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Modelling Ranavirus Transmission in Populations of Common Frogs (Rana temporaria) in the United Kingdom

1
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Gordon State College, Barnesville, GA 30204, USA
2
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK
3
School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary, University of London, London E1 4NS, UK
4
School of Biological Sciences, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA 71272, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Viruses 2019, 11(6), 556; https://doi.org/10.3390/v11060556
Received: 10 April 2019 / Revised: 31 May 2019 / Accepted: 4 June 2019 / Published: 15 June 2019
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Abstract

Ranaviruses began emerging in common frogs (Rana temporaria) in the United Kingdom in the late 1980s and early 1990s, causing severe disease and declines in the populations of these animals. Herein, we explored the transmission dynamics of the ranavirus(es) present in common frog populations, in the context of a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model, using parameters derived from the literature. We explored the effects of disease-induced population decline on the dynamics of the ranavirus. We then extended the model to consider the infection dynamics in populations exposed to both ulcerative and hemorrhagic forms of the ranaviral disease. The preliminary investigation indicated the important interactions between the forms. When the ulcerative form was present in a population and the hemorrhagic form was later introduced, the hemorrhagic form of the disease needed to be highly contagious, to persist. We highlighted the areas where further research and experimental evidence is needed and hope that these models would act as a guide for further research into the amphibian disease dynamics. View Full-Text
Keywords: transmission modelling; susceptible-infected (SI) models; emerging infection; ranavirosis; Iridoviridae; disease dynamics transmission modelling; susceptible-infected (SI) models; emerging infection; ranavirosis; Iridoviridae; disease dynamics
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Duffus, A.L.; Garner, T.W.; Nichols, R.A.; Standridge, J.P.; Earl, J.E. Modelling Ranavirus Transmission in Populations of Common Frogs (Rana temporaria) in the United Kingdom. Viruses 2019, 11, 556.

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