Search Results (292)

Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of each country. Alongside oil and gold, the main commodities traded include industrial metals, such as aluminum and copper, mineral products such as gas, electrical and electronic components, agricultural products, and precious metals. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine tested the unification of markets, given that these are countries with notable raw materials and are strongly dedicated to exports. This suggests that commodity prices were able to influence the stock markets, especially in the countries most closely linked to the two belligerents in terms of import-export. Given the importance of industrial metals in this period of energy transition, the aim of our study is to analyze whether Industrial Metals volatility affects G7 stock markets. To this end, the BEKK-GARCH model is used. The sample period spans from 3 January 2018 to 17 September 2024. The results show that lagged shocks and volatility significantly and positively influence the current conditional volatility of commodity and stock returns during all periods. In fact, past shocks inversely influence the current volatility of stock indices in periods when external events disrupt financial markets. The results show a non-linear and positive impact of commodity volatility on the implied volatility of the stock markets. The findings suggest that the war significantly affected stock prices and exacerbated volatility, so investors should diversify their portfolios to maximize returns and reduce risk differently in times of crisis, and a lack of diversification of raw materials is a risky factor for investors. Full article

During the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), organized under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and hosted by the United Arab Emirates, member nations reached a global agreement to begin transitioning away from fossil fuel dependence, forcing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to balance their commitment to a green transition with the need to secure short-term energy supplies. This study highlights the challenges facing the GCC’s efforts to expand renewable energy, even as the region continues to have a significant influence over international energy markets. This study utilizes dynamic panel estimation over the period 2003 to 2022, focusing on the core pillars of the Energy Transition Index to analyze the evolving renewable energy use in the GCC. The results present a clear and optimistic perspective on the region’s renewable energy prospects. Despite the continued dependence on fossil fuels, the findings indicate that, if effectively managed, oil and gas revenues can serve as strategic instruments to support the transition toward cleaner energy sources. These insights offer policymakers robust guidance for long-term energy planning and highlight the critical importance of international collaboration in advancing the GCC’s sustainable energy transition. Full article

If new technologies can increase production efficiency and reduce the consumption of natural resources, they can also bring new environmental risks. This dynamic is particularly relevant for the automotive industry, since it is one of the sectors that invests most in R&D, but at the same time also contributes a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions and consumes a large amount of energy. This article aims to analyze the feasibility of meeting the environmental targets in place within 32 European countries in light of the recent technological trajectory of the automotive industry, namely with regard to the adoption of the propulsion model’s alternative to oil and diesel. Using data disaggregated by countries from 2000 up until 2020, in this paper, the estimated regressions aimed to not only verify whether electrical vehicles had a positive impact on CO₂ emissions found in the European market, but to also assess whether they will meet the target set for the next 30 years, with attention to the economy recovery after 2025 and a more robust EV market penetration in replacement of traditional fossil fuels cars. Full article

Based on the theoretical framework of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV), this paper combines the Dynamic Generalized Correlation (DGC) model with the t-distribution, establishes the DGC-t-MSV model, and employs the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on the Bayesian principle for efficient estimation to investigate the price volatility spillover effects in China’s energy supply chains. The results of this study indicate the following: (1) The upstream crude oil spot price has a positive spillover effect on the midstream freight price. The downstream diesel market price, 92 gasoline market price, and 95 gasoline market price all exert positive volatility spillovers on the midstream crude oil freight price. (2) The volatility spillover effect between the upstream power coal price and the midstream coal freight price exhibits unidirectionality, and the volatility is transmitted from the power coal price to the coal freight price. (3) The upstream natural gas price and the midstream liquefied natural gas market price display asymmetric characteristics. Among them, the upstream natural gas price has a unidirectional and more pronounced positive volatility spillover effect on the midstream liquefied natural gas market price. Full article

