Search Results (156)

Accurate field-scale surface soil moisture (SSM) measures are important for agricultural water management. Conventional satellite SSM products remain too coarse for within-field applications. Here, we developed sequence-aware deep learning models for growing-season SSM estimation by fusing data from Sentinel-1 C-band SAR, harmonized Landsat-8/Sentinel-2 (HLS), and local ancillary datasets. We assembled a multi-source dataset on Sentinel-1 overpass time for 2016–2024 (May–September), yielding 1469 samples and 65 features per sample, including SAR and optical features, meteorological data, soil texture and bulk density, topography, crop labels, irrigation-likelihood flag, and irregular-time-step encoding. We compared long short-term memory (LSTM) and temporal convolutional neural network (TCN) architectures together with attention-augmented variants, including feature attention (FA), temporal attention (TA), and the combined feature–temporal attention (FTA). Models were trained and tested on seven years of data and were validated based on a temporal generalization using combined data of a wet year (2016) and a dry year (2023). The best model, FTA-TCN, achieved R² = 0.851, RMSE = 0.024 m³.m⁻³, and MAE = 0.020 m³.m⁻³ on the withheld validation years, outperforming the base LSTM (R² = 0.422; RMSE = 0.053 m³.m⁻³; MAE = 0.043 m³.m⁻³) and the base TCN (R² = 0.746; RMSE = 0.034 m³.m⁻³; MAE = 0.022 m³.m⁻³). Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis indicated that antecedent precipitation and short-term rainfall accumulations were dominant forcings, while soil texture, elevation, incidence angle, and vegetation indices modulated SSM variability. Satellite-derived features accounted for ~28.5% of aggregated SHAP importance. Overall, the results show that dual-attention temporal convolution can capture field-scale SSM dynamics across wet and dry seasons when satellite signals are coupled with local soil-meteorological-management context. Full article

The Tomarrazón-Camarones Basin (La Guajira, Colombia) is characterized by frequent, widespread flooding and, anthropogenically, by intense instream sediment mining. Mapping flood hazard is hence essential to develop effective flood management plans, and a knowledge of the water regime (duration curves) is also essential to estimate sediment transport and carry out sediment budgets to inform on the impacts and sustainability of the mining activity. However, neither water levels nor discharges are monitored by official gauging stations, and only a few rainfall gauging stations are available in the area, with daily records often affected by data gaps. Therefore, a first challenge is to reconstruct discharge time series by an affordable effort, scaled to the financial-labour resources available in that challenging context. This paper presents an integrated approach that combines satellite-derived rainfall data with ground observations. A semi-distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS, SCS-CN method) is used to reconstruct the full flow-rate time series once calibrated and validated with data derived from automatic sensors and field measurements. The model is fed with hourly data derived from daily data at ground gauging stations temporally downscaled by adopting the spatially distributed hourly rainfall patterns obtained from satellite records. Before that, observed water levels in three stations equipped with water level sensors were translated into discharge time series using analytical relationships based on field-measured geometric and physical characteristics. Then, these event-based hydrographs were used to calibrate and validate the model. Results show good agreement with observations, with R² = 0.981 and a relative RMSE of 40% for overall hydrograph reproduction, and R² = 0.87 for peak flow estimation, supporting a reasonable confidence in the approach. The calibrated model is then applied to long-term datasets (1973–2024) to retrieve duration curves and return periods of peak discharges. Full article

Estimation of rice crop yield at the village level is essential because village is the Insurance Unit (IU) for rice crop in many regions in India, and timely and accurate yield information at this scale supports timely and transparent claim settlements for farmers and supports local agricultural planning. To achieve this, a multi-source satellite data-based machine learning approach was used to estimate rice yield at the village level using optical and SAR data, climatic data and land surface model-derived parameters in Kakinada of Andhra Pradesh, India. The predictor dataset included seasonal cumulative rainfall, seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-Max, seasonal NDVI-Mean, seasonal Land Surface Water Index (LSWI)-Max, seasonal LSWI-Mean, season total Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) and season total Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and season total backscatter of the Sentinel-1 VH polarization were used to represent crop greenness, moisture status, photosynthetic activity, soil water availability, canopy structure, and seasonal water supply. For model development and validation, village-level rice yield data from 2017 to 2023 was used, which was collected through Crop Cutting Experiment (CCE) at the maturity stage of Kharif season. In this study, four machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boosting (GB) were evaluated. The multi-source satellite data and yield data for the period 2017–2021 were used to train the models, which were independently tested on 2022 data and then applied to predict the rice yield in 2023. Leave-One-Year-Out (LOYO) cross-validation was also conducted on the 2017–2022 data to assess temporal robustness and generalization capability across years. Among the evaluated models, Random Forest exhibited the best overall performance. For the independent test year 2022, RF achieved an R² of 0.465, RMSE of 415.34 kg ha⁻¹, MAE of 322.22 kg ha⁻¹, and MAPE of 10.36%. For the prediction year 2023, RF achieved improved accuracy with an R² of 0.838, RMSE of 325.75 kg ha⁻¹, MAE of 262.21 kg ha⁻¹, and MAPE of 7.68%. Further, LOYO cross-validation also showed the robustness of RF, achieving the highest mean R² of 0.702 and mean RMSE of 384.73 kg ha⁻¹. The results illustrate that multi-source satellite data combined with machine learning can be a reliable and operationally useful tool in predicting village-level rice yield, which can be used for crop insurance claim settlement. Full article

