Search Results (165)

The cumulative displacement of landslides in alpine regions is jointly affected by rainfall, temperature variation, freeze–thaw cycles, and other factors, and usually exhibits nonlinear, non-stationary, and multi-scale fluctuation characteristics. To improve the accuracy of landslide displacement prediction under complex environmental conditions, this study takes the Taker Tubek Village landslide in Gongliu County, Xinjiang, China, as the study object. Cumulative displacement data from GNSS02 and GNSS03, together with daily rainfall and daily mean temperature, were used to construct a SOO-VMD-CNN-TimeXer hybrid prediction model. First, SOO was employed to adaptively optimize the VMD parameters, and the cumulative displacement series were decomposed into multiple IMF components. Then, CNN was used to extract local fluctuation features, while TimeXer was applied to model long-term temporal dependencies and the effects of exogenous variables. Finally, the predicted results of all components were reconstructed to obtain the cumulative displacement prediction. The results show that the proposed model achieved high prediction accuracy at both GNSS02 and GNSS03. The MSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² values were 0.0158, 0.0960, 0.0112, and 0.9464 for GNSS02, and 0.0483, 0.1590, 0.0203, and 0.9946 for GNSS03, respectively, outperforming LSTM, Informer, iTransformer, Crossformer, and other models. The results indicate that the SOO-VMD-CNN-TimeXer model can effectively characterize the cumulative displacement evolution of landslides in alpine regions and provide technical support for landslide deformation trend forecasting and disaster early warning. Full article

Analytical solutions serve as primary benchmarks for verifying model test design, provide rapid predictive tools for preliminary design, and offer fundamental physical understanding of complex structure interaction problems of the geological body. It is essential for ensuring the reliability of experimental results. For the study on slope stability under earthquakes, the seismic behavior of key inclined cracks in the slope is a hot topic, which is a crucial issue in rock mechanics and engineering geomechanics. This paper studies the dynamic propagation of the inclined crack under seismic conditions, proposes the analytical solution of fracture mechanics, and conducts a centrifuge shaking table test accordingly for monitoring and validation. The analytical solution results have been validated experimentally by a centrifuge shaking table test on the seismic behavior of an inclined crack. Results indicate that the amplitude of seismic waves significantly affects crack propagation: the greater the amplitude, the faster the propagation rate. Analysis of crack propagation and maximum surface displacement reveals hysteresis and sudden jumps of surface deformation caused by rock mass structure and locked segments, both in indoor tests and in strong earthquake regions. This paper combines a theoretical and experimental monitoring study, providing a good example of integrating analytical solutions and modeling validation for research on earthquake-induced landslide disasters. Full article

Predicting landslide displacement is important for geological-hazard early warning. In reservoir areas, displacement evolution is affected by rainfall, reservoir water level, vegetation variation, and the intrinsic non-stationarity of the displacement sequence, which makes accurate prediction difficult for conventional single-sequence models. To address this problem, this study proposes a residual-increment-oriented landslide displacement prediction framework that fuses multi-source monitoring variables. The displacement sequence is first processed into trend and periodic-related fluctuation representations, and the residual increment is used as the prediction target. Rainfall, reservoir water level, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are incorporated as external monitoring variables. A cross-branch attention mechanism models interactions among heterogeneous feature branches, and a sparse MoE-based fusion module is introduced to adaptively adjust branch contributions under different deformation conditions. The model predicts the displacement residual increment, from which the final displacement is reconstructed. A case study using the Baishui River (Baishuihe) landslide monitoring dataset was conducted, together with additional validation on the related Bazimen Z110 landslide monitoring dataset and comparisons against conventional recurrent, convolutional, statistical, and Transformer-based baselines. The results show that the proposed model achieves lower RMSE and MAE than the compared methods on the tested datasets. These findings suggest that residual-increment modeling, multi-source monitoring variables, and condition-dependent branch fusion can improve short-term displacement prediction for the tested reservoir-area landslide cases. Full article