This paper employs a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Directional–Spillover (TVP-VAR-DY) model to investigate the dynamic spillover effects among China’s energy, real estate, and stock markets from 2013 to 2023, with a focus on the impact of extreme events. The findings show that the total conditional spillover index (TCI) typically remains below 40% in the absence of extreme events, but significantly increases during such events, reaching 51.09% during the 2015 stock market crisis and nearing 60% during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Specifically, the oil and gas market exhibited a net spillover index of 4.61%, emerging as a major source of risk transmission. In contrast, the real estate market, which had a net spillover index of −9.38%, became a net risk absorber. The net spillover index indicates that the risk transmission role of different markets towards other markets is dynamically changing over time and is closely related to significant global or domestic economic events. These results indicate that extreme events not only directly impact specific markets but also rapidly propagate risks through complex inter-market linkages, exacerbating systemic risks. Therefore, it is recommended to enhance market monitoring, improve transparency, and optimize risk management strategies to cope with uncertainties in the global economy and financial markets. Full article

This study is the first to use the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt Change, Seasonality, and Trend (BEAST) algorithm to detect trend change points in the nexuses between the green bond index (Green Bond) and WTI of crude oil, gasoline, as well as natural gas futures. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war are identified as common significant trend change points, and the total sample is subsequently divided into three stages based on these points. Utilizing a skewed MF-DCCA method, this study analyzed the skewed multifractal characteristics between the Green Bond and the energy futures across these stages. The results revealed that both the multifractal characteristics and risk levels experienced significant changes across different periods, exhibiting skewed multifractality. Specifically, from the pre-pandemic period to the post-Russia–Ukraine conflict period, the multifractal features and risk of the Green Bond and WTI and Green Bond and Gasoline groups first declined and then increased, while the Green Bond and Natural Gas group displayed an opposite trend, showing an initial increase followed by a decline. A portfolio analysis further indicated that Green Bond provided effective hedging against all three types of energy futures, particularly during crisis periods. Notably, the portfolios constructed using the Mean-MF-DCCA model, which incorporated multifractal features, outperformed those constructed by traditional portfolio models. These findings offered new insights into the dynamic characteristics of the Green Bond and energy futures markets and provided important policy implications for portfolio optimization and risk management strategies. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war have struck the world’s energy markets. This study analyzed how the recent unstable fossil fuel markets impacted the Japanese electricity contracts, classified as extra-high-, high-, and low-voltage contracts. Multiple structural break tests were conducted to endogenously determine breaks affecting electricity prices during January 2019 to November 2022. By incorporating the effects of these breaks in the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the study analyzed the effects of natural gas, coal, and crude oil prices on the types of electricity contract prices. The results of the analyses indicated a surge in electricity prices for low- and high-voltage contracts driven by an increase in natural gas. The results imply the importance of providing proper financial support to mitigate the effects of soaring electricity prices and implementing policies to diversify the electricity generation mix in Japan. Full article

The demand for palm oil is expected to increase due to its wide use in the market. Palm oil is extracted from the fruit of the African palm tree, yielding crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO). The production process involves multiple stages, from harvesting to drying; while the problem lies in the scarcity of fresh fruit bunches and the lack of diagnosis of the process. This study proposes to carry out a WEP (Water–Energy–Product) technical assessment to optimize the use of water, energy, and raw materials in the production of CPO, calculating a series of technical parameters and indicators and determining the latter’s efficiency. The results showed that for a processing capacity of 30,000 kg/h of African palm bunches, 5070 kg/h of CPO were obtained, reaching a production yield of 69.63%, a wastewater production ratio (WPR) of 58.64 %, a fractional water consumption (FWC) of 2.38 m³/t of CPO, a total cost of freshwater (TCF) of 347.33 USD/day, a total cost of energy (TCE) of 13,235.95 USD/day, an energy-specific intensity (ESI) of 4905.66 MJ/t of CPO, a natural gas consumption index (NGCI) of 103,421.65 m³/t of CPO, an electric energy consumption index (EECI) of 165.67 kWh/t of CPO, and a net energy ratio (NER) and energy utilization index (ECI) of 165.67 kWh/t of CPO. The EUI is higher than 1. Additionally, five indicators showed an efficiency higher than 80%, highlighting the energy indicators (TCE, NGCI, and EECI), which reached the highest efficiency (95.45%) due to the predominant use of natural gas, and the water indicators (FWC and TCF), which reached 92.90% and 88.12%, respectively. Finally, improvements are required in the WPR (41.36%) and the ESI (78.13%), which merit optimization techniques using mass and energy integration, respectively. Full article

