Search Results (316)

This study develops a Service–Capacity Gap (SCG) approach to examine household electricity affordability under rising costs in Vietnam. SCG compares each household’s electricity service-cost position with its core consumption-capacity position. Using 46,375 household-year observations from VHLSS 2012–2020, the study identifies four affordability positions: service-cost pressure (SCP: 36.60%), low service-cost non-pressure (LNP: 24.46%), capacity-supported service-cost (CSS: 20.73%), and low service-cost but capacity-constrained households (LCC: 18.21%). Benchmark comparisons show that high-burden and LIHC-type diagnostics align mainly with SCP, while low-use indicators split between LNP and LCC. LNP records only 2.22% LIHC-type risk despite 49.15% falling below the low-use threshold, whereas CSS exhibits no LIHC-type risk despite relatively high electricity costs. Socioeconomic profiles further show that LCC is more capacity-constrained than LNP, and CSS has stronger capacity than SCP. Under a 30% electricity-cost shock, new exposure reaches 28.99% for CSS and 19.03% for LNP. The main diagnostic value of SCG is that it resolves two ambiguities that conventional indicators tend to conflate: low service-cost can mean either non-pressure or hidden capacity constraint, while high service-cost can mean either affordability pressure or capacity-supported service use. Policy should use SCG to target low-use households with weak capacity (LCC), avoid automatic subsidies for low-use non-pressure households (LNP), and monitor near-boundary households exposed to rising costs. Full article

The transition to electric bus (EB) fleets is a critical step towards sustainable urban transportation, offering substantial reductions in greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions relative to diesel buses. However, transit authorities face multifaceted challenges in this transition, including limited driving ranges of EBs, the need for widespread charging infrastructure, and potential strain on the electric grid, alongside opportunities such as governmental subsidies and increased fare revenues. This paper proposes a comprehensive multi-period mixed-integer programming model seeking to optimize long-term EB fleet transition plans in urban contexts while jointly accounting for all inherent financial, technical, and operational factors impacting such a transition. The model is operationalized using real data acquired from Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA), encompassing 71 bus routes and a 25-year planning horizon to meet a 100% electrification target by 2050. A scenario-based analysis evaluates the robustness of the transition plans under variations in key operational parameters. The results illustrate that optimized long-term planning yields substantial cost savings and emissions reductions, where the incorporation of environmental and social externalities and revenue shifts causes profit maximization to emerge as a more appropriate objective. In addition, it turns out that adequate dwell time is crucial for cost containment and full fleet electrification feasibility. While RTA targets 100% electrification by 2050, the base case is deliberately relaxed to 90% as certain routes, notably double-decker lines, are incompatible with currently available EB configurations. Nevertheless, full electrification is restored under the minimum dwell scenario. Also, a policy of purchasing only EBs accelerates full fleet electrification by roughly a decade with only a marginal increase in total cost, unlike imposing strict interim electrification targets. The optimized transition plans provide actionable insights for transit authorities balancing economic efficiency with sustainability goals. Full article

As climate change intensifies, transitioning the construction sector away from fossil fuels is vital to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and localized urban pollution. This paper assesses the economic feasibility of electrifying construction machinery by developing an Annualized Cost of Ownership framework that incorporates mobile charging solutions, internalizes environmental and public health operational externalities (CO₂, PM_2.5, NO_x, and SO₂), and relies on Monte Carlo simulation with Cholesky decomposition to capture the interdependencies among cost drivers. We analyze twenty distinct models of excavators and wheel loaders—the two largest contributors to construction-machinery emissions—comprising functionally equivalent diesel and battery-electric variants. Our results show that several compact electric models are already cost-competitive even without internalizing environmental and public health operational externalities. When these are accounted for, the economic advantage of electric machinery increases, particularly in denser urban areas where local air pollution damages are severe. While projected battery cost reductions further lower electric ownership costs, the magnitude of this effect is modest. However, the weak penetration of electric construction equipment in the US underscores that targeted policy interventions—such as point-of-sale rebates, green procurement mandates, tax credits, charging infrastructure subsidies, or the creation of low-emission zones and noise ordinances that advantage electric construction machinery—are needed to accelerate market adoption. These measures are particularly critical in densely populated urban areas, where internalizing local air pollution and public health externalities significantly amplifies the economic value of zero-emission machinery. Full article

