Search Results (35)

Heavy precipitation in Northeast China is frequently modulated by the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV), although the microphysical processes within squall lines under such conditions remain insufficiently understood. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an NCCV-influenced squall line in Liaoning Province, utilizing coordinated S-band polarimetric radar and surface disdrometer observations. The raindrop size distribution (DSD) characteristics and three-dimensional microphysical structure are systematically examined for both convective and stratiform regimes. A comparative analysis of DSD and warm-rain microphysical mechanisms is also conducted with a Mei-yu event. Results show that convective rain in the NCCV squall line exhibits a continental-type DSD, characterized by fewer but larger raindrops compared to other heavy rainfalls in China. In contrast, the Mei-yu frontal convection under NCCV influence exhibits a transitional DSD pattern between the maritime and continental types, with raindrops smaller and denser than those in the NCCV squall line. Vertical structure of the mature squall line shows prominent differential reflectivity (Z_DR) and specific differential phase (K_DP) columns above the melting level within the convective region, indicating vigorous riming growth of graupel and hail driven by strong updrafts. Meanwhile, the stratiform region is characterized by ice crystals and aggregates, formed primarily through deposition and aggregation processes. The subsequent melting of ice-phase particles followed by collision–coalescence and evaporation-driven size sorting shapes the large but sparse raindrops in the NCCV squall line. Comparison with Mei-yu convection demonstrates that surface DSD is shaped by environmental conditions and vertical microphysics. The drier, more unstable environment in the NCCV squall line favors deep convection with active ice-phase processes, while the relatively moist and stable environment of the Mei-yu convection supports shallower convection dominated by warm-rain processes. Future multi-case studies with integrated observations are needed to quantify how environmental and aerosol conditions modulate these heavy precipitation processes. Full article

The Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV) is a crucial local synoptic system influencing the weather and climate of Northeast China. However, the application of artificial intelligence techniques in NCCV prediction remains limited. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this study constructs a 23-year multi-modal spatiotemporal sequence dataset of NCCV via an objective identification method, focusing on NCCV trajectory prediction. An improved generative adversarial network model is proposed, which adopts a multi-encoder architecture to extract spatiotemporal features of multi-modal NCCV data and introduces a multi-generator structure to address the insufficient prediction capability of a single generator. A selector module is added to enable the model to adaptively select the optimal generation path. Ablation experiments show that compared with single-trajectory data input, multi-modal data input in our model reduces the average prediction error by 67.96 km, representing a 34.0% improvement, and the 24-h prediction error improvement reaches 39.7%. Ultimately, the proposed model achieves superior prediction accuracy and stability in the NCCV trajectory prediction tasks at 6 h, 12 h, 18 h, and 24 h, with prediction distance errors reduced by 21.4%, 29.2%, 34.0%, and 37.0% compared to LSTM. Full article

Clarifying migration pathways and the source area–destination relationships of the domestic and foreign beet webworm Loxostege sticticalis (Linnaeus) populations, as well as understanding the meteorological mechanisms shaping these processes, is pivotal for remote, accurate, and location-specific pest early warning and forecasting. Based on light trap data from northern China and field survey data from Mongolia in 2022, we simulated the migration trajectories, source regions, and primary landing areas of L. sticticalis by using the HYSPLIT model and analyzed the synoptic systems, processes and conditions during its migration. The results indicate the frequent exchange of L. sticticalis populations between China and Mongolia in 2022. The L. sticticalis migrants initiating their flights from Mongolia primarily undertook a southeastward migration pathway, supplemented by eastward ‘cyclonic’ and southwestward paths. The main landing areas were located in North China and Northeast China, with migration events potentially extending to the Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Xinjiang provinces. Populations originating from North China exhibited a capacity for migrating into Northeast China and Mongolia through 1–5 consecutive nights of flight. During this period, the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV) and the Mongolian Cyclone alternately regulated the synoptic circulation pattern governing the migration of L. sticticalis. The spatiotemporal distributions and intensities of these systems were key determinants of the transboundary migration routes and distances of L. sticticalis. The NCCV dominated, and the precipitation and downdrafts it induced were crucial for the massive landing of L. sticticalis in northern China. Full article

