Search Results (211)

X-ray and EUV solar flare emission cause increases in the Earth’s dayside ionospheric electron density. While the response of the lower ionosphere to X-rays is well studied, the delay between EUV flare emission and the response of the ionospheric F-region has not been investigated. Here, we calculate the delays between incident He II 304 Å emission, and the TEC response for 10 powerful solar flares, all of which exhibit delays under 1 min. We assess these delays in relation to multiple solar and geophysical factors, and find a strong negative correlation (∼−0.85) between delay and He II flux change and a moderate negative correlation (∼−0.55) with rate of increase in He II flux. Additionally, flare magnitude and the X-ray-to-He II flux ratio at peak He II emission show strong negative correlations with delay (∼−0.80 and ∼−0.75, respectively). We also identify longer delays for flares occurring closer to the summer solstice. These results may have applications in upper-ionospheric recombination rate calculations, atmospheric modelling, and other solar–terrestrial studies. We highlight the importance of incident EUV and X-ray flux parameters on the response time of the ionospheric electron content, and these findings may also have implications for mitigating disruptions in communication and navigation systems. Full article

Localized ionization enhancements (LIEs) in altitude range corresponding to the D-region ionosphere, disrupting Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) signal propagation. This case study focuses on Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation (LEP), analyzing amplitude and phase variations in VLF signals recorded in Belgrade, Serbia, from worldwide transmitters. Due to the localized, transient nature of Energetic Electron Precipitation (EEP) events and the path-dependence of VLF responses, research relies on event-specific case studies to model reflection height and sharpness via numerical simulations. Findings show LIEs are typically under 1000 × 500 km, with varying internal structure. Accumulated case studies and corresponding data across diverse conditions contribute to a broader understanding of ionospheric dynamics and space weather effects. These findings enhance regional modeling, support aerosol–electricity climate research, and underscore the value of VLF-based ionospheric monitoring and collaboration in Europe. Full article

We present lightning-induced ionospheric perturbations in narrowband very-low-frequency (VLF) signals from the transmitters NWC (21.82° S, 114.17° E, 19.8 kHz) and VTX (8.4° N, 77.8° E, 18.6 kHz) recorded at the low-latitude station Dehradun (DDN; 30.3° N, 78.0° E) over a 12-month period from September 2020 to October 2021. Early/slow VLF events, VLF LOREs, and step-like VLF LOREs associated with lightning were analyzed for their onset and recovery times. This study utilized data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), which provides lightning locations and energy estimates. The results show that early/slow VLF events occur most frequently, accounting for approximately 68% of cases, followed by VLF LOREs at 12%, and step-like VLF LOREs at 10%. Furthermore, we observed that 100% of the VLF perturbing events occurred during the nighttime, which is not entirely consistent with previous studies. Moreover, more than 60% of VLF LOREs were associated with lightning energies of approximately 1 kJ, and about 40% were associated with lightning energies of ~10 kJ. Step-like VLF LOREs were linked to WWLLN energies between 1 and 5 kJ. The observed WWLLN energy range is somewhat lower than the energies reported in previous studies. Scattering characteristics revealed that 87.3% of events were associated with wide-angle scattering, while approximately 12.6% were linked to narrow-angle scattering. LWPC version 2.1 was used to simulate these perturbing events and to estimate the reflection height (H′, in km) and the exponential sharpness factor (β, in km⁻¹) corresponding to changes in D-region electron density. The reflection height (H′, in km) and the exponential sharpness factor (β, in km⁻¹) of the D-region varied from 83 to 87 km and from 0.42 to 0.79 km⁻¹ for early/slow VLF events, from 83 to 85 km and from 0.5 to 0.75 km⁻¹ for step-like VLF LOREs, and from 81 to 83 km and from 0.75 to 0.81 km⁻¹ for VLF LOREs, respectively. Full article

