Search Results (1,265)

Exploring the interaction relationship among multiple ecosystem services is vital for maintaining ecosystem function. However, traditional approaches are limited in their ability to: (i) characterize complex interactions and (ii) visualize the spatial connectivity of various ecosystem services delivered by social–ecological systems. To address these challenges, a framework for constructing spatial networks of multiple ecosystem services was proposed. The framework is implemented by: (i) estimating the spatial distribution of multiple ecosystem services using the InVEST model, and (ii) generating network nodes and edges with geographical attributes based on the minimum cumulative resistance model and a multiresolution segmentation method. We conducted a case study in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area and examined the topological features of the spatial networks using complex network indicators. For each network, winding and multiple edges connected adjacent nodes and formed continuous linkages across the entire study area, indicating that the proposed framework is feasible for capturing the spatial connectivity of multiple ecosystem services. The different ecosystem service networks exhibited conspicuous spatial heterogeneity and generally maintained relatively high connectivity, as evidenced by their tree-like structure with winding pathways and the distribution of multi-edge nodes, indicating that each ES was predominantly connected with multiple other ecosystem services. Meanwhile, nodes with high values of degree centrality and clustering coefficient were mainly concentrated in coastal and mountainous regions. This study advances the representation of complex interactions among multiple ecosystem services from a spatial perspective, thereby facilitating a deeper understanding of the interaction mechanisms underlying ecosystem functioning. Full article

The water–energy–food (WEF) system acts as a critical nexus of social–ecological systems. However, rapid urbanization has intensified the regional imbalance in the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs). Clarifying the spatiotemporal matching of ecosystem services supply and demand (ESSD) within the WEF framework and revealing the driving mechanisms behind such imbalances are essential to formulating reasonable zoning schemes and targeted optimization strategies for the coordinated development of the regional WEF system. Taking Zhejiang Province as a case study, this research uses water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), and grain production (GP) to characterize the WEF nexus system. It uses the InVEST model to assess WY and CS, applies spatial allocation methods to characterize GP, and integrates socioeconomic data to quantify the demand for the above three ESs. All indicators were standardized and integrated with equal weights to further clarify the comprehensive levels of ESSD. By integrating the Geodetector and K-Means clustering methods, the study analyzes the supply–demand matching of ecosystem services and its driving mechanisms in Zhejiang Province during this period, thereby exploring ecological management zoning and optimization strategies within the WEF system. The study findings indicate that: (1) From the supply perspective, Zhejiang Province’s WY services demonstrate a trend of elevated activity in the southwest and diminished presence in the northeast; high values for CS services are predominantly found in the vegetation-rich areas of the northwest, while high values for GP services are clustered in the northern Zhejiang Plain; from the demand perspective, high values for all three ESs in Zhejiang Province are primarily located in economically active, densely populated urban areas. (2) The correlation between ESSD within Zhejiang Province’s WEF system exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity and is driven by the combined effects of natural and socioeconomic factors, with the interaction between these two factors often producing a synergistic effect. Specifically, annual average precipitation and population density are the dominant factors influencing WY services, NDVI and human footprint are the dominant factors influencing CS services, and population density and GDP are the dominant factors influencing GP services. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the supply–demand ratio for comprehensive ESs in Zhejiang Province generally followed a pattern of being lower in the east and higher in the west. The supply–demand imbalance of ESs intensified in the core areas of eastern cities, whereas the western regions maintained a relatively sound supply–demand balance. (4) The study classifies the counties in Zhejiang Province into four ecological management zones—ecological stable zones, ecological conservation zones, ecological control zones, and ecological restoration zones—and explores differentiated approaches to optimizing these zones and implementing control strategies. Full article

Understanding trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) along environmental gradients is crucial for sustainable oasis management. This study investigated four key ESs—carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil conservation (SC)—in three typical oases along water–heat gradients in arid northwestern China. The InVEST model was used to quantify ESs in 1990, 2005, and 2022, and Pearson correlation, geographically weighted regression, K-means clustering, and random forest models were applied to analyze service relationships, ecosystem service bundles (ESBs), and driving factors. The results showed that CS and HQ maintained strong synergies, while the WY–SC relationship shifted from weak trade-offs under drier conditions to stronger synergies under more favorable water–heat conditions. Geographically weighted regression revealed spatial heterogeneity and directional asymmetry in ES relationships. Four ESB types were identified: ecologically fragile zones, ecological transition or buffer zones, agricultural production zones, and core ecological source zones. Driving-factor analysis indicated that vegetation-related services were mainly associated with land-cover structure and vegetation growth, whereas hydrological and erosion-related services were more closely linked to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, temperature, and topography. These findings support differentiated oasis management through ecological restoration, development regulation, water-saving agriculture, and strict ecological protection. Full article

