Search Results (1,161)

New-generation geostationary meteorological satellite radiometric imagers widely employ multi-column redundant long-linear-array detectors, for which the Best Detector Selection (BDS) strategy is crucial for enhancing the quality of remote sensing data. Addressing the limitation of current BDS methods that often rely on a single metric and thus fail to fully exploit the detector’s comprehensive performance, this paper proposes a detector evaluation method based on a modified Z-score. This method systematically categorizes detector metrics into three types: positive, negative, and uniformity. It introduces, for the first time, spectral response deviation (SRD) as an effective quantitative measure for the Spectral Response Function (SRF) and employs a robust normalization strategy using the Interquartile Range (IQR) instead of standard deviation, enabling multi-dimensional detector evaluation and selection. Validation using laboratory data from the FY-4C/AGRI long-wave infrared band demonstrates that, compared to traditional single-metric optimization strategies, the best detectors selected by our method show significant improvement across multiple performance indicators, markedly enhancing both data quality and overall system performance. The proposed method features low computational complexity and strong adaptability, supporting on-orbit real-time detector optimization and dynamic updates, thereby providing reliable technical support for high-quality processing of remote sensing data from geostationary meteorological satellites. Full article

Modern port operations face increasing challenges from rapidly changing weather and environmental conditions, requiring accurate short-term forecasting to support safe and efficient maritime activities. This study presents a sensor fusion-based machine learning framework for real-time multi-target nowcasting of wind gust speed, sustained wind speed, and wind direction using heterogeneous data collected at the Port of Livorno from February to November 2025. Using an IoT architecture compliant with the oneM2M standard and deployed at the Port of Livorno, CNIT integrated heterogeneous data from environmental sensors (meteorological stations, anemometers) and vessel-mounted LiDAR systems through feature-level fusion to enhance situational awareness, with gust speed treated as the primary safety-critical variable due to its substantial impact on berthing and crane operations. In addition, a comparative performance analysis of Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM, Temporal Convolutional Network, Ensemble Neural Network, Transformer models, and a Kalman filter was performed. The results show that XGBoost consistently achieved the highest accuracy across all targets, with near-perfect performance in both single-split testing (R² ≈ 0.999) and five-fold cross-validation (mean R² = 0.9976). Ensemble models exhibited greater robustness than deep learning approaches. The proposed multi-target fusion framework demonstrates strong potential for real-time deployment in Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (MASS) systems and port decision-support platforms, enabling safer manoeuvring and operational continuity under rapidly varying environmental conditions. Full article

This study, conducted in the Lifang Dryland Experimental Area in Jinzhong, Shanxi Province, China, aimed to develop a method to accurately predict maize yield by combining UAV multispectral data with meteorological information. A DJI Mavic 3M UAV was used to capture four-band imagery (red, green, red-edge, and near-infrared), from which 16 vegetation indices were calculated, along with daily meteorological data. Among eight machine learning algorithms tested, ensemble models, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Trees performed best, with R² values of 0.8696 and 0.8163, respectively. SHAP analysis identified MSR and RVI as the most important features. The prediction accuracy varied across growth stages, with the jointing stage showing the highest performance (R² = 0.7161), followed by the flowering stage (R² = 0.6588). The yield exhibited a strip-like spatial distribution, ranging from 6450 to 9600 kg·ha⁻¹, influenced by field management, soil characteristics, and microtopography. K-means clustering revealed high-yield areas in the central-northern region and low-yield areas in the south, supported by a global Moran’s I index of 0.4290, indicating moderate positive spatial autocorrelation. This study demonstrates that integrating UAV multispectral data, meteorological information, and machine learning can achieve accurate yield prediction (with a relative RMSE of about 2.8%) and provides a quantitative analytical framework for spatial management in drought-prone areas. Full article