Achieving long-term urban sustainability requires energy subsidy frameworks that evolve with changing technological conditions and system needs. Renewable energy subsidy regimes have played a decisive role in accelerating building-integrated solar photovoltaic deployment, but many were designed for an earlier expansion phase focused mainly on increasing generation capacity and reducing technology costs. As electricity systems move toward an integration phase characterized by higher renewable penetration, flexibility constraints, storage needs, and cross-sectoral coordination, generation-centric subsidy architectures may become increasingly misaligned with system-level requirements. This study conducts a structured comparative analysis of subsidy design in Hong Kong, Chinese Mainland, and Australia, examining legal foundations, target scope, incentive structures, and technology orientation across expansion and integration phases. Despite major differences in governance systems and market organization, the findings show a common pattern: Principal subsidy instruments remain anchored in output-based performance metrics, while storage, hydrogen, and hybrid technologies are generally supported through supplementary rather than core mechanisms. The study argues that this policy layering may limit technological inclusiveness and reduce alignment between subsidy design and evolving system needs. It therefore proposes a system-value-oriented comparative framework for subsidy redesign that recognizes flexibility, reliability, and integrated clean energy performance in the built environment. Full article

Active labor market policies (ALMPs) targeting self-employment have become a well-established and relevant instrument within employment promotion strategies across many European countries. However, despite their strategic and economic importance, there is limited evidence on their potential performance prior to implementation. This paper aims to address this gap by conducting an ex-ante cost–benefit simulation of different types of ALMPs designed to promote self-employment in Spain. The methodology is based on estimating public costs per beneficiary and quantifiable potential benefits, including avoided welfare payments, additional tax revenues, and the generation of economic activity. These benefits are adjusted using two key parameters: additionality (the proportion of the effect genuinely attributable to the policy) and persistence (the duration of the impact over time). In addition, three sensitivity scenarios (conservative, baseline, and favorable) are developed. The results suggest that financing and access to credit policies exhibit the most robust returns, while direct subsidies, general tax incentives, and emergency policies are more sensitive to intervention design features. Consequently, the effectiveness of ALMPs targeting self-employment depends fundamentally on their ability to align with the specific frictions faced by potential entrepreneurs and on the persistence of their effects. Full article

This paper examines how technology blockade affects leader and follower firms’ research and development (R&D) incentives and their cooperation decisions under asymmetric knowledge spillovers, while also exploring the role of government subsidies in mitigating market failures and restoring cooperation incentives. Motivated by the increasing restrictions on knowledge diffusion in high-technology industries, we develop a two-stage game in which firms first choose R&D investment and then compete in quantities under both non-cooperative and cooperative regimes. Our analysis shows that the impact of technology blockade on firms’ R&D investment and profit distribution depends on R&D efficiency and the presence of asymmetric knowledge spillovers. Specifically, under non-cooperative behavior, the interaction between asymmetric spillovers and R&D efficiency generates nonlinear effects on both R&D efforts and profit allocation. Under cooperative regimes, although firms can internalize spillovers, technology blockade reduces coordination benefits and leads to asymmetric profits, resulting in the absence of a self-enforcing cooperation region. Furthermore, our results indicate that government subsidies can partially or fully restore cooperation incentives, thereby increasing R&D investment and enhancing social welfare in most cases. These findings highlight a substitution effect between policy intervention and external technological constraints, emphasizing the importance of targeted subsidies in mitigating the adverse effects of technology blockade on innovation and collaboration. Full article

This study uses data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2020 to 2024. We manually collect green procurement lists from official government procurement websites and match them with firm samples. Employing the two-way fixed effects model and the Bootstrap method, this paper empirically examines the impact of green public procurement on corporate carbon reduction. The results show that green public procurement significantly improves firms’ carbon reduction performance. Mechanism analysis indicates that AI adoption and government green subsidies further strengthen this effect. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the impact is more pronounced for state-owned enterprises, high-tech firms and enterprises in regions with advanced digital economies. Accordingly, we propose suggestions including strengthening the driving role of green procurement, promoting coordination between green procurement and digital technology, optimising the allocation of green funds, and implementing targeted differentiated incentives. This research helps clarify the internal mechanism of green public procurement on carbon emission reduction performance and provides references for improving relevant practices in carbon emission reduction. Full article

