Search Results (586)

Droughts are recognized as one of the most devastating extreme climate events, leading to severe socioeconomic losses and ecological degradation globally under climate change. With global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts are increasing, posing critical challenges to water resource management. The Standardized Precipitation Conversion Index (SPCI) has demonstrated potential in drought monitoring; however, its applicability across diverse climatic zones and multiple temporal scales remains inadequately validated. This study addresses this gap by establishing a novel multi-scale inversion analysis using ERA5-based precipitable water vapor (PWV) and precipitation data. SPCI is selected for its advantage in eliminating climatic background biases through probability normalization, overcoming limitations of traditional indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We systematically evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution of Precipitation Efficiency (PE) and SPCI across four climatic zones in China. Results show that the first two principal components explain over 85% of the spatiotemporal variability of PE, with PC1 independently contributing from 82.05% to 83.80%. This high variance contribution underscores that the spatiotemporal patterns of PE are dominated by a few key climatic drivers, validating the robustness of the principal component analysis. SPCI exhibits strong correlation with SPI, exceeding 0.95 in the Tropical Monsoon Zone (TMZ) at scales of 1–6 months, indicating its utility for short-to-medium-term drought monitoring. Distinct zonal differentiation in PE patterns is revealed, such as the bimodal annual cycle in the Tropical-Subtropical Monsoon Composite Zone (TSMCZ). This study evaluates the performance of the SPCI against the widely used SPI and SPEI across four major climatic zones in China. It validates the SPCI’s applicability across China’s complex climates, providing a scientific basis for region-specific drought early warning and water resource optimization. Full article

Dryland coastal–mountain systems stand at the frontline of climate change, where steep topographic gradients amplify the balance between resilience and collapse. Mount Elba—Egypt’s hyper-arid coastal–mountain reserve—embodies this fragile equilibrium, preserving a seventy-year climatic record across a landscape poised between sea and desert. Here, we present the first multi-decadal, spatio-temporal assessment (1950–2021) integrating the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-6) with satellite-derived vegetation responses (NDVI) along a ten-grid coastal–highland transect. Results reveal a pervasive drying trajectory of −0.42 SPEI units per decade, with vegetation–climate coherence (r ≈ 0.3, p < 0.05) intensifying inland, where orographic uplift magnifies hydroclimatic stress. The southern highlands emerge as an “internal drought belt,” while maritime humidity grants the coast partial refuge. These trends are not mere numerical abstractions; they trace the slow desiccation of ecosystems that once anchored biodiversity and pastoral livelihoods. A post-1990 regime shift marks the breakdown of wet-season recovery and the rise in persistent droughts, modulated by ENSO teleconnections—the first quantitative attribution of Pacific climate signals to Egypt’s coastal mountains. By coupling climatic diagnostics with ecological response, this study reframes drought as a living ecological process rather than a statistical anomaly, positioning Mount Elba as a sentinel landscape for resilience and adaptation in northeast Africa’s rapidly warming drylands. Full article

In regions with limited meteorological monitoring systems, spatial drought modeling is of importance for efficient water resource management. This study recommends an alternative drought modeling strategy for Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) prediction at multiple target stations using data from neighboring stations. The Multi-Output Random Forest (MORF) model is implemented in this study to consider the spatial correlations among stations for the simultaneous prediction of SPEI for multiple stations instead of training independent models for each station. The efficiency of MORF is further compared to Multi-Output Support Vector Regression (MOSVR) and three baselines; a single-output RF, a monthly climatology model, and a persistence model. In addition to statistical performance criteria, drought characteristics are evaluated using intensity–duration–frequency analysis for three temporal scales (SPEI-3, SPEI-6, and SPEI-12). Results demonstrate that MORF outperformed MOSVR and RF in approximating observed drought intensity, duration, and frequency under moderate, severe, and extreme drought scenarios. Furthermore, spatial analysis reveals that MORF accurately captured the seasonal evolution of drought conditions including onset and recovery phases. The remarkable success of MORF in contrast to MOSVR and three traditional baselines can be explained by its ability to detect nonlinear and complex interactions of drought condition among various neighboring stations. This study emphasizes the promise of multi-output machine learning algorithms for drought monitoring in water resource management and climate adaptation planning in data-scarce regions. Full article

