Search Results (143)

This study investigates the macroeconomic, institutional, and energy-related determinants of agricultural value added in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period 2000–2023, with particular emphasis on whether international clean energy finance operates as a conditionally effective driver depending on energy endowments. Using a panel fixed-effects framework with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors to address cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and serial correlation, the analysis incorporates an interaction term between clean energy finance and an oil-exporting dummy to capture structural heterogeneity. Robustness is ensured through Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs), Granger causality tests, and System GMM estimation. The findings reveal that GDP per capita and clean energy finance are positively and significantly associated with agricultural value added, while trade openness negatively affects the sector. Importantly, the interaction results indicate strong asymmetry: the positive contribution of clean energy finance is concentrated in non-oil economies but becomes weak or insignificant in oil-exporting countries, consistent with diminishing marginal returns in energy-abundant contexts. Inflation captures nominal price effects, while short-run dynamics suggest the presence of adjustment costs. Overall, the study highlights that clean energy finance acts as a structurally conditional mechanism, offering nuanced and policy-relevant insights for sustainable agricultural transformation in MENA economies. Full article

This study examines the asymmetric responses of stock market indices in Türkiye and Kazakhstan to oil price shocks during the 2010–2025 period. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study decomposes the nonlinear effects of oil price fluctuations on financial markets. Empirical findings reveal that in Türkiye, a net oil importer, the stock market exhibits a dual-sensitivity: while exchange rate dynamics (2.34) remain the dominant driver, oil price increases (−0.12) exert a direct and statistically significant negative pressure. In contrast, Kazakhstan, a net oil exporter, shows a high vulnerability to oil price decreases (−1.05) at the 1% significance level, confirming a strong asymmetric structure (p = 0.0122). Furthermore, the error correction speed is significantly higher in Türkiye (28%) than in Kazakhstan (4%), indicating divergent market efficiency and recovery mechanisms. These results demonstrate that financial market reactions to external shocks differ fundamentally based on energy trade structures. The findings suggest that oil-importing countries must prioritize exchange rate stability, while oil-exporting nations must develop specific policy buffers against the persistent downside risks of global energy cycles. Full article

Sustainable economic development involves reducing heavy reliance on fossil energy resources and their associated environmental impacts. The complexity of this task increases significantly in oil-producing countries, given the hydrocarbons’ role in economic growth, GDP, and exports. In such cases, decoupling economic growth, energy consumption and emissions should be achieved gradually to ensure a smooth transition, which will require the development of a reliable approach. This study aims to develop a strategy to identify potential pathways for economic growth and energy decoupling in the oil industry. Given the characteristics of the transition process, the feasibility of long-term solutions remains uncertain, and special measures are needed to enhance the reliability of decisions. An approach that combines assessing the economic–environment–emissions nexus, developing fuzzy transition scenarios, and applying multi-criteria and probabilistic decision-making methods has been designed to identify reliable pathways for the energy transition and sustainable development in oil-dependent countries. This allows us to create reliable and compromise scenarios that consider social, technological, environmental, economic and political factors. This study employed Azerbaijan as a case study. Analysis of key indicators revealed strong correlations between country GDP, energy production, and emissions. The MCDM calculations of the obtained feasible scenarios show the optimality of the scenario assuming a decrease in oil production while maintaining natural gas as usual, significantly increasing solar, and moderately increasing wind and hydro energy production. Decisions reflect global economic and energy-sector trends, expert opinions, and the current realities of Azerbaijan’s economy. Full article

The volatility of oil prices has a considerable impact on the economies of oil-exporting countries, making it critical to understand how price variations affect labour markets and unemployment. This study investigates the distinct role of labour market institutions in moderating the effects of oil price volatility on unemployment. Using the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (CS-ARDL) on a panel dataset of nine African oil-exporting countries from 1994 to 2024, the study establishes a strong negative link between oil price changes and unemployment. Furthermore, the results show that real GDP growth leads to a reduction in unemployment in the long run, while the labour market institutional index has a negative impact on unemployment. Interacting the oil price with the labour market institutional index causes a further reduction in unemployment. These results suggest that good labour market institutions and macroeconomic stability are essential for reducing unemployment. While increases in oil prices directly stimulate a reduction in unemployment in African oil-exporting countries, this impact is reinforced by the presence of good labour market institutions in an economy. Therefore, the results suggest that countries with strong labour market institutions are more resilient in reducing the negative impact of oil price volatility on employment. As such, policymakers must prioritise labour market institutional reforms to enhance countries’ capacity to absorb oil price shocks and reduce unemployment during periods of oil prosperity and shield against employment declines when oil prices drop. Furthermore, the creation of oil stabilisation funds in these countries may serve a similar purpose. Contribution/originality: Against a background of inconclusive empirical evidence in the literature and a dearth of research on African countries, this study investigates the role of labour market institutions (LMIs) in the oil price–unemployment nexus in African oil-exporting countries. While highly dependent on oil revenue, these countries record persistent structural unemployment. Therefore, the study provides critical evidence to guide the formulation of policies necessary to deal with external shocks and facilitate structural shifts required for employment growth. Existing studies consider general institutional variables such as democratic accountability and the rule of law and do not assess the effect of labour market institutions. The current study fills in this gap by assessing the distinct role of labour market institutions that are specifically designed to regulate only work-related activities, such as quality of labour regulations, adequacy of social protection and unemployment benefits. Furthermore, this study employed the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) for econometric estimations. Compared to previous studies, this is a more appropriate method that accounts for unobserved common factors such as oil price shocks affecting all oil-exporting countries simultaneously. Full article