To address the challenge of obtaining high-spatiotemporal-resolution and high-precision temperature grids for agricultural meteorological monitoring, this research focuses on rice heat stress monitoring with the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) and develops a temperature correction model that synergizes physical mechanisms with a data-driven strategy by introducing a GeoAI framework. Ensemble learning methods (XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest) were utilized to process a comprehensive set of predictors, integrating dynamic surface features derived from FY-4 satellite’s high-frequency observation data. The data comprised surface thermal regime metrics, specifically the daily maximum land surface temperature (LST_max) and its diurnal range (LST_{max_min}), along with vegetation indices including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Further, topographic attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) were incorporated, such as slope, aspect, the terrain ruggedness index (TRI), and the topographic position index (TPI). The approach uniquely capitalized on the temporal resolution of geostationary data to capture the diurnal land surface dynamics crucial for bias correction. The proposed models not only enhanced temperature data quality but also achieved impressive accuracy. Across China, the root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced to 1.04 °C, mean absolute error (MAE) to 0.53 °C, and accuracy (ACC) to 0.97. Additionally, the most notable improvement was that the RMSE decreased by nearly 50% (from 2.17 °C to 1.11 °C), MAE dropped from 1.48 °C to 0.80 °C, and ACC increased from 0.72 to 0.96 in the southwestern region of China. The corrected rice heat stress data (2020–2023) indicated that significant negative correlations exist between yield loss and various heat stress metrics in the severely affected middle and lower Yangtze River region. The research confirms that embedding geostationary meteorological satellites within a GeoAI framework can effectively enhance the precision of agricultural weather monitoring and related impact assessments. Full article

Infestations of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker (D. punctatus) pose significant threats to forest ecosystem health, necessitating accurate and efficient monitoring for sustainable forest management. A monthly monitoring framework integrating spectral bands, vegetation indices, time-series features, meteorological variables, and topographic characteristics was developed. First, cloud-free Sentinel-2 composites were generated via median synthesis, and training samples were selected by integrating GF-1/2 data. Subsequently, a Weighted Composite Index (WCI) was constructed through logistic regression to quantitatively classify infestation severity levels. Meanwhile, time-series features extracted from vegetation indices were incorporated to characterize temporal damage dynamics. Finally, Random Forest (RF) models were then trained for monthly monitoring, achieving overall accuracies exceeding 86.9% with Kappa coefficients ranging from 0.825 to 0.858. The Inverted Red Edge Chlorophyll Index (IRECI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) exhibited the highest sensitivity to D. punctatus damage and thus received the greatest weights in the WCI. Time-series features ranked second in importance after vegetation indices, substantially enhancing model performance. Monitoring results from 2019 to 2024 revealed that D. punctatus infestation in Qianshan City exhibited an occurrence pattern progressing from mild to severe and from scattered to aggregated distributions, with major outbreak periods in 2019, 2021, and 2023 reflecting characteristic cyclical dynamics. This study advances existing quantitative monitoring methodologies for D. punctatus and provides technical support and a scientific foundation for precision pest monitoring and forest health management. Full article

The reliability and economic operation of power systems increasingly depend on renewable energy, making accurate short−term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction essential. Conventional approaches struggle with the nonlinear and stochastic characteristics of PV data. This study proposes an enhanced prediction framework integrating Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm–Isolation Forest (AFSA–IF) anomaly detection, Generative Adversarial Network−based feature extraction, multimodal data fusion, and a Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) model. The framework includes advanced preprocessing, fusion of meteorological and historical power data, and weather classification via one−hot encoding. Experiments on datasets from six PV plants show significant improvements in mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination compared with Transformer, Reformer, and Informer models. The results confirm the robustness and efficiency of the proposed model, especially under challenging conditions such as rainy weather. Full article

