Search Results (151)

Assessing seismic vulnerability and prioritizing railway tunnels for seismic rehabilitation are critical components of railway infrastructure management, especially in seismically active regions. This study focuses on a railway network in Northwest Iran, consisting of 103 old masonry rock tunnels. The vulnerability of these tunnels is evaluated under 12 active faults as seismic sources. Fragility curves derived from the HAZUS methodology estimate the probability of various damage states under seismic intensities, including peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground displacement (PGD). The expected values of the damage states are computed as the damage index (DI) to measure the severity of damage. A normalized prioritization index (NPI) is proposed, considering seismic vulnerability and life cycle damages in tunnel prioritizing. Finally, a detailed prioritization is provided in four classes. The results indicate that 10% of the tunnels are classified as priority, 33% as second priority, 40% as third priority, and 17% as fourth priority. This prioritization is necessary when there are budget limitations and it is not possible to retrofit all tunnels simultaneously. The main contribution of this study is the development of an integrated, data-driven framework for prioritizing the seismic rehabilitation of aging masonry railway tunnels, combining fragility-based vulnerability assessment with life-cycle damage considerations in a high-risk and data-limited region. The framework outlined in this study enables decision-making organizations to efficiently prioritize the tunnels based on vulnerability, which helps to increase seismic resilience. Full article

This study investigates the influence of freeze–thaw (F–T) cycles on the seismic fragility of double-column bridge piers. Mechanical tests were conducted on standard concrete specimens subjected to 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 F–T cycles using an HC-HDK9/F rapid freeze–thaw testing machine. The experimental results were used to calibrate and validate the applicability of the selected concrete constitutive model. A nonlinear finite element model of a double-column bridge pier was developed in the OpenSees platform, incorporating material degradation parameters corresponding to varying F–T cycles. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) was performed to derive seismic demand curves and quantify fragility corresponding to multiple damage states. The results indicate that the failure probability of the piers increases significantly with the number of F–T cycles, particularly for slight and moderate damage levels. In the low to moderate peak ground acceleration (PGA) range, the exceedance probabilities for slight and moderate damage states show a sharp rise, highlighting the sensitivity of early-stage damage to F–T degradation. It is worth noting that under the extreme condition of PGA = 1.0 g and 100 freeze–thaw cycles, the piers still exhibit a certain degree of redundancy against severe and complete damage, which to some extent reflects the certain rationality of the current seismic design in freeze–thaw environments. These findings underscore the robustness of current seismic design provisions in cold regions and provide theoretical and data-driven support for performance assessment, service life prediction, and maintenance planning of bridges exposed to freeze–thaw environments. Full article

This study develops a computational framework for the simultaneous quantification of seismic resilience and economic losses in corrosion-affected coastal continuous girder bridges. The proposed model integrates adjustment factors to reflect delays in post-earthquake repairs and cost increments caused by progressive material degradation. Finite element methods and nonlinear dynamic time-history simulations were conducted on an existing coastal continuous girder bridge to validate the proposed model. The key innovation lies in a probability-weighted resilience index incorporating damage state occurrence probabilities, which overcomes the computational inefficiency of traditional recovery function approaches. Key findings demonstrate that chloride exposure duration exhibits a statistically significant positive association with earthquake-induced structural failure probabilities. Sensitivity analysis reveals two critical patterns: (1) a 0.3 g PGA increase causes a 11.4–18.2% reduction in the resilience index (RI), and (2) every ten-year extension of corrosion exposure decreases RI by 2.7–6.2%, confirming seismic intensity’s predominant role compared to material deterioration. The refined assessment approach reduces computational deviation to ±2.4%, relative to conventional recovery function methods. Economic analysis indicates that chloride-induced aging generates incremental indirect losses ranging from $58,000 to $108,000 per decade, illustrating compounding post-disaster socioeconomic consequences. This work systematically bridges corrosion-dependent structural vulnerabilities with long-term fiscal implications, providing decision-support tools for coastal continuous girder bridges’ maintenance planning. Full article

