Poland in terms of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and energy intensity per capita. The high statistical values for Poland indicate greater challenges in reducing emissions, especially in the context of a heavy reliance on coal as the country’s main energy source.

The results of the Granger causality analysis indicated that an increase in the proportion of renewable energy sources in the energy mix has a positive effect on GDP per capita growth in both countries. This indicates that investments in renewable energy sources not only facilitate sustainable development, but also provide a foundation for economic growth. Moreover, the analysis demonstrated that an increase in energy consumption is associated with an increase in CO₂ emissions, underscoring the necessity for continued efforts to enhance energy efficiency and facilitate energy transition.

Consequently, the extended LMDI decomposition analysis permitted a comprehensive identification of the factors responsible for fluctuations in CO₂ emissions. In the Czech Republic, improvements in energy intensity and alterations to the fuel mix were instrumental in reducing emissions despite economic expansion. In Poland, although progress has been made in energy efficiency and decarbonisation, the challenges posed by intensive economic growth and the large share of energy-intensive industries remain significant. In both the nominal and per capita analysis, improvements in energy efficiency and changes in the fuel mix play a pivotal role in reducing CO₂ emissions. However, the per capita analysis demonstrated that GDP growth exerts a comparatively lesser impact on emissions in the Czech Republic than in Poland.

The results of the analyses conducted corroborate the hypothesis, indicating that Poland, despite the more significant challenges posed by higher CO₂ emissions and more intensive energy consumption, is on a trajectory towards attaining the level of energy sustainability achieved by the Czech Republic. This is due to the dynamic investments in renewable energy sources and improved energy efficiency that have been made. This process, although still requiring further action, demonstrates that Poland is capable of effectively reducing emissions and increasing its share of renewable energy sources, which is crucial for its long-term energy development.

The findings of this study indicate the necessity for the implementation of targeted policy measures in Poland and the Czech Republic with the objective of accelerating the energy transition. The practical implications of this study include the recommendation of increased investment in the development of renewable energy sources infrastructure and the introduction of more flexible regulations to support the rapid deployment of innovative energy technologies. It is also recommended that both countries prioritise the elimination of regulatory and infrastructural barriers that may impede the development of renewable energy sources (RES). In particular, Poland, which has a higher dependence on fossil fuels, should intensify its efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions and achieve a level of sustainable energy development that is closer to that of the Czech Republic. Furthermore, it is necessary to create appropriate financial incentives for investors and support in the form of educational and advisory programmes to accelerate the development of the RES sector and improve energy efficiency.

The findings of these analyses are unequivocal: both countries must persist in and intensify their endeavours towards sustainable energy development, with each facing distinctive challenges. In the case of the Czech Republic, the key to achieving sustainable energy development will be to further increase energy efficiency and accelerate the development of RES. In the case of Poland, priorities remain the reduction of dependence on coal, the improvement of energy efficiency, and the restructuring of the economy towards less energy-intensive sectors. These results point to the need for the adaptation of energy policies to local circumstances so that both countries can successfully achieve their sustainable development goals while promoting economic growth and environmental protection.

The novelty of this research lies in its comprehensive comparison of Central European countries, which represents a valuable contribution to the existing literature on energy transition. In future studies, it would be beneficial to increase the number of indicators and to include a larger number of countries in the analysis. This would allow for a more comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of sustainable energy development and would enhance the relevance of the conclusions. However, even the results of this work can serve as a guide for policymakers regarding which aspects need to be strengthened in order to meet climate targets and reduce CO₂ emissions more effectively.