Search Results (217)

Monkeypox is a viral disease belonging to the smallpox family. Although it has milder symptoms than smallpox in humans, it has become a global threat in recent years, especially in African countries. Initially, incidental immunity against monkeypox was provided by smallpox vaccines. However, the eradication of smallpox over time and thus the lack of vaccination has led to the widespread and clinical importance of monkeypox. Although mathematical epidemiology research on the disease is complementary to clinical studies, it has attracted attention in the last few years. The present study aims to discuss the indispensable effects of three control strategies such as vaccination, treatment, and quarantine to prevent the monkeypox epidemic modeled via the Atangana–Baleanu operator. The main purpose is to determine optimal control measures planned to reduce the rates of exposed and infected individuals at the minimum costs. For the controlled model, the existence-uniqueness of the solutions, stability, and sensitivity analysis, and numerical optimal solutions are exhibited. The optimal system is numerically solved using the Adams-type predictor–corrector method. In the numerical simulations, the efficacy of the vaccination, treatment, and quarantine controls is evaluated in separate analyzes as single-, double-, and triple-control strategies. The results demonstrate that the most effective strategy for achieving the aimed outcome is the simultaneous application of vaccination, treatment, and quarantine controls. Full article

Motivation: We aim to study the boundary stability and persistence of positive odes in mathematical epidemiology models by importing structural tools from chemical reaction networks. This is largely a review work, which attempts to congregate the fields of mathematical epidemiology (ME), and chemical reaction networks (CRNs), based on several observations. We started by observing that epidemiologic strains, defined as disjoint blocks in either the Jacobian on the infected variables, or as blocks in the next generating matrix (NGM), coincide in most of the examples we studied, with either the set of critical minimal siphons or with the set of minimal autocatalytic sets (cores) in an underlying CRN. We leveraged this to provide a definition of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) face/infected set as the union of either all minimal siphons, or of all cores (they always coincide in our examples). Next, we provide a proposed definition of ME models, as models which have a unique boundary fixed point on the DFE face, and for which the Jacobian of the infected subnetwork admits a regular splitting, which allows defining the famous next generating matrix. We then define the interaction graph on minimal siphons (IGMS), whose vertices are minimal siphons, and whose edges indicate the existence of reactions producing species in one siphon from species in another. When this graph is acyclic, we say the model exhibits an Acyclic Minimal Siphon Decomposition (AMSD). For AMSD models whose minimal siphons partition the infection species, we show that the NGM is block triangular after permutation, which implies the classical max structure of the reproduction number $R_0$ for multi-strain models. In conclusion, using irreversible reaction networks, minimal siphons and acyclic siphon decompositions, we provide a natural bridge from CRN to ME. We implement algorithms to compute IGMS and detect AMSD in our Epid-CRN Mathematica package (which already contain modules to identify minimal siphons, criticality, drainability, self-replicability, etc.). Finally, we illustrate on several multi-strain ME examples how the block structure induced by AMSD, and the ME reproduction functions, allow expressing boundary stability and persistence conditions by comparing growth numbers to 1, as customary in ME. Note that while not addressing the general Persistence Conjecture mentioned in the title, our work provides a systematic method for deriving boundary instability conditions for a significant class of structured models. Full article

In this work, we introduce a new four-parameter distribution, called the integrated linear–Weibull (ILW) model, constructed by embedding a dynamic linear component within the Weibull framework. The ILW distribution is capable of capturing a wide variety of symmetric and asymmetric density shapes and accommodates diverse failure-rate behaviors. We derive several of its key mathematical and statistical properties, including moments, extropy, cumulative residual entropy, order statistics, and their asymptotic forms. The mean residual life function and its reciprocal relationship with the failure rate are also obtained. An algorithm for generating random samples from the ILW distribution is provided, and model identifiability is examined numerically through the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Parameter estimation is carried out via maximum likelihood, and a simulation study is conducted to assess the accuracy of the estimators; the results show improvements in estimator performance as sample size increases. Finally, three real datasets involving failure-time observations and one describing hydrological and epidemiological data are analyzed to demonstrate the practical usefulness of the ILW model. In these applications, the proposed model exhibits competitive or superior performance relative to several existing lifetime distributions based on standard model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit measures. Full article

