Search Results (484)

The coastal sandy land in northeast Hainan Province is typical for this land type, also exhibiting strong sand activity. This study is based on wind speed, wind direction, and sediment transport data obtained at a field meteorological station using an omnidirectional sand accumulation instrument from 2020 to 2024, studying the coastal aeolian environment and sediment transport distribution characteristics in the region. Its findings provide a theoretical basis for comprehensively analyzing the evolution of coastal aeolian landforms and the evaluation and control of coastal aeolian hazards. The research results show the following: (1) The annual average threshold wind velocity for sand movement in the study area is 6.84 m/s, and the wind speed frequency (frequency of occurrence) is 51.54%, dominated by easterly (NE, ENE) and southerly (S, SSE) winds. (2) The drift potential (DP) refers to the potential amount of sediment transported within a certain time and spatial range, and the annual drift potential (DP) and resultant drift potential (RDP) of Mulan Bay from 2020 to 2024 were 550.82 VU and 326.88 VU, respectively, indicating a high-energy wind environment. The yearly directional wind variability index (RDP/DP) was 0.59, classified as a medium ratio and indicating blunt bimodal wind conditions. The yearly resultant drift direction (RDD) was 249.45°, corresponding to a WSW direction, indicating that the sand in Mulan Bay is generally transported in the southwest direction. (3) When the measured data extracted from the sand accumulation instrument in the study area from 2020 to 2024 were used for statistical analysis, the results showed that the total sediment transport rate (the annual sediment transport of the observation section) in the study area was 110.87 kg/m·a, with the maximum sediment transport rate in the NE direction being 29.26 kg/m·a. These results suggest that when sand fixation systems are constructed for relevant infrastructure in the region, the construction direction of protective forests and other engineering measures should be perpendicular to the net direction of sand transport. Full article

To study the generation and dissipation process of agglomerate fog in mountainous expressways and deeply understand the hazard mechanisms of agglomerate fog sections in mountainous expressways, based on the analysis of the geographical location characteristics of mountainous expressways and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of agglomerate fog, the airspace constitutive model of agglomerate fog in mountainous expressways was constructed based on Newton constitutive theory. Firstly, the properties of the Newtonian fluid and cluster fog were compared and analyzed, and the influence mechanism of environmental factors such as the altitude difference, topography, water system, valley effect, and vegetation on the generation and dissipation of agglomerate fog in mountainous expressways was analyzed. Based on Newton’s constitutive theory, the constitutive model of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and agglomerate fog points in the foggy airspace of the mountainous expressway was established. Then, the time and spatial distribution of fog in Chongqing and Guizhou from 2021 to 2023 were analyzed. Finally, the model was verified by using the meteorological data and fog warning data of Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province in 2023. The results show that the foggy airspace of mountainous expressways can be defined as “the space occupied by the agglomerate fog that occurs above the mountain expressway”; The temporal and spatial distribution of foggy airspace on expressways in mountainous areas is closely related to the topography, water system, vegetation distribution, and local microclimate formed by thermal radiation. The horizontal and vertical movements of the atmosphere have little influence on the foggy airspace on expressways in mountainous areas. The specific manifestation of time distribution is that the occurrence of agglomerate fog is concentrated from November to April of the following year, and the daily occurrence time is mainly concentrated between 4:00–8:00 and 18:00–22:00. The calculation results of the foggy airspace constitutive model of the expressway in the mountainous area show that when there is low surface radiation or no surface radiation, the fogging value range is [90, 100], and the fogging value range is [50, 70] when there is high surface radiation (>200), and there is generally no fog in other intervals. The research results can provide a theoretical basis for traffic safety management and control of mountainous expressway fog sections. Full article