The objective of the study is to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) index returns in bull and bear market conditions. Accordingly, this study uses monthly data to construct a new market-wide investor sentiment index and test its effects on the JSE aggregated and disaggregated index returns in alternating market conditions for the period March 2007 to January 2024. The findings of the Markov regime-switching model reveal that when the JSE is in a bull market condition, the JSE oil and gas sector returns and the JSE telecommunication sector returns are affected positively by investor sentiment. Similarly, in a bearish state, the JSE health sector returns and JSE telecommunication sector returns are negatively affected by investor sentiment. Collectively, the findings suggest that the effects of investor sentiment on JSE index returns are regime-specific and time-varying, such that they are dependent on the market conditions (bull or bear) and the type of JSE index (aggregated or disaggregated index). Accordingly, investors must consider this information to ensure resilient investment decisions and risk management strategies in sentiment-induced markets and alternating market conditions. Full article

Currently, the main types of roses circulating in China include Jinbian Rose, Kushui Rose and Pingyin Rose. Each type of rose has slight differences in usage and efficacy. There are many varieties of roses, and the quality of rose essential oils varies greatly. Almost no research has systematically studied the essential oils of various roses. In this experiment, three types of roses (Jinbian Rose, Kushui Rose, and Pingyin Rose) were selected as research subjects based on their efficacy and variety in the market. Essential oils were extracted from the three types of roses using hydrodistillation. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used to qualitatively analyze the volatile substances in the essential oils of different varieties of roses. The three types of rose essential oils were identified and differentiated using chemometric methods (including HCA, PCA, PLS-DA, and OPLS-DA). On the one hand, based on the GC-MS analysis results, 40, 48, and 40 volatile components were detected in Jinbian Rose, Kushui Rose, and Pingyin Rose, respectively. The chemical compositions were primarily dominated by macromolecular compounds such as long-chain alkanes, organic acids, and esters. On the other hand, eight markers with significant identification values were identified to distinguish among the three types of roses. In conclusion, based on GC-MS analysis and chemometric methods, this experiment distinguishes and identifies three types of roses from the perspective of essential oil components for developing an effective strategy for the identification of rose varieties. Full article

Sensory analysis is a fundamental tool in evaluating extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) quality, playing an essential role in both consumer markets and international competitions that recognize and promote high-quality olive oils. Among the key attributes assessed, the fruitiness descriptor—subcategorized as green or ripe—is particularly significant, especially considering that higher green fruitiness is often associated with greater prestige. However, a clear methodological approach to distinguish between green fruitiness and ripe fruitiness perceptions, particularly in their overlapping zone, is still lacking. This study aims to establish precise criteria for defining these boundaries by analyzing monovarietal EVOOs produced from nine olive varieties at three maturity stages over two consecutive harvest seasons (2021/2022 and 2022/2023). Sensory assessments were conducted by the Official Tasting Panel of Virgin Olive Oils of Catalunya, ensuring representativeness across the different fruitiness perceptions. Volatile compounds of the samples were extracted using headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS/SPME) and separated and identified via gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Multivariate analysis revealed three distinct volatile profiles corresponding to different sensory perceptions. These findings suggest that incorporating an intermediate sensory attribute between green fruitiness and ripe fruitiness could improve classification accuracy in both competitions and premium markets, enhancing the appreciation and valuation of high-quality EVOOs. Full article