Knowledge of ionospheric plasma altitudinal distribution is crucial for the effective operation of radio wave propagation, communication, and navigation systems. High-frequency sounding radars—ionosondes—provide unbiased benchmark measurements of ionospheric plasma density due to a direct relationship between the frequency of sound waves and ionospheric electron density. But ground-based ionosonde observations are limited by the F2 layer peak height and cannot probe the topside ionosphere. GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) onboard Low-Earth-Orbiting satellites can provide measurements of plasma distribution from the lower ionosphere up to satellite orbit altitudes (~500–600 km). The main goal of this study is to investigate opportunities to obtain full observation-based ionospheric electron density profiles (EDPs) by combining advantages of ground-based ionosondes and GNSS RO. We utilized the high-rate Ebre and El Arenosillo ionosonde observations and COSMIC-2 RO EDPs colocated over the ionosonde’s area of operation. Using two types of ionospheric remote sensing techniques, we demonstrated how to create the combined ionospheric EDPs based solely on real high-quality observations from both the bottomside and topside parts of the ionosphere. Such combined EDPs can serve as an analogy for incoherent scatter radar-derived “full profiles”, providing a reference for the altitudinal distribution of ionospheric plasma density. Using the combined reference EDPs, we analyzed the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere model to evaluate model–data discrepancies. Hence, these new profiles can play a significant role in validating empirical models of the ionosphere towards their further improvements. Full article

This study aims to develop a high-resolution temperature dataset from 40 km to 110 km over China by machine learning techniques, with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and vertical resolution of 1 km, utilizing measurements from SABER onboard the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) and Fengyun 4A (FY-4A) satellites. Accurate temperature profiles play a critical role in understanding the atmospheric dynamics and climate change. However, because of the limitation of traditional detecting methods, the measurements of the upper stratosphere and mesosphere are rare. In this study, a new method is developed to construct a high-resolution temperature dataset over China in the middle atmosphere based on the XGBoost technique. The model’s performance is also validated based on rocket observations and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results indicate that the model effectively captures the characteristics of the vertical and seasonal variations in temperature, which provide a valuable opportunity for further research and improvement of climate models. The model demonstrates the highest accuracy below 80 km with RMSE < 12 K, while its performance decreases above 100 km, where RMSE can exceed 20 K, indicating optimal performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere regions. Full article

Predicting the behaviour of the Earth’s ionosphere is crucial for the ground-based and spaceborne technologies that rely on it. This paper presents a novel way of inferring ionospheric electron density profiles and electron temperature profiles using machine learning. The analysis is based on the Nearest Neighbour (NNB) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) regression models. Synthetic data sets used to train and validate these two inference models are constructed using the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2020) model with randomly chosen years (1987–2022), months (1–12), days (1–31), latitudes (−60 to 60°), longitudes (0, 360°), and times (0–23 h), at altitudes ranging from 95 to 600 km. The NNB and RBF models use the constructed ionosonde-like profiles to infer complete ISR-like profiles. The results show that the inference of ionospheric electron density profiles is better with the NNB model than with the RBF model, while the RBF model is better at inferring the electron temperature profiles. A major and unexpected finding of this research is the ability of the two models to infer full electron temperature profiles that are not provided by ionosondes using the same truncated electron density data set used to infer electron density profiles. NNB and RBF models generally over- or underestimate the inferred electron density and electron temperature values, especially at higher altitudes, but they tend to produce good matches at lower altitudes. Additionally, maximum absolute relative errors for electron density and temperature inferences are found at higher altitudes for both NNB and RBF models. Full article

Predicting global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is critical for high-precision GNSS applications, but some existing models fail to jointly capture spatial heterogeneity and multiscale temporal trends. To address the problem, this work proposes a spatio-temporal graph neural network (STGNN) that addresses these limitations through (1) a trainable positional attention mechanism to dynamically infer node dependencies without fixed geographical constraints and (2) a GRU–Transformer sequential module to hierarchically model local and global temporal patterns. The proposed network is validated by different solar and geomagnetic activities. With a training dataset with a time span between 2008 and 2018, the proposed model is tested in a high solar phase for the year 2015 and a low solar phase for the year 2018. For 2015, the experimental results show a 21.9% RMSE reduction at low latitudes compared to the results of the iTransformer model. For the geomagnetic storm event, the proposed STGNN achieves 16.0% higher stability. For the one-week (84 step) prediction test, the STGNN shows a 27.0% lower error compared to the MLPMultivariate model. The model’s self-adaptive spatial learning and multiscale temporal modeling uniquely enable TEC forecasting under diverse geophysical conditions. Full article