The widespread adoption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel has driven the development of LNG bunkering operations in global ports. Major international hubs, such as Shenzhen Port, have implemented ship-to-ship (STS) bunkering practices. However, this process entails unique safety risks, particularly hazards associated with vapor cloud dispersion caused by bunkering hose releases. This study employs the Phast software developed by DNV to systematically simulate LNG release scenarios during STS operations, integrating real-world meteorological data and storage conditions. The dynamic effects of transfer flow rates, release heights, and release directions on vapor cloud dispersion are quantitatively analyzed under daytime and nighttime conditions. The results demonstrate that transfer flow rate significantly regulates dispersion range, with recommendations to limit the rate below 1500 m³/h and prioritize daytime operations to mitigate risks. Release heights exceeding 10 m significantly amplify dispersion effects, particularly at night (nighttime dispersion area at a height of 20 m is 3.5 times larger than during the daytime). Optimizing release direction effectively suppresses dispersion, with vertically downward releases exhibiting minimal impact. Horizontal releases require avoidance of downwind alignment, and daytime operations are prioritized to reduce lateral dispersion risks. Full article

In recent years, large-scale linear infrastructure developments have been developed across hundreds of kilometers of permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The implementation of major engineering projects, including the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, oil pipelines, communication cables, and the Qinghai–Tibet Railway, has spurred intensified research into permafrost dynamics. Climate warming has accelerated permafrost degradation, leading to a range of geological hazards, most notably widespread thermokarst landslides. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and influencing factors of thermokarst landslides in Qinghai Province through an integrated approach combining field surveys, remote sensing interpretation, and statistical analysis. The study utilized multi-source datasets, including Landsat-8 imagery, Google Earth, GF-1, and ZY-3 satellite data, supplemented by meteorological records and geospatial information. The remote sensing interpretation identified 1208 cryogenic hazards in Qinghai’s permafrost regions, comprising 273 coarse-grained soil landslides, 346 fine-grained soil landslides, 146 thermokarst slope failures, 440 gelifluction flows, and 3 frost mounds. Spatial analysis revealed clusters of hazards in Zhiduo, Qilian, and Qumalai counties, with the Yangtze River Basin and Qilian Mountains showing the highest hazard density. Most hazards occur in seasonally frozen ground areas (3500–3900 m and 4300–4900 m elevation ranges), predominantly on north and northwest-facing slopes with gradients of 10–20°. Notably, hazard frequency decreases with increasing permafrost stability. These findings provide critical insights for the sustainable development of cold-region infrastructure, environmental protection, and hazard mitigation strategies in alpine engineering projects. Full article

This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations produce non-exceedance probability profiles, which indicate the likelihood of various flood levels occurring due to ice jams. The flood levels associated with specific return periods were validated using historical gauge records. The empirical equations require input parameters such as channel width, slope, and thalweg elevation, which were obtained from bathymetric surveys. This approach is applied to assess ice-jam flood hazards by extrapolating data from a gauged reach at Fort Simpson to an ungauged reach at Jean Marie River along the Mackenzie River in Canada’s Northwest Territories. The analysis further suggests that climate change is likely to increase the severity of ice-jam flood hazards in both reaches by the end of the century. This methodology is applicable to other cold-region rivers in Canada and northern Europe, provided similar fluvial geomorphological and hydro-meteorological data are available, making it a valuable tool for ice-jam flood risk assessment in other ungauged areas. Full article

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards, characterized by its slow onset, persistent nature, diverse sectoral impacts (e.g., agriculture, water resources, ecosystems), and dependence on meteorological, hydrological, and socioeconomic factors. Over the years, significant scientific effort has been devoted to developing methodologies that address its multifaceted nature, reflecting the interdisciplinary challenges of drought analysis. However, previous reviews have typically focused on individual methods, while this study presents a unified, multidisciplinary framework that integrates multiple drought analysis methods and links them to key factors guiding method selection. To address this gap, five widely used methods—index-based, remote sensing, threshold-level methods (TLM), impact-based methods, and the storyline approach—are critically evaluated from a multidisciplinary perspective. In addition, the study examines spatial and temporal trends in scientific publications, illustrating how the application of these methods has evolved over time and across regions. The primary objective of this review is twofold: (1) to provide a holistic, state-of-the-art synthesis of these methods, their applications, and their limitations; and (2) to evaluate and prioritize the critical decision-making factors, including drought type, data type/availability, study scale, and management objectives that influence method selection. By bridging this gap, the paper offers a conceptual decision-support framework for selecting context-appropriate drought analysis methods. However, challenges remain, including the vast diversity of methods beyond the scope of this review and the limited consideration of less influential factors such as user expertise, computational resources, and policy context. The paper concludes with insights and recommendations for optimizing method selection under varying circumstances, aiming to support both drought research and effective policy implementation. Full article