This study presents an integrated framework for agricultural drought monitoring in data-scarce regions, utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to analyze multisource Earth observation data over the South Wollo highlands, Ethiopia, from 2001 to 2024. The analysis was complemented by Mann–Kendall trend testing, Sen’s slope estimation, and Pettitt change-point detection to identify and quantify long-term trends and abrupt shifts in drought dynamics. The methodology integrates climatic and satellite-derived indicators within a hybrid analytical framework. It incorporates the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), vegetation condition index (VCI), vegetation health index (VHI), temperature condition index (TCI), and land surface temperature (LST), which are derived from MODIS (NDVI, LST, PET) and CHIRPS precipitation datasets. The analysis focused on the main growing season (June–September) to capture critical crop growth and moisture-sensitive periods for agricultural production in the study area. The findings reveal pronounced interannual variability in drought occurrence and intensity across the study period. Severe agricultural drought conditions were most extensive in 2009 and 2014, with VHIs indicating 15% and 4% of the area under severe and extreme drought in 2009, respectively, and 2.6% and 2% in 2014, respectively. In contrast, 2001, 2005, 2020, and particularly 2024 were characterized by predominantly no-drought to mild-drought conditions, with no-drought coverage increasing from 86.7% (2009) to 98.0% (2024). Vegetation-based indices demonstrate that drought impacts are episodic rather than persistent and strongly controlled by rainfall timing and early-season moisture availability. The LST exhibited marked year-to-year variability (28.8 °C to 33.8 °C), with elevated temperatures coinciding with drought periods and suppressed evaporative cooling. Correlation analysis confirmed a strong positive relationship between the SPEI and VHI (r = 0.77), with moderate correlations for the VCI (r = 0.40) and TCI (r = 0.36), underscoring the sensitivity of integrated vegetation health to the climatic water balance. The study concludes that combining the SPEI with satellite-derived vegetation and thermal indices provides a robust, scalable approach for agricultural drought assessment in regions with limited ground-based observations. The integrated framework effectively captures both moisture deficits and thermal stress components, offering a scientific basis for improving drought early warning systems and climate-resilient agricultural planning in Ethiopia and similar environments. Full article

This study evaluated the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity (R factor) and its implications for soil loss in the Velhas River Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Rainfall erosivity was estimated from 49 rain gauge stations and CHIRPS precipitation data using empirical equations-based on monthly and annual precipitation totals. Soil loss was estimated using the RUSLE model for the years of minimum and maximum erosivity. Between 2014 and 2024, annual R values ranged from approximately 3900 to more than 9000 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with the lowest values recorded in 2014 and the highest in 2022. Although 2020 had the highest annual rainfall, 2022 showed the highest erosivity, indicating that rainfall intensity and temporal concentration were more important than total rainfall volume. Furthermore, the comparison of erosivity was estimated from ANA stations and derived from CHIRPS agreement for paired station-year observations (r = 0.7196), although CHIRPS slightly underestimated erosivity values (mean bias −5.74%). Estimated soil loss ranged from 0.60 to 274.17 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with the highest values occurring mainly in exposed soil and agricultural areas. These findings highlight the importance of rainfall temporal distribution in erosion risk and support the use of satellite-derived precipitation products for regional-scale erosion assessments in data-scarce tropical basins. Full article