Unsustainable land-use transitions in peri-urban watersheds threaten both food security and ecological integrity. While Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models for ecosystem service (ES) assessment are commonly integrated, limited studies have simultaneously (i) accounted for multiple real-world spatial policies (e.g., ecological redlines) as hard constraints, (ii) targeted a comprehensive suite of ESs, and (iii) explicitly pursued synergies without relying on large-scale land conversion. To address these gaps, we developed a spatially explicit framework that integrates the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate four land-use scenarios and assess six ESs—grain yield, water yield, nitrogen export, phosphorus export, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration—in the Yuqiao Reservoir watershed, China, during 1990–2030. Against a backdrop of historical declines in cropland/grassland and key ESs due to construction expansion (1990–2020), the novel Comprehensive Development scenario—implementing slope-adaptive management and riparian buffers—synergistically increases grain yield (+0.55%) and carbon sequestration (+1.10%) while drastically reducing phosphorus export (−10.86%). It demonstrates that synergistic gains can arise from strategic spatial reconfiguration within a stable land-use area, advancing a paradigm from area-centric to configuration-centric optimization. This provides a quantifiable methodological basis and actionable policy reference for land spatial optimization in similar water-source watersheds. Full article

Background: Pathogenic germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants cause most hereditary breast and ovarian cancers. Widespread genetic testing has revealed thousands of variants with unknown effects on disease risk, known as variants of uncertain significance (VUS). BRCA VUS, the majority of which are missense, complicate genetic test interpretation and clinical decision-making. This study aimed to evaluate BRCA1 VUS pathogenicity with enhanced accuracy through computational, functional and structural methods. Methods: We characterized the structural distribution of BRCA1 variants. In silico tools scored known consequence variants within a specific region of BRCA1. The Molecular Feature Selection Tool (MolecularFeaST; Renwick Lab at Queen’s University; Kingston, ON, Canada) performed feature selection of the most discriminative tools. MATLAB (MATLAB R2024a; Mathworks; Natick, MA, USA) Classification Learner Application trained supervised machine learning models using combinations of the most accurate tools; the best model assigned pathogenicity prediction scores to VUS. Select VUS were functionally assessed through phosphopeptide binding pull-down assays and structurally analyzed on PyMOL (v2.4.1; Schrödinger Inc.; New York, NY, USA). Results: The RING and BRCT domains were identified as hotspots for missense pathogenic variants and VUS; BRCT was selected as the focus of the computational classifier. Nine in silico tools (CADD hg19, MetaRNN, ClinPred, VEST4, BayesDel AD, EVE, Eigen PC, gMVP and PolyPhen2) defined the BRCT-specific missense variant classifier. Twenty-two VUS (R1699P, F1704S, W1837L, W1712G, F1734S, V1804A, I1674V, V1804L, V1804I, I1807V, T1675S, I1764L, N1774I, E1698K, Q1848K, P1749S, A1669T, N1774H, L1839V, T1658I, L1705I, V1654L) demonstrated varying phosphopeptide binding ability and protein levels relative to the wildtype. Computational structural modeling contextualized VUS phosphopeptide interactions and structural implications. Conclusions: We provide in silico and functional evidence for the classification of BRCA1 BRCT VUS and highlight the utility of domain-specific computational approaches for characterizing missense variants in multi-domain genes. Full article

Arid regions are ecologically fragile and occupy a substantial portion of the global terrestrial surface. In these regions, ecosystem services (ESs) are strongly constrained by water availability and, more importantly, by the balance between water supply and demand. However, the nonlinear responses and threshold mechanisms linking water supply–demand balance to ES dynamics remain unclear. Taking the Kubuqi Desert in the “Great Bend” of the Yellow River as the study area, this study quantified the Comprehensive Ecosystem Service Index (CESI) and the Water Supply–Demand Ratio (WSDR) by integrating the InVEST model, RWEQ model, the RUSLE model, Water Balance Method, and so on. The dual-constraint line method and elasticity coefficient approach were integrated to identify the constraint effects and critical thresholds of WSDR on CESI. Ecological management zones were further delineated by integrating the inflection-point intervals of the dual-constraint lines with the threshold intervals identified by elasticity coefficients. The results showed that CESI remained relatively low, with a maximum value of approximately 0.5, suggesting that the overall ES level was still limited, but exhibited a continuous increasing trend. The regional water supply–demand pattern gradually shifted from deficit toward relative balance, although agricultural water use still accounted for about three-quarters of total consumption. CESI showed a nonlinear threshold response to WSDR: mild water deficit suppressed CESI growth, whereas moderate water surplus promoted CESI recovery by alleviating water constraints and improving ecosystem functioning. Thresholds identified by elasticity coefficients mainly occurred near critical transitions between water deficit and surplus. Based on ES supply and threshold sensitivity, nine ecological management zones were identified, with priority enhancement areas accounting for approximately 75%. These findings provide a threshold-based basis for ecological zoning and differentiated restoration in arid regions. Full article