The dynamic environment of coastal regions subjects infrastructure to multiple interacting natural hazards, with the simultaneous occurrence of windstorms and earthquakes posing a particularly critical challenge. Unlike inland hazards, these coastal threats frequently exhibit irregular statistical behavior and terrain-induced anomalies. This study proposes a novel probabilistic framework to assess compound hazard effects, advancing beyond traditional single-hazard analyses. By integrating maximum entropy theory with bivariate Copula models, a unified return period analysis is developed to capture the joint probability structure of seismic and wind events. The model is calibrated using long-term observational data collected from a representative coastal zone since 2000. For the PGA marginal distribution, our sixth-moment maximum-entropy model achieved an R² of 0.90, compared with 0.57 for a conventional GEV fit—reflecting a 58% increase in explained variance. Analysis shows the progressive evolution of damage from slight damaged through moderate damaged and severe damaged to collapse for an 18-story reinforced concrete frame structure, and shows that the combined effect of seismic and wind loads results in risk probabilities of aforementioned damage state of approximately 2 × 10⁻³, 6 × 10⁻⁴, 2 × 10⁻⁴, and 3 × 10⁻⁵, respectively, under a 0.4 g ground motion and a concurrent wind speed of 15 m/s. Furthermore, when both the uncertainty of loss ratios and structural parameters are incorporated, the standard deviation of the economic loss ratio reaches up to 0.015 in the transition region (PGA 0.2–0.4 g), highlighting considerable variability in economic loss assessment, whereas the mean economic loss ratio rapidly saturates above 0.8 with increasing PGA. These findings demonstrate that uncertainty in economic loss is most pronounced within the transition region, while remaining much lower outside this zone. Overall, this study provides a robust framework and quantitative basis for comprehensive risk assessment and resilient design of coastal infrastructure under compound wind and seismic hazards. Full article

This study investigates the seismic fragility of railway tunnels intersecting fractured geological zones using a nonlinear numerical approach. A series of dynamic analyses was performed on tunnel models subjected to multiple ground motions with varying frequency contents. The structural response was evaluated in terms of maximum bending moment, and the resulting damage indices were used to classify damage states. Based on these classifications, seismic fragility functions were developed for tunnels passing through fractured zones using a lognormal cumulative distribution with peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the intensity measure. The fragility curves indicated that the probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and extensive damage states surpassed 50% at PGAs of approximately 0.289 g, 0.578 g, and 0.91 g, respectively. These findings highlight the elevated seismic risk in tunnels intersecting fractured ground and emphasize the necessity of incorporating geological conditions into seismic design frameworks. Full article

Seismic hazards in Thailand are frequently overlooked in disaster management planning, leading to insufficient research and significant economic losses during earthquake events. The 2014 Chiang Rai earthquake exposed critical vulnerabilities in Thailand’s building practices due to widespread non-compliance with building codes and limited preparedness. This exposure prompted the development of empirical vulnerability functions using loss data from 15,031 damaged residences. The study analyzed government compensation records, which were standardized using replacement cost metrics. Three distinct models were developed through probabilistic and possibilistic modeling approaches. Residual analysis demonstrated the superior performance of the possibilistic approach, with the Possibilistic-based Vulnerability Function achieving a 49.84% reduction in residuals for small loss predictions compared to probability-based models. The research findings indicate that possibility theory—capable of addressing multiple uncertainties—provided a more accurate representation of the observed losses. These results offer valuable guidance for enhancing seismic risk assessment and disaster preparedness strategies in local applications. Full article

