Search Results (5,980)

With rapid socio-economic development, excessive anthropogenic consumption and the exploitation of natural resources have impaired the self-healing, supply, and carrying capacities of ecosystems. The assessment and prediction of ecosystem service values (ESVs) are crucial for the coordinated development of ecology and economy. This research examines the Xiangjiang River Basin and combines land use data from 1995 to 2020, Landsat images, meteorological data, and socio-economic data. These data are incorporated into the PLUS model to simulate land use patterns in 2035 under the following five scenarios: natural development, economic development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and coordinated development. Additionally, this research analyzes the dynamics of land use and changes in ESVs in the Xiangjiang River Basin. The results show that between 1995 and 2020 in the Xiangjiang River Basin, urbanization accelerated, human activities intensified, and the construction land area expanded significantly, while the areas of forest, farmland, and grassland decreased continuously. Based on multi-scenario simulations, the ESV showed the largest and smallest declines under economic development and ecological protection scenarios, respectively. This results from the economic development scenario inducing a rapid expansion in construction land. In contrast, construction land expansion was restricted under the ecological protection scenario, because the ecological functions of forests and water bodies were prioritized. This research proposes land use strategies to coordinate ecological protection and economic development to provide a basis for sustainable development in the Xiangjiang River Basin and constructing a national ecological security barrier, as well as offer Chinese experience and local cases for global ecological environment governance. Full article

The tropospheric storm fronts were found to cause disruptions in the propagations of VHF (Very High Frequency) radio signals, elevating their signal levels. This is especially important for VHF radio navigation systems, such as VOR (VHF Omnidirectional Range), used for naval, airborne and terrestrial transportation, and as the assisting navigation aids for the smaller vehicles forming the Internet of Drones. This article describes this disruptive phenomenon analytically and shows an experimental verification of the developed formula, presenting the increase in relative VHF signal range by ~1.8 times with decreasing tropospheric refraction. Contrary to popular VHF propagation models, largely averaged and statistics-based, the shown formula can be used simultaneously with meteorological predictions, contributing significantly to the mitigation of radio navigation issues related to stormy weather in the operative range of the Internet of Drones. Full article

The rising frequency of heatwaves, combined with the urban heat island effect, increases the population’s exposure to high temperatures, significantly impacting the health of vulnerable groups and the overall well-being of residents. While mesoscale meteorological models can reliably forecast temperatures across urban neighbourhoods, dense networks of in situ measurements offer more precise data at the street scale. In this work, the Random Forest technique was used to predict street-scale temperatures in the downtown area of Thessaloniki, Greece, during a prolonged heatwave in July 2021. The model was trained using data from a low-cost sensor network, meteorological fields calculated by the mesoscale model MEMO, and micro-environmental spatial features. The results show that, although the MEMO temperature predictions achieve high accuracy during nighttime compared to measurements, they exhibit inconsistent trends across sensor locations during daytime, indicating that the model does not fully account for microclimatic phenomena. Additionally, by using only the observed temperature as the target of the Random Forest model, higher accuracy is achieved, but spatial features are not represented in the predictions. In contrast, the most reliable approach to incorporating spatial characteristics is to use the difference between observed and mesoscale temperatures as the target variable. Full article

Under the scenario of global climate warming, meteorological risks affecting sunflower cultivation in Xinjiang’s 10th Division were investigated by developing a meteorological-growth coupling model. Field experiments were conducted at three representative stations (A1–A3) during 2023–2024 to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on yield and quality traits among sunflower cultivars with varying maturation periods. The main findings were: (1) Early-maturing cultivar B1 (RH3146) exhibited superior adaptation at low-temperature station A1, achieving 12% higher plant height and an 18% yield increase compared to regional averages. (2) At thermally variable station A2 (daily average temperature fluctuation ± 8 °C, precipitation CV = 25%), the late-maturing cultivar B3 showed enhanced stress resilience, achieving 35.6% grain crude fat content (15% greater than mid-maturing B2) along with 8–10% increases in seed setting rate and 100-grain weight. These improvements were potentially due to optimized photoassimilated allocation and activation of stress-responsive genes. (3) At station A3, characterized by high thermal-humidity variability (CV > 15%) during grain filling, B3 experienced a 15-day delay in maturation and a 3% reduction in ripeness. Two principal mitigation strategies are recommended: preferential selection of early-to-mid maturing cultivars in regions with thermal-humidity CV > 10%, improving yield stability by 23%, and optimization of sowing schedules based on accumulated temperature-precipitation modeling, reducing meteorological losses by 15%. These evidence-based recommendations provide critical insights for climate-resilient cultivar selection and precision agricultural management in meteorologically vulnerable agroecosystems. Full article