Rapid urbanization and climate change are exerting unprecedented pressure on regional water resources, particularly in emerging megacities. This study examines the Xiong’an New Area (XNA) in the water-stressed North China Plain, where high-intensity urbanization coincides with rigorous ecological restoration mandates. To overcome the limitations of single-model assessments, a coupled SD–PLUS–InVEST framework was developed, integrating System Dynamics for socio-economic and policy drivers, Patch-Generating Land-Use Simulation for fine-scale urban expansion, and InVEST for hydrological process assessment. Projecting spatiotemporal water dynamics to 2035 under three Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), results reveal that urbanization-driven water demand growth consistently outpaces climate-induced supply gains. While precipitation increases are projected to raise water yield by 8.91–19.58% by 2035, demand surges by up to ~26% under the extensive expansion scenario (SSP5–8.5), driven predominantly by impervious surface proliferation. External water transfers are projected to sustain 40–45% of total supply by 2035, yet this dependency introduces systemic vulnerabilities. Quantitative assessment further indicates severe spatiotemporal mismatches, with Seasonal Water Shortage Rates of 26.1–27.3% and a Spatial Mismatch Index rising from 0.44 to 0.98. These findings indicate that climate-driven precipitation increments alone cannot offset water deficits induced by unregulated urban sprawl, and that integrating strategic land-use planning, resilient infrastructure, and adaptive governance is essential for water security in rapidly developing regions. Full article

Urban expansion is a major anthropogenic driver of ecosystem service degradation, and its effects differ significantly among expansion patterns and city types. This study selects Jinan, a megacity in Shandong Province, and Dongying, a resource-based city, as study areas. Based on 2000–2020 land cover data, we identified the key urban expansion patterns that lead to ecosystem service losses. We used a built-up land source matrix to analyze the land composition of newly developed built-up areas and adopted the Landscape Expansion Index (LEI) to classify urban expansion into three types: edge-expansion, infilling, and leapfrog expansion. We quantified losses of five core ecosystem services—carbon sequestration, water yield, food production, habitat quality, and soil retention—to identify which expansion pattern exerted the most significant impact on ecosystem service degradation. We further compared loss differences and underlying mechanisms to propose differentiated urban strategies. The results indicate that cultivated land was the primary source in Jinan, while Dongying’s sources were more diverse. Edge-expansion dominated both cities, with a higher proportion in Dongying. Jinan showed a greater increase in leapfrog expansion, and infilling expansion was limited. Leapfrog expansion caused the most severe losses for most services, while edge-expansion dominated food production loss via farmland occupation. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing spatial development and coordinating urban expansion with ecological conservation. Full article

As urban heat stress intensifies under rapid urbanization and climate change, urban parks are increasingly recognized as critical cooling infrastructure. However, conventional urban park planning has often emphasized the quantitative provision or spatially balanced distribution of parks, with limited attention to whether vulnerable populations can access parks with stronger cooling performance under spatial and mobility constraints. This issue is particularly important in aging societies, where older adults face greater heat vulnerability and more restricted walking mobility. This study proposes a decision-support framework that integrates park cooling performance, accessibility, and spatial equity assessment for age-sensitive urban green space planning. Using Seongnam City, South Korea, as a case study, park-level cooling performance was estimated using the InVEST Urban Cooling Model and incorporated into a Gaussian Two-Step Floating Catchment Area model. Focusing on older adults, with the working-age population as a comparative reference, the study assessed cooling-weighted park accessibility across multiple spatial scales. The results show that older adults experience lower and more unequal accessibility than the working-age population. In the Northern Living Zone, older-adult accessibility was only 35.2% of the Central Living Zone value, and 59.5% of older adults were exposed to low-accessibility hotspots. The framework provides practical evidence for prioritizing park provision, cooling-function enhancement, and heat-resilient pedestrian improvements. Full article