This study uses a U-shaped aqueduct structure in a specific irrigation area as the research object to examine the damage patterns of large-span elevated U-shaped aqueduct structures under seismic action. A single-span aqueduct model that integrates fluid–structure interaction is created with the finite element program ANSYS. The incremental dynamic analysis approach is utilized to perform nonlinear dynamic time–history assessments for three types of bearings—plate rubber bearings, pot rubber bearings and lead-core rubber bearings—under conditions of an empty condition, a half-full condition and a design water level. Seismic fragility curves for the bearings and piers subjected to transverse seismic stress are developed using capacity–demand ratio models and specified damage limit states. The findings demonstrate that the likelihood of aqueduct components being damaged increases substantially as seismic intensity increases, with bearings failing before piers. Under the conditions of empty, half-full and design water levels, the structural mass increases as a result of higher water levels. This alters the dynamic response characteristics and increases the likelihood of failure in a variety of damage states. The probability of plate rubber bearings experiencing minor damage exceedance increases from 11.75% to 61.6% as the water level rises from vacant to design conditions. Lead-core rubber bearings provide better seismic isolation than plate rubber bearings and pot rubber bearings. This greatly lowers the aqueduct structure’s displacement response and damage likelihood. Under design water level circumstances, the chance of mild damage to lead rubber bearings is 8.64%, at a peak ground acceleration of 0.4 g. The damage probabilities for the pot rubber bearings and the plate rubber bearings are 80.68% and 97.45%, respectively. The research findings establish a theoretical foundation for the seismic design and damage evaluation of aqueduct structures in places with high seismic activity, ensuring the stable operation of water transfer projects and sustainable water resource utilization, presenting considerable technical applicability. Full article

To accurately assess the seismic damage of high-rise structures under long-period ground motions (LPGMs), a 36-story SRC frame-RC core tube high-rise structure was designed. Twelve groups of LPGMs and twelve groups of ordinary ground motions (OGMs) were selected and bidirectionally input into the structure. The spectral acceleration S_90c considering the effect of higher-order modes was adopted as the intensity measure (IM) of ground motions, and the maximum inter-story drift angle θ_max under bidirectional ground motions was taken as the engineering demand parameter (EDP). Structural Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) was conducted, the structural vulnerability was investigated, and seismic vulnerability curves, damage state probability curves, vulnerability index curves, as well as the probabilities of exceeding performance levels and vulnerability index of the structure during 8-degree frequent, design, and rare earthquakes were obtained, respectively. The results indicate that structural damage is significantly aggravated under LPGMs, and the exceeding probabilities for all performance levels are greater than those under OGMs, failing to meet the seismic fortification target specified in the code. When encountering an 8-degree frequent earthquake, the structure is in a moderate or severe damage state under LPGMs and is basically intact or in a slight damage state under OGMs. When encountering an 8-degree design earthquake, the structure is in a severe damage or near-collapse state under LPGMs and is in a moderate damage state under OGMs. When encountering an 8-degree rare earthquake, the structure is in a near-collapse state under LPGMs and in a severe damage state under OGMs. Full article

Earthquake hazards, such as strong ground motion, liquefaction, and landslides, pose significant threats to structures built on seismically vulnerable, loose, and saturated sandy soils. Therefore, a structural failure evaluation method that accounts for site-specific seismic responses is essential for developing effective and appropriate earthquake hazard mitigation strategies. In this study, a real-time assessment framework for structural seismic susceptibility is developed. To evaluate structural susceptibility to earthquakes, seismic fragility functions are employed as thresholds for structural failure and are linked to a geotechnical spatial grid that incorporates correlation equations for seismic load determination. The real-time assessment consists of the following procedures. First, the geotechnical spatial grid is constructed based on the geostatistical method to estimate the site-specific site response to be correlated with the earthquake hazard potential. Second, the peak ground accelerations are determined from seismic load correlation and assigned to the geotechnical spatial grid. Third, the damage grade of structure is determined by calculating the failure probabilities of defined damage levels and integrating the geotechnical spatial grids for the target structure in real time. The proposed assessment was simulated at Incheon Port, South Korea, using both an actual earthquake event (the 2017 Pohang Earthquake) and a hypothetical earthquake scenario. Full article