A reliable precipitation dataset with high spatial resolution is essential for climate research in the Tarim Basin. This study evaluated the performances of four models, namely a random forest (RF), a long short-term memory network (LSTM), a support vector machine (SVM), and a feedforward neural network (FNN). FNN, which was found to be superior to the other models, was used to integrate eight precipitation datasets spanning from 1990 to 2022 across the Tarim Basin, resulting in a new monthly high-resolution (0.1°) precipitation dataset named MoHiPr-TB. This dataset was subsequently bias-corrected by the China Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 (CLDAS2.0). Validation results indicate that the corrected MoHiPr-TB not only accurately reflects the spatial distribution of precipitation but also effectively simulates its intensity and interannual and seasonal variations. Moreover, MoHiPr-TB is capable of detecting the precipitation–elevation relationship in the Pamir Plateau, where precipitation initially increases and then decreases with elevation, as well as the synchronous variation of precipitation and elevation in the Tianshan region. Collectively, this study delivers a high-accuracy precipitation dataset for the Tarim Basin, which is anticipated to have extensive applications in meteorological, hydrological, and ecological research. Full article

This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of oil released during the Agia Zoni II shipwreck in the Saronic Gulf in 2017, employing the OpenOil module of the OpenDrift framework. The simulation integrates oceanographic and meteorological data to model the transport, weathering, and fate of spilled oil over a six-day period. Oil behavior is examined across key transformation processes, including dispersion, emulsification, evaporation, and biodegradation, using particle-based modeling and a comprehensive set of environmental inputs. The modeled results are validated against in situ observations and visual inspection data, focusing on four critical dates. The study demonstrates OpenOil’s potential for accurately simulating oil dispersion dynamics in semi-enclosed marine environments and highlights the significance of environmental forcing, vertical mixing, and shoreline interactions in determining oil fate. It concludes with recommendations for improving real-time response strategies in similar spill scenarios. Full article

With the wide application of airdrop technology in rescue activities in civil and aerospace fields, the importance of accurate airdrop is increasing. This work comprehensively analyzes the interactive mechanisms among multiple models affecting airdrops, including wind field distribution, drag force effect, and the parachute opening process. By integrating key parameters across various dimensions of these models, a multidimensional parameter dynamic evolution (MPDE) target prediction method for aerial delivery parachutes in radar-detected wind fields is proposed, and the Runge–Kutta method is applied to dynamically solve for the final landing point of the target. In order to verify the performance of the method, this work carries out field airdrop experiments based on the radar-measured meteorological data. To evaluate the impact of model input errors on prediction methods, this work analyzes the influence mechanism of the wind field detection error on the airdrop prediction method via the Relative Gain Array (RGA) and verifies the analytical results using the numerical simulation method. The experimental results indicate that the optimized MPDE method exhibits higher accuracy than the widely used linear airdrop target prediction method, with the accuracy improved by 52.03%. Additionally, under wind field detection errors, the linear prediction method demonstrates stronger robustness. The airdrop error shows a trigonometric relationship with the angle between the synthetic wind direction and the heading, and the phase of the function will shift according to the difference in errors. The sensitivity of the MPDE method to wind field errors is positively correlated with the size of its object parachute area. Full article

A numerical simulation experiment is conducted to study the first-ever waterspout observed in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, in 2024, namely, a mesoscale meteorological model with a spatial resolution of 200 m coupled with a computational fluid dynamics model with a spatial resolution of 4 m. It is found that the simulation could reproduce the observed wind field near the surface reasonably well, as well as the location of the waterspout and showers, as shown in the weather image. By conducting simulations with and without buildings, it is found that the inclusion of buildings is essential for the successful reproduction of the flow fields near the surface and up to several hundred metres high. This may suggest that urbanization plays a role in the occurrence of this waterspout. The resultant horizontal vorticity is then stretched by strong vertical motion at around 850 hPa, resulting in the waterspout, though no closed circulation could be simulated at the location of the waterspout. Moreover, the cyclonic feature for the flow field near the surface has a time lag of about 30 min compared with the actual waterspout occurrence. Nonetheless, the simulation is considered to be generally satisfactory and provides useful insight into the occurrence of the waterspout. Full article

