In this section, first-stage decomposition results and second-stage decomposition results for each province were presented.
4.3. Geographic Homogeneity and Heterogeneity Analysis
In the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, the aim of which was to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, keeping global warming below 2 °C, the Chinese government submitted its climate action plan to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including peak emissions control, emission intensity reduction, and non-fossil fuels’ share increase. In order to achieve the nationwide goal, each province should also implement its emissions reduction and productivity improvement for a reasonable economic development mode and policy regulation. Geographic homogeneity and heterogeneity analysis is important for national and provincial policy makers to fight climate change to achieve this final goal.
In this section, the relationship between the economy and CO
2 emissions in the power industry, electric carbon productivity, and emission structure will be discussed in order to explore the targeted economic development mode for different provinces. The mean values of each indicator’s relative contribution (
,
, and
) are used as criteria for classifying categories. If the relative contribution value of one indicator is more than the average value of this factor, 1 is assigned to this province; otherwise, 0 is assigned. Then, the state vector for each province can be obtained, leading to different categories, as shown in
Appendix Table A4. The map of different provinces is painted accordingly with different colors, as shown as
Figure 1, to observe geographic homogeneity and heterogeneity. The geographic difference is analyzed based on
Appendix Table A6 and
Figure 1. The possible reasons for regional difference could be analyzed; they include status of economic development, industrial structure, low-fossil-fuel area and fossil-fuel-dominated area, power generation technology and environmental protection, and technology gap for different categories, among others.
Taking the first indicator (carbon emission change) as an example, if the relative contribution value of carbon emission change to the economic output is greater than the mean value of this factor, it means that the emission change effect is more obvious on the economy. Otherwise, if the relative contribution is smaller than the mean value, this factor has a relatively limited effect on economic output.
(1) Category A includes Jiangsu and Hubei provinces. The carbon emission change of these two provinces has a limited contribution to the economy, with 57.730% and 49.314%, respectively. The effect of electric carbon productivity and emission structure on economic output is 48.102%, −5.856% for Jiangsu and 47.488%, 2.917% for Hubei, respectively. These indicators can reflect the efficiency improvement in energy and electricity consumption, and also local governments’ efforts to curb CO2 emissions.
Jiangsu, a typical eastern-central coastal province, is the second-highest GDP province with 7738.828 billion Yuan in 2016. After years of industrial upgradation and structural reform, Jiangsu has shifted from a traditional manufacturing city that relies on labor and resources to a smart city focusing on intelligent manufacturing. From 2013 to 2016, the growth rate of the tertiary industry in Jiangsu Province was higher than that of the secondary industry. By 2016, the output value of the tertiary industry was close to 50%. Although it has a higher GDP with relatively high electricity consumption, high energy efficiency and reasonable industrial structures offers low CO2 emissions, resulting in lower and higher .
Hubei province in central China is located at the junction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the east to the west. Its GDP (3652.295 billion Yuan) in 2017 ranks second among the six provinces in central China and seventh among all provinces in China. Hubei’s economy focuses on the development of advanced and emerging manufacturing industries; promoting smarter networking and digitization of the manufacturing industry. Additionally, the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest hydroelectric power station in terms of installed capacity, is in this province. The province’s hydropower generation ranks third in China with 145.92 billion kWh in 2017. It is a key factor helping improve the electric carbon productivity in the province.
(2) Tianjin, Jilin, Hunan, Guizhou belong to Category B. Similar to Category A, the provinces in Category B show relative a lower contribution of carbon emission change to the economy with value of 53.557%, 58.286%, 51.420%, and 44.873%, respectively. The reasons for a low for Tianjin, Jilin, and Hunan are similar to that of Jiangsu and Hubei, with relatively high economic output and electricity consumption, but higher efficiency. The establishment of Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA), is home to industrial clusters with distinct advantages of secondary and tertiary industries. Industrial clusters are taking shape in the processing, manufacturing and service industries with high efficiency and productivity, which has a great influence on the change of Tianjin’s development mode.
On the other hand, Guizhou needs to be viewed as a different group. Guizhou’s economy ranked 25th out of 30 Chinese provinces with 1177.7 billion Yuan in 2016. The proportion of primary, secondary, and tertiary industry is 15.17%, 40.17%, and 44.66%, respectively. Electric-power generation is the main pillar of Guizhou’s economy. Although most electricity is generated from coal-fired thermal plants, the province’s abundant water resources have been used to develop a number of hydroelectric facilities. The main characteristics of Guizhou are low-level economic development without a heavy industry pillar, limited energy consumption with lower efficiency, and abundant hydroelectric power generation.