Due to global change and the associated increase in climate hazards, the study of ecosystem services and their potential to reduce disaster risk has gained relevance in recent years. However, access to ecosystem services is not evenly distributed, leading to environmental injustice. Currently, there is no commonly accepted approach to simultaneously integrate ecosystem services and environmental justice into the risk assessment equation (risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability). In this study, a framework was developed that integrates ecosystem service assessment into the vulnerability component using InVEST models, which was applied to the case study of Valencia, Spain. The approach applied here not only allowed visualising risk reduction through ecosystem services but also identified a robust synergy between heatwave and flood mitigation as well as mismatches between socioeconomic vulnerability and ecosystem service provision, with foreign residents being at a disadvantage in Valencia. The practical application of this framework in urban planning was shown by comparing the results of the risk assessment of the existing land use conditions with three hypothetical future scenarios. The results support the current municipal ambitions of urban greening in Valencia, while highlighting the need to consider socioeconomic vulnerability in decision-making. Full article

Agricultural watersheds must simultaneously support multiple Ecosystem Services (ESs), yet the coordination between Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) growth and synergies of ESs remains poorly understood. Taking the Liaohe River mainstream Basin (LRMB), a typical agricultural watershed, as a case, this study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV and trade-offs among ESs, along with their driving factors. Five key ESs—Food Production (FP), Water Conservation (WC), Water Purification (WP), Soil Conservation (SC), and Landscape Aesthetics (LA)—were selected. The InVEST model, Function-based Valuation Method, Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD), and Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) were comprehensively applied to assess the spatiotemporal variations in ESV, trade-off intensity, and their coupling coordination degree in the watershed from 2000 to 2023. Furthermore, the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression with Spatial Auto-correlation (MGWR-SAR) were employed to explore the driving mechanisms underlying changes in ESV and trade-off intensity, and to identify the major driving factors and their spatial heterogeneity. The results reveal the following: (1) From 2000 to 2023, total ESV in the LRMB increased by 69.5% from 77.66 to 131.59 billion yuan, with WC and FP accounting for 42.8% and 41.9% of this growth. Spatially, ESV shifted from a west-to-east increasing gradient to a U-shaped pattern, with high values concentrated in mountainous areas and low values along the mainstream. (2) Mean trade-off intensity remained stable at approximately 0.29, yet exhibited pronounced spatial polarisation. High trade-off zones shifted from the southwestern estuary toward the mainstream corridor, driven primarily by intensifying conflicts between FP and other ESs. (3) Despite a stable watershed-average CCD of 0.71–0.73, the CCD along the Liaohe River mainstream declined by over 15%, forming a corridor of coordination decay and revealing that ESV growth occurs at the expense of internal synergy. (4) Nonlinear interactions dominated ES dynamics, with the interaction of precipitation and human disturbance intensity exhibiting the highest explanatory power (q-values of 0.61 for ESV and 0.58 for RMSD). (5) Natural climatic factors (precipitation, temperature) predominantly enhanced synergy in mountainous areas, whereas human and landscape factors (human disturbance intensity, Shannon’s Diversity Index, PLAND of water) intensified trade-offs along the mainstream and central plains. This study establishes an integrated “ESV–trade-off–CCD” diagnostic framework and proposes a differentiated management strategy, offering a potentially transferable paradigm for sustainable governance in agricultural watersheds. Full article

The Qinghai Lake Basin represents a critical ecological security barrier in the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Water yield and carbon storage within this basin are closely linked to regional ecological security and sustainable development. To investigate their spatiotemporal patterns, influencing factors, and spatial interrelationships from 1995 to 2020, this study integrated the InVEST model, the Optimal Parameter Geodetector model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results indicate that water yield exhibited a fluctuating yet generally increasing trend over the study period, rising from 1.42 × 10⁹ m³ to 1.97 × 10⁹ m³. High water yield values were predominantly concentrated in high-altitude headwater areas, whereas low values mainly occurred in the lake area and its surroundings. Elevation, annual mean temperature, and precipitation were identified as the primary drivers of water yield. Carbon storage increased from 1.76 × 10⁸ t in 1995 to 2.14 × 10⁸ t in 2020. High carbon storage values were mainly concentrated in grassland and forested areas, while low values were largely distributed in built-up land, unused land, and the lake area. Elevation, NDVI, and water yield emerged as the main influencing factors of carbon storage. A significant positive spatial correlation was observed between water yield and carbon storage. Persistent patterns of high-carbon-storage–high-water-yield clusters and low-carbon-storage–low-water-yield clusters demonstrate a clear spatial synergy. These findings provide scientific support for ecological conservation, water resource management, and carbon sink enhancement in the Qinghai Lake Basin and are of practical significance for sustaining regional ecosystem services and safeguarding sustainability. Full article