This study examines the short-run dynamics and long-run determinants of bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Jordan during the period of 1995–2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Employing a country-pair time series framework, the analysis examines how economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation differentials, and crude oil prices affect trade volume between the two countries over time. The ARDL bound test confirms the presence of long run cointegration among the variables. The Long-run results suggest that crude oil prices, inflation differential, and FDI exert positive and statistically significant effects on bilateral trade, while Saudi economic growth and FDI show negative long-run effects, suggesting that Saudi’s economy structural characteristic and domestic absorption may decrease the demand for Jordanian’s products in the long-run. The short-run results reveal a negative and statistically significant error-correction term, confirming convergence toward long-run equilibrium with approximately 32.16% of deviations corrected each year, implying a moderate speed of adjustment following economic shocks. In the short-run, economic growth, FDI, Inflations differentials, and oil prices exert significant but mixed effect on trade volume, with oil prices emerging as the most influential determinant. Several variables displayed lagged responses due to adjustment costs, production constraints, and contractual rigidities between the two countries. Overall, the findings contribute new time-series evidence on the macroeconomic drivers of bilateral trade between an oil-exporting economy such as Saudi Arabia and a neighboring non-oil-exporting partner like Jordan, offering policy insights for strengthening trade integration and economic cooperation. Full article

Background: This study revisits whether oil revenue windfalls translate into higher socio-economic welfare in oil-exporting economies and explains why oil price booms often fail to generate sustained gains in real GDP per capita. Methods: Using annual data for ten oil-exporting countries over 1990–2024, we estimate country-specific ARDL/ECM models under a unified specification. The dependent variable is log real GDP per capita, explained by log real oil prices, the log share of government expenditure in GDP, population growth, and world GDP growth, with political and devaluation dummies where relevant. Results: Cointegration and significant error correction terms hold for most exporters, but adjustment speeds differ sharply. Long-run oil price elasticities are heterogeneous: strongly positive in Qatar, weak or insignificant in several cases (including Azerbaijan), and negative in a post-rentier pattern (UAE/Oman). Fiscal and demographic channels emerge as systematic constraints: government expenditure shares are often negatively associated with long-run welfare, and population growth typically reduces GDP per capita. World GDP growth is generally positive but uneven in significance. Conclusions: Resource use is conditional: welfare outcomes depend on fiscal regimes, demographic pressures, and structural transformation rather than windfall size alone. Full article

Oil prices have always been considered critical determinants of economic stability and food security in oil-dependent economies. Several studies have examined the existence, direction, strength, and predictability of the relationship between oil price and agricultural commodities. However, prior studies have not explicitly examined the interlinkages between oil prices and food security at both macroeconomic and microeconomic levels, particularly for Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which differ fundamentally as a net oil-importing and a major oil-exporting economy, respectively. This study employs a multi-sectoral, multi-country regional computable general equilibrium model specifically designed to simulate the effects of global oil and natural gas price increases in both Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The results reveal marked asymmetries in the magnitude and direction of impacts across the two countries. Egypt is negatively affected by its status as a net importer of petroleum products, leading to an increase in costs and adversely affecting the overall economy. In contrast, Saudi Arabia experiences net positive macroeconomic effects, benefiting from increased oil revenues as an exporting country. Overall, the gains realized by Saudi Arabia substantially exceed the losses incurred by Egypt, underscoring the differences between the exporting and importing countries. Therefore, this study recommends that policymakers respond swiftly and effectively to limit volatility in agricultural production and food prices and to safeguard food security outcomes. Moreover, the study highlights avenues for future research, including the role of renewable energy transitions and subsidy reforms, to further enhance the policy relevance of energy–food security analyses. Full article