Using multi-source precipitation datasets including NASA GPM (IMERG), GPCP, ECMWF ERA5, and station precipitation data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), along with ERA5 reanalysis fields for atmospheric circulation analysis, this study investigates the extreme precipitation events during the “Dragon-Boat Precipitation” period from 20 May to 21 June over South China in 2022 using the synoptic diagnostic method. The results indicate that the total precipitation during this period significantly exceeded the climatological average, with multiple large-scale extreme rainfall events characterized by high intensity, extensive coverage, and prolonged duration. The spatial distribution of precipitation exhibited a north-more-south-less pattern, with the maximum rainfall center located in the Nanling Mountains, particularly in the Shaoguan–Qingyuan–Heyuan region of Guangdong Province, where peak precipitation exceeded 1100 mm, and the mean precipitation was approximately 1.7 times the climatology from the GPM data. The average daily precipitation throughout the period was 17.5 mm/day, which was 6 mm/day higher than the climatological mean, while the heaviest rainfall on 13 June reached 39 mm/day above the average, exceeding two standard deviations. The extreme precipitation during the “Dragon-Boat Precipitation” period in 2022 was associated with an anomalous deep East Asian trough, an intensified South Asian High, a stronger-than-usual Western Pacific Subtropical High, an enhanced South Asian monsoon and South China Sea monsoon, and the dominance of a strong Southwesterly Low-Level Jet (SLLJ) over South China. Two major moisture transport pathways were established: one from the Bay of Bengal to South China and another from the South China Sea, with the latter contributing a little higher amount of water vapor transport than the former. The widespread extreme precipitation on 13 June 2022 was triggered by the anomalous atmospheric circulation conditions. In the upper levels, South China was located at the northwestern periphery of the slightly stronger-than-normal Western Pacific Subtropical High, intersecting with the base of a deep trough associated with an anomalous intense Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV). At lower levels, the region was positioned along a shear line formed by anomalous southwesterly and northerly winds, where exceptionally strong southwesterly moisture transport, significant moisture convergence, and intense vertical updraft led to the widespread extreme rainfall event on that day. Full article

Understanding the characteristics of the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV) during the warm season (May to September) is essential for enhancing the forecast skills in Northeast China. This study employed ERA5 reanalysis data over 2012–2022 and the optimized K-means clustering algorithm to classify NCCV tracks into five types: (A) eastward-moving dissipative, (B) eastward-moving retrogressive, (C) short-range eastward-moving offshore, (D) long-range eastward-moving offshore, and (E) long-range southeastward-moving offshore. The results demonstrated that variations in circulation configurations governed the tracks of the NCCVs, bringing about the diversity in the center intensity, lifespan, movement speed, and rainstorm probability results. Specifically, the blocking high (BH) over the Sea of Okhotsk served as the primary control system, favoring slow-moving, long-lived NCCVs (type A and type B), which were associated with a higher probability of cold vortex (CV) rainstorms. However, fast-moving, the short-lived NCCVs (type C) had a weaker impact on precipitation. A spatiotemporal analysis further revealed obvious inter-monthly variation in NCCV tracks. From May to August, under the influence of the northward-moving subtropical high and the strengthening of the BH, the occurrence of types A and B increased, while the occurrence of other types decreased. This synoptic shift promoted moisture transport into Northeast China, increasing the frequency of CV rainstorms in July and August. Full article

A severe cold air outbreak hit the US and parts of Canada in January 2019, leaving behind many casualties where at least 21 people died as a consequence. According to Insurance Business America, the event cost the US about 1 billion dollars. In the Midwest, surface temperatures dipped to the lowest on record in decades, reaching −32 °C in Chicago, Illinois, and down to −48 °C wind chill temperature in Cotton and Dakota, Minnesota, giving rise to broad media attention. A zonal wavenumber 1–3 planetary wave forcing caused a sudden stratospheric warming, with a displacement followed by a split of the polar vortex at the beginning of 2019. The common downward progression of the stratospheric anomalies stalled at the tropopause and, thus, they did not reach tropospheric levels. Instead, the stratospheric trough, developing in a barotropic fashion around 70° W, turned the usually baroclinic structure of the Aleutian high quasi-barotropic. In response, upward propagating waves over the North Pacific were reflected at its lower stratospheric, eastward tilting edge toward North America. Channeled by a dipole structure of positive and negative eddy geopotential height anomalies, the waves converged at the center of the latter and thereby strengthened the circulation anomalies responsible for the severely cold surface temperatures in most of the Midwest and Northeast US. Full article

