Search Results (1,085)

In this study, we consider monthly load forecasting, which is an essential decision for energy infrastructure planning and investment. This study focuses on the Texas power grid, where electricity consumption has surged due to rising industrial activity and the increased construction of data centers driven by growing demand for AI. Based on an extensive exploratory data analysis, we identify key characteristics of monthly electricity demand in Texas, including an accelerating upward trend, strong seasonality, and temperature sensitivity. In response, we propose a regression-based forecasting model that incorporates a carefully designed set of input features, including a nonlinear trend, lagged demand variables, a seasonality-adjusted month variable, average temperature of a representative area, and calendar-based proxies for industrial activity. We adopt a rolling forecasting approach, generating 12-month-ahead forecasts for both 2023 and 2024 using monthly data from 2013 onward. Comparative experiments against benchmarks including Holt–Winters, SARIMA, Prophet, RNN, LSTM, Transformer, Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost show that the proposed model achieves superior performance with a mean absolute percentage error of approximately 2%. The results indicate that a well-designed regression approach can effectively outperform even the latest machine learning methods in monthly load forecasting. Full article

High semen quality is vital for reproductive success in the swine industry; however, seasonal fluctuations often compromise this quality. The molecular mechanism underlying these seasonal effects on semen quality remains largely unclear. This study employed untargeted metabolomic profiling of boar seminal plasma (SP) to identify metabolites and metabolic pathways associated with semen quality during the summer and winter months. Semen samples were collected from mature Duroc boars at a commercial boar stud and classified as Passed or Failed based on motility and morphology. SP from five samples per group was analyzed using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS). In total, 373 metabolites were detected in positive ion mode and 478 in negative ion mode. Several differentially expressed metabolites (DEMs) were identified, including ergothioneine, indole-3-methyl acetate, and avocadyne in the summer, as well as LysoPC, dopamine, and betaine in the winter. These metabolites are associated with key sperm functions, including energy metabolism, antioxidant defense, and capacitation. KEGG pathway analysis indicated enrichment in starch and sucrose metabolism, pyrimidine metabolism, and amino acid metabolism across the seasons. Overall, the results reveal that SP metabolomic profiles vary with the season, thereby influencing semen quality. The identified metabolites may serve as potential biomarkers for assessing semen quality and enhancing reproductive efficiency in swine production. Full article

This study empirically evaluates the energy and carbon reduction effects of an envelope retrofit applied to an aging public building in South Korea. Unlike previous studies that primarily relied on simulation-based analyses, this work fills the empirical research gap by using actual utility billing data collected over one pre-retrofit year (2019) and two post-retrofit years (2023–2024). The retrofit included improvements to exterior walls, roofs, and windows, aiming to enhance thermal insulation and airtightness. The analysis revealed that monthly electricity consumption was reduced by 14.7% in 2023 and 8.0% in 2024 compared to that in the baseline year, with corresponding decreases in electricity costs and carbon dioxide emissions. Seasonal variations were evident: energy savings were significant in the winter due to reduced heating demand, while cooling energy use slightly increased in the summer, likely due to diminished solar heat gains resulting from improved insulation. By addressing both heating and cooling impacts, this study offers practical insights into the trade-offs of envelope retrofitting. The findings contribute to the body of knowledge by demonstrating the real-world performance of retrofit technologies and providing data-driven evidence that can inform policies and strategies for improving energy efficiency in public buildings. Full article

Dynamic and Adaptive solar systems demonstrate a greater potential to enhance the satisfaction of occupants, in terms of indoor environment quality and the energy efficiency of the buildings, than conventional shading solutions. This study has evaluated Dynamic and Adaptive Photovoltaic Shading Systems (DAPVSSs) through a comprehensive analysis of six shading designs in which their energy production and the comfort of occupants were considered. Energy generation, thermal comfort, daylight, and glare control have been assessed in this study, considering multiple orientations throughout the seasons, and a variety of tools, such as Rhino 6.0, Grasshopper, ClimateStudio 2.1, and Ladybug, have been exploited for these purposes. The results showed that the prototypes that were geometrically more complex, designs 5 and 6 in particular, had approximately 485 kWh higher energy production and energy savings for cooling and 48% better glare control than the other simplified configurations while maintaining the minimum daylight as the threshold (min DF: 2%) due to adaptive and control methodologies. Design 6 demonstrated optimal balanced performance for all the aforementioned criteria, achieving 587 kWh/year energy production while maintaining the daylight factor within the 2.1–2.9% optimal range and ensuring visual comfort compliance during 94% of occupied hours. This research has established a framework that can be used to make well-informed design decisions that could balance energy production, occupants’ wellbeing, and architectural integration, while advancing sustainable building envelope technologies. Full article