In disciplines such as epidemiology, economics, and public health, inference and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) are critical. This approach helps reveal differences in treatment effect estimates between subgroups, which supports personalized decision-making processes. While a variety of meta-learners (e.g., S-, T-, X-learners) have been proposed for estimating HTE, there is a lack of consensus on their relative strengths and weaknesses under different data conditions. To address this gap and provide actionable guidance for applied researchers, this study conducts a comprehensive simulation-based comparison of these methods. We first introduce the causal inference framework and review the underlying principles of the methods used to estimate these effects. We then simulate different data generating processes (DGPs) and compare the performance of S-, T-, X-, DR-, and R-learners with the causal forest, highlighting the potential of meta-learners for HTE estimation. Our evaluation reveals that each learner excels under distinct conditions: the S-learner yields the least bias and is most robust when the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is approximately zero; the T-learner provides accurate estimates when the response functions differ significantly between the treatment and control groups, resulting in a complex CATE structure, and the X-learner can accurately estimate the HTE in imbalanced data.Additionally, by integrating Z-bias—a bias that may arise when adjusting the covariate only affects the treatment variable—with a specific sensitivity analysis, this study demonstrates its effectiveness in reducing the bias of causal effect estimates. Finally, through an empirical analysis of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019 data, we illustrate how to implement these insights in practice, showcasing a workflow for HTE assessment within the meta-learner framework. Full article

Based on existing models, this paper incorporates some key ecological factors, thereby obtaining a class of eco-epidemiological models that can more objectively reflect natural phenomena. This model simultaneously integrates disease dynamics within the prey population and the Beddington–DeAngelis functional response, thus achieving an organic combination of ecological dynamics, epidemic transmission, and spatial movement under time-varying environmental conditions. The proposed framework significantly enhances ecological realism by simultaneously accounting for spatial dispersal, predator–prey interactions, disease transmission within prey species, and seasonal or temporal variations, providing a comprehensive mathematical tool for analyzing complex eco-epidemiological systems. The theoretical results obtained from this study can be summarized as follows: Firstly, the existence and uniqueness of globally positive solutions for any positive initial data are rigorously established, ensuring the well-posedness and biological feasibility of the model over extended temporal scales. Secondly, analytically tractable sufficient conditions for uniform population persistence are derived, which elucidate the mechanisms of species coexistence and biodiversity preservation even under sustained epidemiological pressure. Thirdly, by employing innovative applications of differential inequalities and fixed point theory, the existence and uniqueness of a positive spatially homogeneous periodic solution in the presence of time-periodic coefficients are conclusively demonstrated, capturing essential rhythmicities inherent in natural systems. Fourthly, through a sophisticated combination of the upper and lower solution method for parabolic partial differential equations and Lyapunov stability theory, the global asymptotic stability of this periodic solution is rigorously established, offering a powerful analytical guarantee for long-term predictive modeling. Beyond theoretical contributions, these research findings provide actionable insights and quantitative analytical tools to tackle pressing ecological and public health challenges. They facilitate the prediction of thresholds for maintaining ecosystem stability using real-world data, enable the analysis and assessment of disease persistence in spatially structured environments, and offer robust theoretical support for the planning and design of wildlife management and conservation strategies. The derived criteria support evidence-based decision-making in areas such as controlling zoonotic disease outbreaks, maintaining ecosystem stability, and mitigating anthropogenic impacts on ecological communities. A representative numerical case study has been integrated into the analysis to verify all of the theoretical findings. In doing so, it effectively highlights the model’s substantial theoretical value in informing policy-making and advancing sustainable ecosystem management practices. Full article