In the past 42 years from 1980 to 2021, 103 regional strong cooling events (RSCEs) occurred in winter in Northeast China, and the frequency has increased significantly in the past 10 years, averaging 2.45 per year. The longest (shortest) duration is 10 (2) days. The minimum temperature series in 60 events exists in 10–20 d of significant low-frequency (LF) periods. The key LF circulation systems affecting RSCEs include the Lake Balkhash–Baikal ridge, the East Asian trough (EAT), the robust Siberian high (SH) and the weaker (stronger) East Asian temperate (subtropical) jet, with the related anomaly centers moving from northwest to southeast and developing into a nearly north–south orientation. The LF wave energy of the northern branch from the Atlantic Ocean disperses to Northeast China, which excites the downstream disturbance wave train. The corresponding LF positive vorticity enhances and moves eastward, leading to the formation of deep EAT. The enhanced subsidence motion behind the EAT leads to SH strengthening. The cold advection related to the northeast cold vortex is the main thermal factor causing the local temperature to decrease. The Scandinavian Peninsula is the primary cold air source, and the Laptev Sea is the secondary one, with cold air from the former along northwest path via the West Siberian Plain and Lake Baikal, and from the latter along the northern path via the Central Siberian Plateau, both converging towards Northeast China. Full article

This study utilized high-resolution numerical simulation data from the WRF model to conduct a thermodynamic diagnosis of the process by which Typhoon “Maysak” transformed and merged with the Northeast Cold Vortex. The results indicated that the continuous intrusion of cold vortex air and the relative cold advection formed by the typhoon’s movement led to the demise of the typhoon’s warm core structure. The low-level low-pressure convergence and upper-level high-pressure divergence structure disappeared. After the transformation and merging with the Northeast Cold Vortex, the cyclone became cold throughout the entire layer, with a cold center appearing at low levels. During the process of the typhoon’s transformation and merging with the Northeast Cold Vortex, cold air accumulated near the low levels of the cyclone, causing the pseudo-adiabatic potential temperature lines to tilt and resulting in the slanted development of vertical vorticity in the mid-levels of the cyclone. After the typhoon transformed and merged with the Northeast Cold Vortex, the positive vertical vorticity advection at the bottom of the upper-level cold vortex trough promoted the cyclone’s development directly from the mid-levels to the upper levels, while the jet stream at the bottom of the cold vortex trough facilitated the maintenance of the positive vertical vorticity advection. Concurrently, the thermodynamic shear vorticity parameter could describe the typical vertical structure characteristics of the dynamic and thermodynamic fields above the rain area during the typhoon transformation process. In terms of temporal evolution trends, there was a certain correspondence with the development and movement of the ground rain area, and the perturbation thermodynamic divergence parameter had a good indicative effect on the area of heavy rainfall. Full article

Using multi-source observation data including automatic stations, radar, satellite, new detection equipment, and the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-5) data, along with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) platform, an analysis was conducted on a rainstorm process that occurred in Nanjing on 15 June 2020, with the aim of providing reference for future urban flood control planning and heavy rainfall forecasting and early warning. The results showed that this rainstorm process was generated under the background of an eastward-moving northeast cold vortex and a southward retreat of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. Intense precipitation occurred near the region of large top brightness temperature (TBB) gradient values or the center of low TBB values on the northern side of the convective cloud cluster. During the heavy precipitation period, the differential propagation phase shift rate (K_DP), differential reflectivity factor (Z_DR), and zero-lag correlation coefficient (ρ_HV) detected by the S-band dual-polarization radar all increased significantly. The vertical structure of the wind field detected by the wind profile radar provided a good indication of changes in precipitation intensity, showing a strong correspondence between the timing of maximum precipitation and the intrusion of upper-level cold air. The abrupt increase in the integrated liquid water content observed by the microwave radiometer can serve as an important indicator of the onset of stronger precipitation. During the Meiyu season in Nanjing, convective precipitation was mainly composed of small to medium raindrops with diameters less than 3 mm, with falling velocities of raindrops mainly clustering between 2 and 6 m·s⁻¹. The rainstorm process featured four water vapor transport channels: the mid-latitude westerly channel, the Indian Ocean channel, the South China Sea channel, and the Pacific Ocean channel. During heavy rainfall, the Pacific Ocean water vapor channel was the main channel at the middle and lower levels, while the South China Sea water vapor channel was the main channel at the upper level, both accounting for a trajectory proportion of 34.2%. Full article