Various global precipitation datasets have been used in precipitation-related fields such as hydrology, meteorology, climatology, and ecology to achieve different research objectives. Error analysis is an integral part before applying them to operational fields. However, the growing number of precipitation products and the absence of comprehensive error comparison research jointly impede users in distinguishing product-specific error patterns and constrain developers from enhancing precipitation estimation accuracy. To address this issue, we performed error analysis and comparison of thirteen global precipitation products—categorized as delayed time (DT), near real-time (NRT), and real-time (RT) types—across mainland China. Results revealed that GSMaP-Gauge (Gauge-adjusted Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation) performed best in terms of detection indicators, while MGP (Multi-source merged global precipitation product) performed best in estimating precipitation accuracy. However, IMERG-Final (Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final Run) proved ineffective in reducing the overestimations of both storm and light precipitation events in regions of complex topography. Furthermore, two DT products (i.e., ERA5 (Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate) and MGP) overestimated the frequency of light precipitation events, with relative rainfall occurrence biases exceeding 80%. This bias is attributable to both false detections and the misclassification of high intensity rainfall as light precipitation. Although GSMaP-NOW (based exclusively on passive microwave data) detected precipitation more effectively than the infrared-only PDIRNow (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)—Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (Now)), it achieved lower accuracy. This discrepancy reflects the tradeoff between the higher precipitation sensitivity of passive microwave observations and their sparse temporal sampling, compared with the continuous coverage provided by infrared data. Finally, our findings indicated that current evaluation approaches do not reliably determine the optimal precipitation product, since product superiority is contingent upon the selected error metric. This underscores the urgent need to develop theoretically grounded and operationally reliable methods for selecting optimal precipitation products to support data users in deriving robust and reliable conclusions in hydrology, meteorology, and ecology. Full article

Reliable precipitation data are fundamental for climate and hydrological research, especially in regions with sparse ground-based observations. This study evaluates and compares the accuracy of two satellite-based precipitation products—CMORPH and GPCP—across daily, monthly, and annual scales over Iran. Daily, monthly, and annual precipitation estimates from CMORPH and GPCP were validated against observations from 128 meteorological stations distributed throughout the country. The assessment employed two statistical indices—correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE)—alongside three categorical indices: probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and critical success index (CSI). At the daily scale, CMORPH outperformed GPCP in terms of CC, RMSE, POD, and CSI, while GPCP exhibited a lower FAR. At the monthly scale, correlations between satellite-derived and station-based precipitation were stronger than those at the daily scale; CMORPH achieved the highest correlation (CC = 0.84), whereas GPCP yielded a lower RMSE, with a mean value of 26.2 mm. At the annual scale, GPCP demonstrated better performance in CC, while CMORPH showed superior accuracy in RMSE. CMORPH consistently underestimated precipitation, whereas GPCP tended to overestimate rainfall across Iran. Although both datasets provided reliable precipitation estimates at the national scale, CMORPH demonstrated higher overall accuracy and efficiency. Its superior performance across most indices makes CMORPH the more suitable dataset for precipitation monitoring in Iran, despite its tendency to underestimate rainfall relative to ground observations. Full article

Soil moisture (SM) mediates land–atmosphere water and energy exchanges and is therefore central to evapotranspiration, drought evolution, and hydroclimate extremes. The SM drydown timescale (τ), typically derived from exponential decay fits following rainfall or snowmelt rewetting, provides a compact measure of near-surface “memory” and drying rate. Despite the availability of microwave satellite SM products, their reliability for drydown characterization over the Tibetan Plateau remains uncertain, and systematic evaluations of drydown events and τ against in situ networks are still limited. Here, we integrate five Tibetan Plateau (TP) soil moisture sensor networks with SMAP to (i) assess consistency in drydown event detection and τ estimation across observation systems and (ii) map TP-wide τ patterns and identify dominant controls using SMAP (2016–2025). SMAP-derived τ is generally smaller than in situ τ, indicating a faster drying signal in the satellite product; this may be attributed to differences in effective sensing depth and spatial representativeness between satellite footprints and point measurements. TP SMAP τ exhibits a pronounced southeast-to-northwest decreasing gradient, with the shortest τ over the arid interior. Partial least squares regression identifies elevation, sand fraction, and vegetation conditions as primary drivers of spatial τ variability. This research provides observational constraints for understanding land-surface hydrological processes and land–atmosphere coupling in alpine regions. Full article