This study investigates the integration of bioeconomy principles in the Greek livestock sector, framing the transition from conventional farming toward a circular bioeconomy as a strategy for resource conservation and reduced environmental pressure. It assesses farmers’ awareness of bioeconomy principles, the adoption of circular practices, and the associated economic and conservation-related performance. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to 383 livestock farmers across the main livestock-producing regions of Greece and analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple regression. Although respondents show substantial awareness, adoption remains incomplete, mainly because of high initial capital costs and insufficient financial incentives. Farmers implementing circular strategies reported gains in resource-use efficiency, waste minimization, and the conservation of soil, water, and biodiversity, particularly reduced greenhouse-gas emissions, while public subsidies and fiscal incentives emerged as the principal drivers of adoption. In applied terms, support should be prioritized for capital-intensive investments such as anaerobic digestion, manure and nutrient recovery, and water reuse, and the awareness–adoption gap is best closed through targeted subsidies and training. The findings offer concrete guidance for conservation-oriented agri-environmental policy supporting the green transition of livestock farming in Greece. Full article

As sustainable finance continues to advance, an important question is how scientifically designed and well-targeted policies can curb corporate ESG greenwashing and improve the quality of firms’ ESG and sustainability disclosure. From the perspective of fiscal–financial policy coordination, we exploit the green loan interest subsidy policy (GLIS) as a quasi-natural experiment and develop an analytical framework around four policy components: commercial banks’ information screening, local governments’ green screening, the subsidy instrument’s leverage and certification effects, and firms’ internal green governance. Within this framework, we examine whether the GLIS can restrain corporate ESG greenwashing. Using Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2022 as the sample and identifying the effect through a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model, we find that the GLIS significantly curbs corporate ESG greenwashing. In exploring the underlying channels, we find that the GLIS curbs corporate ESG greenwashing by strengthening commercial banks’ information screening, enhancing local governments’ green screening, easing firms’ external financing constraints, and reinforcing firms’ internal green governance. Further analysis indicates that the inhibitory effect of the GLIS on corporate ESG greenwashing is more pronounced among non-state-owned firms, firms in the growth stage, firms in heavily polluting industries, and firms located in regions with weaker resource endowments. In addition, the stronger a firm’s digital technology R&D capability and corporate governance capability, the greater the restraining effect of the GLIS on its ESG greenwashing. By systematically evaluating the governance effect of fiscal–financial policy coordination on corporate ESG greenwashing, our study provides useful insights for governments seeking to improve green finance policies and optimize the coordination of green policy instruments. Full article

Digital technologies are increasingly promoted as enablers of decarbonization and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) compliance in shipping, yet adoption remains constrained by high upfront costs, uncertain returns, supply–demand mismatch, and the risk of symbolic ESG disclosure and greenwashing. This study develops a collaborative governance framework to explain how technology provision, enterprise adoption, and public regulation co-evolve under ESG constraints. We construct a tripartite evolutionary game involving technology providers, shipping enterprises, and the government, incorporating ESG-driven market preference, technology matching efficiency, supply- and demand-side subsidies, regulatory intensity, greenwashing detection and penalties, and system-wide ESG benefits. Replicator dynamics and equilibrium stability analysis are used to derive convergence conditions, and numerical simulations together with system dynamics are employed to examine adjustment paths and convergence speed under alternative policy scenarios. Results indicate that a high-compliance equilibrium emerges when the net benefits of supply and adoption are positive and regulatory benefits offset enforcement and subsidy costs. Matching efficiency is identified as a key friction that slows diffusion and delays convergence even under favorable ESG market signals. Subsidies reduce cost pressure on both supply and demand sides, while greenwashing penalties and effective detection strengthen compliance incentives and accelerate convergence. Overall, the findings suggest that policy packages combining targeted incentives with credible enforcement are more effective than single-instrument approaches, and that improving technology–business fit is essential for transforming ESG pressure from external compliance into sustained internal adoption. Full article