Offshore oil and gas activities are crucial in the petroleum industry. Offshore oil and gas installations require different cargo to operate. A heterogeneous fleet of platform supply vessels (PSVs) transports cargo supply to installations. The PSV fleet management in Brazil faces challenges such as the non-availability of the spot market, variations and uncertainties in delivery order demands and due dates, inspection and corrective vessel maintenance, and multiple time windows for service at installations. PSV fleet management aims to satisfy cargo delivery requests in time and quantity, avoid delays, and achieve a balance among delivery service levels, vessel costs, and greenhouse gas emissions. We develop several PSV fleet management policies with delivery service level or fuel consumption goals, composed of new fleet management procedures such as vessel control, vessel assignment to voyages including cargo selection, vessel routing, speed selection, and dynamic re-routing. The results of tests on a real Brazilian case demonstrate that the developed policies with the incorporated fleet management procedures improve fleet performance indicators. The comparative analysis of policies shows their different impacts on indicators, allowing managers to select the best fleet management policy by considering the trade-offs between delivery service level, costs, and emissions, depending on their goals. Full article

This study analyses the impact of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on the volatility of commodity futures returns from 4 January 2010 to 30 June 2023, using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. It expands the research scope to include precious metals, agricultural products, energy, and industrial metals. The study differentiates between the impacts of geopolitical threat events and actions using GPRACT and GPRTHREAT indicators. Findings reveal that negative geopolitical shocks increase commodity returns’ volatility more than positive shocks. Specifically, gold, silver, and natural gas are negatively affected, while wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, zinc, nickel, lead, WTI oil, and Brent oil experience positive effects. Platinum, cocoa, coffee, and copper show no significant impact. These insights highlight the importance of geopolitical risks on commodity market volatility and returns, aiding in risk management and portfolio diversification. Policymakers, financial market stakeholders, and investors can leverage these findings to better understand the GPR’s relationship with commodity markets and develop effective strategies. Full article

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a recognized solution for lowering greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing oil dependency, especially in Indonesia. Existing studies have explored the economic impact, challenges, and opportunities of EV adoption separately, lacking a holistic analysis. This study addresses this gap by providing a comprehensive assessment of the economic implications, challenges, and opportunities of EV adoption in Indonesia through a systematic literature review of 65 peer-reviewed articles, industry reports, and reputable publications from 2016 to 2024. The document analysis involved keyword-based literature selection, content analysis of economic metrics, and synthesis into key thematic areas. The findings reveal that EV sales in Indonesia have been rising annually, influenced by cost, driving range, environmental impact, technological features, charging infrastructure, battery, and government policies and incentives. EV adoption has positively impacted Indonesia’s GDP, attracted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), created jobs, and reduced fuel consumption and imports. However, several challenges persist, including high EV costs, inadequate charging infrastructure, societal readiness, battery replacement costs and waste management, and limited model variety. Despite these challenges, opportunities exist in the form of market growth, FDI from nickel resources, energy security, job creation, and industrial expansion. Recommendations for creating a conducive EV ecosystem are provided for relevant stakeholders. Full article

The global energy sector has been profoundly reshaped by the COVID-19 pandemic, triggering diverse reactions in energy demand patterns, accelerating the transition toward renewable energy sources, and amplifying concerns over global energy security and the digital safety of energy infrastructure. Five years after the pandemic’s onset, this study provides a taxonomy-based lesson-learned analysis, offering a comprehensive examination of the pandemic’s enduring effects on energy systems. It employs a detailed analytical framework to map short-, medium-, and long-term transformations across various energy-related sectors. Specifically, the study investigates significant shifts in the global energy landscape, including the electric and conventional vehicle markets, the upstream energy industry (oil, coal, and natural gas), conventional and renewable energy generation, aerial transportation, and the broader implications for global and continental energy security. Additionally, it highlights the growing importance of cybersecurity in the context of digital evolution and remote operations, which became critical during the pandemic. The study is structured to dissect the initial shock to energy supply and demand, the environmental consequences of reduced fossil fuel consumption, and the subsequent pivot toward sustainable recovery pathways. It also evaluates the strategic actions and policy measures implemented globally, providing a comparative analysis of recovery efforts and the evolving patterns of energy consumption. In the face of a global reduction in energy demand, the analysis reveals both spatial and temporal disparities, underscoring the complexity of the pandemic’s impact on the energy sector. Drawing on the lessons of COVID-19, this work emphasizes the need for flexible, forward-thinking strategies and deeper international collaboration to build energy systems that are both resilient and sustainable in the face of uncertainties. Full article