Search Results (16)

Accurate prediction and management of train dwell times are essential for achieving efficient and sustainable public transport operations. This study evaluates established statistical dwell-time models within the context of Victoria’s regional railway network, contrasting their predictions with empirical data from video-based observations. Historically, these models—rooted in linear and non-linear regression analyses—have been designed for urban settings in peak periods. However, their applicability to regional railways, characterised by lower service frequencies with unique infrastructure and operational constraints, has been underexplored. The models were assessed for their ability to predict both passenger flow time and total dwell time under regional operating conditions. Results show that while passenger flow time can be predicted with moderate accuracy (best model R² ≈ 0.65), total dwell time models perform considerably worse (best model R² ≈ 0.25), largely due to unmodelled operational delays. The analysis identifies door operation cycles and conductor procedures as the primary operational variables influencing variability in total dwell time. Additionally, variations in passenger behaviour between peak and off-peak periods affect model performance. The findings underscore the need to incorporate local operational and behavioural factors into dwell-time models to enhance their predictive reliability for regional rail contexts. This study provides an empirical foundation for refining dwell time modelling approaches, supporting policymakers and operators in improving scheduling efficiency and overall service sustainability in regional rail networks. Full article

With accelerating urbanization, the development of rail transit systems—particularly subways—has become a key strategy for alleviating urban traffic congestion. However, existing studies on subway station site selection often lack a spatially continuous evaluation of site suitability across the entire study area. This may lead to a disconnect between planning and actual demand, resulting in issues such as “overbuilt infrastructure” or the “island effect.” To address this issue, this study selects Kunming City, China, as the study area, employs the K-means++ algorithm to cluster existing subway stations based on passenger flow, integrates multi-source spatial data, applies a random forest algorithm for optimal positive sample selection and driving factor identification, and subsequently uses a LightGBM-SHAP explainable machine learning framework to develop a predictive model for station location based on mathematical modeling. The main findings of the study are as follows: (1) Using the random forest model, 20 key drivers influencing site selection were identified. SHAP analysis revealed that the top five contributing factors were connectivity, nighttime lighting, road network density, transportation service, and residence density. Among these, transportation-related factors accounted for three out of five and emerged as the primary determinants of subway station site selection. (2) The site selection prediction model exhibited strong performance, achieving an R² value of 0.95 on the test set and an average R² of 0.79 during spatial 5-fold cross-validation, indicating high model reliability. The spatial distribution of predicted suitability indicated that the core urban area within the Second Ring Road exhibited the highest suitability, with suitability gradually declining toward the periphery. High-suitability areas outside the Third Ring Road in suburban regions were primarily aligned along existing subway lines. (3) The cumulative predicted probability within a 300 m buffer zone around each station was positively correlated with passenger flow levels. Overlaying the predicted results with current station locations revealed strong spatial consistency, indicating that the model outputs closely align with the actual spatial layout and passenger usage intensity of existing stations. These findings provide valuable decision-making support for optimizing subway station layouts and planning future transportation infrastructure, offering both theoretical and practical significance for data-driven site selection. Full article

This study develops a high-speed rail demand prediction model based on access probability, which quantifies the likelihood of passengers choosing a departure station among multiple alternatives. Traditional models assign demand to the nearest station or rely on manual calibration, often failing to reflect actual travel behavior and requiring excessive time and resources. To address these limitations, this study integrates survey data, real-world datasets, and machine learning techniques to model station choice behavior more accurately. Key influencing factors, including headway, access time, parking availability, and transit connections, were identified through passenger surveys and incorporated into the model. Machine learning algorithms improved prediction accuracy, with SHAP analysis providing interpretability. The proposed model achieved high accuracy, with an average error rate below 3% for major stations. Scenario analyses confirmed its applicability in network expansions, including GTX openings and the integration of mobility as a service. This model enhances data-driven decision-making for rail operators and offers insights for rail network planning and operations. Future research will focus on validating the model across diverse regions and refining it with updated datasets and external data sources. Full article

Urban public transport represents a fundamental pillar of a sustainable transport system and a key subsystem within the broader mobility framework in urban environments. This paper focuses on the analysis and optimization of the public transport system in the city of Prievidza and the nearby town of Bojnice in Slovakia, which currently face challenges such as low system attractiveness, operational inefficiency, and weak integration with regional railway transport. This study presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of existing public transport services in Prievidza and Bojnice, including an assessment of passenger flows, line network structure, transfer connections, and operational parameters. Based on the identified deficiencies, a new urban public transport network system is proposed, emphasizing direct links to the railway network. This methodology is developed in the context of an integrated timed-transfer timetable, with defined system time slots at the main transfer hub and a newly designed line network with standardized paths and regular intervals. The proposed system ensures significantly improved connectivity between urban transport and rail services, reduces deadhead kilometres, lowers the number of required vehicles, and leads to a reduction in operational costs by up to 20%. The resulting model serves as a transferable example of efficient service planning in medium-sized cities, with a focus on functional integration, operational efficiency, and sustainable urban development. Full article