The transition to a circular economy (CE) represents a complex socio-technical evolution, requiring synchronized policy frameworks and strategic capital reallocation. Adopting a systems-thinking lens, this study combines bibliometric network mapping with exploratory econometric modelling, to examine the associations between five core policy instruments and tangible circular investments (INV_CE) across the EU-27. Bibliometric analysis identifies the “firm” and “supply chain” as central functional hubs within the CE knowledge system, acting as primary mediators for capital flows. Econometric results indicate that Tradable Permits (TPOs) and an integrated Policy Integration Index (PII), comprising subsidies and energy-based taxes, show the strongest statistical association with circular investment patterns (p ≤ 0.001). However, patterns of structural disparity emerge between OECD and non-OECD Member States (p = 0.014), where the latter often exhibit a more rigid, tax-centric approach. Spearman correlations point toward institutional maturity, specifically government effectiveness (r_s = 0.48) and eco-innovation capacity, as a potential systemic gateway for investment absorption. Furthermore, a structural decoupling appears between voluntary approaches (VAs) and governance capacity in emerging systems, suggesting that such instruments may be less effective without “institutional readiness.” The findings suggest that circular transition is path-dependent and congruent with the co-evolution of policy and institutional regimes. To bridge the investment gap, the study highlights the need for systemic interventions that move beyond “one-size-fits-all” regulations toward targeted strategies that strengthen the institutional and data reporting infrastructures of circular systems. Full article

The European 2035 decarbonisation framework rests on a conditional premise—that higher renewable-electricity penetration accelerates battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption—yet it has not been tested at the panel level. The question is timely: the December 2025 Automotive Package would soften the 2035 target from 100 to 90 percent CO₂ reduction and permit continued production of plug-in hybrids beyond 2035, while the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) imposes binding charging-coverage targets from 2025 onwards. We assemble an annual panel of 31 European economies over 2015–2024 (310 country-year observations) and combine a two-way fixed-effects baseline on five disaggregated powertrain shares, an interaction model with public charging coverage as a moderator, and a Hansen-style threshold panel. The within-country BEV-share coefficient on renewable-electricity penetration is statistically null (β = +0.18, p = 0.247), rejecting the linear premise. The plug-in hybrid share, by contrast, responds positively and unconditionally (β = +0.36, p = 0.001)—a “PHEV paradox” of compositional response. The BEV channel, by contrast, is conditional on infrastructure: its marginal effect rises with public charging coverage and is positive only in the upper part of the charging distribution (interaction β₃ = +0.13, p = 0.027). A formal Hansen-style threshold test in the renewable share does not reject the linear specification (sup-F = 0.73, bootstrap p = 0.97), so the BEV conditionality is identified through the charging-coverage interaction. The findings characterise a two-speed European transition. The first channel reflects compliance-led PHEV hedging; the second reflects BEV charging network complementarity enabled by AFIR-mandated coverage. Subsidy rebalancing away from PHEV eligibility, strict AFIR enforcement, and PHEV utility-factor reform are necessary policy levers for the 2035 framework to deliver full electrification rather than the partial electrification that current incentives yield. Full article

