Search Results (803)

Financial market forecasting remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics and regime-dependent behaviors that traditional models struggle to capture effectively. This research introduces the Adaptive Financial Reservoir Network with Hypernetwork Flow (AFRN–HyperFlow) framework, a novel ensemble architecture integrating Echo State Networks, temporal convolutional networks, mixture density networks, adaptive Hypernetworks, and deep state-space models for enhanced financial time-series prediction. Through comprehensive feature engineering incorporating technical indicators, spectral decomposition, reservoir-based representations, and flow dynamics characteristics, the framework achieves superior forecasting performance across diverse market conditions. Experimental validation on 26,817 balanced samples demonstrates exceptional results with an F1-score of 0.8947, representing a 12.3% improvement over State-of-the-Art baseline methods, while maintaining robust performance across asset classes from equities to cryptocurrencies. The adaptive Hypernetwork mechanism enables real-time regime-change detection with 2.3 days average lag and 95% accuracy, while systematic SHAP analysis provides comprehensive interpretability essential for regulatory compliance. Ablation studies reveal Echo State Networks contribute 9.47% performance improvement, validating the architectural design. The AFRN–HyperFlow framework addresses critical limitations in uncertainty quantification, regime adaptability, and interpretability, offering promising directions for next-generation financial forecasting systems incorporating quantum computing and federated learning approaches. Full article

This article provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art in cyber risk and cyber risk management, focusing on the mathematical models that have been created to help with risk quantification and insurance pricing. We discuss the main ways that cyber risk is measured, starting with vulnerability functions that show how systems react to threats and going all the way up to more complex stochastic and dynamic models that show how cyber attacks change over time. Next, we examine cyber insurance, including the structure and main features of the cyber insurance market, as well as the growing role of cyber reinsurance in strategies for transferring risk. Finally, we review the mathematical models that have been proposed in the literature for setting the prices of cyber insurance premiums and structuring reinsurance contracts, analysing their advantages, limitations, and potential applications for more effective risk management. The aim of this article is to provide researchers and professionals with a clear picture of the main quantitative tools available and to point out areas that need further research by summarising these contributions. Full article

Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) technology is presented as a key solution to optimize the transmission capacity of power lines without the need to make investments in new infrastructure. Unlike traditional methods based on static estimates, DLR allows the thermal capacity of conductors to be evaluated in real time, considering the environmental and operational conditions. This article presents a state-of-the-art analysis of this technology, including a review of the main solutions currently available on the market. Likewise, the influence of variables such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direction or solar radiation in the determination of dynamic load capacity is discussed. It also reviews various pilot and commercial projects implemented internationally, evaluating their results and lessons learned. Finally, the main technological, regulatory, and operational challenges faced by the mass adoption of DLR are identified, including aspects such as the prediction of the dynamic capacity value, combination with other flexibility options, or integration with network management systems. This review is intended to serve as a basis for future developments and research in the field. Full article

This systematic literature review explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in financial market forecasting, with a focus on four asset classes: equities, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and foreign exchange markets. Guided by the PRISMA methodology, the study identifies the most widely used predictive models, particularly LSTM, GRU, XGBoost, and hybrid deep learning architectures, as well as key evaluation metrics, such as RMSE and MAPE. The findings confirm that AI-based approaches, especially neural networks, outperform traditional statistical methods in capturing non-linear and high-dimensional dynamics. However, the analysis also reveals several critical research gaps. Most notably, current models are rarely embedded into real or simulated trading strategies, limiting their practical applicability. Furthermore, the sensitivity of widely used metrics like MAPE to volatility remains underexplored, particularly in highly unstable environments such as crypto markets. Temporal robustness is also a concern, as many studies fail to validate their models across different market regimes. While data covering one to ten years is most common, few studies assess performance stability over time. By highlighting these limitations, this review not only synthesizes the current state of the art but also outlines essential directions for future research. Specifically, it calls for greater emphasis on model interpretability, strategy-level evaluation, and volatility-aware validation frameworks, thereby contributing to the advancement of AI’s real-world utility in financial forecasting. Full article

Facing growing sustainability challenges and the critical priority of digital transformation, this study explores, through the lens of the dynamic capability view, the links between big data, sustainable performance, and green supply chain in a circular economy logic, filling a notable gap in emerging markets, particularly the pharmaceutical sector. Our study proposes an original conceptual model linking big data analytics to the circular economy, tested with 275 employees from the Saudi pharmaceutical sector. The results, obtained through state-of-the-art PLS-SEM modeling, indicate a significant positive impact of big data analytics on sustainable performance and green supply chain management within the circular economy framework. The study also reveals the crucial mediating role of sustainable performance and green supply chain management in the relationship between big data analytics and the circular economy. Our study proposes an integrated framework for understanding how digital technologies support the circular economy in emerging markets, with practical implications for pharmaceutical sector actors and policymakers, in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Full article

The present article aims to examine different approaches and technologies for producing multi-color 3D printed parts and reliefs using FDM/FFF printing technology. Several examples of parts used in the fields of technology, architecture, marketing and art are presented. The innovative HueForge software version 0.8.1 is used to create a multi-color relief. The process of establishing the Transmission Distance parameter of a given filament, which is key to creating colored reliefs with HueForge, is also examined. Full article