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) frequently experience extreme precipitation events (EPEs) during June and July, the so-called Meiyu season. This study investigated EPEs in the MLYR during Meiyu seasons over 1961–2022, using rain gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data. EPEs associated with the Northeast China cold vortex featured more undulating westerlies with a distinct wave train pattern from Europe to Northeast Asia. Due to robust Rossby wave energy, the trough deepened from Northeast China towards the MLYR and was confronted with a westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high. Such a configuration enhanced the warm and moist monsoon conveyor belt and convergence of water vapor flux from southwestern China to the MLYR. The warm and moist air favored upward motion. The increased rainfall prevailed from southwestern China to the MLYR. In contrast, ordinary EPEs were characterized by zonal westerlies and weaker Rossby wave propagation. The Meiyu trough was comparatively shallow and confined to the MLYR with less westward expansion of the subtropical high. In response, the warm and moist monsoon conveyor belt was more localized, resulting in weaker EPEs in the MLYR. Full article

Agro-meteorological disasters are a significant cause of crop yield reduction. Northeast China is a major base for commodity grain production and is also highly sensitive to climate change. Early frost is one of the most significant meteorological disasters in Northeast China. The typical weather system serves as the primary meteorological cause of the occurrence of early frost. The Northeast Cold Vortex is a cyclonic system of certain intensity located in Northeast China, which has the potential to induce severe weather conditions such as extreme low temperatures and intense convection. Despite extensive research on the first occurrence of frost in Northeast China, the evolutionary characteristics under the combined influence of climate change and the Northeast Cold Vortex remain unclear. This limitation hinders the development of effective monitoring and early warning systems for early frost, as well as the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation plans for crop production. Therefore, this study aims to objectively document the occurrence of early frost in maize crops in Northeast China from 1961 to 2021 under the influence of the Northeast Cold Vortex. It seeks to unveil the climatic characteristics and evolutionary patterns of early frost events in maize crops within this region, considering the impact of the Northeast Cold Vortex. Additionally, it endeavors to analyze the factors contributing to varying degrees of early frost caused by the Northeast Cold Vortex. The results showed that the occurrence of both early frost and frost influenced by the Northeast Cold Vortex exhibited a declining trend. Furthermore, there was also a decreasing proportion of initial frost attributed to the Northeast Cold Vortex, with a decline rate of 2% per decade, indicating a diminishing dominance of initial frost caused by this weather system. The onset date for the early frost under the influence of the Northeast Cold Vortex progressively advanced from southeast to northwest, occurring 4 days earlier than during the period from 1961 to 1990 between 1991 and 2021. While early frost displayed an increasing spatial distribution from southeast to northwest, it is noteworthy that the majority concentration of the Northeast Cold Vortex was observed in central regions, highlighting its predominant role in causing early frost in Northeast China. Full article

Two severe dust storm (DS) events (15–17 March and 28–29 March) hit northern China in 2021 consecutively. The lower atmospheric vertical dynamic and thermal structures during the two cases were compared using the ground-based sensor data from the microwave radiometer and radar wind profiler, combined with the environmental and meteorological observations data in Jinan, China. It was found that both cases occurred under the background of cold vortexes over northeastern China. The dust was transported through the cold air on the northwest route. During the dust period, 2–3 km was the west or northwest airflow, and below 2 km was the northeast wind. The variation in the dynamic structure determined the duration of the DS. During the DS maintenance phase, the vertical wind shear (VWS) below 3 km measured approximately 10 m∙(s∙km)⁻¹. The increased VWS during the dust intrusion period facilitated the transportation of dust. In contrast, the more significant VWS was not conducive to the maintenance of DS, and the shift to south wind control in the upper middle layer indicated the weakening of DS. In both cases, we observed a cliff-like decrease in relative humidity as a prominent indicator of dust outbreaks, occurring approximately 2–5 h beforehand. The diurnal difference between the vertical temperature and relative humidity during the dust maintenance period was found to be insignificant. Full article