As a strategic energy source underpinning industrial security, oil’s resource consumption is often tied to its production site. However, its embedding in goods and trade-related transfer leads to a spatial dislocation between physical supply burden and economic consumption demand, masking the true structure of energy dependency. Focusing on China, a net exporter of embodied oil, this study uses a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model and structural path analysis (SPA) spanning the period from 2007 to 2017 to trace such flows. Key findings include: (1) China’s embodied oil flows expanded during the study period, with the country remaining a net exporter. (2) On the production side, embodied oil mainly flows out indirectly. Specifically, Liaoning and Shanghai are the core provinces for domestic indirect outflows, while Guangdong and Jiangsu lead in foreign trade exports. In terms of sectors, transportation, warehousing, and postal services play a pivotal role. (3) On the consumption side, flows are also primarily indirect. Guangdong and Jiangsu absorb the largest share of domestic flows, while Liaoning and Shanghai record the highest indirect import volumes. The construction and other service sectors emerge as the core consumers. Methodologically, this study goes beyond aggregate analysis by providing empirical support for optimizing the cross-regional allocation of oil resources and identifying key transmission nodes of energy supply risks. In terms of policy, it designs coordinated conservation strategies to enhance national oil security. Full article

This paper examines whether oil price volatility accelerates or decelerates the global sustainable energy transition by analyzing the differential responses of oil exporters and oil importers. Using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) estimation on a balanced panel of 30 countries (2002–2023), this study investigates the long-term sustainability of energy shifts under market uncertainty. We find significant asymmetric impacts: oil-exporting countries demonstrate a strong, positive long-run response to volatility, suggesting that price uncertainty acts as a catalyst for economic diversification and sustainable investments in renewables as a strategic risk management tool. Conversely, oil-importing countries show no significant volatility response; their transition toward sustainability is primarily driven by economic growth rather than oil market forces. The error correction mechanisms reveal annual adjustment rates of 35.9% for importers and 21.5% for exporters, confirming stable long-run sustainable development relationships. These findings challenge the hypothesis of a uniform global transition, highlighting that achieving sustainability goals is highly dependent on a nation’s position in international oil markets, necessitating tailored policy frameworks for a resilient energy future. Full article

This study employs a modern GARCH framework to conduct a comparative analysis of the volatility transmission between crude oil prices and a comprehensive set of financial assets, including sectoral equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies, across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Our central finding reveals a stark pre-pandemic dichotomy: before COVID-19, oil price volatility exhibited a significant positive correlation with nearly all sectoral stock returns in oil-exporting countries (the United States and Canada), reflecting a systemic, demand-driven linkage. In contrast, this relationship was largely insignificant in oil-importing countries (the United Kingdom, France, and Japan), with the exception of the energy sector. The COVID-19 crisis temporarily erased this fundamental distinction, as sectoral stock markets in both country groups moved in significant positive correlation with oil, driven by the synchronized global demand shock. This transition underscores that the oil–equity relationship is structurally determined by a country’s net oil trade position, a dynamic that can be overridden during systemic global crises. These findings offer crucial insights for international portfolio diversification and risk management. Full article

This paper examines the impact of different oil price benchmarks on the revenue profile of OPEC countries from 1990 to 2024. While there are prior studies on this subject, most of these studies adopted a symmetrical approach, overlooking the asymmetric effects of price shocks on government revenues. Additionally, prior research often aggregates oil price benchmarks, simplifying the complex dynamics influencing OPEC revenues. This study fills these gaps by evaluating both symmetrical and asymmetrical responses of the revenue profiles of OPEC countries to major global oil price benchmarks—NYMEX WTI, ICE Brent, DME Oman, and the OPEC reference basket. The study employs linear and nonlinear panel (ARDL) models on annual data from 1990 to 2024. The linear ARDL results indicate that government revenues respond positively to ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and OPEC spot prices but negatively to DME Oman prices. The nonlinear ARDL model reveals asymmetric responses: revenue is more sensitive to negative shocks in ICE Brent and OPEC prices, while DME Oman price increases reduce revenues. Notably, NYMEX WTI fluctuations have minimal impact. The main conclusion of the paper is that OPEC’s fiscal stability is highly vulnerable to asymmetric, long-run oil price shocks. The study recommends policymakers adopt benchmark-specific fiscal hedging strategies, such as put options, and strategically diversify export markets to mitigate risk. Full article