This paper presents an annual, real-world evaluation of the performance and economics of a residential photovoltaic (PV) system coupled with a battery energy storage system (BESS) in southern Poland. The system, monitored with 5 min resolution, operated under time-of-use (TOU) electricity tariffs. Seasonal variation was significant; self-sufficiency exceeded 90% in summer, while winter conditions increased grid dependency. The hybrid system reduced electricity costs by over EUR 1400 annually, with battery operation optimized for high-tariff periods. Comparative analysis of three configurations—grid-only, PV-only, and PV + BESS—demonstrated the economic advantage of the integrated solution, with the shortest payback period (9.0 years) achieved with financial support. However, grid voltage instability during high PV production led to inverter shutdowns, highlighting limitations in the infrastructure. This study emphasizes the importance of tariff strategies, environmental conditions, and voltage control when designing residential PV-BESS systems. Full article

The Complementary Relationship (CR) principle of evapotranspiration provides an efficient approach for estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), owing to its simplified computation and effectiveness in utilizing meteorological factors. Accurate estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) is crucial for understanding surface energy and water cycles, especially in permafrost regions. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of two Complementary Relationship (CR)-based methods—Bouchet’s in 1963 and Brutsaert’s in 2015—for estimating ETa on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), using observations from Eddy Covariance (EC) systems. The potential evapotranspiration (ET_p) was calculated using the Penman equation with two wind functions: the Rome wind function and the Monin–Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST). The comparison revealed that Bouchet’s method underestimated ET_a during frozen soil periods and overestimated it during thawed periods. In contrast, Brutsaert’s method combined with the MOST yielded the lowest RMSE values (0.67–0.70 mm/day) and the highest correlation coefficients (r > 0.85), indicating superior performance. Sensitivity analysis showed that net radiation (Rn) had the strongest influence on ET_a, with a daily sensitivity coefficient of up to 1.35. This study highlights the improved accuracy and reliability of Brutsaert’s CR method in cold alpine environments, underscoring the importance of considering freeze–thaw dynamics in ET modeling. Future research should incorporate seasonal calibration of key parameters (e.g., ε) to further reduce uncertainty. Full article

The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) stands as a pivotal parameter within the Earth system, quantifying the energy exchange between vegetation and solar radiation. Accordingly, there is an urgent need for comprehensive validation studies to accurately quantify uncertainties and improve the reliability of FAPAR-based applications. This study validated five global FAPAR products, MOD15A2H, MYD15A2H, VNP15A2H, GEOV2, and GEOV3, over four boreal forest sites in North America. Qualitative quality flags (QQFs) and quantitative quality indicators (QQIs) of each product were analyzed. Time series high-resolution reference FAPAR maps were developed using the Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 dataset. The reference FAPAR maps revealed a strong agreement with the in situ FAPAR from AmeriFlux (correlation coefficient (R) = 0.91; root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.06). The results revealed that global FAPAR products show similar uncertainties (RMSE: 0.16 ± 0.04) and moderate agreement with the reference FAPAR (R = 0.75 ± 0.10). On average, 34.47 ± 6.91% of the FAPAR data met the goal requirements of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), while 54.41 ± 6.89% met the threshold requirements of the GCOS. Deciduous forests perform better than evergreen forests, and the products tend to underestimate the reference data, especially for the beginning and end of growing seasons in evergreen forests. There are no obvious quality differences at different QQFs, and the relative QQI can be used to filter high-quality values. To enhance the regional applicability of global FAPAR products, further algorithm improvements and expanded validation efforts are essential. Full article