Springs fed by carbonate-fractured/karst aquifers support spring-dependent ecosystems and provide drinking water in the Italian Apennines, where complex hydro-meteorological environments are increasingly affected by prolonged droughts. The aim of this study was to investigate the hydrogeological behavior of two springs (Alzabove and Lupa) on the mountain ridge of Central Italy, using monthly reanalysis datasets to support sustainable water management. The Master Recession Curves based on the 1998–2023 recession periods highlighted a slightly higher average recession coefficient for Lupa (α = −0.0053 days⁻¹) than for Alzabove (α = −0.0020 days⁻¹). The hydrogeological settings of the Lupa recharge area led to a less resilient response to prolonged, extreme droughts as detected via the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) computed at different time scales using ERA-5 Land datasets. The SPEI computed at a 6-month scale (SPEI₆) showed the best correlation with monthly spring discharge, with a 1-month delay time. A parsimonious linear regression model was built using the antecedent monthly spring discharge values and SPEI₆ as independent variables. The best modeling performance was achieved for the Alzabove spring, with some overestimation of spring discharge during extremely dry conditions (e.g., 2002–2003 and 2012), especially for the Lupa spring. The findings are encouraging as they reflect the use of a simple tool developed to support decisions on the sustainable management of springs in mountain environments, although issues related to evapotranspiration underestimation during extreme droughts remain. Full article

The Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program (TNSFP) region in northern China, a critical ecological zone, has experienced significant changes in vegetation coverage and water availability under climate change. However, a comprehensive understanding of how vegetation growth responds to both water deficit and surplus remains limited. This study systematically assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation responses to atmospheric water constraints (represented by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) and soil moisture constraints (represented by the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI)) across the TNSFP region from 2001 to 2022. Our results revealed a compound water constraint pattern: soil moisture deficit dominated vegetation limitation across 46.41–67.88% of the region, particularly in the middle (28–100 cm) and deep (100–289 cm) layers, while atmospheric water surplus also substantially affected 37.35% of the area. From 2001 to 2022, vegetation has shown weakening correlations with atmospheric and shallow-soil moisture, but strengthening coupling with middle- and deep-soil moisture, indicating a growing dependence on deep water resources. Furthermore, the response times of vegetation to water deficit and water surplus have been reduced, indicating that vegetation growth was increasingly restricted by water deficit while being less constrained by water surplus during the period. Attribution analysis identified that air temperature exerted a stronger influence than precipitation on vegetation–water relationships over the study period. This study improved the understanding of vegetation–water interactions under combined climate and land use change, providing critical scientific support for land use-targeted adaptive management in arid and semi-arid regions. Full article

Drought is a pervasive and intensifying climate hazard with profound implications for food security, water availability, and socioeconomic stability, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Kenya, where over 80% of the landmass comprises arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), recurrent droughts have become a critical threat to agricultural productivity and climate resilience. This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal drought dynamics in Kenya for June–July–August–September (JJAS) from 2000 to 2024, leveraging remote sensing-based drought indices and geospatial analysis for climate risk planning. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA), and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) anomaly, a Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) was developed to assess drought severity, persistence, and impact across Kenya’s four climatological seasons. Data were processed using Google Earth Engine and visualized through GIS platforms to produce high-resolution drought maps disaggregated by county and land-use class. The results revealed a marked intensification of drought conditions, with Alert and Warning classifications expanding significantly in ASALs, particularly in Garissa, Kitui, Marsabit, and Tana River. The drought persistence analysis revealed chronic exposure in drought conditions in northeastern and southeastern counties, while cropland exposure increased by over 100% while rangeland vulnerability rose nearly 56-fold. Population exposure to drought also rose sharply, underscoring the socioeconomic risks associated with climate-induced water stress. The study provides an operational framework for integrating remote sensing into early warning systems and policy planning, aligning with global climate adaptation goals and national resilience strategies. The findings advocate for proactive, data-driven drought management and localized adaptation interventions in Kenya’s most vulnerable regions. Full article