For the second-stage decomposition, the contribution of electricity-economic productivity to the economy is 36.439%, 49.515%, 35.666%, and 35.472% respectively. is also an efficiency index, showing a reasonable industrial structure and high-efficiency for industries. The contribution of generation carbon efficiency to the economy of these provinces is 12.821%, 20.234%, 21.321% and 28.570%, respectively, which is lower than the average value. As for , Tianjin and Hunan belong to the electricity importing regions; while Jilin and Guizhou belong to the electricity exporting regions. The relative contribution of is 22.5%, 6.054%, 12.492%, and 0.78%, respectively. If the value of in 2015 was larger than that of 2005, and have a positive value. For electricity importing regions (Tianjin and Hunan), it means a larger gap between electric power generation and electricity consumption. For electricity exporting regions (Jilin and Guizhou), it means a proportion of delivered electricity to local total electric power generation decreased; in other words, local electricity consumption to total power generation increased.
(3) Shandong, Zhejiang, Gansu and Xinjiang are classified as Category C. Shandong and Zhejiang should be considered as one group; while Gansu and Xinjiang should be grouped separately. In the same category, the common characteristic of these provinces is that the relative contribution of emission to economy is higher than the average value with 62.852%, 68.446%, 61.491%, and 68.972%, respectively. However, the relative contribution of electric carbon productivity to economy is lower than the average value with 20.227%, 37.041%, 32.822% and −92.434%, respectively. For second-stage decomposition, the relative contributions of , , and to economic output (written as , and ) for these four provinces are −62.806%, 11.022%, 16.055%, −130.256%; 63.201%, 5.456%, −9.180%, −17.601; 15.875%, 20.850%, 25.947%, 46.241%, respectively.
Shandong and Zhejiang are two rich provinces in China’s coastal regions, with GDP of 6802.4 billion Yuan and 4725.1 billion Yuan in 2016. Higher economic output resulted in higher energy, especially electricity consumption, and even more emissions. In addition, the tertiary industry proportion of Zhejiang and Shandong was 48.0% and 52.7%, respectively, in 2017, which is higher than that of the secondary industry. The steady adjustment of industrial structure and relatively reasonable power generation structure made a relatively lower contribution of and to the economy of these two provinces.
Gansu and Xinjiang are two western parts in China with relative lagging economic development. With China’s Western Development Strategy, these two provinces could consume more energy and electricity to boost their economic development. Gansu and Xinjiang are primary provinces for wind power development, with installed capacity of 12.77 million kWh and 17.76 million kWh, respectively. Furthermore, the hydroelectric power generation for Gansu and Xinjiang ranks 9th and 11th in China with 28.62 billion kWh and 20.40 billion kWh. These two situations offer a steady value of electric carbon productivity and electricity-economic productivity, which are lower than average contribution rates.
Additionally, Zhejiang and Shandong are electricity importing regions, while Gansu and Xinjiang are electricity exporting regions. The values of are positive for Zhejiang, Shandong, and negative for Gansu and Xinjiang. This means that the average growth rate of electricity consumption is lower than the average growth rate of power generation for Zhejiang and Shandong, which might result in a larger electricity gap in the future. It is the opposite situation for Gansu and Xinjiang, which means more generated electricity would be delivered.
(4) Category D includes Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Jiangxi, Fujian, Chongqing, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Hainan, Qinghai, and Guangxi, based on first-stage decomposition. For second-stage decomposition, three sub-groups are divided to differentiate the in-depth heterogeneity.
The relative contribution of carbon emission change and electric carbon productivity change to the economy (written as
,
) are lower than the corresponding average value. The contribution of emission structure to economic output
is higher than the average value. These provinces are sub-divided into three groups according to the second-stage decomposition results in
Appendix Table A5. Group one includes Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Jiangxi. Group two includes Fujian, Chongqing, Shaanxi, and Ningxia. Hainan, Qinghai, and Guangxi are regarded as Group 3.
For Group 1, although significant economic development has been made in these three provinces, similar economic output and steady energy consumption has resulted in a lower contribution of CO2 emission to the economy. The proportion of the secondary industry in these regions was 48.7%, 48.1%, and 47.7%, respectively, in 2016, which is higher than the tertiary proportion (42.5%, 41.3%, and 42.0%). In addition, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Jiangxi belong to natural resources-based regions dominated by heavy industries, which results in lower energy efficiency and lower electric carbon productivity. The contribution of emission structures to the economy is higher than the average value, which affirms industrial structure adjustment effect and local government efforts for environmental policy implementation. As for the power industry, the values of , , are −10.265%, 7.576%, 9.105%; −8.412%, −12.406%, −1.063%; 11.964%, 15.925%, and 20.993%, respectively. For example, Inner Mongolia with the largest wind power production capacity, is an important power generation supply base that transfers electricity to other provinces in China. However, due to wind instability, wind generation is bundled with the support of conventional thermal power generation. The contribution of electricity-economic productivity and generation carbon efficiency is lower than average values, which indicates that it is challenging for these three provinces to implement industrial structure adjustment and power generation efficiency improvement.
