Analysis of Modeling and Statistics for COVID-19, 2nd edition

A special issue of COVID (ISSN 2673-8112).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 January 2026 | Viewed by 888

Special Issue Editors


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Magnetism and Interface Physics & Computational Polymer Physics, Department of Materials, ETH Zurich, Leopold-Ruzicka-Weg 4, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland
Interests: polymer physics; computational physics; applied mathematics; stochastic differential equations; coarse-graining; biophysics
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Guest Editor
Theoretical Physics Institute, Ruhr University Bochum, 44780 Bochum, Germany
Interests: astrophysics; plasma physics
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Modeling the COVID-19 outbreak requires considering a large amount of data, at the global level, related to the reported number of new cases, deaths, and people vaccinated, segmented by region, age group, and other groups.

These data must first be analyzed via statistical methods (time series analysis, principal component analysis, technical classification, etc.), before being used to build refutable models of different types, such as deterministic (differentiable or discrete) or stochastic models.

Considering the spatial dimension can lead to diffusion models, which can consider the ages of the patients for population dynamics models and advances in the dynamics of the infection for variable reproduction number models (due to the contagiousness, virulence, and susceptibility in the host and the virus changing over time due to viral mutations, environmental changes, host immunity, public health policy, etc.).

A combination of these three types of models is also possible, with the additional consideration of the stochastic variability on the observed data and the parameters introduced into the models. All articles dealing with the statistical and dynamic aspects of COVID-19, which allow for its statistical description, the study of its mechanisms, and the forecasting of its evolution, will be considered in this Special Issue, titled “Analysis of Modeling and Statistics for COVID-19, 2nd Edition”.

Prof. Dr. Martin Kröger
Prof. Dr. Reinhard Schlickeiser
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. COVID is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1200 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • COVID-19 statistics
  • epidemiological modeling
  • time series analysis
  • prediction techniques
  • outbreak spatial diffusion
  • daily reproduction number
  • contagion modeling
  • viral mutation modeling
  • virulence mechanisms
  • host immunity modeling
  • mitigation measures dynamics
  • vaccination policy

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

32 pages, 3050 KB  
Article
Determining the Impact of Exogenous Factors in Acute Respiratory Infections Using a Mathematical Epidemiological Model—Case Study of COVID-19 in a Peruvian Hospital
by Pedro I. Pesantes-Grados, Emma Cambillo-Moyano, Erasmo H. Colona-Vallejos, Libertad Alzamora-Gonzales, Dina Torres Gonzales, Giannina Tineo Pozo, Elena Chamorro Chirinos, Cynthia Lorenzo Quito, Elias E. Aguirre-Siancas, Eliberto Ruiz-Ramirez and Roxana López-Cruz
COVID 2025, 5(11), 190; https://doi.org/10.3390/covid5110190 - 4 Nov 2025
Abstract
In this study, we develop and analyze an extended SEIR-type compartmental model that incorporates vaccination and treatment to describe the dynamics of acute respiratory infection transmission. The model subdivides the infectious population into several symptomatic stages and an asymptomatic class, which allows the [...] Read more.
In this study, we develop and analyze an extended SEIR-type compartmental model that incorporates vaccination and treatment to describe the dynamics of acute respiratory infection transmission. The model subdivides the infectious population into several symptomatic stages and an asymptomatic class, which allows the evaluation of control strategies across different levels of infection severity. The basic reproduction number R0 is analytically derived, and its sensitivity to vaccination and treatment rates is examined to assess the impact of public health interventions on epidemic control. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the joint implementation of vaccination and treatment can markedly reduce disease prevalence and lead to infection elimination when R0<1. The results emphasize the critical role of parameter interactions in determining disease persistence and show that combining both interventions produces stronger epidemiological effects than either one alone. Machine learning techniques, specifically Support Vector Machines (SVMs), are employed to classify epidemiological outcomes and support parameter estimation. The biological markers evaluated were not effective discriminants of infection status, underscoring the importance of integrating mechanistic modeling with data-driven approaches. This combined framework enhances the understanding of epidemic dynamics and improves the predictive capacity for decision-making in public health. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analysis of Modeling and Statistics for COVID-19, 2nd edition)
45 pages, 4127 KB  
Article
Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Stochastic COVID-19 and Hepatitis B Co-Infection Dynamics
by Michael Asamani Pobbi, Samuel Mindakifoe Naandam and Stephen Edward Moore
COVID 2025, 5(11), 183; https://doi.org/10.3390/covid5110183 - 25 Oct 2025
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Abstract
The recent resurgence of COVID-19 in a Hepatitis B virus some endemic countries could lead to adverse outcomes. In this article, we formulate and analyse a mathematical model to explains the co-infection dynamics of Hepatitis B virus and COVID-19. Our aim is to [...] Read more.
The recent resurgence of COVID-19 in a Hepatitis B virus some endemic countries could lead to adverse outcomes. In this article, we formulate and analyse a mathematical model to explains the co-infection dynamics of Hepatitis B virus and COVID-19. Our aim is to investigate the effect of Hepatitis B virus prevention, COVID-19 prevention, COVID-19 vaccination, and environmental factors on transmission dynamics, and formulate conditions for extinction and persistence of the diseases. First, we derive the basic reproduction number for HBV only, COVID-19 only, and co-infection stochastic models using the next-generation matrix method. Next, we establish the conditions for stability in the stochastic sense for HBV only, COVID-19 only sub-models, and the co-infection model using suitable Lyapunov functions. Furthermore, we devote our attention to finding sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence. Finally, motivated by Ghana data, we applied the Euler–Murayama scheme to illustrate the dynamics of the co-infection, COVID-19, HBV, and the effect of some parameters on disease transmission dynamics by means of numerical simulations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analysis of Modeling and Statistics for COVID-19, 2nd edition)
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