The Hailiutu River Basin in northern China represents a semi-arid area where groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) play a critical role in maintaining regional vegetation structure and ecological stability. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of GDEs and their relationship with water conditions using trend analysis, partial correlation, and Random Forest models over the period of 2002–2022. The results show that vegetation activity (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.0052/yr in GDEs. Precipitation exhibited a basin-wide upward trend of 0.735 mm/yr, while SPEI increased at 0.0207/yr. In contrast, groundwater storage declined markedly at −11.19 mm/yr, highlighting a persistent reduction in water availability that poses a significant risk to the stability of GDEs. Both partial correlation analysis and the random forest model consistently showed strong ecohydrological interactions between vegetation and groundwater. Vegetation dynamics are primarily driven by groundwater availability, especially in groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Conversely, groundwater variations are most strongly influenced by vegetation. The results indicate that precipitation and the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are the primary positive drivers of interannual NDVI variability, whereas groundwater plays a critical role in sustaining GDEs. Field observations of key species confirm the dependence of GDEs on groundwater, and vegetation dynamics are regulated by climate and groundwater; however, ongoing groundwater decline may threaten ecosystem stability. These findings demonstrate that vegetation transpiration exerts the dominant influence on groundwater variations, while groundwater simultaneously constrains vegetation growth, particularly in areas where declining groundwater storage anomalies (GWSAs) coincide with reduced NDVI. The results emphasize that continuous groundwater depletion threatens vegetation–groundwater sustainability, highlighting the need for balanced groundwater and vegetation management in arid regions. Full article

The Tensift River Basin, part of the Mediterranean region, faces significant agricultural losses due to increasing drought frequency and severity, impacting up to 15% of the national GDP. The increasing climate crisis demands our immediate attention and proactive adaptation measures, including the enhancement of early-warning tools to support timely and informed responses. To this end, our study aims to achieve the following goals: (1) evaluate satellite and reanalysis products against in situ observations using statistical metrics; (2) identify the best probability distribution for calculating drought indices using goodness-of-fit testing; (3) compare the performances of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different aggregation timescales by comparing index-based and reported (i.e., impact-based) drought events using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Our findings indicate that CHIRPS and ERA5-Land datasets perform well compared to in situ measurements for drought monitoring in the Tensift River Basin. Pearson Type 3 was identified as the optimal distribution for SPI calculation, while log-logistic was confirmed for SPEI. We also explored the effect of using the Thornthwaite method and the Hargreaves method when computing the SPEI. These results can serve as a basis for drought monitoring, modeling, and forecasting, to support decision-makers in the sustainable management of water resources. Full article

Accurate prediction of meteorological drought is essential for climate adaptation and sustainable water management in arid regions. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) derived from 1962–2021 meteorological observations, this study analyzed multi-scale drought evolution in the Arid Area of Northwest China (AANC) and revealed a distinct shift from wetting to drying after the 1997 abrupt warming. Correlation analysis indicated that the rapid temperature rise significantly enhanced evapotranspiration, offsetting the humidification effect of precipitation. To improve predictive performance, a Stacking ensemble framework was developed by integrating Elastic Network, Random Forest, and Prophet + XGBoost models, with the outputs of the base learners serving as inputs to a meta-regression layer. Compared with single models (NSE ≤ 0.742), the integrated model achieved superior accuracy (NSE = 0.886, MAE = 0.236, RMSE = 0.214), and its residuals followed a near-normal distribution, indicating high robustness. Future projections for 2022–2035 show consistent declines in SPEI₁, SPEI₃, SPEI₆, SPEI₁₂, and SPEI₂₄, suggesting that the AANC will experience increasingly frequent and severe droughts as warming-induced evaporation continues to outweigh the humidification effect of precipitation. This integrated framework enhances drought predictability and provides theoretical support for climate risk assessment and adaptive water management in arid environments. Full article