Understanding how emotions and psychological states influence both individual and collective actions is critical for expressing the real complexity of biosocial and ecological systems. Recent breakthroughs in mathematical modeling have created new opportunities for systematically integrating these emotion-specific elements into dynamic frameworks ranging from human health to animal ecology and socio-technical systems. This review builds on mathematical modeling approaches by bringing together insights from neuroscience, psychology, epidemiology, ecology, and artificial intelligence to investigate how psychological effects such as fear, stress, and perception, as well as memory, motivation, and adaptation, can be integrated into modeling efforts. This article begins by examining the influence of psychological factors on brain networks, mental illness, and chronic physical diseases (CPDs), followed by a comparative discussion of model structures in human and animal psychology. It then turns to ecological systems, focusing on predator–prey interactions, and investigates how behavioral responses such as prey refuge, inducible defense, cooperative hunting, group behavior, etc., modulate population dynamics. Further sections investigate psychological impacts in epidemiological models, in which risk perception and fear-driven behavior greatly affect disease spread. This review article also covers newly developing uses in artificial intelligence, economics, and decision-making, where psychological realism improves model accuracy. Through combining these several strands, this paper argues for a more subtle, emotionally conscious way to replicate intricate adaptive systems. In fact, this study emphasizes the need to include emotion and cognition in quantitative models to improve their descriptive and predictive ability in many biosocial and environmental contexts. Full article

Rabies remains a persistent zoonotic threat, particularly in regions where domestic dogs are the main source of human and animal infections. This mathematical model studies the dynamics of rabies transmission between canine populations (dog-to-dog) and from canines to humans (dog-to-human). The model incorporates susceptible, infected, and vaccinated compartments for both species, with pre-exposure vaccination as the key control strategy. Processes such as encapsulation, stability enhancement, and controlled release are modelled as parameters influencing vaccination rates in both dogs and humans. Specifically, the model introduces processing-dependent vaccination functions that reflect improved bioavailability, immunogenicity, and delivery efficiency due to advanced formulation techniques. This interdisciplinary approach bridges mathematical epidemiology and pharmaceutical technology. Earlier rabies models focus on transmission and static vaccination, often ignoring vaccine formulation and delivery. Our current work fills this gap by incorporating pharmaceutical and particle engineering parameters into the vaccination terms of the model, thereby providing a more comprehensive framework for optimizing rabies control strategies in endemic regions. Positivity and boundedness analyses confirm that all model variables remain biologically feasible and bounded over time. Stability analysis identifies thresholds for disease elimination or persistence. Numerical simulations show that enhancing pharmaceutical parameters increases vaccination impact, reducing peak infection prevalence in dogs from 18% to 5% and in humans from 4% to 0.8%, and shortening elimination time from 8 years to 3 years. Formulations with controlled release and improved stability maintain over 90% reduction in transmission for more than 5 years, compared to 60% over 3 years for conventional vaccines. This will ensure that the model’s predictions are validated against realistic conditions and can effectively guide rabies control strategies. Full article

Accurate, efficient, and explainable modeling of the dynamics of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) remains, in many aspects, a significant challenge. While compartmental models such as SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) remain widely used for that purpose due to their simplicity, they cannot capture the complicated multiscale nature of disease progression which unites individual-level interactions affecting the initial phase of an outbreak and mass action laws governing the disease transmission in its general phase. Individual-based models (IBMs) offer a detailed representation capable of capturing these transmission nuances but have high computational demands. In this work, we explore hybrid and surrogate approaches to accelerate forecasting of acute respiratory infection dynamics performed via detailed epidemic models. The hybrid approach combines IBMs and compartmental models, dynamically switching between them with the help of statistical and ML-based methods. The surrogate approach, on the other hand, replaces IBM simulations with trained autoencoder approximations. Our results demonstrate that the usage of machine learning techniques and hybrid modeling allows us to obtain a significant speed–up compared to the original individual-based model—up to 1.6–2 times for the hybrid approach and up to ${10}^4$ times in case of a surrogate model—without compromising accuracy. Although the suggested approaches cannot fully replace the original model, under certain scenarios they make forecasting with fine-grained epidemic models much more feasible for real-time use in epidemic surveillance. Full article

