Search Results (1,752)

With the growing global demand for clean energy, the accuracy of wind-power forecasting plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of power systems. However, wind-power generation is significantly influenced by meteorological conditions and is characterized by high uncertainty and multiscale fluctuations. Traditional recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, although capable of handling sequential data, struggle with modeling long-term temporal dependencies due to the vanishing gradient problem; thus, they are now rarely used. Recently, Transformer models have made notable progress in sequence modeling compared to RNNs and LSTM models. Nevertheless, when dealing with long wind-power sequences, their quadratic computational complexity (O(L²)) leads to low efficiency, and their global attention mechanism often fails to capture local periodic features accurately, tending to overemphasize redundant information while overlooking key temporal patterns. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a wind-power forecasting method based on dimension-transformed collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (DTCMMA). This method first employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to automatically identify the main periodic components in wind-power data, reconstructing the one-dimensional time series as a two-dimensional spatiotemporal representation, thereby explicitly encoding periodic features. Based on this, a collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (CMMA) mechanism is designed, which hierarchically integrates channel, spatial, and pixel attention to adaptively capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Considering the geometric characteristics of the reconstructed data, asymmetric convolution kernels are adopted to enhance feature extraction efficiency. Experiments on multiple wind-farm datasets and energy-related datasets demonstrate that DTCMMA outperforms mainstream methods such as Transformer, iTransformer, and TimeMixer in long-sequence forecasting tasks, achieving improvements in MSE performance by 34.22%, 2.57%, and 0.51%, respectively. The model’s training speed also surpasses that of the fastest baseline by 300%, significantly improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. This provides an efficient and accurate solution for wind-power forecasting and contributes to the further development and application of wind energy in the global energy mix. Full article

Meteorological satellites play a critical role in weather forecasting, climate monitoring, water resource management, and more. These satellites feature an array of radiative imaging bands, capturing dozens of spectral images that span from visible to infrared. However, the spatial resolution of these bands varies, with images at longer wavelengths typically exhibiting lower spatial resolutions, which limits the accuracy and reliability of subsequent applications. To alleviate this issue, we propose a channel–spatial attention-based network, named CSAN, designed to super-resolve all low-resolution (LR) bands to the available maximal high-resolution (HR) scale. The CSAN consists of an information fusion unit, a feature extraction module, and an image restoration unit. The information fusion unit adaptively fuses LR and HR images, effectively capturing inter-band spectral relationships and spatial details to enhance the input representation. The feature extraction module integrates channel and spatial attention into the residual network, enabling the extraction of informative spectral and spatial features from the fused inputs. Using these deep features, the image restoration unit reconstructs the missing spatial details in LR images. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed network outperforms other state-of-the-art approaches quantitatively and visually. Full article

As the largest freshwater lake in China, Poyang Lake plays a crucial role in hydrological processes. Conventional models often fail to capture the time-lagged relationships between meteorological drivers and runoff responses, while lacking regional generalization capability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel XAJ-LSTM-TFM hybrid model that accounts for time-lagged hydrological responses and enhances the regional applicability of the Xinanjiang model. The model innovatively integrates the physical mechanisms of the Xinanjiang model with the temporal learning capacity of LSTM networks. By incorporating intermediate hydrological variables (including interflow and groundwater flow) along with 1–3 day lagged meteorological features, the model achieves an average 15.3% improvement in Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) across five sub-basins, with the Ganjiang Basin attaining an NSE of 0.812 and a 25.7% reduction in flood peak errors. The results demonstrate superior runoff simulation performance and reliable generalization capability under intensive anthropogenic activities. Full article

BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS) precise point positioning (PPP)-B2b has significant potential for application in meteorological fields, such as standalone water vapor monitoring in depopulated area without Internet. In this study, the practical ability of water vapor monitoring using the BDS PPP-B2b service is illustrated through a continuously operated water vapor monitoring system in Wuhan, China, with a 25-day experiment in 2025. Original observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and BDS are collected and processed in the near real-time (NRT) mode using ephemeris from the PPP-B2b service. Precipitable water vapor PWV monitored with B2b ephemeris are evaluated with radiosonde and ERA5 reanalysis, respectively. Taking PWV from radiosonde observations as the reference, RMS of PWV based on B2b ephemeris varies from 3.71 to 4.66 mm for different satellite combinations. While those values are with a range from 3.95 to 4.55 mm when compared with ERA5 reanalysis. These values are similar to those processed with the real-time ephemeris from the China Academy of Science (CAS). In general, this study demonstrates that the practical accuracy of water vapor monitored based on the BDS PPP-B2b service can meet the basic demand for operational meteorology for the first time. This will provide a scientific reference for its wide promotion to meteorological applications in the near future. Full article

