Search Results (604)

Accurate traffic flow forecasting is a fundamental component of Intelligent Transportation Systems and proactive urban mobility management. However, the inherent complexity of urban traffic flow, characterized by non-stationary dynamics and multi-scale temporal dependencies, poses significant modeling challenges. Existing spatio-temporal models often struggle to reconcile the discrepancy between static physical road constraints and highly dynamic, state-dependent spatial correlations, while their reliance on fixed temporal receptive fields limits the capacity to disentangle overlapping periodicities and stochastic fluctuations. To bridge these gaps, this study proposes a novel Multi-scale Graph-Decoupling Spatial–temporal Network (MS-GSTN). MS-GSTN leverages a Hierarchical Moving Average decomposition module to recursively partition raw traffic flow signals into constituent patterns across diverse temporal resolutions, ranging from systemic daily trends to high-frequency transients. Subsequently, a Tri-graph Spatio-temporal Fusion module synergistically models scale-specific dependencies by integrating an adaptive temporal graph, a static spatial graph, and a data-driven dynamic spatial graph within a unified architecture. Extensive experiments on four large-scale real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that MS-GSTN consistently achieves superior forecasting accuracy compared to representative state-of-the-art models. Quantitatively, the proposed framework yields an overall reduction in Mean Absolute Error of up to 6.2% and maintains enhanced stability across multiple forecasting horizons. Visualization analysis further confirms that MS-GSTN effectively identifies scale-dependent spatial couplings, revealing that long-term traffic flow trends propagate through global network connectivity while short-term variations are governed by localized interactions. Full article

Improving the accuracy of climate and long-range meteorological forecasts is an important objective for many economic sectors: agriculture, energy and utilities, transportation and logistics, construction, disaster risk management, insurance and finance, retail, tourism and leisure. Traditional physical models face limitations at ultra-long lead times, which motivates the development of empirical–statistical approaches, including those leveraging deep learning techniques. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data and archives of major climate indices for the period 1950–2024, we examine statistical relationships between climate indices associated with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and surface air temperature anomalies in selected mid- and high-latitude regions. The aim is to assess the predictive skill of these indices for seasonal temperature anomalies within empirical forecasting frameworks. To this end, we employ cross-correlation and cross-spectral analyses, as well as regression modeling. Our findings indicate that the choice of the most informative predictors strongly depends on the target region and season. Among the major indices, AMO and EA/WR emerge as the most informative for forecasting purposes. The Niño 4 and IOD indices can be considered useful predictors for the Eastern Arctic. Notably, the strongest correlations between the AMO, EA/WR, Niño 4, and IOD indices and surface air temperature occur at one- to two-year lags. To illustrate the predictive potential of the four selected indices, several multiple regression models were developed. The results obtained from these models confirm that the chosen set of indices effectively captures the main sources of variability relevant to seasonal and interannual temperature prediction across the analyzed regions. In particular, approximately 64% of the forecasts have errors less than 0.674 times the standard deviation. Full article

Constructing a temperature and humidity prediction model for greenhouse-grown tomatoes is of great significance for achieving resource-efficient and sustainable greenhouse environmental control and promoting healthy tomato growth. However, traditional models often struggle to simultaneously capture long-term temporal trends, short-term local dynamic variations, and the coupling relationships among multiple variables. To address these issues, this study develops an iT-LSTM-CA multi-step prediction model, in which the inverted Transformer (iTransformer, iT) is employed to capture global dependencies across variables and long temporal scales, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is utilized to extract short-term local variation patterns, and a cross-attention (CA) mechanism is introduced to dynamically fuse the two types of features. Experimental results show that, compared with models such as Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), the iT-LSTM-CA achieves the best performance in multi-step forecasting tasks at 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h horizons. For temperature prediction, the R² ranges from 0.96 to 0.98, with MAE between 0.42 °C and 0.79 °C and RMSE between 0.58 °C and 1.06 °C; for humidity prediction, the R² ranges from 0.95 to 0.97, with MAE between 1.21% and 2.49% and RMSE between 1.78% and 3.42%. These results indicate that the iT-LSTM-CA model can effectively capture greenhouse environmental variations and provide a scientific basis for environmental control and management in tomato greenhouses. Full article