Lassa fever remains a significant zoonotic threat in West Africa, characterized by complex human-to-human and rodent-to-human transmission pathways and prolonged immune responses. Existing integer-order models often neglect the long-term memory and delayed recovery effects inherent to the disease. In this study, we develop and analyze a fractional-order Caputo model for Lassa fever transmission incorporating disability feedback among recovered individuals. The model captures memory-dependent infection and recovery dynamics, offering a more realistic description of epidemic persistence. The model is symmetric when the fractional approach to unity where it recovers its classical ODE counterpart. Analytical results establish the positivity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness of solutions, while Picard stability and contraction mapping confirm well-posedness within the fractional framework. A Grünwald–Letnikov discretization scheme is constructed for numerical simulation, validated under varying fractional orders ($\lambda \in [0.7,1]$). The results reveal that decreasing the fractional order slows the infection decay rate and prolongs epidemic duration, highlighting the biological significance of memory effects. A global sensitivity analysis based on Latin Hypercube Sampling and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (LHS–PRCC) identifies the rodent-to-human transmission rate (${\kappa }_1$), human-to-human transmission rate (${\eta }_1$), and rodent interaction rate (${\xi }_r$) as the most influential parameters. These findings provide critical insight into the control and management of Lassa fever through rodent population control, improved recovery rates, and early human intervention. The fractional-order formulation thus extends existing models both mathematically and epidemiologically by capturing delayed dynamics and disability-induced feedback mechanisms. Full article

Most existing fractional models of COVID-19 describe only the infection process without explicitly accounting for the role of vaccination. In this study, a refined Caputo fractional model is proposed that incorporates a vaccinated class to better understand how immunization influences disease progression. The mathematical formulation guarantees the existence, uniqueness, and positivity of solutions, ensuring that all system trajectories remain biologically valid. The equilibrium points are obtained, and the reproduction number is derived to identify the conditions for disease control. The stability investigation covers local behavior alongside Ulam–Hyers and its extended variants, ensuring the system remains stable under small perturbations. Numerical experiments performed with the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton algorithm illustrate that vaccination reduces infection peaks and shortens the epidemic duration. Overall, the proposed framework enriches fractional epidemiological modeling by providing deeper insight into the combined effects of memory and vaccination in controlling infectious diseases. Full article

Sandflies spread the neglected vector-borne disease anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL), which only affects humans. Despite decades of control, asymptomatic carriers, vector pesticide resistance, and low public awareness prevent eradication. This study proposes a fractional-order optimal control model that integrates biological and behavioral aspects of ACL transmission to better understand its complex dynamics and intervention responses. We model asymptomatic human illnesses, insecticide-resistant sandflies, and a dynamic awareness function under public health campaigns and collective behavioral memory. Four time-dependent control variables—symptomatic treatment, pesticide spraying, bed net use, and awareness promotion—are introduced under a shared budget constraint to reflect public health resource constraints. In addition, Caputo fractional derivatives incorporate memory-dependent processes and hereditary effects, allowing for epidemic and behavioral states to depend on prior infections and interventions; on the other hand, standard integer-order frameworks miss temporal smoothness, delayed responses, and persistence effects from this memory feature, which affect optimal control trajectories. Next, we determine the optimality conditions for fractional-order systems using a generalized Pontryagin’s maximum principle, then solve the state–adjoint equations numerically with an efficient forward–backward sweep approach. Simulations show that fractional (memory-based) dynamics capture behavioral inertia and cumulative public response, improving awareness and treatment efforts. Furthermore, sensitivity tests indicate that integer-order models do not predict the optimal allocation of limited resources, highlighting memory effects in epidemiological decision-making. Consequently, the proposed method provides a realistic and flexible mathematical basis for cost-effective and sustainable ACL control plans in endemic settings, revealing how memory-dependent dynamics may affect disease development and intervention efficiency. Full article