Accurate extraction of representative operating conditions is crucial for optimizing systems in renewable energy applications. This study proposes a novel framework that combines the Parzen window estimation method, ideal for nonparametric modeling of wind, solar, and load datasets, with a game theory-based time scale selection mechanism. The novelty of this work lies in integrating probabilistic density modeling with multi-indicator evaluation to derive realistic operational profiles. We first validate the superiority of the Parzen window approach over traditional Weibull and Beta distributions in estimating wind and solar probability density functions. In addition, we analyze the influence of key meteorological parameters such as wind direction, temperature, and solar irradiance on energy production. Using three evaluation metrics, the main result shows that a 3-day representative time scale offers optimal accuracy when determined through game theory methods. Validation with real-world data from Inner Mongolia confirms the robustness of the proposed method, yielding low errors in wind, solar, and load profiles. This study contributes a novel 3-day typical profile extraction method validated on real meteorological data, providing a data-driven foundation for optimizing energy storage systems under renewable uncertainty. This framework supports energy sustainability by ensuring realistic modeling under renewable intermittency. Full article

A reliable precipitation dataset with high spatial resolution is essential for climate research in the Tarim Basin. This study evaluated the performances of four models, namely a random forest (RF), a long short-term memory network (LSTM), a support vector machine (SVM), and a feedforward neural network (FNN). FNN, which was found to be superior to the other models, was used to integrate eight precipitation datasets spanning from 1990 to 2022 across the Tarim Basin, resulting in a new monthly high-resolution (0.1°) precipitation dataset named MoHiPr-TB. This dataset was subsequently bias-corrected by the China Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 (CLDAS2.0). Validation results indicate that the corrected MoHiPr-TB not only accurately reflects the spatial distribution of precipitation but also effectively simulates its intensity and interannual and seasonal variations. Moreover, MoHiPr-TB is capable of detecting the precipitation–elevation relationship in the Pamir Plateau, where precipitation initially increases and then decreases with elevation, as well as the synchronous variation of precipitation and elevation in the Tianshan region. Collectively, this study delivers a high-accuracy precipitation dataset for the Tarim Basin, which is anticipated to have extensive applications in meteorological, hydrological, and ecological research. Full article

Field trials were carried out over two tobacco cropping seasons (2020 and 2021) to assess the effectiveness of soil (PRE-T) and post-transplant (POST-T (OT)) herbicides in a tobacco crop, depending on rainfall and the type of soil. The effectiveness of PRE-T and POST-T (OT) herbicides alternated according to the presence of weeds, treatments, the region, and years. Unpredictable meteorological conditions throughout the two study years likely influenced the control of weeds. An unusually moist May in 2020 with a precipitation of 29 mm in the first WA PRE-T before the emergence of weeds generated the leaching of the PRE-T herbicide from the surface of the soil, which was likely the most probable reason for the reduced effectiveness of PRE-T-applied herbicides (less than 77%) in comparison to the POST-T (OT) application treatment in 2020 in the Prilep region. Conversely, the restricted rainfall after PRE-T and POST-T (OT) application may have caused the unsatisfactory efficacy of both PRE-T and POST-T (OT) herbicide treatments in the Titov Veles region in 2021 (less than 78 and 80%, respectively) in comparison with 2020. Excessive rain immediately after PRE-T and POST-T (OT) application resulted in the injury of tobacco plants in the Prilep region in 2020 and 2021, which was between 8 and 25%, and 7 and 22%, respectively, after seven DAHAs across both treatments. The injuries caused by pendimethalin and metolachlor were more serious. The yields of tobacco after both PRE-T and POST-T treatment in each region typically reflect the overall effectiveness of weed control and the extent of tobacco crop injury. Full article

