# A Cluster-Based Baseline Load Calculation Approach for Individual Industrial and Commercial Customer

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

## 2. The General Framework of Calculating CBL

## 3. Baseline Estimation Methods for Individual Customer

#### 3.1. Data-Mining Approach Based on Clustering Analysis

#### 3.2. CBL Calculation Methods

#### 3.2.1. Simple Average Model-High X of Y

#### 3.2.2. Simple Average Model-Middle X of Y

#### 3.2.3. Exponential Smoothing Model

#### 3.3. CBL Adjustment Method

#### 3.3.1. Multiplication Adjustment

#### 3.3.2. Addition Adjustment

#### 3.3.3. Linear Regression Adjustment

## 4. Empirical Tests

#### 4.1. Data Overview

#### 4.2. CBL Performance Metrics

#### 4.3. Clusters

#### 4.4. Experimental Settings

#### 4.4.1. Scenarios

- Type-1: Neither holiday nor weather sensitive.
- Type-2: Only weather sensitive.
- Type-3: Only holiday sensitive.
- Type-4: Both weather and holiday sensitive.

#### 4.4.2. Type of DR Event Day

#### 4.5. Baseline Estimation Results

#### 4.5.1. The Method for Each Type

#### 4.5.2. Comparative Analysis

## 5. Conclusions

- Extending the method to residential customers to determine the applicability of the proposed methods.
- Applying the methods to data datasets from other regions in the presence of a real DR program.
- More clustering algorithms can be applied to our method to test whether the performance of CBL can be improved from our quadratic clustering method.

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 1.**Relationship among predicted customer baseline load (CBL), actual load, and load reduction.

Type | Type-1 | Type-2 | Type-3 | Type-4 |
---|---|---|---|---|

Numbers | 215 | 37 | 34 | 14 |

Methods | Proposed Method | High X of Y | Middle X of Y | Exponential Smooth |
---|---|---|---|---|

Error (OPI) | 0.064 | 0.393 | 0.292 | 0.238 |

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## Share and Cite

**MDPI and ACS Style**

Song, T.; Li, Y.; Zhang, X.-P.; Li, J.; Wu, C.; Wu, Q.; Wang, B. A Cluster-Based Baseline Load Calculation Approach for Individual Industrial and Commercial Customer. *Energies* **2019**, *12*, 64.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en12010064

**AMA Style**

Song T, Li Y, Zhang X-P, Li J, Wu C, Wu Q, Wang B. A Cluster-Based Baseline Load Calculation Approach for Individual Industrial and Commercial Customer. *Energies*. 2019; 12(1):64.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en12010064

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Song, Tianli, Yang Li, Xiao-Ping Zhang, Jianing Li, Cong Wu, Qike Wu, and Beibei Wang. 2019. "A Cluster-Based Baseline Load Calculation Approach for Individual Industrial and Commercial Customer" *Energies* 12, no. 1: 64.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en12010064