Electric buses (EBs) are increasingly adopted for their environmental and operational benefits, yet their real-world efficiency is influenced by climate, route characteristics, and auxiliary energy demands. While most existing research identifies winter as the most energy-intensive season due to cabin heating and reduced battery performance, this study presents a contrasting perspective based on a three-year longitudinal analysis of the LYMMO fleet in Orlando, Florida—a subtropical U.S. region. The findings reveal that summer is the most energy-intensive season, primarily due to sustained HVAC usage driven by high ambient temperatures—a seasonal pattern rarely reported in the current literature and a key regional contribution. Additionally, idling time exceeds driving time across all seasons, with HVAC usage during idling emerging as the dominant contributor to total energy consumption. To mitigate these inefficiencies, a proxy-based HVAC energy estimation method and an optimization model were developed, incorporating ambient temperature and peak passenger load. This approach achieved up to 24% energy savings without compromising thermal comfort. Results validated through non-parametric statistical testing support operational strategies such as idling reduction, HVAC control, and seasonally adaptive scheduling, offering practical pathways to improve EB efficiency in warm-weather transit systems. Full article

This study presents a comparative analysis of the annual performances of stationary and dual-axis sun-tracked photovoltaic–thermal (PVT) systems. The experimental research was conducted at a demonstration site in Oświęcim, Poland, where both systems were evaluated in terms of electricity and heat production. The test installation consisted of thirty stationary PVT modules and five dual-axis sun-tracking systems, each equipped with six PV modules. An innovative cooling system was developed for the PVT modules, consisting of a surface-mounted heat sink installed on the rear side of each panel. The system includes embedded tubes through which a cooling fluid circulates, enabling efficient heat recovery. The results indicated that the stationary PVT system outperformed a conventional fixed PV installation, whose expected output was estimated using PVGIS data. Specifically, the stationary PVT system generated 26.1 kWh/m² more electricity annually, representing a 14.8% increase. The sun-tracked PVT modules yielded even higher gains, producing 42% more electricity than the stationary system, with particularly notable improvements during the autumn and winter seasons. After accounting for the electricity consumed by the tracking mechanisms, the sun-tracked PVT system still delivered a 34% higher net electricity output. Moreover, it enhanced the thermal energy output by 85%. The findings contribute to the ongoing development of high-performance PVT systems and provide valuable insights for their optimal deployment in various climatic conditions, supporting the broader integration of renewable energy technologies in building energy systems. Full article

The wave spectrum, as a key statistical feature describing wave energy distribution, is crucial for understanding wave propagation mechanisms and supporting ocean engineering applications. This study, based on ERA5 reanalysis spectrum data, proposes a model combining CNN and xLSTM for rapid gridded wave spectrum prediction over the Bohai and Yellow Seas domain. It uses 2D gridded spectrum data rather than a spectrum at specific points as input and analyzes the impact of various input factors at different time lags on wave development. The results show that incorporating water depth and mean sea level pressure significantly reduces errors. The model performs well across seasons with the seasonal spatial average root mean square error (SARMSE) of spectral energy remaining below 0.040 m²·s and RMSEs for significant wave height (SWH) and mean wave period (MWP) of 0.138 m and 1.331 s, respectively. At individual points, the spectral density bias is near zero, correlation coefficients range from 0.95 to 0.98, and the peak frequency RMSE is between 0.03 and 0.04 Hz. During a typical cold wave event, the model accurately reproduces the energy evolution and peak frequency shift. Buoy observations confirm that the model effectively tracks significant wave height trends under varying conditions. Moreover, applying a frequency-weighted loss function enhances the model’s ability to capture high-frequency spectral components, further improving prediction accuracy. Overall, the proposed method shows strong performance in spectrum prediction and provides a valuable approach for regional wave spectrum modeling. Full article

The Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA) was released in August 2022, providing a continental atmospheric reanalysis, and, in addition, the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) is a recently released hindcast product that can be used to create a high temporal and spatial resolution wind resource atlas of Europe. In order to demonstrate the suitability of the NEWA and CERRA wind datasets for offshore wind energy applications, the accuracy of these datasets was assessed for the Mediterranean Sea, a basin with a high potential for the development of offshore wind projects. Long-term in situ measurements from 13 offshore locations along the basin were used in order to assess the performance of the CERRA and NEWA wind speed datasets in the hourly and seasonal time scales by using a variety of different evaluation tools. The results revealed that the CERRA dataset outperforms NEWA and is a reliable source for offshore wind energy assessment studies in the examined areas, although special attention should be paid to extreme value analysis of the wind speed. Full article