With the wide application of airdrop technology in rescue activities in civil and aerospace fields, the importance of accurate airdrop is increasing. This work comprehensively analyzes the interactive mechanisms among multiple models affecting airdrops, including wind field distribution, drag force effect, and the parachute opening process. By integrating key parameters across various dimensions of these models, a multidimensional parameter dynamic evolution (MPDE) target prediction method for aerial delivery parachutes in radar-detected wind fields is proposed, and the Runge–Kutta method is applied to dynamically solve for the final landing point of the target. In order to verify the performance of the method, this work carries out field airdrop experiments based on the radar-measured meteorological data. To evaluate the impact of model input errors on prediction methods, this work analyzes the influence mechanism of the wind field detection error on the airdrop prediction method via the Relative Gain Array (RGA) and verifies the analytical results using the numerical simulation method. The experimental results indicate that the optimized MPDE method exhibits higher accuracy than the widely used linear airdrop target prediction method, with the accuracy improved by 52.03%. Additionally, under wind field detection errors, the linear prediction method demonstrates stronger robustness. The airdrop error shows a trigonometric relationship with the angle between the synthetic wind direction and the heading, and the phase of the function will shift according to the difference in errors. The sensitivity of the MPDE method to wind field errors is positively correlated with the size of its object parachute area. Full article

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article

The continuous development of both numerical weather model outputs and remote sensing-derived products has enabled a wide range of applications across various fields, such as agricultural water management, where the need for robust gridded weather data and recurring Earth Observations (EO) is fundamental for estimating crop water requirements (CWR) and yield. This study used the latest reanalysis dataset, AgERA5, combined with the up-to-date CM SAF SARAH-3 Satellite-Based Radiation Data as meteorological inputs of the SAFY dynamic crop growth model and a one-step evapotranspiration formula for CWR and yield estimates at the farm scale of tomato crops. The Sentinel-2 (S2) estimates of Leaf Area Index (LAI) were used to force the SAFY model as soon as they became available during the growing stage, according to the satellite passages over the area of interest. The SAFY model was calibrated with ground-based weather observations and S2 LAI data on tomato crops that were collected in several farms in Campania Region (Southern Italy) during the irrigation season, which spans from April to August. To validate the method, the model estimates were compared with field observations of irrigation volumes and harvested yield from a monitored farm in the same region for the year 2021. Results demonstrated that integrating AgERA5 and CM SAF weather datasets with S2 imagery for assimilation into the SAFY model enables accurate estimates of both CWR and yield. Full article

Flight delays pose a significant challenge to the modern aviation industry, with prediction difficulties arising from the need to accurately model spatio-temporal dependencies and uncertainties within complex air traffic networks. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel hybrid predictive framework named DenseNet-LSTM-FBLS. The framework first employs a DenseNet-LSTM module for deep spatio-temporal feature extraction, where DenseNet captures the intricate spatial correlations between airports, and LSTM models the temporal evolution of delays and meteorological conditions. In a key innovation, the extracted features are fed into a Fuzzy Broad Learning System (FBLS)—marking the first application of this method in the field of flight delay prediction. The FBLS component effectively handles data uncertainty through its fuzzy logic, while its “broad” architecture offers greater computational efficiency compared to traditional deep networks. Validated on a large-scale dataset of 198,970 real-world European flights, the proposed model achieves a prediction accuracy of 92.71%, significantly outperforming various baseline models. The results demonstrate that the DenseNet-LSTM-FBLS framework provides a highly accurate and efficient solution for flight delay forecasting, highlighting the considerable potential of Fuzzy Broad Learning Systems for tackling complex real-world prediction tasks. Full article

This study presents AD-MRCNN, an advanced deep learning framework for automated atmospheric front detection that addresses two critical limitations in existing methods. First, current approaches directly input raw meteorological data without optimizing feature compatibility, potentially hindering model performance. Second, they typically only provide frontal category information without identifying individual frontal systems. Our solution integrates two key innovations: 1. An intelligent adapter module that performs adaptive feature fusion, automatically weighting and combining multi-source meteorological inputs (including temperature, wind fields, and humidity data) to maximize their synergistic effects while minimizing feature conflicts; the utilized network achieves an average improvement of over 4% across various metrics. 2. An enhanced instance segmentation network based on Mask R-CNN architecture that simultaneously achieves (1) precise frontal type classification (cold/warm/stationary/occluded), (2) accurate spatial localization, and (3) identification of distinct frontal systems. Comprehensive evaluation using ERA5 reanalysis data (2009–2018) demonstrates significant improvements, including an 85.1% F1-score, outperforming traditional methods (TFP: 63.1%) and deep learning approaches (Unet: 83.3%), and a 31% reduction in false alarms compared to semantic segmentation methods. The framework’s modular design allows for potential application to other meteorological feature detection tasks. Future work will focus on incorporating temporal dynamics for frontal evolution prediction. Full article