Warm zone rainstorms and frontal rainstorms are two types of rainstorms that often occur in the rainy season in Jiangxi (located in the eastern part of China). The ability to correctly identify the type of rainstorms is important for accurate forecasting of rainstorms. Two heavy rainstorms took place in Jiangxi province. The first heavy rainstorm occurred from 20:00 BJT (Beijing Time) on 6 June to 20:00 BJT on 9 June (referred to as the “6.9” process) and another heavy rainstorm occurred from 20:00 BJT on 21 June to 20:00 BJT on 22 June (referred to as the “6.9” process), 2019. We analyzed the two rainstorms’ processes by using ground-based observation data, NCEP/FNL reanalysis data, ECMWF and CMA-SH9 numerical forecasting products. The results show that: “6.9” process is a warm area rainstorm, and a strong northeast cold vortex exists at 500 hPa geopotential height. The northwesterly flow behind the northeast cold vortex trough is stronger. The position of the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure is more south than that at “6.22” process. The rainstorm is in the precipitation zone of the warm temperature ridge over 925 hPa geopotential height, and with more convective character than “6.22” process. The process of “6.22” is a frontal rainstorm. The convective character of precipitation is weaker. The rainstorm precipitation zones are in a strong temperature front area at 925 hPa geopotential height and there is a tendency for vertical convection to develop into oblique upward convection in the late stage of the rainstorm. The precipitation location and intensity forecast by CMA-SH9 at the “6.9” process is better than that of ECMWF, while ECMWF’s prediction of the precipitation zone and weather condition of the “6.22” process is better. Full article

Fifty years of daily ERA5 reanalysis data are employed to investigate the linkages between the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric polar vortex during the boreal winter. The strong coupling events, anomalies in both the stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortices, can be classified into four configurations, each representing the distinct characteristics of planetary wave vertical propagation and tropospheric circulation anomalies. The findings reveal the following patterns: (1) Strong stratospheric polar vortex and weak tropospheric polar vortex periods are associated with anomalous downward E-P flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere, predominantly induced by planetary waves 1 and 2. Warm anomalies occur along the North Atlantic coasts, while cold anomalies are evident over Eastern Europe and East Asia at the surface. (2) Weak stratospheric polar vortex and strong tropospheric polar vortex periods exhibit anomalous upward E-P flux in high latitudes, with dominant wave 1, and anomalous downward E-P flux in the middle latitudes, dominated by wave 2. Warm anomalies are observed over North America, Western Europe, and the northern side of the Gulf of Oman at the surface. (3) Strong stratospheric polar vortex and strong tropospheric polar vortex periods feature anomalous downward E-P flux in high latitudes, dominated by wave 1, and anomalous upward E-P flux in middle latitudes, with a wave 2 predominance. Warm anomalies prevail over Northeast Asia, Southern Europe, and North America at the surface. (4) Weak stratospheric polar vortex and weak tropospheric polar vortex periods display anomalous upward E-P flux in mid-to-high latitudes, predominantly with wave 1. In contrast to the tropospheric circulation anomalies observed in the third category, this pattern results in the presence of cold anomalies over Northeast Asia, Southern Europe, and North America. Full article

Rainstorms always occur in the southeast and northeast quadrants of the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV), resulting in significant flooding. This study investigated water vapor and trigger mechanisms for rainstorms within these two regions of an NCCV event during 11–14 June 2022 in terms of Lagrangian backward tracking, stratification stability, and upward motion using the ERA5 reanalysis. In the mid-troposphere, a quasi-stationary “ridge-NCCV-ridge” pattern resided over northeastern China, with an “anticyclonic-cyclonic-anticyclonic” airflow in the lower troposphere. As a result, water vapor originated from the Yellow Sea and was transported in an “L” shape toward both two regions. The southeast region was influenced by southwesterly and northwesterly airflows, resulting in the convergence of moist air from the Yangtze River and Lake Baikal and significant vertical shear of positive vorticity advection. This dynamic created deep and pronounced upward currents in the southeast of the NCCV, leading to the development of intensive and extensive rainstorms in situ. In contrast, the northeast region of the NCCV was dominated by southerly airflow. The moist air converged against the lee side of the Great Khingan Mountains and generated shallow, unstable stratification. The upward motion in this area was relatively weaker and thus induced regional rainstorms. Full article