The role of high-speed rail (HSR) in facilitating the spatial restructuring of regional and urban networks has long interested scholars and policymakers. This study explored HSR-facilitated city-network evolution in less-developed regions through the example of Jiangxi Province, China. Applying social network analysis methods, the study calculated indicators of network association strength, density, centrality, and cohesive subgroups using HSR passenger flow data from Jiangxi’s counties and cities for the years of 2009, 2014, 2019, and 2024. The quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) method was utilized to measure the factors that influence of HSR passenger flow network in Jiangxi Province. Research on the spatial network structure of HSR passenger flow and its influencing factors to promote the sustainable development of less-developed regions via HSR construction was explored. The main findings are as follows: Jiangxi’s city-network structure experienced a substantial increase from 2009 to 2024 in network properties, including the degree of association, network density, and the centrality of cities. The structure of the subgroups remained relatively stable, with a few exceptions. Cities in different subgroups form close and strong connections with each other resulting from HSR. HSR has effectively shortened the time and space distances and enhanced the spatial links between cities. Five factors, including population size, geographic distance, spatial proximity, economic development, and administrative hierarchy, demonstrated significant impacts on the HSR passenger flow network in Jiangxi Province. As HSR services continue to expand throughout the less-developed regions, optimizing HSR’s network effects should focus on strengthening the driving role of central HSR cities, promoting cross-regional coordination, and integrating HSR fully with other transportation modes. Full article

Population and tourism growth has increased congestion, collisions, climate harming emissions, and transport inequities in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia (B.C.), Canada. Surveys indicate a willingness among residents to switch from cars to public transit featuring better service levels and connections. We conducted an analysis on the economic feasibility of an Okanagan Valley Electric Regional Passenger Rail (OVER PR) powered by zero-emission (ZE) Fuel Cell/Battery Hybrid Rail (Hydrail) technology along a 342-km route between Osoyoos, B.C., at the US Border and Kamloops, B.C., the Canadian VIA rail hub. Hydrail passenger light-rail has operated successfully since 2018 in Germany and was demonstrated in Quebec, Canada, in 2023. Technical analyses have confirmed the feasibility in B.C. on steep Highway (Hwy) 97 grades and mountainous weather, with mode shift forecasts in the range of 30%. OVER PR economic analyses were also favorable, with net present value (NPV) = CAD 40 billion (CDN, base year 2023), benefit–cost ratio (BCR) = 9:1, and Return on Investments (IRR) = 33% over 30 years. Subject to additional stakeholder consultations and final design reviews, these results were tested against risks using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Reference-Class Forecasting (RCF), including worst-case risks such as 70% cost over-runs. OVER PR promises an economic transition to clean energy, sustainable transportation, and more livable communities, benefiting all Valley communities through greater transportation equity. Full article

Booming population and tourism have increased congestion, collisions, climate-harming emissions, and transport inequities in The Okanagan Valley, Canada. Surveys suggest that over 30% of residents would shift from cars back to public transit and intercity tram–trains if regional service and connections were improved. Intercity streetcars (aka light-rail tram–trains) have not run in Canada since their replacement in the 1950′s by the national highway system. UBC researchers analyzed a tram–train service fashioned after the current Karlsruhe model but powered by zero-emission hydrogen fuel cell/battery hybrid rail power (hydrail) technology, along a 342 km route between Osoyoos, B.C. at the US Border and Kamloops, B.C., the Canadian VIA rail hub. Hydrail trains have operated successfully since 2018 in Germany and were demonstrated in Quebec, Canada in 2023. However, hydrail combined with tram–train technology has never been tried in Canada. Single-train simulations (STSs) confirmed its technical feasibility, showing a roughly 8 h roundtrip travel time, at an average train velocity of 86 km/h. Each hydrail tram–train consumed 2400 kWh of energy, translating to 144 kg of hydrogen fuel per roundtrip. In total, five tons of H₂/day would be consumed over 16 h daily by the 16-tram–train-vehicle fleet. The results provide valuable insights into technical aspects and energy requirements, serving as a foundation for future studies and decision-making processes in developing zero-emission passenger tram–train services not just for Okanagan Valley communities but all of Canada and NA. Full article