Oilseed flax (Linum usitatissimum, L.) is an important specialty oilseed crop cultivated in arid and semi-arid regions, where timely, accurate yield prediction is crucial for regional oilseed security and agricultural decision-making. To address the lack of robust county-level yield prediction models for oilseed flax, this study proposes a CNN–Informer hybrid framework that integrates convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with the Informer architecture to model multi-source spatio-temporal data. Unlike conventional Transformer-based approaches, the proposed framework combines CNN-based local temporal feature extraction with the ProbSparse attention mechanism of Informer, enabling the efficient modeling of long-range temporal dependencies across multiple years while reducing the computational burden of attention-based time-series modeling. The model incorporates multi-source inputs, including remote sensing indices (NDVI, EVI, SAVI, KNDVI), TerraClimate meteorological variables, soil properties, and historical yield records. Comprehensive experiments conducted at the county level in Gansu Province, China, demonstrate that the CNN–Informer model consistently outperforms representative machine learning and deep learning baselines (Transformer, Informer, LSTM, and XGBoost), achieving an average performance of R² = 0.82, RMSE = 0.31 t/ha, MAE = 0.21 t/ha, and MAPE = 10.33%. Results from feature ablation and historical yield window analyses reveal that a three-year historical yield window yields optimal performance, with remote sensing features contributing most strongly to predictive accuracy, while meteorological and soil variables enhance spatial adaptability under heterogeneous environmental conditions. Model robustness was further verified through fivefold county-based spatial cross-validation, indicating stable performance and strong generalization capability in unseen regions. Overall, the proposed CNN–Informer framework provides a reliable and interpretable solution for county-level oilseed flax yield prediction and offers practical insights for precision management of specialty crops in arid and semi-arid regions. Full article

Accurate and reliable estimation of renewable energy generation is critical for modern power grid management, yet the inherent volatility and distinct physical drivers of multi-source renewables present significant modeling challenges. This paper proposes a unified deep learning framework for the concurrent estimation of power generation from solar, wind, and hydro sources. This methodology, termed nowcasting, utilizes real-time weather inputs to estimate immediate power generation. We introduce a hybrid spatio-temporal CNN-LSTM architecture that leverages a two-branch design to process both sequential weather data and static, plant-specific attributes in parallel. A key innovation of our approach is the use of a physics-informed Capacity Factor as the normalized target variable, which is customized for each energy source and notably employs a non-linear, S-shaped tanh-based power curve to model wind generation. To ensure high-fidelity spatial feature integration, a cKDTree algorithm was implemented to accurately match each power plant with its nearest corresponding weather data. To guarantee methodological rigor and prevent look-ahead bias, the model was trained and validated using a strict chronological data splitting strategy and was rigorously benchmarked against Linear Regression and XGBoost models. The framework demonstrated exceptional robustness on a large-scale dataset of over 1.5 million records spanning five European countries, achieving R-squared ($R^2$) values of 0.9967 for solar, 0.9993 for wind, and 0.9922 for hydro. While traditional ensemble models performed competitively on linear solar data, the proposed CNN-LSTM architecture demonstrated superior performance in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of wind energy, confirming its superiority in capturing intricate meteorological dependencies. This study validates the significant contribution of a spatio-temporal and physics-informed framework, establishing a foundational model for real-time energy assessment and enhanced grid sustainability. Full article

High concentrations of tropospheric ozone (${\mathrm{O}}_3$) in urban areas pose a significant risk to human health. This study proposes an evaluation framework based on the XGBoost algorithm to predict ${\mathrm{O}}_3$ concentration, assessing the model’s capacity for seasonal extrapolation and spatial transferability. The experiment uses hourly air pollution data (${\mathrm{O}}_3$, NO, ${\mathrm{NO}}_2$, and NOx) and meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed, and wind direction) from six monitoring stations in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area, Mexico (from 22 September 2022 to 21 September 2023). In the preprocessing phase, the datasets were extended via feature engineering, including cyclic variables, rolling windows, and lag features, to capture temporal dynamics. The prediction models were optimized using a random search, with time-series cross-validation to prevent data leakage. The models were evaluated across a concentration range of 0.001 to 0.122 ppm, demonstrating high predictive accuracy, with a coefficient of determination (${\mathrm{R}}^2$) of up to 0.96 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.0034 ppm when predicting summer (${\mathrm{O}}_3$) concentrations without prior knowledge. Spatial generalization was robust in residential areas (${\mathrm{R}}^2$ > 0.90), but performance decreased in the industrial corridor (AQMS-NL03). We identified that this decrease is related to local complexity through the quantification of domain shift (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test) and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) diagnostics, since the model effectively learns atmospheric inertia in stable areas but struggles with the stochastic effects of NOx titration driven by industrial emissions. These findings position the proposed approach as a reliable tool for “virtual detection” while highlighting the crucial role of environmental topology in model implementation. Full article