To improve the accuracy of cable temperature anomaly prediction and ensure the reliability of urban distribution networks, this paper proposes a multi-scale spatiotemporal model called MSST-Net (MSST-Net) for medium-voltage power cables in underground utility tunnels. The model addresses the multi-scale temporal dynamics and spatial correlations inherent in cable thermal behavior. Based on the monthly periodicity of cable temperature data, we preprocessed monitoring data from the KN1 and KN2 sections (medium-voltage power cable segments) of Guangzhou’s underground utility tunnel from 2023 to 2024, using the Isolation Forest algorithm to remove outliers, applying Min-Max normalization to eliminate dimensional differences, and selecting five key features including current load, voltage, and ambient temperature using Spearman’s correlation coefficient. Subsequently, we designed a multi-scale dilated causal convolutional module (DC-CNN) to capture local features, combined with a spatiotemporal dual-path Transformer to model long-range dependencies, and introduced relative position encoding to enhance temporal perception. The Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) was employed for global optimization of hyperparameters. Compared with five other mainstream algorithms, MSST-Net demonstrated higher accuracy in cable temperature prediction for power cables in the KN1 and KN2 sections of Guangzhou’s underground utility tunnel, achieving a coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.942, 0.442 °C, and 0.596 °C, respectively. Compared to the basic Transformer model, the root mean square error of cable temperature was reduced by 0.425 °C. This model exhibits high accuracy in time series prediction and provides a reference for accurate short- and medium-term temperature forecasting of medium-voltage power cables in urban underground utility tunnels. Full article

East Africa’s March–April–May (MAM) rainfall exhibits pronounced variability that strongly influences agriculture, water security, and livelihoods. This study analyzes consecutive wet day (CWD) events using CHIRPS precipitation, GridSat infrared cold-cloud brightness temperature, and ERA5 reanalysis for 1982–2023 to examine rainfall variability and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and convection. CWDs are classified into short (3–5 days), medium (6–10 days), and long (>10 days) events. Results reveal three regional activity centers: the Eastern Congo Basin, Lake Victoria, and Southwest Ethiopia. The Congo Basin emerges as the most convectively active region, sustaining frequent events across all categories and supporting long-duration rainfall through persistent moisture flow and mesoscale convection. On average, CWDs contribute 43% of total MAM rainfall across East Africa, ranging from negligible amounts in arid areas to over 90% in equatorial regions. Short-duration events dominate the seasonal total, while long-duration events, though spatially restricted, contribute up to 52% locally. Composite convection analysis shows a transition from widespread moderate activity during short events to highly localized, intense convection in long events, particularly over the equatorial Congo and Lake Victoria regions. These findings highlight the critical contribution of organized synoptic-scale systems to East Africa’s hydrological cycle, which will have implications for improving sub-seasonal rainfall forecasts. Full article

Volatility in the modern world and electricity Day-Ahead Markets (DAMs) usually makes long-term historical data irrelevant or even detrimental for accurate forecasting. This study directly addresses this challenge by proposing a novel forecasting paradigm centered on extremely short training windows, ranging from 7 to 90 days, to maximize responsiveness to recent market dynamics. This volatility-driven approach intentionally creates a data-scarce environment where the suitability of deep learning models is limited. Building on the hypothesis that shallow machine learning models, and more specifically boosting trees, are better adapted to this reality, we evaluate four models, namely LSTM with feed-forward error correction, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, across three European energy markets (Greece, Belgium, Ireland) using feature sets derived from ENTSO-E forecast data. Results consistently demonstrate that LightGBM provides superior forecasting accuracy and robustness, particularly when trained on 45–60 day windows, which strike an optimal balance between temporal relevance and learning depth. Furthermore, a stronger capability in detecting seasonal effects and peak price events is exhibited. These findings validate that a short-window training strategy, combined with computationally efficient shallow models, is a highly effective and practical approach for navigating the volatility and data constraints of modern DAM forecasting. Full article