Urban rail transit stations serve as pivotal hubs that facilitate the advancement of diverse economic activities. Based on different types of metro stations, the sustainable and coordinated development of public transport and land use can be achieved through rational land use planning and the rational allocation of urban infrastructure and public service facilities. Drawing upon mobile phone signaling data and land use data, this article presents a complex classification methodology for metro stations, employing the lens of “passenger flow behavior—land use structure—job-housing density” in the context of Xi’an. The stations are categorized into six distinct types, including employment-led stations with a job–housing density balance, as well as stations characterized by job–housing mismatch with a high residential density. The results indicate a low level of coupling between the passenger flow patterns of the stations and the spatial characteristics of the station areas. In addition, the spatial distributions of the stations demonstrate a significant aggregation effect in each station type, while the degree of integration between the different station types remains limited. These findings collectively suggest that the urban rail transit stations in Xi’an have not achieved complementary development, thereby reflecting a notable trend of cross-regional commuter flow in the city. Full article

Currently, in the course of the German mobility transition, an increasing number of disused rail lines are already being or intended to be reactivated in order to increase capacities, decrease transport-related emissions and reconnect rural areas to passenger rail services, thus creating a more comprehensive rail service. However, the use of state-of-the-art regional railcars on old rural infrastructure often leads to problems since they are often worn out and do not meet today’s technical standards. This applies, for example, to the axle loads and dimensions of the vehicles but also to operational aspects, such as the vehicle’s passenger capacity and accessibility. First, this work gives an overview of the available rolling stock and the given infrastructure, as well as an analysis of the (system) interfaces. Subsequently, various challenges for the re-connection of peripheral areas to the rail network were identified through data research and comparison of the vehicle and infrastructure parameters. In addition, the requirements related to possible autonomous operation and the related absence of the driver and crew personnel in the vehicle, which require new solutions in terms of safety, were taken into consideration. Orientation of future rolling stock generations towards the existing infrastructure and the required transport needs, including lower axle loads, accessibility and smaller capacities, can contribute to the economic operation of low-capacity lines and bring more passengers to public transport. Full article

Among the benefits of high-speed rails (HSRs) discussed from various aspects, indirect benefits may contribute to medium- and long-term economic impacts such as an increase in service supply and gross regional product (GRP). In order to estimate the economic impacts, we modeled I/O–spatial interaction by combining the inter–industrial transactions shown on the I/O table with the geospatial distance decay of economic mass through passenger transportation. In addition, the regional economic impacts, as a part of the indirect benefits, were evaluated by the model applied to the Mumbai–Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (MAHSR) corridor in India, which is an emerging country with remarkable economic growth. The results showed the economic impacts on each zone and each industry along the MAHSR corridor as a relative distribution. The unique feature of this approach is that it is possible to evaluate the geographic distributions and interregional disparity of economic impacts by combining the industrial I/O relationships with the changes in passenger accessibility associated with a large-scale transportation project such as an HSR. Moreover, this method can be applied to various countries and regions where detailed I/O statistical data, such as interregional I/O tables, are difficult to obtain, as well as various transportation project evaluations taking into account interregional equity. Full article

With the rapid development of the economy, the existing conventional bus transit system finds it difficult to meet people’s increasing travel needs. In addition, with the emergence and rapid development of urban rail transit, it is also necessary to integrate the existing conventional bus transit system with the rail transit system to realize the optimization of the whole public transport system. This study introduces the concept of the Voronoi diagram and uses it to divide the service area of bus stops. Taking the average walking time of regional passengers to the station as the main index, the convenience of passengers in the service area was evaluated, and a set of candidate station sites is established. Against the background of urban rail transit, a complete optimization model for a conventional bus station layout and line network was proposed. Finally, taking Wuhan East Lake High-tech Development Zone as an example, two optimization schemes for the public transport system were obtained. Compared with the status quo, the optimized scheme had obvious improvement effects on the repetition coefficient of bus lines, per capita transfer time, bus line network coverage and station service rate. This has been recognized by the local authorities, which proves the practicality and scientificity of the optimization method of this study. Full article