Heavy precipitation, and its dependence on atmospheric circulation, is one of the most important weather features in Central Europe. The Polish–Czech Sudetes Mountains and their northern foreland are one of the regions where such precipitation, under certain circulation conditions, often results in floods. The main goal of this paper is to examine multiannual changes in seasonal heavy precipitation between 1961–2020 and to assess their relationship with atmospheric circulation. The data were derived from the Polish and Czech meteorological stations, representing various altitudes and geographical regions. For the purposes of the study, several indices were used, including 1-, 3-, and 5-day maximum precipitation, as well as two indices based on the 90th and 95th percentile thresholds. In the analysis concerning atmospheric circulation, the Lityński classification was considered. The results show that the changes in heavy precipitation usually do not indicate homogeneous directions and are strongly affected by applied indices, seasons, and various geographic factors. Those include the northern/southern slope exposition, which significantly determines heavy precipitation under circulation conditions typical for individual seasons. This particularly concerns heavy precipitation for the north and northeast types, which contribute to higher rates of the considered index, especially in the northern part of the mountains. Full article

With the acceleration of urbanization in China, air pollution is becoming increasingly serious, especially PM_2.5 pollution, which poses a significant threat to public health. The study employed different deep learning models, including recurrent neural network (RNN), artificial neural network (ANN), convolutional Neural Network (CNN), bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), Transformer, and novel hybrid interpretable CNN–BiLSTM–Transformer architectures for forecasting daily PM_2.5 concentrations on the integrated dataset. The dataset of meteorological factors and atmospheric pollutants in Qingdao City was used as input features for the model. Among the models tested, the hybrid CNN–BiLSTM–Transformer model achieved the highest prediction accuracy by extracting local features, capturing temporal dependencies in both directions, and enhancing global pattern and key information, with low root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (5.4236 μg/m³), low mean absolute error (MAE) (4.0220 μg/m³), low mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) (22.7791%) and high correlation coefficient (R) (0.9743) values. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis further revealed that PM₁₀, CO, mean atmospheric temperature, O_3, and SO₂ are the key influencing factors of PM_2.5. This study provides a more comprehensive and multidimensional approach for predicting air pollution, and valuable insights for people’s health and policy makers. Full article

To ensure reliable and accurate short-term photovoltaic power generation prediction, this study introduces an integrated forecasting framework that combines the gradient boosting paradigm with a dendritic neural structure, termed Gradient Boosting Multi-Bias Dendritic Units Integrated in a Fully Connected Neural Network (GBMDF). The proposed GBMDF algorithm minimizes prediction deviations by progressively capturing the nonlinear mappings between residual predictions and environmental variables through an iterative error-correction process. Compared with traditional data-driven learning algorithms, GBMDF can comprehensively utilize multiple meteorological inputs while maintaining strong interpretability and analytical transparency. Furthermore, leveraging the flexibility of the GBMDF, the prediction accuracy of existing models is improved through a proposed compensation enhancement technique. Under this mechanism, GBMDF is trained to offset the residual differences in alternative predictors by examining the correlations between the error patterns of alternative predictors and weather attributes. This enhancement method features a simple concept and effective practical performance. Validation experiments confirm that GBMDF not only achieves higher accuracy in photovoltaic output prediction but also improves the overall efficiency of other forecasting methods. Full article