Accurate short-term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) output is critical to managing the variability of PV generation and ensuring reliable grid operation with high renewable integration. We propose an enhanced hybrid deep learning framework that combines Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Random Forests (RFs) in an optimized weighted ensemble strategy. This approach leverages the complementary strengths of each component: TCNs capture long-range temporal dependencies via dilated causal convolutions; GRUs model sequential weather-driven dynamics; and RFs enhance robustness to outliers and nonlinear relationships. The model was evaluated on high-resolution operational data from the Yulara solar plant in Australia, forecasting horizons from 5 min to 1 h. Results show that the TCN-GRU-RF model consistently outperforms conventional benchmarks, achieving R² = 0.9807 (MAE = 0.0136; RMSE = 0.0300) at 5 min and R² = 0.9047 (RMSE = 0.0652) at 1 h horizons. Notably, the degradation in R² across forecasting horizons was limited to 7.7%, significantly lower than the typical 10–15% range observed in the literature, highlighting the model’s scalability and resilience. These validated results indicate that the proposed approach provides a robust, scalable forecasting solution that enhances grid reliability and supports the integration of distributed renewable energy sources. Full article

This paper presents a prototype of an autonomous hydrochemical monitoring system developed for large freshwater aquaculture facilities, directly addressing the need for smart monitoring in Agriculture 4.0. The proposed solution employs low-power sensor nodes based on commercially available components and long-range LoRaWAN communication to achieve continuous, scalable, and energy-efficient water quality monitoring. Each sensor module performs on-board signal preprocessing, including anomaly detection and short-term forecasting of key hydrochemical parameters. An ecological pond dynamics model incorporating an Extended Kalman Filter is used to fuse heterogeneous sensor data with predictive estimates, thus increasing measurement reliability. High-level data analysis, long-term storage, and cross-site comparison are performed on the server side. This integration enables adaptive tracking of environmental variations, supports early detection of hazardous trends associated with fish mortality risks, and allows one to explain and justify the reasoning behind every recommended corrective action. The performance of the forecasting and filtering algorithms is evaluated, and key system characteristics—including measurement accuracy, power consumption, and scalability—are discussed. Preliminary tests of the system prototype have shown that it can predict the dissolved oxygen level with $RMSE$ = 0.104 mg/L even with a minimum set of sensors. The results demonstrate that the proposed conceptual design of the system can be used as a base for real-time monitoring and predictive assessment of hydrochemical conditions in aquaculture environments. Full article

Current transformer measurement errors exhibit strong non-stationarity and multi-scale temporal dynamics, which make accurate prediction challenging for conventional deep learning models. This paper presents a hybrid signal processing and temporal learning framework that integrates ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with a dual-scale temporal convolutional architecture. EEMD adaptively decomposes the error sequence into intrinsic mode functions, while a Pearson correlation-based selection step removes redundant and noise-dominated components. The refined signal is then processed by a dual-scale temporal convolutional network (TCN) designed with parallel dilated kernels to capture both high-frequency transients and long-range drift patterns. Experimental evaluations on 110 kV substation data confirm that the proposed decomposition-enhanced dual-scale temporal convolutional framework significantly improves generalization and robustness, reducing the root mean square error by 40.9% and the mean absolute error by 37.0% compared with benchmark models. The results demonstrate that combining decomposition-based preprocessing with multi-scale temporal learning effectively enhances the accuracy and stability of non-stationary current transformer error forecasting. Full article