Accurate runoff estimation in ungauged basins is critical for water resource management but often relies on static parameters like the runoff threshold (P₀), derived from the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method, which fail to capture spatiotemporal soil moisture variability. This study proposes an automated methodology utilising Google Earth Engine to dynamically adjust P₀ by integrating daily soil moisture data from SMAP L4, land cover from MODIS, and precipitation from GSMaP. Unlike traditional approaches that use antecedent precipitation as a proxy, this method classifies moisture conditions using historical percentiles to update the threshold daily. The methodology was validated in two sub-basins within the Guadiana River basin (Spain). The results highlight a stark contrast between methods: while static regulatory values remained invariant (36 and 48 mm), the proposed dynamic model revealed significant fluctuations, with P₀ values ranging from over 50 mm in dry periods down to less than 14 mm during saturation. Conversely, the proposed dynamic method effectively captures real-time soil saturation, exhibiting adaptability with reductions in P₀ of up to 72% immediately following rainfall events. This satellite-based approach provides a scalable, physically consistent alternative for assessing runoff potential in data-scarce regions, significantly enhancing the reliability of hydrological modelling compared to conventional regulatory standards. Full article

Estimating runoff in ungauged catchments remains a major challenge in hydrology, particularly in remote Andean headwaters where limited accessibility and budgetary constraints hinder the long-term operation of monitoring networks. This study integrates satellite-derived rainfall data, hydrological modeling, and benthic macroinvertebrate diversity analysis to explore how short-term antecedent flow conditions relate to temporal variation in community structure. The research was conducted in a pristine 0.26 km² micro-catchment of the upper Collay basin (southern Ecuador). Daily simulated discharge was used to compute antecedent flow descriptors representing short-term variability and cumulative changes in stream conditions, which were related to taxonomic (i.e., H = Shannon diversity, E = Pielou evenness, and D = Simpson dominance) and functional indices (i.e., Rao = Rao’s quadratic entropy, FAD1 = Functional Attribute Diversity, and wFDc = weighted functional dendrogram-based diversity) using Generalized Additive Models. Results showed progressively higher hydrology–biology associations with increasing antecedent flow integration length, suggesting that biological variability responds more strongly to cumulative than to instantaneous flow conditions. Among hydrological descriptors, the cumulative magnitude of negative flow changes was consistently associated with taxonomic diversity. H and E showed more coherent and robust patterns than functional metrics, indicating a faster response of community composition to short-term hydrological variability, whereas functional diversity integrates slower ecological processes. While based on modeled discharge under severe hydrometeorological data limitations, this study provides a practical ecohydrological starting point for identifying short-term hydrological memory signals potentially relevant to aquatic biodiversity in ungauged headwater systems. Full article

This observation-based and explainable approach demonstrates the applicability of multi-source remote sensing for flood assessment in data-scarce regions, offering a robust scientific basis for flood management and spatial planning in monsoon-affected areas. Floods are among the most frequent and devastating natural hazards, particularly in developing countries such as Myanmar, where monsoon-driven rainfall and inadequate flood-control infrastructure exacerbate disaster impacts. This study presents a satellite-driven and interpretable framework for high-resolution flood susceptibility and risk assessment by integrating multi-source remote sensing and geospatial data with ensemble machine-learning models—Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)—implemented on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Eleven satellite- and GIS-derived predictors were used, including the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, curvature, precipitation frequency, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land-use type, and distance to rivers, to develop flood susceptibility models. The Jenks natural breaks method was applied to classify flood susceptibility into five categories across Myanmar. Both models achieved excellent predictive performance, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.943 for XGBoost and 0.936 for LightGBM, effectively distinguishing flood-prone from non-prone areas. XGBoost estimated that 26.1% of Myanmar’s territory falls within medium- to high-susceptibility zones, while LightGBM yielded a similar estimate of 25.3%. High-susceptibility regions were concentrated in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Rakhine coastal plains, and the Yangon region. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified precipitation frequency, NDVI, and DEM as dominant factors, highlighting the ability of satellite-observed environmental indicators to capture flood-relevant surface processes. To incorporate exposure, population density and nighttime-light intensity were integrated with the susceptibility results to construct a natural–social flood risk framework. This observation-based and explainable approach demonstrates the applicability of multi-source remote sensing for flood assessment in data-scarce regions, offering a robust scientific basis for flood management and spatial planning in monsoon-affected areas. Full article

This study presents a practical early-warning approach for heavy rainfall detection using the temporal dynamics of satellite-derived Cloud-Top Temperature (CTT). A rapid rise followed by a sharp fall in CTT is identified as a precursor signal of convective intensification. By quantifying the $rise-peak-fall-trough$ pattern and the $peak$-to-$trough$ amplitude ($swing$), a $\mathrm{W}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{T}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{H}$ window—representing a potential heavy-rainfall candidate period—is defined. The observed lead time between the onset of CTT decline and the subsequent radar-observed rainfall surge is calculated, while an estimated lead time is inferred from the steepness of CTT fall in the absence of a surge. Application to eight heavy rainfall events in Korea (July 2025) yielded a probability of detection (POD) of 87.5%, indicating that potential heavy rainfall could be detected approximately 1.3–8.6 h in advance. Compared with radar-based nowcasting, the CTT $\mathrm{W}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{T}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{H}$ method retained predictive skill up to 3 h before numerical model guidance became effective, suggesting that satellite-based signals can bridge the forecast gap in short-term prediction. This work demonstrates a clear methodological novelty by introducing a physical interpretable, pattern-based metric. Quantitatively, the $\mathrm{W}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{T}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{H}$ method improves early-warning capability by providing 1–3 h of additional lead time relative to radar nowcasting in rapidly evolving convective environments. Overall, this framework provides an interpretable, low-cost module suitable for operational early-warning systems and flood preparedness applications. Full article