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced deep learning techniques is reshaping intelligent financial forecasting and decision-support systems. This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of advanced deep learning models, including state-of-the-art transformer architectures and established non-transformer approaches, for long-term stock market index prediction. Utilizing historical data from major global indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Hang Seng), we evaluate ten models across multiple forecasting horizons. A dual-metric evaluation framework is employed, combining traditional predictive accuracy metrics with critical financial performance indicators such as returns, volatility, maximum drawdown, and the Sharpe ratio. Statistical validation through the Mann–Whitney U test ensures robust differentiation in model performance. The results highlight that model effectiveness varies significantly with forecasting horizons and market conditions—where transformer-based models like PatchTST excel in short-term forecasts, while simpler architectures demonstrate greater stability over extended periods. This research offers actionable insights for the development of AI-driven intelligent financial forecasting systems, enhancing risk-aware investment strategies and supporting practical applications in FinTech and smart financial analytics. Full article

A new control system implemented with a single-stage DC-DC controller to power an LED headlamp for automotive applications is presented in this work. Daytime running light (DRL), low beam (LB), high beam (HB) and adaptive driving beam (ADB) are typical functions requiring a dedicated LED driver solution to fulfill car maker requirements for front-light applications. Single-stage drivers often exhibit a significant overshoot in LED current during transitions from driving a higher number of LEDs to a lower number. To maintain LED reliability, this current overshoot must remain below the maximum current rating of the LEDs. If the overshoot overcomes this limit, it can cause permanent damage to the LEDs or reduce their lifespan. To preserve LED reliability, a comprehensive system has been proposed to minimize the peak of LED current overshoots, especially during transitions between different operating modes or LED string configurations. A key feature of the proposed system is the implementation of a parallel discharging path to be activated only when the current flowing in the LEDs is higher than a predefined threshold. A prototype incorporating an integrated test chip has been developed to validate this approach. Measurement results and comparison with state-of-the-art solutions available in the market are shown. Furthermore, a critical aspect to be considered is the proper dimensioning of the discharging path. It requires careful considerations about the gate driver capabilities, the discharging resistor values, and the thermal management of the dumping element. For this purpose, an extensive study on how to size the relative components is also presented. Full article

Location-based services have important economic and social values. The positioning accuracy and cost have a crucial impact on the quality, promotion, and market competitiveness of location services. Dead reckoning can provide accurate location information in a short time. However, it suffers from motion pattern diversity and cumulative error. To address these issues, we propose a PCA-GWO-KELM optimization gait recognition indoor fusion localization method. In this method, 30-dimensional motion features for different motion patterns are extracted from inertial measurement units. Then, constructing PCA-GWO-KELM optimization gait recognition algorithms to obtain important features, the model parameters of the kernel-limit learning machine are optimized by the gray wolf optimization algorithm. Meanwhile, adaptive upper thresholds and adaptive dynamic time thresholds are constructed to void pseudo peaks and valleys. Finally, fusion localization is achieved by combining with acoustic localization. Comprehensive experiments have been conducted using different devices in two different scenarios. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively recognize motion patterns and mitigate cumulative error. It achieves higher localization performance and universality than state-of-the-art methods. Full article

Background: Drug therapy remains the principal management strategy for malaria but is increasingly challenged by the emergence of drug-resistant malaria parasites. The need for new antimalarial drugs is urgent, yet drug discovery and development are hindered by high costs, long durations, and safety concerns that prevent approval. The current study aimed to determine antiplasmodial activities of approved drugs in combination with artemether (ART) and lumefantrine (LU). Methods: Using the SYBR Green I assay test, this study investigated the efficacy of epirubicin (EPI) and pelitinib (PEL) combined with ART and LU at fixed drug–drug ratios (4:1, 3:1, 1:1, 1:2, 1:3 and 1:4) and volume/volume. These combinations, as well as single drug treatments, were tested against cultured strains of Plasmodium falciparum (W2, DD2, D6, 3D7 and F32-ART) and fresh and cultured clinical isolates. The fifty percent inhibition concentration (IC₅₀) and a mean sum of fifty percent fractional inhibition concentration (FIC₅₀) were determined. Results: Synergism was observed when EPI was combined with both ART and LU across all fixed ratios with a mean of mean FIC₅₀ values of <0.6. The combination of LU and EPI against the 3D7 strain demonstrated the highest efficacy with a synergism FIC₅₀ value of 0.18. Most combinations of PEL with ART and LU showed antagonism (FIC₅₀ > 1) when tested against strains of P. falciparum and clinical isolates. Conclusions: This study underscores the utility of alternative drug discovery and development strategies to bypass cost, time, and safety barriers, thereby enriching the antimalarial drug pipeline and accelerating the transition from lab to market. Full article