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in a wide range of applications, including energy load forecasting, traffic flow management, weather prediction, and vision-based state prediction for autonomous driving. In the context of autonomous vehicles, accurate forecasting of sequential visual information—such as traffic participant trajectories, road condition variations, and obstacle motion trends perceived by onboard sensors—is a fundamental prerequisite for safe and reliable decision-making. To overcome the limitations of existing long-term time series forecasting models, particularly their insufficient capability in temporal feature extraction, this paper proposes a Local–Global Adaptive Transformer (LGAT) for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed model incorporates three key innovations: (1) a period-aware positional encoding mechanism that embeds intrinsic periodic patterns of time series into positional representations and adaptively adjusts encoding parameters according to data-specific periodicity; (2) a temporal feature enhancement module based on gated convolution, which effectively suppresses noise in raw inputs while emphasizing discriminative temporal characteristics; and (3) a local–global adaptive attention layer that combines sliding window–based local attention with importance-aware global attention to simultaneously capture short-term local variations and long-term global dependencies. Experimental results on five public benchmark datasets demonstrate that LGAT consistently outperforms most baseline models, indicating its strong potential for time series forecasting applications in autonomous driving scenarios. Full article

Global climate change demands modeling approaches that are both computationally efficient and physically faithful to the system’s long-term dynamics. Classical Energy Balance Models (EBMs), while valuable, are fundamentally limited by their memoryless exponential response, which fails to represent the prolonged thermal inertia of the climate system—particularly that associated with deep-ocean heat uptake. In this study, we introduce a fractional Energy Balance Model (fEBM) by replacing the classical integer-order time derivative with a Caputo fractional derivative of order $\alpha (0<\alpha \le 1)$, thereby embedding long-range memory directly into the model structure. We establish a rigorous mathematical foundation for the fEBM, including proofs of existence, uniqueness, and asymptotic stability, ensuring theoretical well-posedness and numerical reliability. The model is calibrated and validated against historical global mean surface temperature data from NASA GISTEMP and radiative forcing estimates from IPCC AR6. Relative to the classical EBM, the fEBM achieves a substantially improved representation of observed temperatures, reducing the root mean square error by approximately 29% during calibration (1880–2010) and by 47% in out-of-sample forecasting (2011–2023). The optimized fractional order $\alpha =0.75\pm 0.03$ emerges as a physically interpretable measure of aggregate climate memory, consistent with multi-decadal ocean heat uptake and observed persistence in temperature anomalies. Residual diagnostics and robustness analyses further demonstrate that the fractional formulation captures dominant temporal dependencies without overfitting. By integrating mathematical rigor, uncertainty quantification, and physical interpretability, this work positions fractional calculus as a powerful and responsible framework for reduced-order climate modeling and long-term projection analysis. Full article

Accurate multi-node energy market forecasting is critical for secure and economic grid operation under increasing penetration of renewable energy and electric vehicles. This paper proposes a physics-aware spatiotemporal forecasting framework that integrates Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) for modeling network-level spatial dependencies with a self-attention mechanism for capturing long-range temporal correlations. Unlike existing GCN + RNN or attention-based forecasting approaches, physical feasibility is enforced during learning through structured penalty terms reflecting power balance, generation limits, EV state-of-charge dynamics, and AC load flow constraints, rather than via post-processing optimization. The model is evaluated on a synthetic IEEE 24-bus benchmark with realistic load scaling, renewable variability, and EV charging profiles. Results show a mean squared error of 1.84 MW² and a 7–10% reduction in forecasting error relative to baseline ARIMA and LSTM models, while maintaining constraint violation rates below 5%. Multi-step forecasting experiments demonstrate stable error growth under high volatility conditions. The proposed framework establishes a bridge between purely data-driven forecasting and physically consistent grid-aware prediction, offering a scalable foundation for operationally feasible energy market forecasting. Full article