Increasing aridity across the Middle East Region has intensified concerns about the impacts of drought in conflict-affected Northeast Syria (NES). In this study, drought dynamics and their drivers from 2000 to 2023 were analyzed by integrating ERA5-Land meteorological data, MODIS land-surface indicators, FLDAS soil moisture, and ISRIC soil properties at 250 m resolution. The integration of these multisource datasets contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of drought dynamics by combining information on weather conditions, vegetation status, and soil characteristics. The proposed drought analysis framework clarifies independent controls on meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought, underscoring the role of land-atmosphere feedback through soil temperature. This workflow provides a transferable approach for drought monitoring and hypothesis generation in arid regions. For this purpose, different XGBoost models were trained for the vegetation health index (VHI), the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and surface soil-moisture anomalies, excluding target-related variables to prevent data leakage. Model interpretability was achieved using SHAP, complemented by time-series, trend, clustering, and spatial autocorrelation analyses. The models performed well (R² = 0.86–0.90), identifying soil temperature, SPEI, relative humidity, precipitation, and soil-moisture anomalies as key predictors. Regionally, soil temperature rose (+0.069 °C yr⁻¹), while rainfall (−1.203 mm yr⁻¹) and relative humidity (−0.075% yr⁻¹) declined. Spatial analyses demonstrated expanding heat hotspots and persistent soil moisture deficits. Although 2018–2019 were anomalously wet, recent years (2021–2023) exhibited severe drought. Full article

Understanding the demographic mechanisms underlying the decline of endangered tree species is essential for developing effective conservation strategies. This study aimed to quantify the population trajectory and its demographic drivers in the Korean fir (Abies koreana), a subalpine conifer endemic to South Korea and listed as endangered by the IUCN, using a Bayesian Integral Projection Model (IPM). Based on eight years of field monitoring of survival, growth, and recruitment, the Bayesian IPM estimated the population growth rate (λ_s) and quantified its uncertainty under interannual environmental variation. The results indicated that interannual variation in drought, represented by the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), was a key driver of demographic changes. The mean population growth rate (λ = 0.983) suggests a slow decline, primarily driven by high mortality among intermediate-sized individuals, which are vital for maintaining population stability. In contrast, the growth of small to medium trees showed a weak but positive elasticity, implying that management actions targeting these size classes could benefit population persistence. Accordingly, effective conservation of A. koreana should focus on mitigating drought stress through reducing competition and improving soil moisture and structure. Full article

Drought poses a severe threat to global food security and agricultural sustainability. Despite substantial efforts to enhance crop yield tolerance to drought, the effectiveness varies spatiotemporally across different environments and management practices. In this study, we compiled long-term grain yield data alongside multiple environmental indicators, including the multiscalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), climate, soil moisture (SWC), groundwater storage (GWS), nitrogen fertilizer (Nfer), and atmospheric CO₂ records. We aim to assess the variability and drivers of grain yield sensitivity to drought across the North China Plain. We found a significantly positive correlation between the interannual variability of wheat yield and SPEI over the 9-month scale, suggesting that wheat yield variations were sensitive to medium-term (>9 month) and long-term (>22 month) drought. Surprisingly, the sensitivity (S_SPEI: correlation coefficient between wheat yield variations and SPEI) of wheat yield to medium-term and long-term drought has declined substantially in the past three decades. The effects of SWC, GWS, Nfer, and CO₂ on S_SPEI varied situationally as the duration of the drought extended. Typically, SWC primarily governed short-term (<10 month) S_SPEI, with a relative weight of 38.9 ± 3.2% in explaining S_SPEI variability. The decrease in medium-term S_SPEI was at the expense of GWS, which contributed a relative weight of 33.7 ± 12.3% in explaining the variations. SWC, CO₂, and Nfer jointly dominated long-term S_SPEI variations, and the cumulative relative weight as high as 84.0 ± 6.2%. Specifically, Nfer notably enhanced the S_SPEI during prolonged drought, and the anticipated enriched CO₂-induced “fertilizer effect” and “water-saving effect” in decreasing S_SPEI were evident during long-term drought, contrasting with CO₂ enrichment-enhanced yield reductions observed in short-term drought. Our findings highlight that prediction-based practices to mitigate drought-induced yield loss and enhance agricultural sustainability, including water conservation and fertilizer addition, may differ radically depending on drought episodes. Full article

