Structure and Regeneration Differentiation of Coniferous Stand Groups in Representative Altay Montane Forests: Demographic Evidence from Dominant Boreal Conifers

With the intensification of global climate change and human activities, coniferous species as the main components of natural forests in the Altay Mountains are facing the challenges of aging and regeneration. This study systematically analyzed structural heterogeneity and regeneration of three coniferous stand groups, Larix sibirica Ledeb. stand group, Abies sibirica Ledeb.-Picea obovata Ledeb.-Larix sibirica mixed stand group, and Picea obovata stand group, respectively, across western, central, and eastern forest areas of the Altay Mountains in Northwest China based on field surveys in 2023. Methodologically, we integrated Kruskal–Wallis/Dunn’s post hoc tests, nonlinear power-law modeling (diameter at breast height (DBH)–age relationships, validated via R², root mean square error (RMSE), and F-tests), static life tables (age class mortality and survival curves), and dynamic indices. Key findings revealed structural divergence: the L. sibirica stand group exhibited dominance of large-diameter trees (>30 cm DBH) with sparse seedlings/saplings and limited regeneration; the mixed stand group was dominated by small DBH individuals (<10 cm), showing young age structures and vigorous regeneration; while the P. obovata stand group displayed uniform DBH/height distributions and slow regeneration capacity. Radial growth rates differed significantly—highest in the mixed stand group (average of 0.315 cm/a), intermediate in the P. obovata stand group (0.216 cm/a), and lowest in the L. sibirica stand group (0.180 cm/a). Age–density trends varied among stand groups: unimodal in the L. sibirica and P. obovata stand groups while declining in the mixed stand group. All stand groups followed a Deevey-II survival curve (constant mortality across ages). The mixed stand group showed the highest growth potential but maximum disturbance risk, the L. sibirica stand group exhibited complex variation with lowest risk probability, while the P. obovata stand group had weaker adaptive capacity. These results underscore the need for differentiated management: promoting L. sibirica regeneration via gap-based interventions, enhancing disturbance resistance in the mixed stand group through structural diversification, and prioritizing P. obovata conservation to maintain ecosystem stability. This multi-method framework bridges stand-scale heterogeneity with demographic mechanisms, offering actionable insights for climate-resilient forestry.