Chemical leakage accidents in chemical industrial parks pose significant threats to personnel safety, particularly during evacuation processes, where individual behavior and evacuation strategies have a considerable impact on overall efficiency. This study takes a leakage incident at an alkylation unit as a case study. First, ALOHA5.4.7 software was used to simulate the influence of meteorological conditions across different seasons on the dispersion range of toxic gases, thereby generating an annual comprehensive risk zone distribution map. Subsequently, different evacuation scenarios were constructed in Pathfinder2024.1.0605, with the integration of trigger mechanisms to simulate individual behaviors during evacuation, such as variations in risk perception and peer influence. Furthermore, this study expanded the conventional application scope of Pathfinder—typically limited to small-scale building evacuations—by successfully adapting it for large-scale evacuation simulations in chemical industrial parks. The feasibility of such simulations was thereby demonstrated, highlighting the software’s potential. According to the simulation results, exit configuration, shelter placement, and individual behavior modeling significantly affect the total evacuation time. This study provides both theoretical insights and practical guidance for emergency response planning in chemical industrial parks. Full article

Accurate terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) estimation is crucial for understanding land–atmosphere interactions, evaluating ecosystem functions, and supporting water resource management, particularly across climatically diverse regions. To address the limitations of traditional ET models, we propose a simple yet robust Sigmoid-RH model that characterizes the nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and ET. Unlike conventional approaches such as the Penman–Monteith or Priestley–Taylor models, the Sigmoid-RH model requires fewer inputs and is better suited for large-scale applications where data availability is limited. In this study, we applied the Sigmoid-RH model to estimate ET over mainland China from 2001 to 2018 by using satellite remote sensing and meteorological reanalysis data. Key driving inputs included air temperature (Ta), net radiation (Rn), relative humidity (RH), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), all of which are readily available from public datasets. Validation at 20 flux tower sites showed strong performance, with R-square (R²) ranging from 0.26 to 0.93, Root Mean Squard Error (RMSE) from 0.5 to 1.3 mm/day, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) from 0.16 to 0.91. The model performed best in mixed forests (KGE = 0.90) and weakest in shrublands (KGE = 0.27). Spatially, ET shows a clear increasing trend from northwest to southeast, closely aligned with climatic zones, with national mean annual ET of 560 mm/yr, ranging from less than 200 mm/yr in arid zones to over 1100 mm/yr in the humid south. Seasonally, ET peaked in summer due to monsoonal rainfall and vegetation growth, and was lowest in winter. Temporally, ET declined from 2001 to 2009 but increased from 2009 to 2018, influenced by changes in precipitation and NDVI. These findings confirm the applicability of the Sigmoid-RH model and highlight the importance of hydrothermal conditions and vegetation dynamics in regulating ET. By improving the accuracy and scalability of ET estimation, this model can provide practical implications for drought early warning systems, forest ecosystem management, and agricultural irrigation planning under changing climate conditions. Full article

Accurate drought monitoring depends on selecting an appropriate cumulative distribution function (CDF) to model the original data, resulting in the standardized drought indices. In the numerous research studies, while rigorous validation was not made by scrutinizing the model assumptions and uncertainties in identifying theoretical drought CDF models, such oversights lead to biased representations of drought evaluation and characteristics. This research compares the parametric theoretical and empirical CDFs for a comprehensive evaluation of standardized Drought Indices. Additionally, it examines the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of both empirical and theoretical distribution functions in drought assessment. Three drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), cover meteorological and hydrological droughts. The assessment spans diverse applications, covering different climates and regions: Durham, United Kingdom (SPEI, 1868–2021); Konya, Türkiye (SPI, 1964–2022); and Lüleburgaz, Türkiye (SDI, 1957–2015). The findings reveal that theoretical and empirical CDFs demonstrated notable discrepancies, particularly in long-term hydrological drought assessments, where underestimations reached up to 50%, posing risks of misinformed conclusions that may impact critical drought-related decisions and policymaking. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for SPI3 between empirical and best-fitted CDF was 0.087, and between empirical and Gamma it was 0.152. For SDI, it ranged between 0.09 and 0.143. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for SPEI was approximately 0.05 for all timescales. Additionally, it concludes that empirical CDFs provide more reliable and conservative drought assessments and are free from the constraints of model assumptions. Both approaches gave approximately the same drought duration with different intensities regarding drought characteristics. Due to the complex process of drought events and different definitions of drought events, each drought event must be studied separately, considering its effects on different sectors. Full article