Ensuring Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) integrity, which provides operational reliability via fault detection, is important for safety-critical applications using high-precision techniques like Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and Real-Time Kinematic (RTK). Ionospheric errors, from atmospheric free electrons, challenge this integrity by introducing variable uncertainties into positioning solutions. This study investigates how ionospheric error modeling spatial resolution impacts protection level (PL) calculations, a metric defining positioning error bounds with high confidence. A comparative evaluation was conducted in low-latitude (Guangdong) and mid-latitude (Shandong) regions, contrasting large-scale with small-scale grid-based ionospheric models from regional GNSS networks. Experimental results show small-scale grids improve characterization of localized ionospheric variability, reducing ionospheric residual standard deviation by approximately 30% and enhancing PL precision. Large-scale grids show limitations, especially in active low-latitude conditions, leading to conservative PLs that reduce system availability and increase missed fault detection risks. A user-side PL computation framework incorporating this high-resolution ionospheric residual uncertainty improved system availability to 94.7% and lowered misleading and hazardous outcomes by over 80%. This research indicates that refined, high-resolution ionospheric modeling improves operational reliability and safety for high-integrity GNSS applications, particularly under diverse and challenging ionospheric conditions. Full article

Using Schumann resonance (SR) records from the Antarctic, we evaluate the impact of the solar activity on the global ionosphere over the period from 2002 to 2024. The updated vertical profile of the middle atmosphere conductivity is applied. The pivoted upper part of profiles above the knee altitude is adjusted to represent different levels of solar activity. The electric (lower) h_C and the magnetic (upper) h_L characteristic heights, the propagation constant ν(f) of the extremely low frequency (ELF) radio waves, and the basic resonance frequency f₁ are computed for the profiles corresponding to the solar maximum, moderate, and minimum activity conditions by using the full-wave solution in the form of the Riccati differential equation. Model data are compared with experimental observations at the Ukrainian Antarctic Station of “Akademik Vernadsky” (geographic coordinates: 65.25° S and 64.25° W). The following results are discussed: (i) Solar activity modifies the upper characteristic height h_L of the ionosphere by ±1 km over the 11-year cycle; (ii) Equations were obtained linking the current level of solar activity with the basic SR frequency, with the magnetic characteristic height, and with the ELF propagation constant; (iii) Based on SR monitoring within two complete solar cycles, a practical rule is proposed: an increase in the index of solar activity I_10.7 by ~150 units raises the first SR frequency by ~0.1 Hz and elevates the magnetic characteristic height by ~2.5 km. Full article

Real-time ionospheric products can accelerate the convergence of real-time precise point positioning (PPP) to improve the real-time positioning services of global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), as well as to achieve continuous monitoring of the ionosphere. This study applied an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to total electron content (TEC) modeling, proposing a regional real-time EKF-based ionospheric model (REIM) with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° and a temporal resolution of 1 h. We examined the performance of REIM through a 7-day period during geomagnetic storms. The post-processing model from the China Earthquake Administration (IOSR), CODG, IGSG, and the BDS geostationary orbit satellite (GEO) observations were utilized as reference. The consistency analysis showed that the mean deviation between REIM and IOSR was 0.97 TECU, with correlation coefficients of 0.936 and 0.938 relative to IOSR and IGSG, respectively. The VTEC mean deviation between REIM and BDS GEO observations was 4.15 TECU, which is lower than those of CODG (4.68 TECU), IGSG (5.67 TECU), and IOSR (6.27 TECU). In the real-time single-frequency PPP (RT-SF-PPP) experiments, REIM-augmented positioning converges within approximately 80 epochs, and IGSG requires 140 epochs. The REIM-augmented east-direction positioning error was 0.086 m, smaller than that of IGSG (0.095 m) and the Klobuchar model (0.098 m). REIM demonstrated high consistencies with post-processing models and showed a higher accuracy at IPPs of BDS GEO satellites. Moreover, the correction results of the REIM model are comparable to post-processing models in RT-SF-PPP while achieving faster convergence. Full article

On 1 December 2023, a strong geomagnetic storm was triggered by an interplanetary shock caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME). This study used data from 193 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observation stations in China to study the three-dimensional morphological total electron content (TEC) disturbances during this storm. By analyzing GNSS TEC data from 15 GNSS stations along the magnetic field lines, it was found that TEC disturbances spread from low to high latitudes, confirmed by ionosonde NmF2 data. The TEC disturbance first appeared at the LJHP station, (21.68° N) at 11:30 UT and propagated to the BJFS station (39.60° N) at 13:30 UT with a propagation speed of about 217 m/s and maximum amplitude of ±0.2 m. The TEC disturbance lasted the longest, approximately 4 h, between latitudes 25° N and 32° N. Additionally, this study investigated the ionosphere’s three-dimensional electron density distribution in the Guangxi region using an ionospheric tomography algorithm. Results showed that the TEC disturbances were mainly concentrated between 450 and 580 km in altitude. At 12:00 UT, the maximum change in electron density occurred at a 580 km height at 26° N, 112° E, increasing by 20.54 total electron content unit (TECU). During the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, the electron density expanded from higher to lower layers, while during the recovery phase, it recovered from the lower layers to the higher layers. Full article