The worldwide air pollution situation reveals significant environmental challenges. In addition to being a major contributor to the deterioration of air quality, particulate matter (PM) is also an important factor affecting the performance of solar energy systems given its ability to decrease light transmission to solar panels. As part of our research, the present investigation involves monitoring concentrations of PM using a high-performance optical instrument, the in situ calibration protocol of which is described in detail. For the city of Rabat, observations revealed significant variations in concentrations between day and night, with peaks observed around 8 p.m. correlating with high relative humidity and low wind speeds, and the highest levels recorded in February with a monthly average value reaching 75 µm/m³. In addition, an experimental protocol was set up for an analysis of the elemental composition of particles in the same city using SEM/EDS, providing a better understanding of their morphology. To assess the impact of meteorological variables on PM concentrations in two distinct climatic environments, a database from the city of Marrakech for the year 2024 was utilized. Overall, the distribution of PM values during this period did not fluctuate significantly, with a monthly average value not exceeding 45 µm/m³. The random forest method identified the most influential variables on these concentrations, highlighting the strong influence of the type of environment. The findings provide crucial information for the modeling of solar installations’ soiling and for improving understanding of local air quality. Full article

Objective: Our objective was to investigate the short-term effects of ambient ozone (O₃) meteorological factors and their interactions on hospitalizations for cerebral infarction in Zhengzhou, China. Methods: Daily data on air pollutants, meteorological factors, and hospitalization of cerebral infarction patients were collected from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2023 in Zhengzhou, China. A generalized additive model was constructed to evaluate the association between ambient O₃ levels and hospitalization for cerebral infarction. A distributed lag non-linear model was applied to capture lagged and non-linear exposure effects. We further examined the modifying roles of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure, and conducted stratified analyses by sex, age, and season. Results: O₃ exposure was significantly associated with increased cerebral infarction risk, particularly during the warm season. A bimodal temperature-lag pattern was observed, as follows: moderate temperatures (10–20 °C) were associated with immediate effects, while cold (<10 °C) and hot (>30 °C) temperatures were linked to delayed risks. The association of O₃ and hospitalizations for cerebral infarction appeared stronger under high humidity, low wind speed, and low atmospheric pressure. Conclusions: Short-term O₃ exposure and adverse meteorological conditions are jointly associated with an elevated risk of cerebral infarction. Integrated air quality and weather-based warning systems are essential for targeted stroke prevention. Full article

The spatiotemporal changes and driving mechanisms of rain-on-snow (ROS) events and their intensities are crucial for responding to disasters triggered by such events. However, there is currently a lack of detailed assessment of the seasonal variations and driving mechanisms of ROS events and their intensities in China. Therefore, this study utilized daily meteorological data and daily snow depth data from 513 stations in China during 1978–2020 to investigate spatiotemporal variations of ROS events and their intensities. Also, based on the detrend and partial correlation analysis model, the driving factors of ROS events and their intensity were explored. The results showed that ROS events primarily occurred in northern Xinjiang, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, Northeast China, and central and eastern China. ROS events frequently occurred in the middle and lower Yangtze River Plain in winter but were easily overlooked. The number and intensity of ROS events increased significantly (p < 0.05) in the Changbai Mountains in spring and the Altay Mountains and the southeast part of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in winter, leading to heightened ROS flood risks. However, the number and intensity of ROS events decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in the middle and lower Yangtze River Plain in winter. The driving mechanisms of the changes for ROS events and their intensities were different. Changes in the number of ROS events and their intensities in snow-rich regions were driven by rainfall days and quantity of rainfall, respectively. In regions with more rainfall, these changes were driven by snow cover days and snow water equivalent, respectively. Air temperature had no direct impact on ROS events and their intensities. These findings provide reliable evidence for responding to disasters and changes triggered by ROS events. Full article

The continuous development of both numerical weather model outputs and remote sensing-derived products has enabled a wide range of applications across various fields, such as agricultural water management, where the need for robust gridded weather data and recurring Earth Observations (EO) is fundamental for estimating crop water requirements (CWR) and yield. This study used the latest reanalysis dataset, AgERA5, combined with the up-to-date CM SAF SARAH-3 Satellite-Based Radiation Data as meteorological inputs of the SAFY dynamic crop growth model and a one-step evapotranspiration formula for CWR and yield estimates at the farm scale of tomato crops. The Sentinel-2 (S2) estimates of Leaf Area Index (LAI) were used to force the SAFY model as soon as they became available during the growing stage, according to the satellite passages over the area of interest. The SAFY model was calibrated with ground-based weather observations and S2 LAI data on tomato crops that were collected in several farms in Campania Region (Southern Italy) during the irrigation season, which spans from April to August. To validate the method, the model estimates were compared with field observations of irrigation volumes and harvested yield from a monitored farm in the same region for the year 2021. Results demonstrated that integrating AgERA5 and CM SAF weather datasets with S2 imagery for assimilation into the SAFY model enables accurate estimates of both CWR and yield. Full article