Heatwaves intensified by climate change increasingly threaten urban populations, especially the elderly. However, most existing studies have concentrated on short-term or single-scale analyses, lacking a comprehensive understanding of how land cover changes and urbanization affect the vulnerability of the elderly to extreme heat. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of heat-related health risks among the elderly in Nanchang City and to identify their key driving factors within the context of rapid urbanization. This study employs Crichton’s risk triangle framework to the heat-related health risks for the elderly in Nanchang, China, from 2002 to 2020 by integrating meteorological records, land surface temperature, land cover data, and socioeconomic indicators. The model captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat hazards, exposure, and vulnerability and identifies the key drivers shaping these patterns. The results show that the heat health risk index has increased significantly over time, with notably higher levels in the urban core compared to those in suburban areas. A 1% rise in impervious surface area corresponds to a 0.31–1.19 increase in the risk index, while a 1% increase in green space leads to a 0.21–1.39 reduction. Vulnerability is particularly high in economically disadvantaged, medically under-served peripheral zones. These findings highlight the need to optimize the spatial distribution of urban green space and control the expansion of impervious surfaces to mitigate urban heat risks. In high-vulnerability areas, improving infrastructure, expanding medical resources, and establishing targeted heat health monitoring and early warning systems are essential to protecting elderly populations. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive framework for assessing urban heat health risks and offers actionable insights into enhancing climate resilience and health risk management in rapidly urbanizing regions. Full article

River embankments are critical flood defense structures, stretching for thousands of kilometers across alluvial plains. They often originated as natural levees resulting from overbank flows and were later enlarged using locally available soils yet rarely designed according to modern engineering standards. Substantially under-characterized, their performance to extreme events provides an invaluable opportunity to highlight their vulnerability and then to improve monitoring, management, and reinforcement strategies. In May 2023, two extreme meteorological events hit the Emilia-Romagna region in rapid succession, causing numerous breaches along river embankments and therefore widespread flooding of cities and territories. These were followed by two additional intense events in September and October 2024, marking an unprecedented frequency of extreme precipitation episodes in the history of the region. This study presents the methodology adopted to create a regional database of 66 major breaches and damages that occurred during May 2023 extensive floods. The database integrates multi-source information, including field surveys; remote sensing data; and eyewitness documentation collected before, during, and after the events. Preliminary interpretation enabled the identification of the most likely failure mechanisms—primarily external erosion, internal erosion, and slope instability—often acting in combination. The database, unprecedented in Italy and with few parallels worldwide, also supported a statistical analysis of breach widths in relation to failure mechanisms, crucial for improving flood hazard models, which often rely on generalized assumptions about breach development. By offering insights into the real-scale behavior of a regional river defense system, the dataset provides an important tool to support river embankments risk assessment and future resilience strategies. Full article

The Dangerous Goods Transportation (DGT) presents significant challenges, requiring a strong and systematic risk assessment framework to ensure the safety and efficiency of the supply chain. This study addresses a critical gap by integrating a deterministic and holistic approach to risk assessment and management. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), meteorological data, and material-specific information, the research develops a data-driven approach to identify analyze, evaluate, and mitigate risks associated with DGT. The main objectives include monitoring dangerous goods flows to identify critical risk areas, optimizing emergency response using a shared model, and providing targeted training for stakeholders involved in DGT. The study leverages Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to systematically collect, interpret, and evaluate data, producing detailed risk scenario maps. These maps are instrumental in identifying vulnerable areas, predicting potential accidents, and assessing the effectiveness of risk management strategies. This work introduces an innovative GIS-based risk assessment model that combines static and dynamic data to address various aspects of DGT, including hazard identification, accident prevention, and real-time decision support. The results contribute to enhancing safety protocols and provide actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to improve the resilience of technological systems for road transport networks handling dangerous goods. Full article