This research proposes a bioeconomy model that integrates the principles of Marketing 3.0 with the concept of a biorefinery to valorize the Creole-Antillean avocado cultivated in the Montes de María region, Colombia. The study emerges from the absence of commercial strategies that articulate social responsibility and economic viability in the use of agricultural by-products, considering that the current industry is almost exclusively focused on the Hass variety. The methodology employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative analyses. Market studies, consumer segmentation, competition and trend analyses were conducted, along with the use of the TradeMap platform to identify export opportunities and the international positioning of avocado-derived products. In the experimental phase, the production processes were validated: bio-oil was extracted through the Soxhlet method using solvents, while chlorophyll and biocontrol agents were isolated with ethanol, ensuring efficiency and scalability. The results obtained through Aspen Plus simulation were validated by comparing software outputs with data reported in the literature. The model includes a corporate social responsibility section that evaluates the regional impact, highlighting job creation, community inclusion, and the strengthening of the social fabric. Results show that in 2023, Mexico led exports with 1,220,919 tons, followed by the Netherlands and Peru, while Colombia reached 114,741 tons, consolidating itself as a country with high growth potential. The findings suggest that the valorization of the Creole-Antillean variety represents a strategic opportunity to diversify the agroindustry, strengthen competitiveness, create employment, reduce waste, and guide investment decisions in bioeconomy, sustainability, promoting rural development and green innovation in Colombia. Full article

Different resources of energy are unevenly distributed around the world. Not every country has energy resources of its own. Those that have, may experience inadequacy in meeting domestic demand. Countries have to import the needed energy regardless of the size of worldwide price fluctuations and crises that come into existence in the global marketplace, which works in favor of energy-exporting countries. Foreign dependence on energy negatively affects the current account balance. Energy importation has an important share in the current account deficit of non-oil-exporting countries, such as Türkiye, in which as a developing country with a young and growing population, energy demand is increasing, and new natural gas and oil reserves as well as renewable energy sources are sought in order to remove foreign dependency. This study aims to determine the effect of making use of renewable energy sources on the current account deficit for a selected sample of countries which consist of 12 European Union (EU) and International Energy Agency (IEA) members including Türkiye. A balanced panel data regression analysis was conducted using the data of these countries for the period of 2000–2022. As a result of the analysis with the Driscoll–Kraay estimator, it was observed that as the share of renewable energy sources in total energy consumption increases, a reducing effect is achieved in terms of current account deficit. As renewable energy technologies develop, countries will have access to energy. This will reduce their foreign exchange expenditure, decrease their current account deficit, and strengthen price stability and growth performance. Full article

For a long time, the explanation of the various determinants of oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic activity has been based on the supply and demand mechanism. However, with various volatile changes in the international situation in recent years, such as threats to public health and an increase in regional conflicts, special attention has been paid to the geopolitical context as an additional driver of oil price fluctuations. This study examines the relationship between oil price changes and GDP growth and other macroeconomic variables from the perspective of the vulnerability of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries to unexpected oil price shocks, driven by tense geopolitical events, in three European countries (Norway, Germany, and Poland). We apply the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model and orthogonalized impulse response functions, based on quarterly data, in regard to two samples: the first spans 1995Q1–2019Q4 (pre-2020 sample), with relatively gradual changes in oil prices, and the second spans 1995Q1–2024Q2 (whole sample), with sudden fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical developments. A key finding of this research is that vulnerability to unpredictable oil price shocks related to geopolitical tensions is higher than in regard to expected gradual changes in oil prices, both in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Different causality patterns and stronger responses in regard to GDP growth during the period, including in regard to tense geopolitical events in comparison to the pre-2020 sample, lead to the belief that economies are not more resilient to oil price shocks as has been suggested by some studies, which referred to periods that were not driven by geopolitical events. Our research also suggests that countries implementing policies to reduce oil dependency and promote investment in alternative energy sources are better equipped to mitigate the adverse effects of oil price shocks. Full article

Oil, as a key commodity in international markets, bears an importance for both producers and consumers. For oil-exporting countries, periodic fluctuations have a considerable impact on the economic status and the way monetary and fiscal policies should be conducted in the future. While most of academic efforts tried to link low-frequency real exchange rate with macroeconomic fundamentals for medium-/long-term inference, they omitted to gauge the volatile and complex high-frequency linkage between oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations. The inherent non-linear characteristics of such time series preclude the use of traditional tools or aggregated schemes based on lower frequencies for inference purposes. This work investigates the scale-based volatile linkage between daily international oil fluctuations and nominal exchange rate variations of an oil-exporting country, namely Algeria, by adopting a fractal regression approach to uncover the power-law, time-varying transmission and track its incidence in the short and long runs. Results show the absence of any short-term transmission mechanism from oil prices to the exchange rate, as the two variables remain decoupled but exhibit an increasing negative correlation when long scales are considered. Furthermore, the multiscale regression analysis confirms the existence of a scale-free, two-state Markov switching regime process generating short- and long-term impacts with sizeable amplitudes. The findings confirm the usefulness of monetary policy interventions to stabilize the local currency, as the source of Dollar–Dinar multifractality was found to be the probability distribution of observations rather than long-range correlations specific to oil prices. Full article