The Pearl River Basin (PRB) is a humid subtropical system where frequent floods and recurrent droughts challenge water management. GRACE and GRACE Follow-On provide basin-scale constraints on terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), yet their coarse native resolution limits applications at regional scales. We employ a downscaled TWSA product derived via a joint inversion that integrates GRACE/GFO observations with the high-resolution spatial patterns of WaterGap Global Hydrological Model (WGHM). Validation against GRACE/GFO shows that the downscaled product outperforms WGHM at basin and pixel scales, with consistently lower errors and higher skill, and with improved terrestrial water flux (TWF) estimates that agree more closely with water balance calculations in both magnitude and phase. The TWSA in the PRB exhibits strong seasonality, with precipitation (P) exceeding evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (R) from April to July and storage peaking in July. From 2002 to 2022, the basin alternates between multi-year declines and recoveries. On the annual scale, TWSA covaries with precipitation and runoff, and large-scale climate modes modulate these relationships, with El Niño and a warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) favoring wetter conditions and La Niña and a cold PDO favoring drier conditions. extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with shapley additive explanations (SHAP) attribution identifies P as the primary driver of storage variability, followed by R and E, while vegetation and radiation variables play secondary roles. Drought and flood diagnostics based on drought severity index (DSI) and a standardized flood potential index (FPI) capture the severe 2021 drought and major wet-season floods. The results demonstrate that joint inversion downscaling enhances the spatiotemporal fidelity of satellite-informed storage estimates and provides actionable information for risk assessment and water resources management. Full article

Flash droughts are a significant natural hazard, characterized by rapid onset and potential to cause substantial economic and environmental impacts. This study utilizes ERA5 soil moisture data to identify and define historical flash drought (FD) events in the Northeastern Aegean islands (specifically Chios, Lemnos, Lesvos and Samos). Hourly soil moisture data, spanning from 1990 to the present, covering three soil layers (0–7 cm, 7–28 cm and 28–100 cm), were analyzed and mapped onto a 0.1° × 0.1° grid with a native resolution of approximately 9 km. Additionally, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was applied to the island of Lesvos, using precipitation and average temperature data from the local meteorological stations. The number and characteristics of these events—including frequency, duration, decline rate, magnitude, intensity, recovery rate and recovery duration—were produced to construct a regional overview of FD risk across the Northeastern Aegean Islands. These results reveal a considerable variability in the spatial, seasonal and temporal distribution of past FD events. Furthermore, this study highlights the value of using satellite-derived soil moisture data for identifying FD events and demonstrates that analyzing this data with field temperature and precipitation measurements enables a more localized and accurate interpretation of past events. This approach facilitates the definition of FD “hotspot” areas, which, when combined with further investigation, can lead to the development of a predictive FD model. Full article

Accurately characterizing historical drought events is critical for understanding their spatial and temporal variability and for improving future drought projections. This study investigates extreme drought years across Europe using three complementary drought indicators: the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI, based on tree-ring width), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, based on stable oxygen isotopes in tree rings), and the soil moisture index (SMI, based on high-resolution climate modeling). We analyze the common period 1766–2018 simultaneously across all three reconstructions to enable direct cross-indicator comparisons, a scope not typical of prior single-indicator studies. When analyzing year-to-year variability, the driest European years differ by indicator (PDSI—1874, SPEI—2003, and SMI—1868). Quantitatively, the values exhibited are as follows: PDSI 1874 (M = −1.97; A = 64.4%), SPEI 2003 (M = −1.16; A = 90.1%), and SMI 1868 (M = 0.21; A = 83.4%). Multi-year extremes also diverge: while PDSI identifies 1941–1950 as the driest years (M = −0.82; A = 42.1%), SPEI highlights 2011–2018 (M = −0.36; A = 46.6%), and SMI points to 1781–1790 as the driest years, followed by 2011–2018. Trends in drought-covered areas show a significant European-scale increase for SMI (+0.52%/decade, p < 0.05) and regional increases for MED in SMI (~+1.1%/decade, p < 0.001) and for CEU in SPEI (+0.42%/decade, p < 0.05) and SMI (+0.6%/decade, p < 0.001). At the regional scale (Mediterranean—MED, central Europe—CEU, and northern Europe—NEU), the driest years/decades and spatial footprints vary by indicator, yet all the indicators consistently identify drought hotspots such as the MED. We also found that drought is significantly influenced by large-scale atmospheric drivers. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) between summer geopotential height at 500 mb (Z500) and drought reconstructions indicates that drought-affected regions are, in general, associated with atmospheric blocking. The canonical series are significantly correlated at r = 0.82 (p < 0.001), with explained variances of 12.78% (PDSI), 8.41% (SPEI), and 14.58% (SMI). Overall, our study underscores the value of multi-indicator approaches: individual indicators provide distinct but complementary perspectives on European drought dynamics, improving the historical context for assessing future risk. Full article