Sea fog is a natural phenomenon that significantly reduces visibility, posing navigational hazards for ships and impacting coastal activities. Geostationary meteorological satellite data have proven to be indispensable for sea fog monitoring due to their large spatial coverage and spatiotemporal consistency. However, the spectral similarities between sea fog and low clouds result in omissions and misclassifications. Furthermore, high clouds obscure certain sea fog regions, leading to under-detection and high false alarm rates. In this paper, we present a novel sea fog detection method to alleviate the challenges. Specifically, the approach leverages a fusion of spectral, motion, and spatiotemporal texture consistency features to effectively differentiate sea fog and low clouds. Additionally, a multi-scale self-attention module is incorporated to recover the sea fog region obscured by clouds. Based on the spatial distribution characteristics of sea fog and clouds, we redesigned the loss function to integrate total variation loss, focal loss, and dice loss. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the detection accuracy is compared with the vertical feature mask produced by the CALIOP and exhibits a high level of consistency. Full article

Boao Jade Beach, on the east coast of Hainan Island, is a typical sandy beach and is one of the areas where typhoons frequently land in Hainan. This study examined wind speed, wind direction, and sediment transport data obtained from field meteorological stations and omnidirectional sand accumulation instruments from 2020 to 2024 to study the coastal aeolian environment and sediment transport distribution characteristics in the region. The findings provide a theoretical basis for comprehensive analyses of the evolution of coastal aeolian landforms and the evaluation and control of coastal aeolian hazards. The research results showed the following: (1) The annual average threshold wind velocity for sand movement in the study area was 6.13 m/s, and the wind speed frequency was 20.97%, mainly dominated by easterly winds (NNE, NE) and southerly winds (S). (2) The annual drift potential (DP) and resultant drift potential (RDP) of Boao Jade Belt Beach from 2020 to 2024 were 125.99 VU and 29.59 VU, respectively, indicating a low-energy wind environment. The yearly index of directional wind variability (RDP/DP) was 0.23, which is classified as a small ratio and indicates blunt bimodal wind conditions. The yearly resultant drift direction (RDD) was 329.41°, corresponding to the NNW direction, indicating that the sand on Boao Jade Belt Beach is generally transported in the southwest direction. (3) When the measured data from the sand accumulation instrument in the study area from 2020 to 2024 were used for a statistical analysis, the results showed that the total sediment transport rate in the study area was 39.97 kg/m·a, with the maximum sediment transport rate in the S direction being 17.74 kg/m·a. These results suggest that, when sand fixation systems are constructed for relevant infrastructure in the region, the direction of protective forests and other engineering measures should be perpendicular to the net direction of sand transport. Full article

Lightning strikes are a major hazard in tropical regions, especially in northern Brazil, where open-area industries such as mining are highly exposed. This study proposes an octant-based multi-objective optimization approach for spatial lightning alert systems, focusing on minimizing both false alarm rate (FAR) and failure-to-warn (FTW). The method uses NSGA-III to optimize a configuration vector consisting of directional radii and alert thresholds, based solely on historical lightning location data. Experiments were conducted using four years of cloud-to-ground lightning data from a mining area in Pará, Brazil. Fifteen independent runs were executed, each with 96 individuals and up to 150 generations. The results showed a clear trade-off between FAR and FTW, with optimal solutions achieving up to 16% reduction in FAR and 50% reduction in FTW when compared to a quadrant-based baseline. The use of the hypervolume metric confirmed consistent convergence across runs. Sensitivity analysis revealed spatial patterns in optimal configurations, supporting the use of directional tuning. The proposed approach provides a flexible and interpretable model for risk-based alert strategies, compliant with safety regulations such as NBR 5419/2015 and NR-22. It offers a viable solution for automated alert generation in high-risk environments, especially where detailed meteorological data is unavailable. Full article