The Dvorak technique has represented a fundamental tool for understanding the power of tropical cyclones based on their shape and geometric evolution. However, it should be noted that the Dvorak technique is purely morphological in nature and was developed for wind, not precipitation. The role of shape methods in precipitation prediction remains uncertain, particularly in the context of modern multi-sensor capabilities. This uncertainty forms the motivation for the present study. In an attempt to enrich Dvorak’s technique, this study proposes a novel hypothesis. This study tests the hypothesis that higher precipitation intensity is associated with more organized cloud-system morphology, as captured by simple geometric descriptors and indicative of dynamically coherent convection. A total of 3419 cloud-system objects (after size filter) were utilized to establish geometric relationships in each of them. For the case study of Hurricane Patricia over the Mexican coast in 2015, 3858 geometric shapes were processed. The cloud-system morphology was derived from geostationary imagery (GOES-13) and collocated with satellite precipitation estimates in order to isolate intense-rainfall objects (>50 mm/h). For each object, simple geometric descriptors were computed, and shape variability was summarised via Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The present study sought to evaluate the associations with rain-rate metrics (mean, mode, maximum) using rank correlations and k-means clustering. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were conducted on the rain threshold and minimum object size. A Shape Descriptor: ratio between perimeter and diameter was identified as a promising tool to enhance early prediction models of extreme rainfall, contributing to enhanced meteorological risk management. The study indicates that cloud shape can serve as a valuable indicator in the classification and forecasting of intense cloud systems. Full article

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology has emerged as a valuable tool for atmospheric monitoring, providing high-resolution, near-real-time data that can significantly improve precipitation nowcasting. This study aims to enhance short-term precipitation forecasting by integrating GNSS-derived Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV)—a key indicator of atmospheric moisture—with traditional meteorological observations. A novel two-step machine learning framework is proposed that combines a Random Forest (RF) model and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The RF model first estimates current precipitation based on PWV, surface weather parameters, and auxiliary atmospheric variables. Then, the LSTM network leverages temporal dependencies within the data to predict precipitation for the subsequent hour. This hybrid method capitalizes on the RF’s ability to model complex nonlinear relationships and the LSTM’s strength in handling time series data. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves forecasting accuracy, particularly during extreme weather events such as intense rainfall and thunderstorms, outperforming conventional models. By integrating GNSS meteorology with advanced machine learning techniques, this study offers a promising tool for meteorological services, early warning systems, and disaster risk management. The findings highlight the potential of GNSS-based nowcasting for real-time decision-making in weather-sensitive applications. Full article

The satellite-derived climatic variables offer extensive spatial and temporal coverage for research; however, their inherent biases can subsequently reduce their accuracy for water balance estimate. This study evaluates the effectiveness of bias correction in improving the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land surface temperature (LST) data and illustrates their long-term (2000–2019) hydrological assessment. The novelty lies in coupling the bias-corrected climate variables with the Thornthwaite–Mather water balance model as well as land use land cover (LULC) for improved predictive hydrological modeling. Bias correction significantly improved the agreement with ground observations, enhancing the R² value from 0.89 to 0.96 for temperature and from 0.73 to 0.80 for rainfall, making targeted inputs ready to predict hydrological dynamics. LULC mapping showed a predominance of agricultural land (64.5%) in the area followed by settlements (20.0%), forest (7.3%), barren land (6.5%), and water bodies (1.7%), with soils being silt loam, clay loam, and clay. With these improved datasets, the model found seasonal rise in potential evapotranspiration (PET), peaking at 120.7 mm in June, with actual evapotranspiration (AET) following a similar trend. The annual water balance showed a surplus of 523.8 mm and deficit of 121.2 mm, which proves that bias correction not only enhances the reliability of satellite data but also reinforces the credibility of hydrological indicators, with a direct, positive impact on evidence-based irrigation planning and flood mitigation and drought management, especially in data-scarce regions. Full article