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Open AccessArticle

Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach

1
Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1-A, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
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Faculty of science, Camperdown campus, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Sydney 2006, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2020, 13(4), 825; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13040825
Received: 2 January 2020 / Revised: 26 January 2020 / Accepted: 6 February 2020 / Published: 13 February 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessment of Energy–Environment–Economy Interrelations)
The industrial sector dominates the global energy consumption and carbon emissions in end use sectors, and it faces challenges in emission reductions to reach the Paris Agreement goals. This paper analyzes and quantifies the relationship between industrialization, energy systems, and carbon emissions. Firstly, it forecasts the global and regional industrialization trends under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway2 (SSP2) scenarios. Then, it projects the global and regional energy consumption that aligns with the industrialization trend, and optimizes the global energy supply system using the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) model for the industrial sector. Moreover, it develops an expanded Kaya identity to comprehensively investigate the drivers of industrial carbon emissions. In addition, it employs a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to track the historical contributions of various drivers of carbon emissions, as well as predictions into the future. This paper finds that economic development and population growth are the two largest drivers for historical industrial CO2 emissions, and that carbon intensity and industry energy intensity are the top two drivers for the decrease of future industrial CO2 emissions. Finally, it proposes three modes, i.e., clean supply, electrification, and energy efficiency for industrial emission reduction. View Full-Text
Keywords: industrialization; industrial CO2 emission; MESSAGE model; Kaya identity; LMDI approach industrialization; industrial CO2 emission; MESSAGE model; Kaya identity; LMDI approach
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Zhang, S.; Yang, F.; Liu, C.; Chen, X.; Tan, X.; Zhou, Y.; Guo, F.; Jiang, W. Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach. Energies 2020, 13, 825.

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