Freight rail transport plays key role in the transition to sustainable development. However, on European mainlines, freight trains have to cope with busy passenger operation—mostly in the form of (integrated) periodic timetables. Freight trains are characterized with very diverse parameters, so scheduling pre-arranged periodic freight train paths (PFTPs) on the basis of one sample freight train does not meet the needs of most freight operators. This article introduces new detailed framework process for hierarchized construction of differentiated (segmented) pre-arranged PFTPs. The process considers fluctuations in demand for capacity from freight rail operators, so the quality of a freight train path in terms of number of stops is related with its construction priority. This way, the process enhances competitiveness and decreases energy consumption of freight railway, as a factor for sustainable development. Correctness of the framework process is tested on the example of the Prague—Dresden mainline, in the context of prospective (denser) model passenger timetable. Results show that above 70% of real freight trains from the available historical data can fit into the proposed PFTPs. As a conclusion, the authors recommend reduction of service of the least frequent stops of regional trains to reduce number of scheduled stops for freight trains. Full article

Battery electric multiple units (BEMU) are an effective path towards a decarbonized regional rail transport on partly electrified rail lines. As a means of sector coupling, the BEMU recharging energy demand provided through overhead line islands can be covered from decentralized renewable energy sources (RES). Thus, fully carbon-free electricity for rail transport purposes can be obtained. In this study, we analyze cost reduction potentials of efficient recharging infrastructure positioning and the feasibility of covering BEMU energy demand by direct-use of locally produced renewable electricity. Therefore, we set up a model-based approach which assesses relevant lifecycle costs (LCC) of different trackside electrification alternatives comparing energy supply from local RES and grid consumption. The model-based approach is applied to the example of a German regional rail line. In the case of an overhead line island, the direct-use of electricity from adjacent wind power plants with on-site battery storage results in relevant LCC of EUR 173.4 M/30a, while grid consumption results in EUR 176.2 M/30a whereas full electrification results in EUR 224.5 M/30a. Depending on site-specific factors such as existing electrification and line lengths, BEMU operation and partial overhead line extension can lead to significant cost reductions of recharging infrastructure as compared to full electrification. Full article

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic that was reported at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China, and was rapidly disseminated to all provinces in around one month. The study aims to assess the changes in intercity railway passenger transport on the early spatial transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China. Examining the role of railway transport properties in disease transmission could help quantify the spatial spillover effects of large-scale travel restriction interventions. This study used daily high-speed railway schedule data to compare the differences in city-level network properties (destination arrival and transfer service) before and after the Wuhan city lockdown in the early stages of the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China. Bayesian multivariate regression was used to examine the association between structural changes in the railway origin-destination network and the incidence of COVID-19 cases. Our results show that the provinces with rising transfer activities after the Wuhan city lockdown had more confirmed COVID-19 cases, but changes in destination arrival did not have significant effects. The regions with increasing transfer activities were located in provinces neighboring Hubei in the widthwise and longitudinal directions. These results indicate that transfer activities enhance interpersonal transmission probability and could be a crucial risk factor for increasing epidemic severity after the Wuhan city lockdown. The destinations of railway passengers might not be affected by the Wuhan city lockdown, but their itinerary routes could be changed due to the replacement of an important transfer hub (Wuhan city) in the Chinese railway transportation network. As a result, transfer services in the high-speed rail network could explain why the provinces surrounded by Hubei had a higher number of confirmed COVID-19 cases than other provinces. Full article

There is little research on the impact of air cargo networks on regional economic development, which is especially notable considering that Chinese airlines gradually adjusted their networks after the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR). This empirical study aims to fill this research gap. Firstly, we used the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to study the effect of the air cargo network on the regional economy. The results show that, in eastern and central China, the higher the clustering coefficient of the domestic air cargo network, the more significant their promotion effect becomes on the GDP per capita, with cities in eastern China benefitting the most from this effect. However, for super-scale cities, the clustering coefficient of the domestic air cargo network has a significant negative effect on the GDP per capita, which is likely because both the air and HSR passenger services crowd out the development opportunities for air cargo. Secondly, we applied the Difference-in-Difference (DID) method in order to measure the impact on the regional economy caused by air cargo under the impact of HSR. The results show that the aviation network adjusted for the impact of HSR produces heterogeneous effects on cities for different regions and scales, and that the international aviation network has greater impacts on cities than the domestic network. In eastern China, HSR and air cargo (both international and domestic networks) promote economic growth simultaneously; in central China, only domestic air cargo has a positive effect on the regional economy; in western China, neither HSR nor air cargo has an obvious effect on the regional economy. Policy implications—such as encouraging the cooperation of HSR and civil aviation—are discussed, and could help bring the functions of the air cargo network in regional economic development into full play. Full article