Global environmental challenges—ranging from climate change to resource depletion—require not only technological innovation but also sustained shifts in household behavior. Two principal policy tools have emerged to promote such shifts in residential communities: financial incentives (e.g., subsidies, rebates, dynamic pricing) and educational campaigns (e.g., information provision, social norms messaging, feedback systems); yet rigorous comparative evidence on their relative intervention effectiveness —defined here as the magnitude of behavioral change achieved—remains fragmented. The aim of this review is to systematically compare the effectiveness of financial incentives and educational campaigns for promoting pro-environmental behaviors in residential communities, and to identify the conditions under which each approach performs best. This systematic review addresses: How do financial incentives compare to educational campaigns in promoting pro-environmental behaviors in residential communities? Through PRISMA 2020 methodology, synthesizing 51 studies including 5 major meta-analyses (2015–2024), comparative intervention effectiveness evidence is provided. Financial incentives achieve modest reductions (1.8–6.0%, g = 0.36) with rapid adoption but substantial rebound effects (35–60% offset) and poor persistence post-removal. Educational campaigns show higher variability (g = 0.23 to 0.93), with targeted approaches achieving up to 8% reductions, better persistence (57% effect retention at 24 months), and lower rebounds (15–30%). Combined approaches demonstrate the largest effects (g = 0.64) and optimal cost-effectiveness. Context determines effectiveness: financial incentives excel for high-cost technology adoption; and educational campaigns for habitual behaviors. Technology-mediated delivery (smart meters, mobile apps) enhances both approaches. The principal contribution of this review is a comprehensive umbrella synthesis to directly compare both intervention paradigms while simultaneously accounting for rebound effects, moral licensing, age-specific moderators, and cost-effectiveness, offering practitioners an integrated evidence base for intervention selection. We conclude with evidence-based recommendations for intervention selection. Full article

Agricultural fertilizer reduction depends on farmers’ responses to policy incentives, but such responses are often observed only at a few subsidy levels and under hypothetical conditions. Using survey-based stated-preference data from 15 counties in China, this study examines whether large language model (LLM)-based methods can reconstruct fertilizer-reduction response intervals under alternative subsidy scenarios. Three LLM-based inference strategies were designed and compared with 14 conventional methods within an exploratory evaluation framework covering interval recovery, extrapolation behavior, and curve-shape plausibility. LLM-based methods were competitive in this sparse-anchor reconstruction task. The incremental inference strategy, which reconstructs target intervals through local changes between subsidy anchors, produced the most stable results. DeepSeek V3.2 Increment obtained the highest IO (0.528) and a high EIO (0.602), while Qwen3-8B Increment achieved the lowest MAME (1.291) and the highest EIO (0.636). SHAP analysis showed that reconstruction difficulty was mainly associated with fertilizer bags per mu (0.2414), annual fertilizer cost (0.1808), and fertilization training (0.1473). Overall, this study explores the potential of LLM-based inference as a flexible approach for fertilizer-reduction policy-response analysis from limited stated-preference data. Full article

Geopolitical shocks affect small open economies through multiple, correlated channels, yet applied CGE analyses typically impose the timing and persistence of those shocks by assumption. This paper develops a two-stage SVAR–CGE framework that links econometrically identified shock dynamics to general-equilibrium welfare evaluation for Thailand. First, a seven-variable narrative SVAR estimated on monthly data for 2000–2025, identified using the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, is used to recover the persistence of five transmission channels: oil prices, shipping costs, exchange rates, tourism demand, and private investment. Second, these estimated persistence parameters discipline the shock paths in a 22-sector recursive comparative-static CGE model calibrated to Thailand’s 2025 Social Accounting Matrix and simulated over three annual periods using a present-value integral transformation. Under the baseline shock bundle, GDP declines by 3.18% and CPI increases by 5.49%, with welfare losses exhibiting a bimodal distributional pattern—largest for Q1 through consumption-share exposure and for Q4 through tradeable-sector intensity—departing from the monotonically regressive pattern in single-channel analyses. Policy simulations show that targeted transfers calibrated to income rank dominate a universal fuel subsidy on fiscal efficiency, welfare effectiveness (welfare multiplier 1.377 vs. 0.334), and progressivity (1.00 vs. 0.94), at half the fiscal cost (1.48% vs. 2.97% of baseline GDP). An additional bimodal-targeting scenario (S4) at identical fiscal cost underperforms income-rank targeting on all metrics, confirming the latter as the robust second-best instrument under LES preferences with strong MPC heterogeneity. These rankings are supported by the central calibration of a 9-point sensitivity grid, with partial corroboration at off-baseline configurations. The paper contributes by showing that empirically disciplining inter-annual shock dynamics in CGE analysis can materially alter policy conclusions under correlated multi-channel external shocks, shifting the preferred response from sector-specific price subsidies toward demand-side household transfers. Full article