For Group 2, the contribution of electricity-economic productivity to the economic output () for these provinces is 17.438%, 24.397%, 30.114%, and 16.43, respectively; the value of is 15.735%, 27.434%, −3.606%, and 19.804%, respectively. It shows that satisfactory improvement has been made for industrial structure adjustment and electricity consumption efficiency for the end user; however, further improvement for generation carbon efficiency is needed. In this group, Ningxia is considered a special province. In 2005, Ningxia was an electricity-importing region with 30.288 billion kWh generation and 28.763 billion kWh electricity consumption. However, in 2015, Ningxia’s electricity generation reached 116.6 billion kWh, surpassing its consumption (87.83 billion kWh) and essentially becoming a typical electricity exporting region. It is a less-developed province in the northwest, but with a well-developed wind-power and solar-power industry of 15.5 billion kWh and 7.6 billion kWh, respectively, which accounts for 11% and 5% of the total power generation. The coal industry is one of the pillar industries of Ningxia, accounting for more than 90% of its energy. The province now has a national largescale coal base, a coal chemical industry base, and a ‘West-East Power Transmission’ thermal power base. In the future, possible economic development will be based on the improvement of electric carbon productivity and generation carbon efficiency.
For Group 3, the values of , , are −10.475%, 3.198%, and 16.272%; 10.828%, 14.653%, and −11.561%; 3.017%, 28.857%, and 40.229%, respectively. The main characteristics of these provinces are a relatively low economic development and electricity (energy) consumption. Hainan is a typical region with the largest share of primary sector in its GDP and a high proportion of tertiary industry. The power generation amount is basically equal to electricity consumption. Its future models focus on tertiary development based on renewable energy generation. However, for Qinghai and Guangxi, the secondary proportion to regional GDP was 48.6% and 45.1% in 2017. These two provinces are rich in natural resources, which has a great influence on shaping the industry structure. As for the power industry, Guangxi maximizes the use of its water resources for hydro power generation; while Qinghai makes efforts in wind power generation and power transmission lines construction for the West-East Electricity Transfer Project. Future development would be an efficiency-improvement based economic model with renewable energy generation adjustment and electric lines construction.
(5) Category E includes Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Sichuan, Yunnan, Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Henan. The main feature for this category is the obvious emissions effect and productivity effect on economy. Based on the first-stage and second-stage decomposition results, these provinces are sub-divided into four groups, representing possible future differentiated development modes.
Beijing and Shanghai belong to the same group. These two provinces’ economy ranks among the most developed and prosperous cities in China with tertiary proportion as high as 80.6% and 69.8%, respectively. These two provinces are electricity importing regions with high economic development. The contribution of electricity-economic productivity to economic output is 44.467% and 42.59%, respectively, which is higher than the average values. This means that these two provinces have tried to improve electricity-carbon productivity and clean generation. Beijing has shut down all coal-fired power plants to realize renewable energy generation in 2018 and increase the proportion of imported electricity energy. Shanghai’s coal-fired Waigaoqiao No. 3 Power Plant is being championed as a model of high efficiency. The future economic development mode focuses on the modern services sector and high-tech industries by relying on imported-electricity support.
It is reasonable to classify Guangdong, Liaoning, and Shanxi into one group. The reasons are as follows. The values of , and for these four provinces are 22.142%, 41.441%, and 25.394%; 49.381%, −1.107%, and −2.831%; 21.050%, 33.486%, and 26.892%, respectively. The tertiary proportion of these regions is 52.6%, 51.6% and 55.7%, respectively, higher than the secondary industry proportion with 42.8%, 39.3% and 39.3%, respectively. Shanxi, the most important coal supply base in China, has started closing down small coal mines since 2000, which could lead to different development modes due to adjustment of the coal industry. Guangdong is a typical electricity-importing region, dominated by thermal power generation for its heavy, new and high technology industries. Shanxi plays an important role as a long-distance provider of electricity; it supplies coal to local thermal power plants for generation and transmits electricity to other parts of the country through ultra-high voltage transmission lines. Ningxia is still one of the major bases of coal mining and thermal power generation in northern China with a relative low-level economy. Therefore, future development for this group lies in sustainable development, based on the improvement of electricity-economic productivity and generation carbon efficiency.
As for Hebei and Henan, heavy industry dominated regions, the proportion of the secondary industry is 47.6% for these two regions, compared with the tertiary proportion of 41.5% and 41.8%. Due to the coal-dominated energy system, thermal power generation accounted for 90.53% and 95.15% of the total generation in 2015, respectively. Therefore, considering the lower productivity and efficiency, future development for these two regions should be sustainable and green with optimization of industrial and energy structures, and improvement in electricity-economic productivity and power generation efficiency. Hebei province, an integral part of the Jing-Jin-Ji (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) Economic Zone, plays a vital role in Beijing’s green economic development.
Heilongjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan belong to one group, because a main characteristic of all three is the certain proportion of primary industry with 17.4%, 12%, and 15.1%, respectively; and a higher proportion of tertiary industry with 54.0%, 45.4%, and 45.1%, respectively, compared with 28.6%, 42.6%, and 39.8% for secondary industry proportion in 2016. The contribution of generation carbon efficiency to the economy is 38.598%, 39.376%, and 15.273%, which is higher than the average value. In Yunnan and Sichuan, hydroelectric power generation dominated the power industry with its water resources. Thus, future development emphasis for these regions should be urbanization and sustainable economic development based on green power generation.