Oil and gas pipelines represent critical infrastructure for energy transportation and are essential for ensurin g energy security. The seismic disaster risk assessment of these pipelines is of paramount importance for safeguarding energy supplies. Traditional assessment methodologies primarily focus on the structural integrity of the pipeline body, often neglecting the impact of auxiliary structures and site-specific disaster effects. This study proposes an enhanced risk assessment methodology to address these gaps. This research systematically compiles seismic damage case studies of pipelines from major seismic zones in China. By considering the interactions between auxiliary structure types, site conditions, and forms of disasters, 15 typical operating conditions are identified, and a seismic damage case database is constructed. We develop a failure probability model that integrates geotechnical parameters, structural responses, and ground motion characteristics to assess the impact of liquefaction, site amplification, fault activity, and collapse/landslide phenomena. Utilizing Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) algorithms, this model quantifies the influence weights and coefficients of these disasters on pipeline auxiliary structures, forming a vulnerability matrix centered around Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Additionally, a dual-vulnerability assessment framework is established, and a failure probability formula accounting for the superposition effects of multiple disasters is proposed. This study marks a significant advancement, transitioning from traditional single-pipeline evaluations to “structure-disaster-site” coupling analysis, and provides a scientific basis for pipeline seismic design, operation, and maintenance under specific environmental conditions. This work contributes to the development of quantitative and refined seismic risk assessments for oil and gas pipelines. Full article

This paper evaluates the time-dependent fragility and post-earthquake residual seismic performance of existing steel frame columns in offshore atmospheric environments. Based on experimental research, the seismic failure mechanism and deterioration laws of the seismic behavior of corroded steel frame columns were revealed. A finite element analysis (FEA) method for steel frame columns, which considers corrosion damage and ductile metal damage criteria, is developed and validated. A parametric analysis in terms of service age and design parameters is conducted. Considering the impact of environmental erosion and aging, a classification criterion for damage states for existing steel frame columns is proposed, and the theoretical characterization of each damage state is provided based on the moment-rotation skeleton curves. Based on the test and numerical analysis results, probability distributions of the fragility function parameters (median and logarithmic standard deviation) are constructed. The evolution laws of the fragility parameters with increasing service age under each damage state are determined, and a time-dependent fragility model for existing steel frame columns in offshore atmospheric environments is presented through regression analysis. At a drift ratio of 4%, the probability of complete damage to columns with 40, 50, 60, and 70-year service ages increased by 18.1%, 45.3%, 79.2%, and 124.5%, respectively, compared with columns within a 30-year service age. Based on the developed FEA models and the damage class of existing columns, the influence of characteristic variables (service age, design parameters, and damage level) on the residual seismic capacity of earthquake-damaged columns, namely the seismic resistance that can be maintained even after suffering earthquake damage, is revealed. Using the particle swarm optimization back-propagation neural network (PSO-BPNN) model, nonlinear mapping relationships between the characteristic variables and residual seismic capacity are constructed, thereby proposing a residual seismic performance evaluation model for existing multi-aged steel frame columns in an offshore atmospheric environment. Combined with the damage probability matrix of the time-dependent fragility, the expected values of the residual seismic capacity of existing multi-aged steel frame columns at a given drift ratio are obtained directly in a probabilistic sense. The results of this study lay the foundation for resistance to sequential earthquakes and post-earthquake functional recovery and reconstruction, and provide theoretical support for the full life-cycle seismic resilience assessment of existing steel structures in earthquake-prone areas. Full article