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) are a manifestation of space weather events at ground level. GICs have the potential to cause power failures in electric grids. The GIC index is a proxy of the ground geoelectric field derived solely from geomagnetic field data. Information theory can be used to shed light on the dynamics of complex systems, such as the coupled solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere–ground system. We performed block entropy analysis of the GIC activity indices at middle-latitude European observatories around the St. Patrick’s Day March 2015 intense magnetic storm and Mother’s Day (or Gannon) May 2024 superintense storm. We found that the GIC index values were generally higher for the May 2024 storm, indicating elevated risk levels. Furthermore, the entropy values of the SYM-H and GIC indices were higher in the time interval before the storms than during the storms, indicating transition from a system with lower organization to one with higher organization. These findings, including the temporal dynamics of the entropy and GIC indices, highlight the potential of this method to reveal pre-storm susceptibility and relaxation processes. This study not only adds to the knowledge of geomagnetic disturbances but also provides valuable practical implications for space weather forecasting and geospatial risk assessment. Full article

The present study examines the negative ionospheric response over Europe during two geomagnetic storms on 10–13 May 2024, known as the Mother’s Day geomagnetic superstorm. The first storm, with a peak SYM-H value of −436 nT, occurred in the interval 10–11 May, while the second, less intense storm (SYM-H~−103 nT), followed in the interval 12–13 May. Using data from four European locations, temporal and spatial variations in ionospheric parameters (TEC, foF2, and hmF2) were analyzed to investigate the morphology of the strong negative response. Sharp electron density (Ne) depletion is associated with the equatorward displacement of the Midlatitude Ionospheric Trough (MIT), confirmed by Swarm satellite data. A key finding was the absence of foF2 and hmF2 values over all ionosonde stations during the recovery phase of the storms, likely due to the coupling between the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) crests and the auroral ionosphere influenced by the intense uplift of the F layer. Relevant distinct features such as Large-scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance (LSTID) signatures and Spread F were also noted, particularly during the initial and main phase of the first storm over high midlatitude regions. Regional effects varied, with high European midlatitudes exhibiting different features compared to lower European latitude areas. Full article

The thermospheric density response during geomagnetic storms has been extensively explored, but with limited studies on the density response in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region. In this study, the density response in the MLT region at mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the intense geomagnetic storm in May 2024 is investigated using density data from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument aboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. The results indicate that during the geomagnetic storm, the density response exhibits both significant decreases and increases; specifically, approximately 25.2% of the observation points show a notable reduction within a single day, with the maximum decrease exceeding −59.9% at 105 km. In contrast, around 16.5% of the observation points experience a significant increase over the same period, with the maximum increase surpassing 82.4% at 105 km. The distribution of density changes varies with altitudes. The magnitude of density increases diminishes with decreasing altitude, whereas the density decreases exhibit altitude-dependent intensity variations. Density decreases are primarily concentrated in high-latitude regions, especially in the polar cap, while density increases are mainly observed between 50°N and 70°N. The intensity of density response is generally stronger in the dusk sector than in the dawn sector. These results suggest that atmospheric expansion and uplift driven by temperature variations are the primary factors underlying the observed density change. Full article

This study investigated the correlations between field-aligned currents (FACs), polar electrojets (PEJs), and external solar and geomagnetic activity parameters during the intense geomagnetic storm that occurred from 10 to 12 October 2024. Notably, the merging electric field (Em) had a greater impact on FACs and PEJs compared to the May 2024 storm, while the influence of solar wind pressure (Pd) was equally important in both storms. The peak FAC densities in the northern dawn (southern dusk) and nighttime sectors correlate strongly with Em, whereas Pd dominates in the northern dusk (southern dawn) and daytime sectors. For PEJs, Em correlates strongly with current densities in the northern dawn–dusk and southern nighttime sectors, while Pd is the primary correlated parameter on the dayside. FAC (PEJ) latitudes are most strongly influenced by Em (Pd or Dst) on the dawnside–duskside. Additionally, FACs and PEJs are mostly more intense on the dawnside than on the duskside and extend to lower latitudes at dusk than at dawn. Analysis of the May and October 2024 storms reveals that FACs in the summer hemisphere are generally stronger and situated at more poleward latitudes than those in the winter hemisphere. This pattern is largely driven by summer–winter variations in ionospheric conductivity, with some differences also arising from the asymmetric magnetic field geometry between the two hemispheres. Full article