Blue-green spaces are critical for diversified landscape planning. However, rapid urbanization and habitat fragmentation continue to disrupt ecological connectivity in river-basin landscapes. This study focuses on the Xiu River Basin, a major tributary of Poyang Lake and a key node of the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. We developed a multi-guild avian ecological network framework to support biodiversity-oriented landscape planning. Birds were classified into four functional guilds: aquatic resident, aquatic wintering, forest resident, and forest wintering. For each guild, we designed a specific set of environmental variables. We integrated MaxEnt and InVEST to identify ecological sources by combining habitat suitability with habitat quality. The results showed that 68.75% of the basin qualifies as good-quality habitat, although suitable habitats remained highly heterogeneous and fragmented among guilds. We identified 1839.93 km² of ecological sources, 157 corridors, 215 pinchpoints, and 344 barriers, revealing clear differences in the connectivity requirements between aquatic and forest birds and between resident and wintering birds. We further delineated four ecological priority areas and proposed targeted restoration strategies for wetlands, river–lake systems, forested mountains, and urban–rural transition zones. Overall, this study demonstrates that multi-guild connectivity analysis can provide a spatial framework for informing urban forest conservation, blue-green infrastructure planning, and diversified landscape planning in complex basin landscapes. Full article

Agricultural heritage systems are traditional agroecosystems formed through long-term ecological adaptation, farming practices, and local knowledge transmission. Their conservation depends not only on formal recognition but also on ecological support and effective links with contemporary cultural service networks. Yet it remains unclear whether they are spatially aligned with the eco-cultural service conditions required for socio-ecological resilience and agroecological transition. Using 205 important agricultural heritage systems in Zhejiang Province, China, this study integrates nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density estimation, the InVEST model, a cultural service index, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results show that agricultural heritage systems are significantly clustered in northern and southwestern Zhejiang. Ecosystem service values are concentrated in the mountainous and hilly areas of southwestern and south-central Zhejiang, whereas cultural service provision is concentrated in the northern Zhejiang Plain and urbanized areas around Hangzhou Bay. Agricultural heritage systems show weak but statistically detectable spatial associations with ecosystem services, cultural service provision, and their eco-cultural synergy pattern, indicating limited spatial correspondence rather than strong spatial coupling. These findings indicate a spatial mismatch between historically evolved agricultural heritage systems, ecological support conditions, and contemporary cultural service provision. This study contributes a spatial diagnostic framework for identifying ecological-support gaps, cultural-service gaps, and eco-cultural mismatch areas, thereby informing differentiated agricultural heritage governance and regional planning. Full article

Land-use/land-cover change (LULC) fundamentally alters regional ecosystem service provisioning, necessitating multi-scenario simulations coupled with multi-objective optimization (MOP) to inform territorial spatial governance. This study develops an integrated PLUS-InVEST-MOP framework to simulate land-use dynamics and their ecological consequences in the Haibei Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, a critical ecological barrier on the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Utilizing GlobeLand30 data (2000–2020), we projected 2030 land-use patterns under four scenarios (natural development, ecological conservation, economic development, and climate change) and quantified spatiotemporal variations in carbon storage and habitat quality. Results showed that grassland degradation accelerated during 2010–2020, with 1202.43 km² converted primarily to bare ground, contrasting with restoration gains observed in 2000–2010. Elevation emerged as the predominant natural driver of glacial and forestland expansion, whereas demographic and economic factors governed land encroachment on artificial surfaces. Under the climate change scenario, habitat quality declined by 3.78% (to 0.596), and carbon storage decreased by 70.04 Tg relative to 2020, underscoring the vulnerability of alpine ecosystems to warming. Conversely, the MOP-optimized scenario achieved synergistic improvements in carbon sequestration (+1.8% vs. 2020) and habitat quality (+2.3% vs. 2020) while adhering to arable land preservation targets (≥54,800 ha) and constraints on artificial surfaces. These findings provide quantitative decision support for balancing ecological conservation and sustainable development in high-altitude cold regions. Full article