Post-earthquake fires are typically of great concern for fire protection services, which are expected to be in high demand immediately after a strong earthquake. The post-earthquake functionality of fire stations is necessary after strong earthquakes to reduce potential fire damage and improve emergency services. A reliable assessment of the seismic vulnerability and expected damage for fire stations is therefore a necessary step towards the identification of the most vulnerable structures and the prioritization of seismic retrofit activities. This article presents the development of a methodology for the damage assessment of fire stations based on earthquakes scenarios. The framework is based on four models: seismic hazard, inventory, fragility and impact. The seismic hazard model represents ground shaking in terms of intensity measure at each station using a ground motion prediction equation for Eastern Canada. The inventory model categorizes all the fire stations in building classes based on construction material and seismic code level. The fragility model associates building classes with fragility functions that provide the relationship between intensity measure and expected damage probabilities. The impact model converts damage probabilities into a mean damage state. All Montreal fire stations were selected as case study demonstrations. Simulations were conducted by varying the epicenter location and magnitude for a total number of 345 scenarios. Simplified relationships that correlate the earthquake magnitude and expected damage were developed. The study showed that, for magnitude 6 earthquakes, 45% of stations on average would sustain at least moderate damage. The methodology is particularly useful for emergency planning and prioritization of seismic retrofit activities. Full article

In earthquake-prone regions, predicting the impact of seismic events on highway bridges is crucial for post-earthquake effective emergency response and recovery planning. This paper presents a methodology for a simplified seismic risk assessment of bridges using fragility curves that integrates updated ductility ratios of reinforced concrete bridge columns from literature based on experimental results on cyclic tests of reinforced concrete circular columns. The methodology considers two damage states (cover spalling and bar buckling) for bridge columns with seismic and non-seismic design considerations and then estimates displacement thresholds for each damage state. The Damage Margin Ratio (DMR) is introduced as an index defined by the ratio of the median Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for a specific damage state to the PGA that corresponds to the target seismic hazard probability of exceedance in 50 years that is typically defined in bridge design and evaluation codes and standards. The DMR is then compared to a user-specified Threshold Damage Margin Ratio (TDMR) to evaluate the level of risk at a specific threshold probability of exceedance of the damage state (5% and 10%). Comparative assessment is conducted for the relative seismic risk and performance of non-seismic and seismic bridges corresponding to the seismic hazard values at 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years for 7 urban centers in the province of Quebec as a case study demonstration of the methodology. The proposed methodology offers a rapid tool for screening and prioritizing bridges for detailed seismic evaluation. Full article

This study evaluates the seismic fragility and code compliance of reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey following the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake. Sixty representative buildings were modeled in SAP2000, consisting of thirty structures designed according to TEC-1975 and thirty according to TEC-1998. These models were subjected to three-dimensional nonlinear time history analyses using ground motions scaled to match the seismic characteristics of the earthquake. Structural performance was assessed by comparing calculated displacement demands with capacity thresholds defined by modern code provisions. The results show that buildings designed under TEC-1998 generally performed better than those constructed according to TEC-1975, particularly in terms of deformation capacity and collapse resistance. Fragility curves and exceedance probabilities were developed to quantify damage likelihoods across different performance levels. When compared with post-earthquake field observations, the analytical models produced lower collapse rates, which may suggest the presence of widespread code noncompliance in the actual building stock. These findings highlight the critical importance of ensuring adherence to seismic design regulations to improve the resilience of existing structures. Full article

Earthquakes cause enormous social and economic damage. Consequently, the seismic process requires regular monitoring and systematic forecasting of strong earthquakes. This study introduces an enhanced iteration of the method of the minimum area of alarm (MMAA), refined to advance earthquake forecasting technology closer to its practical application. In the new version, a forecast is considered successful when all target earthquake epicenters within a specified time interval are contained within predefined alarm zones. Our updated algorithm optimizes the probability of successfully detecting earthquakes across forecast cycles and the probability for subsequent periods. A case study from the Kamchatka region demonstrates the practical application of this systematic forecasting approach. We propose that this computational technology can serve as an operational tool for generating early warnings of potential seismic hazards, and a research platform for conducting detailed investigations of precursor phenomena. Full article