Improving the energy efficiency of residential buildings is essential for achieving global climate goals and reducing environmental impact. This study analyzes the Total Performance approach using the example of a modern semi-detached house built by a Polish developer, as an example. The building is designed with integrated systems that minimize energy consumption while maintaining resident comfort. The building is equipped with an air-to-water heat pump, underfloor heating, mechanical ventilation with heat recovery, and automatic temperature control systems. Energy efficiency was assessed using ArCADia–TERMOCAD 8.0 software in accordance with Polish Technical Specifications (TS) and verified by monitoring real-time electricity consumption during the heating season. The results show a PED from non-renewable sources of 54.05 kWh/(m²·year), representing a 23% reduction compared to the Polish regulatory limit of 70 kWh/(m²·year). Real-time monitoring conducted from December 2024 to April 2025 confirmed these results, indicating an actual energy demand of approximately 1771 kWh/year. Domestic hot water (DHW) preparation accounted for the largest share of energy consumption. Despite its dependence on grid electricity, the building has the infrastructure to enable future photovoltaic (PV) installation, offering further potential for emissions reduction. The results confirm that Total Performance strategies are not only compliant with applicable standards, but also economically and environmentally viable. They represent a scalable model for sustainable residential construction, in line with the European Union’s (EU’s) decarbonization policy and the goals of the European Green Deal. Full article

To improve the accuracy of heating load forecasting and effectively address the energy waste caused by supply–demand imbalances and uneven thermal distribution, this study innovatively proposes a hybrid prediction model incorporating seasonal adjustment strategies. The model establishes a dynamically adaptive forecasting framework through synergistic integration of the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Specifically, VMD is first employed to decompose the historical heating load data from Arizona State University’s Tempe campus into multiple stationary modal components, aiming to reduce data complexity and suppress noise interference. Subsequently, the SSA is utilized to optimize the hyperparameters of the LSTM network, with targeted adjustments made according to the seasonal characteristics of the heating load, enabling the identification of optimal configurations for each season. Comprehensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed model achieves the lowest values across three key performance metrics—Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)—under various seasonal conditions. Notably, the MAPE values are reduced to 1.3824%, 0.9549%, 6.4018%, and 1.3272%, with average error reductions of 9.4873%, 3.8451%, 6.6545%, and 6.5712% compared to alternative models. These results strongly confirm the superior predictive accuracy and fitting capability of the proposed model, highlighting its potential to support energy allocation optimization in district heating systems. Full article

This current review examines modeling approaches for renovating reinforced concrete (RC) buildings for vertical forest (VF) application, taking into account structural retrofitting, energy systems, forestry integration, and occupant comfort. The study assesses research conducted with an advanced 3D finite element analysis and the use of retrofitting modeling techniques, including textile-reinforced mortar (TRM), fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP), seismic joints, and green concrete applications. The energy system modeling methods are reviewed, taking into account the complexity of incorporating vegetation and seasonal variations. During forestry integration, three main design parameters are identified, namely, root systems, trunks, and crowns, for their critical role in the structural stability and optimal environmental performance. The comfort models are identified evolving from static to adaptive models incorporating thermal, acoustic, visual and air quality parameters. The current review consists of more than one hundred studies indicating that the integration of natural systems to buildings requires a multidimensional and multidisciplinary approach with sophisticated systems. The findings of this review provide the basis for implementing VF models to RC buildings, while highlighting areas requiring further research and validation. Full article

Aiming at the economic problems of industrial users with wind power, photovoltaic, and small hydropower resources in clean energy consumption and trading with superior power grids, this paper proposes a distributed pumped storage capacity optimization configuration method considering clean energy systems. First, considering the maximization of the investment benefit of distributed pumped storage as the upper goal, a configuration scheme of the installed capacity is formulated. Second, under the two-part electricity price mechanism, combined with the basin hydraulic coupling relationship model, the operation strategy optimization of distributed pumped storage power stations and small hydropower stations is carried out with the minimum operation cost of the clean energy system as the lower optimization objective. Finally, the bi-level optimization model is solved by combining the alternating direction multiplier method and CPLEX solver. This study demonstrates that distributed pumped storage implementation enhances seasonal operational performance, improving clean energy utilization while reducing industrial electricity costs. A post-implementation analysis revealed monthly operating cost reductions of 2.36, 1.72, and 2.13 million RMB for wet, dry, and normal periods, respectively. Coordinated dispatch strategies significantly decreased hydropower station water wastage by 82,000, 28,000, and 52,000 cubic meters during corresponding periods, confirming simultaneous economic and resource efficiency improvements. Full article