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Article

A Multi-Step Approach Framework for Freight Forecasting of River-Sea Direct Transport without Direct Historical Data

1
Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
2
College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(15), 4252; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11154252
Received: 4 July 2019 / Revised: 21 July 2019 / Accepted: 29 July 2019 / Published: 6 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Transportation)
The freight forecasting of river-sea direct transport (RSDT) is crucial for the policy making of river-sea transportation facilities and the decision-making of relevant port and shipping companies. This paper develops a multi-step approach framework for freight volume forecasting of RSDT in the case that direct historical data are not available. First, we collect publicly available shipping data, including ship traffic flow, speed limit of each navigation channel, free-flow running time, channel length, channel capacity, etc. The origin–destination (O–D) matrix estimation method is then used to obtain the matrix of historical freight volumes among all O–D pairs based on these data. Next, the future total freight volumes among these O–D pairs are forecasted by using the gray prediction model, and the sharing rate of RSDT is estimated by using the logit model. The freight volume of RSDT is thus determined. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated by forecasting the RSDT freight volume on a shipping route of China. View Full-Text
Keywords: river-sea direct transportation; O–D matrix estimation; logit model; gray prediction model river-sea direct transportation; O–D matrix estimation; logit model; gray prediction model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Guo, Z.; Le, W.; Wu, Y.; Wang, W. A Multi-Step Approach Framework for Freight Forecasting of River-Sea Direct Transport without Direct Historical Data. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4252. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11154252

AMA Style

Guo Z, Le W, Wu Y, Wang W. A Multi-Step Approach Framework for Freight Forecasting of River-Sea Direct Transport without Direct Historical Data. Sustainability. 2019; 11(15):4252. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11154252

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guo, Zhaoxia, Weiwei Le, Youkai Wu, and Wei Wang. 2019. "A Multi-Step Approach Framework for Freight Forecasting of River-Sea Direct Transport without Direct Historical Data" Sustainability 11, no. 15: 4252. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11154252

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