In this study, we develop and analyze an extended SEIR-type compartmental model that incorporates vaccination and treatment to describe the dynamics of acute respiratory infection transmission. The model subdivides the infectious population into several symptomatic stages and an asymptomatic class, which allows the evaluation of control strategies across different levels of infection severity. The basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is analytically derived, and its sensitivity to vaccination and treatment rates is examined to assess the impact of public health interventions on epidemic control. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the joint implementation of vaccination and treatment can markedly reduce disease prevalence and lead to infection elimination when ${\mathcal{R}}_0<1$. The results emphasize the critical role of parameter interactions in determining disease persistence and show that combining both interventions produces stronger epidemiological effects than either one alone. Machine learning techniques, specifically Support Vector Machines (SVMs), are employed to classify epidemiological outcomes and support parameter estimation. The biological markers evaluated were not effective discriminants of infection status, underscoring the importance of integrating mechanistic modeling with data-driven approaches. This combined framework enhances the understanding of epidemic dynamics and improves the predictive capacity for decision-making in public health. Full article

Background: Monkeypox (Mpox) is a re-emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV). Transmission occurs primarily through direct contact with lesions or contaminated materials, with sexual transmission playing a significant role in recent outbreaks. In 2022, Mpox triggered a major global outbreak and was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO), prompting renewed interest in effective control strategies. Methods: This study developed a compartmental SEIR-based model to assess the epidemiological impact of key interventions, including vaccination and isolation, while incorporating critical epidemiological parameters. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine (1) disease dynamics in relation to the basic reproduction number, and (2) how different parameters influence the curve of symptomatic infections. Real-world continental-scale data were used to validate the model and identify the parameters that most significantly affect epidemic progression and potential control of Mpox. Results: Results showed that the basic reproduction number was most influenced by the recovery rate, vaccination rate, vaccine effectiveness, and transmission rates of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. In contrast, the progression of symptomatic cases was highly sensitive to the case fatality rate and incubation rate. Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of integrated public health strategies combining vaccination, isolation, and early transmission control to mitigate future Mpox outbreaks. Full article

This study introduces a novel Fuzzy Piecewise Fractional Derivative (FPFD) framework to enhance epidemiological modeling, specifically for the multi-phasic co-infection dynamics of Omicron and malaria. We address the limitations of traditional models by incorporating two key realities. First, we use fuzzy set theory to manage the inherent uncertainty in biological parameters. Second, we employ piecewise fractional operators to capture the dynamic, phase-dependent nature of epidemics. The framework utilizes a fuzzy classical derivative for initial memoryless spread and transitions to a fuzzy Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo (ABC) fractional derivative to capture post-intervention memory effects. We establish the mathematical rigor of the FPFD model through proofs of positivity, boundedness, and stability of equilibrium points, including the basic reproductive number (R0). A hybrid numerical scheme, combining Fuzzy Runge–Kutta and Fuzzy Fractional Adams–Bashforth–Moulton algorithms, is developed for solving the system. Simulations show that the framework successfully models dynamic shifts while propagating uncertainty. This provides forecasts that are more robust and practical, directly informing public health interventions. Full article

This paper examines solutions to mathematical models based on functional-differential equations, which have applications in immunology. This new approach allows us to study discontinuous solutions that more accurately depict real-world phenomena. It also enables us to exploit the information contained in the initial function. We discuss immunology models by generalizing existing impulsive delay differential equation models to the proposed form. The new phase space introduced here enables a unified approach to continuous and impulsive solutions that were previously studied, as well as the development of new properties that depend on the initial function. To illustrate our work, we present extensions of current immunological models and demonstrate some applications in fields beyond immunology. This paper focuses on establishing the theoretical basis for modifying models based on delayed differential equations, which are not limited to immunology. It also provides some examples. Full article