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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15(4), 604; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15040604

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

1
School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
3
Ocean Development Research Institute, Major Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 December 2017 / Revised: 22 February 2018 / Accepted: 28 February 2018 / Published: 27 March 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decision Models in Green Growth and Sustainable Development)
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Abstract

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. View Full-Text
Keywords: storm surge disaster; loss evaluation; grade classification; econometric model groups; support vector machines storm surge disaster; loss evaluation; grade classification; econometric model groups; support vector machines
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Jin, X.; Shi, X.; Gao, J.; Xu, T.; Yin, K. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 604.

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