Early spring frost is a major meteorological hazard during the Apple Flowering period. To improve frost event prediction, this study proposes a hybrid 1D-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model, with its core novelty lying in the integrated dual attention mechanism (Self-attention and Cross-variable Attention) and hybrid architecture. The 1D-CNN extracts extreme points and mutation features from meteorological factors, while BiLSTM captures long-term patterns such as cold wave accumulation. The dual attention mechanisms dynamically weight key frost precursors (low temperature, high humidity, calm wind), aiming to enhance the model’s focus on critical information. Using 1997–2016 data from Luochuan (four variables: Ground Surface Temperature (GST), Air Temperature (TEM), Wind Speed (WS), Relative Humidity (RH)), a segmented interpolation method increased temporal resolution to 4 h, and an adaptive Savitzky–Golay Filter reduced noise. For frost classification, Recall, Precision, and F1-score were higher than those of baseline models, and the model showed good agreement with the actual frost events in Luochuan on 6, 9, and 10 April 2013. The 4 h lead time could provide growers with timely guidance to take mitigation measures, alleviating potential losses. This research may offer modest technical references for frost prediction during the Apple Flowering period in similar regions. Full article

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon constitutes one of the most significant climate-related challenges for contemporary cities, intensifying thermal stress, energy demand, and social vulnerability. This study proposes a methodological framework that integrates multi-source data with explainable machine learning techniques in order to both analyse and support the refinement of climate adaptation policies. The approach combines satellite-derived land surface temperature from Sentinel-3, meteorological and air quality indicators, and biophysical and anthropogenic variables. After a preprocessing stage, clustering and classification models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Classifier) were trained for the city of Madrid, with inference applied to Athens as a reference case. The evaluation of model performance was complemented by explainability techniques (Feature Importance and SHAP), which highlighted temporality, soil moisture, and urban morphology as the most decisive factors for UHI intensity, while atmospheric pollutants were found to play a secondary role. These insights were systematically compared with existing international, European, and national policy frameworks, including the Sustainable Development Goals, the European Green Deal, and Spain’s National Energy and Climate Plan. The findings demonstrate how interpretable, data-driven analysis can bridge the gap between predictive modelling and governance, providing a transparent basis for targeted and evidence-based urban climate adaptation strategies. Full article

Traditional single-prediction models often exhibit limitations in meeting wind power prediction requirements in complex operational scenarios. Furthermore, the inherent “black-box” nature of deep learning models leads to limited interpretability of predictions, hindering effective support for grid dispatch planning. To address these issues, this study proposes a novel day-ahead wind power prediction method, referred to as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)–Mixture of Experts (MoE), which integrates SHAP into an MoE framework. Here, SHAP is employed for interpretability purposes. This study innovatively transforms SHAP analysis into prior knowledge to guide the decision-making of the MoE gating network and proposes a two-layer dynamic interpretation mechanism based on the collaborative analysis of gating weights and SHAP values. This approach clarifies key meteorological factors and the model’s advantageous scenarios, while quantifying the uncertainty among multiple expert decisions. Firstly, each expert model was pre-trained, and its parameters were frozen to construct a candidate expert pool. Secondly, the SHAP vectors for each pre-trained expert were computed over all sample features to characterize their decision-making logic under varying scenarios. Thirdly, an augmented feature set was constructed by fusing the original meteorological features with SHAP attribution matrices from all experts; this set was used to train the gating network within the MoE framework. Finally, for new input samples, each frozen expert model generates a prediction along with its corresponding SHAP vector, and the gating network aggregates these predictions to produce the final forecast. The proposed method was validated using operational data from an offshore wind farm located in southeastern China. Compared with the best individual expert model and traditional ensemble forecasting models, the proposed method reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 0.23% to 4.92%. Furthermore, the method elucidates the influence of key features on each expert’s decisions, offering insights into how the gating network adaptively selects experts based on the input features and expert-specific characteristics across different scenarios. Full article