Geological hazards pose significant threats to ecological stability, human lives, and infrastructure, necessitating precise and robust risk assessment methodologies. This study evaluates geological hazard risks in Dawukou District, Shizuishan City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, using the information value (IV) model. The study systematically identifies susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability factors influencing geological disaster risks by integrating diverse datasets encompassing geological conditions, meteorological parameters, and anthropogenic activities. The key findings reveal that hilly landforms, slope gradients, and vegetation indices are the dominant contributors to hazard development. Additional factors, including lithology, fault proximity, and precipitation, were also found to play critical roles. The results categorize the district into four risk zones: high-risk areas (1.55% of the total area), moderate-risk areas (10.16%), Low-risk areas (23.32%), and very-low-risk areas (64.97%). These zones exhibit a strong spatial correlation with geomorphic features, tectonic activity, and human engineering interventions, such as mining and infrastructure development. High-risk zones are concentrated near mining regions and fault lines with steep slopes, while low-risk zones are predominantly in flat plains and urban centers. The reliability of the risk assessment was validated through cross-referenced geological hazard occurrence data and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, achieving a high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.88). The study provides actionable insights for disaster prevention, mitigation strategies, and urban planning, offering a scientific basis for resource allocation and sustainable development. The methodology and findings serve as a replicable framework for geological hazard risk assessments in similar regions facing diverse environmental and anthropogenic challenges. Full article

The analysis of the vulnerability of vernacular buildings to climatic hazards is nowadays a subject of significant importance due to the consequences of climate change. This study assesses the vulnerability of vernacular buildings to three climatic hazards (heavy rains, strong winds and high heat) in the Kara region to identify the vulnerable parts of these constructions that require reinforcement. It is based on PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), a multi-hazard analysis methodology, which uses vulnerability indicators. It focuses on the Kabiyè and Nawdeba peoples, who are the major ethnic groups in the region. Focus groups with the population, interviews with professionals and a series of surveys of 125 households in the visited territories enabled us to identify, firstly, the types of vernacular constructions in the region, the climatic hazards that occur there and the indicators that affect the vulnerability of the constructions. Secondly, we calculated the vulnerability index for each type of construction to the three climatic hazards. The vulnerability index of Kabiyè vernacular architecture (KVA) to heavy rain, high heat and strong wind is 0.379, 0.403 and 0.356, respectively. The Nawdéba vernacular architecture (NVA) vulnerability score is 0.359 for heavy rain, 0.375 for high heat, and 0.316 for strong wind. The index of vulnerability to heavy rain, high heat and strong wind for contemporary architecture (CA), as we term the current state of evolution of these two forms of architecture, is 0.499, 0.522 and 0.456, respectively. This study reveals that contemporary architecture (CA) in the Kara region, regardless of the type of hazard considered, is the most vulnerable construction model in the region. It also highlights the indicators that accentuate the vulnerability of vernacular constructions. Regardless of the type of construction, special attention must be paid to features such as roof style (roof slope, shape and material) and building style (form and state of maintenance of the building) to increase the resilience of buildings to climatic hazards. Full article

In recent years, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has led to a rise in unplanned unit outages, posing significant risks to the safe operation of power systems and underscoring the critical need for accurate prediction and effective mitigation of wind and solar power ramp events. Unlike traditional power forecasting, ramp event prediction must capture the abrupt output variations induced by short-term meteorological fluctuations. This review systematically examines recent advancements in the field, focusing on three principal areas: the definition and detection of ramp event characteristics, innovations in predictive model architectures, and strategies for precision optimization. Our analysis reveals that while detection algorithms for ramp events have matured and the overall predictive performance of power forecasting models has improved, existing approaches often struggle to capture localized ramp phenomena, resulting in persistent deviations. Moreover, current research highlights the necessity of developing evaluation systems tailored to the specific operational hazards of ramp events, rather than relying solely on conventional forecasting metrics. The integration of artificial intelligence has accelerated progress in both event prediction and error correction. However, significant challenges remain, particularly regarding the interpretability, generalizability, and real-time applicability of advanced models. Future research should prioritize the development of adaptive, ramp-specific evaluation frameworks, the fusion of physical and data-driven modeling techniques, and the deployment of multi-modal systems capable of leveraging heterogeneous data sources for robust, actionable ramp event forecasting. Full article