Navigating the complexity of petroleum futures markets—marked by extreme volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and macroeconomic shocks—demands adaptive and risk-sensitive strategies. This paper explores an Adaptive Risk-sensitive Transformer-based Deep Reinforcement Learning (ART-DRL) framework to improve portfolio optimization in commodity futures trading. While deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been applied in equities and forex, its use in commodities remains underexplored. We evaluate DRL models, including Deep Q-Networks (DQN), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C), and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), integrating dynamic reward functions and asset-specific optimization. Empirical results show improvements in risk-adjusted performance, with an annualized return of 1.353, a Sharpe Ratio of 4.340, and a Sortino Ratio of 57.766. Although the return is below DQN (1.476), the proposed model achieves better stability and risk control. Notably, the models demonstrate resilience by learning from historical periods of extreme volatility, including the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) and geopolitical shocks such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict (2022), despite testing commencing in January 2023. This research offers a practical, data-driven framework for risk-sensitive decision-making in commodities, showing how machine learning can support portfolio management under volatile market conditions. Full article

Forecasting financial time series is challenging due to their intrinsic nonlinearity, high volatility, and complex dependencies across temporal scales. This study introduces MSGformer, a novel hybrid architecture that integrates multi-scale graph neural networks (MSGNet) with Transformer encoders to capture both local temporal fluctuations and long-term global trends in high-frequency financial data. The MSGNet module constructs multi-scale representations using adaptive graph convolutions and intra-sequence attention, while the Transformer component enhances long-range dependency modeling via multi-head self-attention. We evaluate MSGformer on minute-level stock index data from the Chinese A-share market, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and SSE Composite indices. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MSGformer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines (e.g., Transformer, PatchTST, Autoformer) in terms of MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R². The results confirm that the proposed hybrid model achieves superior prediction accuracy, robustness, and generalization across various forecasting horizons, providing an effective solution for real-world financial decision-making and risk assessment. Full article

Accurate electricity wholesale price (EWP) forecasting is crucial for advancing sustainability in the energy sector, as it supports more efficient utilization and integration of renewable energy by informing when and how it should be consumed, dispatched, curtailed, or stored. However, high fluctuations in EWP, often resulting from demand–supply imbalances typically caused by sudden surges in electricity usage and the intermittency of renewable energy generation, and unforeseen external events, pose a challenge for accurate forecasting. Incorporating local temporal information (LTI) in time series, such as hourly price changes, is essential for accurate EWP forecasting, as it helps detect rapid market shifts. However, existing methods remain limited in capturing LTI, either relying on point-wise input sequences or, for fixed-length, non-overlapping segmentation methods, failing to effectively model dependencies within and across segments. This paper proposes the Local-Temporal Convolutional Transformer (LT-Conformer) model for day-ahead EWP forecasting, which addresses the challenge of capturing fine-grained LTI using Local-Temporal 1D Convolution and incorporates two attention modules to capture global temporal dependencies (e.g., daily price trends) and cross-feature dependencies (e.g., solar output influencing price). An initial evaluation in the Australian market demonstrates that LT-Conformer outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods and exhibits adaptability in forecasting EWP under volatile market conditions. Full article

Although machine learning (ML) models are widely used in many fields, their prediction processes are often hard to understand. This lack of transparency makes it harder for people to trust them, especially in high-stakes fields like healthcare and finance. Human-interpretable explanations for model predictions are crucial in these contexts. While existing local interpretation methods have been proposed, many suffer from low local fidelity, instability, and limited effectiveness when applied to highly nonlinear models. This paper presents SVM-X, a model-agnostic local explanation approach designed to address these challenges. By leveraging the inherent symmetry of the SVM hyperplane, SVM-X precisely captures the local decision boundaries of complex nonlinear models, providing more accurate and stable explanations. Experimental evaluations on the UCI Adult dataset, the Bank Marketing dataset, and the Amazon Product Review dataset demonstrate that SVM-X consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods like LIME and LEMNA. Notably, SVM-X achieves up to a 27.2% improvement in accuracy. Our work introduces a reliable and interpretable framework for understanding machine learning predictions, offering a promising new direction for future research. Full article

Effective analysis of central bank communications is critical for anticipating monetary policy changes and guiding market expectations. However, traditional natural language processing models face significant challenges in processing lengthy and nuanced policy documents, which often exceed tens of thousands of tokens. This study addresses these challenges by proposing a novel integrated deep learning framework based on Hyena Hierarchy architectures, which utilize sub-quadratic convolution mechanisms to efficiently process ultra-long sequences. The framework employs Delta-LoRA (low-rank adaptation) for parameter-efficient fine-tuning, updating less than 1% of the total parameters without additional inference overhead. To ensure robust performance across institutions and policy cycles, domain-adversarial neural networks are incorporated to learn domain-invariant representations, and a multi-task learning approach integrates auxiliary hawkish/dovish sentiment signals. Evaluations conducted on a comprehensive dataset comprising Federal Open Market Committee statements and European Central Bank speeches from 1977 to 2024 demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, achieving over 6% improvement in macro-F1 score compared to baseline models while significantly reducing inference latency by 65%. This work offers a powerful and efficient new paradigm for handling ultra-long financial policy texts and demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating advanced sequence modeling, efficient fine-tuning, and domain adaptation techniques for extracting timely economic signals, with the aim to open new avenues for quantitative policy analysis and financial market forecasting. Full article