Agriculture accounts for 29% of the Gross Domestic Product of the Nusa Tenggara Islands (NTIs). However, recurring agricultural droughts pose a major threat to the sustainability of agriculture in this region. The interplay between precipitation, solar radiation, and surface temperature as meteorological factors plays a key role in affecting vegetation (Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index) and agricultural drought (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index) in the NTIs. Based on the analyses of interplay with temporal lag, this study investigates the effect of each factor on agricultural drought and attempts to provide early warnings regarding drought in the NTIs. We collected surface information data from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Meanwhile, rainfall was estimated from Himawari-8 based on the INSAT Multi-Spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA). The results showed reliable performance for 8-day and monthly scales against gauges. The drought analysis results reveal that the NTIs suffer from mild-to-moderate droughts, where cropland is the most vulnerable, causing shifts in the rice cropping season. The driving factors could also explain >60% of the vegetation and surface-dryness conditions. Furthermore, our monthly and 8-day TVDI estimation models could capture spatial drought patterns consistent with MODIS, with coefficient of determination (R²) values of more than 0.64. The low error rates and the ability to capture the spatial distribution of droughts, especially in open-land vegetation, highlight the potential of these models to provide an estimation of agricultural drought. Full article

Accurately identifying the sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution is crucial for pollution control and public health protection. Taking the PM_2.5 pollution event that occurred in Suzhou in June 2023 as a typical case, this study analyzed the characteristics and components of PM_2.5, and quantified the contributions of meteorological conditions, regional transport, and local emissions to the summertime PM_2.5 surge in a typical Yangtze River Delta (YRD) city. Chemical composition analysis highlighted a sharp increase in nitrate ions (NO₃⁻, contributing up to 49% during peak pollution), with calcium ion (Ca²⁺) and sulfate ion (SO₄²⁻) concentrations rising to 2 times and 7.5 times those of clean periods, respectively. Results from the random forest model demonstrated that emission sources (74%) dominated this pollution episode, significantly surpassing the meteorological contribution (26%). The Weather Research and Forecasting model combined with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (WRF–CMAQ) further revealed that local emissions contributed the most to PM_2.5 concentrations in Suzhou (46.3%), while external transport primarily originated from upwind cities such as Shanghai and Jiaxing. The findings indicate synergistic effects from dust sources, industrial emissions, and mobile sources. Validation using electricity consumption and key enterprise emission data confirmed that intensive local industrial activities exacerbated PM_2.5 accumulation. Recommendations include strengthening regulations on local industrial and mobile source emissions, and enhancing regional joint prevention and control mechanisms to mitigate cross-boundary transport impacts. Full article

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable in agricultural ecosystems and is crucial for drought prevention and control management. However, SM is influenced by underlying surface and meteorological conditions, and it changes rapidly in time and space. To capture the changes in SM and improve the accuracy of short-term and medium-to-long-term predictions on a daily scale, an LSTMseq2seq model driven by both observational data and mechanism models was constructed. This framework combines historical meteorological elements and SM, as well as the SM change characteristics output by the VIC model, to predict SM over a 90-day period. The model was validated using SMAP SM. The proposed model can accurately predict the spatiotemporal variations in SM in Jiangxi Province. Compared with classical machine learning (ML) models, traditional LSTM models, and advanced transformer models, the LSTMseq2seq model achieved R² values of 0.949, 0.9322, 0.8839, 0.8042, and 0.7451 for the prediction of surface SM over 3 days, 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) ranged from 0.0118 m³/m³ to 0.0285 m³/m³. This study also analyzed the contributions of meteorological features and simulated future SM state changes to SM prediction from two perspectives: time importance and feature importance. The results indicated that meteorological and SM changes within a certain time range prior to the prediction have an impact on SM prediction. The dual-driven LSTMseq2seq model has unique advantages in predicting SM and is conducive to the integration of physical mechanism models with data-driven models for handling input features of different lengths, providing support for daily-scale SM time series prediction and drought dynamics prediction. Full article