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Article

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Green Space by Considering Socioeconomic Impacts Based on A SD-CA Model

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School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Tsinghua East Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
2
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Tsinghua East Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Elisabetta Salvatori
Forests 2021, 12(2), 202; https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020202
Received: 25 December 2020 / Revised: 5 February 2021 / Accepted: 6 February 2021 / Published: 10 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Landscape and Urban Planning-Sustainable Forest Development)
Green space is an important part of composite urban spatial systems. Therefore, reasonable planning strategies based on scientifically sound predictions of temporal and spatial changes in green space are critical for maintaining urban ecological environments, ensuring the health of residents, and maintaining social stability. However, existing forecasting models discount the impacts of urban social economy on green space. To address this gap, we constructed a system dynamics and cellular automata (SD-CA) coupling model that integrated the socioeconomic system and generated multiple scenarios. The results showed that at the current pace of socioeconomic development, Beijing’s central district will experience an overall reduction in green space and a decline in its integrity and diversity by 2035. If the population of this area reaches 9.29 million by 2035 and the GDP maintains an average growth rate of 6.1%, the areas of various land types will exhibit little change by 2035, and green space will be optimized to a certain extent. However, if the study area’s population decreases to 8.59 million by 2035 and the average GDP growth rate drops to 4.9%, the fragmentation, connectivity, and diversity index of green space will all increase significantly by 2035, and green space will be clearly optimized. We propose scientifically grounded strategies for maximizing the ecological functions and economic benefits of green space through optimized green space patterns, considered from a policy-oriented perspective of promoting socioeconomic development. View Full-Text
Keywords: urban green space; system dynamics model; cellular automata model; coupling development; Beijing’s central district urban green space; system dynamics model; cellular automata model; coupling development; Beijing’s central district
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MDPI and ACS Style

Li, F.; Wang, R.; Lu, S.; Shao, M.; Ding, J.; Sun, Q. Spatiotemporal Simulation of Green Space by Considering Socioeconomic Impacts Based on A SD-CA Model. Forests 2021, 12, 202. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020202

AMA Style

Li F, Wang R, Lu S, Shao M, Ding J, Sun Q. Spatiotemporal Simulation of Green Space by Considering Socioeconomic Impacts Based on A SD-CA Model. Forests. 2021; 12(2):202. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020202

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li, Fangzheng, Rongfang Wang, Shasha Lu, Ming Shao, Jingyi Ding, and Qianxiang Sun. 2021. "Spatiotemporal Simulation of Green Space by Considering Socioeconomic Impacts Based on A SD-CA Model" Forests 12, no. 2: 202. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020202

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