Vector-borne diseases are strongly influenced by climate, yet the magnitude and temporal variability of climate–disease relationships remain poorly quantified. Outbreaks occur abruptly, and responses are typically delayed, underscoring the need for predictive tools that can support proactive interventions. This study applies Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) to long-term, high-resolution climate datasets and to weekly malaria and dengue case records from South Africa and Vietnam to assess predictive performance and identify key environmental drivers. The models incorporated diverse climatic predictors and large-scale climate indices and were trained using multi-horizon forecasting with novel loss functions and physics-based constraints. The best malaria model achieved an R² of 0.95 and an MAE of 4.98, while leading dengue models reached R² values up to 0.90. Variable-importance analyses derived from model-learned weights showed that extreme temperature and rainfall metrics were consistently the strongest predictors, with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) improving longer-range malaria forecasts. Furthermore, climate–disease risk dynamics were explored, revealing specific temperature and rainfall thresholds associated with elevated transmission and highlighting non-stationary relationships across decades. These findings demonstrate accurate, interpretable forecasting offered by TFTs and represent a valuable tool for early warning and understanding of complex climate–disease interactions. Full article

Accurate multivariate traffic flow forecasting is critical for intelligent transportation systems yet remains challenging due to the complex interplay of temporal dynamics and spatial interactions. While Transformer-based models have shown promise in capturing long-range temporal dependencies, most existing approaches compress multidimensional observations into flattened sequences—thereby neglecting explicit modeling of cross-dimensional (i.e., spatial or inter-variable) relationships, which are essential for capturing traffic propagation, network-wide congestion, and node-specific behaviors. To address this limitation, we propose TSAformer, a novel Transformer architecture that explicitly preserves and jointly models time and dimension as dual structural axes. TSAformer begins with a multimodal input embedding layer that encodes raw traffic values alongside temporal context (time-of-day and day-of-week) and node-specific positional features, ensuring rich semantic representation. The core of TSAformer is the Two-Stage Attention (TSA) module, which first models intra-dimensional temporal evolution via time-axis self-attention then captures inter-dimensional spatial interactions through a lightweight routing mechanism—avoiding quadratic complexity while enabling all-to-all cross-node communication. Built upon TSA, a hierarchical encoder–decoder (HED) structure further enhances forecasting by modeling traffic patterns across multiple temporal scales, from fine-grained fluctuations to macroscopic trends, and fusing predictions via cross-scale attention. Extensive experiments on three real-world traffic datasets—including urban road networks and highway systems—demonstrate that TSAformer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across short-term and long-term forecasting horizons. Notably, it achieves top-ranked performance in 36 out of 58 critical evaluation scenarios, including peak-hour and event-driven congestion prediction. By explicitly modeling both temporal and dimensional dependencies without structural compromise, TSAformer provides a scalable, interpretable, and high-performance solution for spatiotemporal traffic forecasting. Full article

One major factor influencing the development of eco-friendly policies and the implementation of climate change mitigation strategies is the accurate projection of CO₂ emissions. Traditional statistical models face significant limitations in capturing complex nonlinear interactions within high-dimensional emissions data. Advanced deep learning architectures offer new opportunities to overcome these computational challenges due to their strong pattern-recognition capabilities. This paper evaluates four distinct deep learning architectures for CO₂ emissions forecasting: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), Hybrid Convolutional–LSTM (CNN–LSTM) systems, and Dense Neural Networks (DNNs). A comprehensive comparison is conducted using consistent training protocols, hyperparameters, and performance metrics across five prediction horizons (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 steps ahead) to reveal architecture-specific degradation patterns. Furthermore, analyzing emissions by category provides insight into the suitability of each architecture for varying levels of pattern complexity. LSTM-based models demonstrate particular strength in modeling long-term temporal dependencies, making them well-suited for integration into long-range environmental policy planning frameworks. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence supporting the use of neural networks in climate modeling and proposes criteria for selecting optimal architectures based on forecasting horizon and computational constraints. Full article