Current landslide displacement prediction models often suffer from insufficient integration between physical mechanisms and data-driven approaches, weak model generalizability, and limited operational applicability. To address these issues, this study develops a physics-informed online learning framework for landslide displacement prediction. The core of this framework is a Physics-informed Long Short-Term Memory network (Phys-LSTM). By embedding discretized forms of the stress balance, creep constitutive, and kinematic equations as hard constraints into the LSTM’s gating mechanisms and loss function, the model ensures physically consistent predictions and enhanced interpretability throughout the learning process. Leveraging real-time data streams from the Sichuan Provincial Geological Hazard Monitoring and Warning Platform, we developed an online processing pipeline for real-time multi-source data ingestion, automated quality control, spatiotemporal alignment, and physics-informed feature engineering. A progressive three-stage learning algorithm was designed to support model cold-start, incremental training, and rolling prediction. Validation across 45 model-development landslide sites and one independent application case demonstrated the framework’s significant superiority over traditional models in displacement prediction accuracy (RMSE ≤ 1.78 mm, R² ≥ 0.96), cross-site generalization stability, and its capability to capture accelerated deformation phases. This research indicates that deeply integrating geomechanical prior knowledge into an online learning framework can effectively improve the reliability, interpretability, and operational applicability of landslide displacement prediction models, thereby providing methodological support for subsequent landslide early warning applications. Full article

Accurate prediction of slope displacement from high-frequency GNSS monitoring data is critical for early warning of landslides and tailings dam failures. However, existing deep learning approaches often neglect the spatial coordination imposed by geological structures and fail to decouple abrupt deformation signals from background noise, leading to non-physical oscillations and inconsistent long-term predictions. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a Symmetry-Aware Physics-Guided Spatio-Temporal Graph Network (PG-STGN). First, a geological hierarchy-aware graph is constructed by integrating geometric proximity with prior knowledge of exploration levels, where the resulting adjacency matrix is symmetric by design and reflects the physical symmetry of deformation interactions among monitoring points at the same elevation. A hierarchical masking mechanism restricts feature aggregation to physically connected neighborhoods while preserving this symmetry. Second, an improved dual-path temporal convolutional network (iTCN) decouples high-frequency abrupt variations from low-frequency evolutionary trends, enabling both sensitive detection of sudden deformation and stable tracking of long-term creep. Third, a physics-consistent loss function combining first-order temporal differencing and graph Laplacian regularization enforces kinematic smoothness and spatial coordination; the Laplacian itself is derived from the symmetric adjacency matrix, ensuring symmetric regularization across the monitoring network. Evaluated on a real-world slope GNSS dataset from a large-scale mining project, PG-STGN reduces mean squared error (MSE) by approximately 23.7% and achieves a global R² of 0.924, outperforming state-of-the-art spatio-temporal models. Ablation studies confirm that the symmetric physics-guided graph, dual-path decoupling, and consistency loss are each essential for suppressing spurious correlations and maintaining physically plausible predictions. The proposed framework provides a robust, interpretable, and symmetry-constrained solution for automated slope monitoring under complex geological conditions. Full article

Accurate time series forecasting is fundamental to geohazard early warning, yet remains a major challenge. Conventional in situ geotechnical monitoring remains costly and spatially constrained, whereas deep learning applied to remote sensing data has become increasingly prevalent but often suffers from opacity of model decision-making. To address this issue, we propose a Transformer-based forecasting framework, namely PatchTST-Fusion, adapted for multivariate Multi-Temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (MT-InSAR) time series. The framework integrates model interpretability analysis through TimeSHAP, providing temporal and feature-level attributions across the input sequence. Landslide deformation time series are first derived from Copernicus Sentinel-1 SAR data. Variational Mode Decomposition is then applied to decompose the non-linear signals into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The denoised displacement series are modeled and forecast using the proposed PatchTST-Fusion, which incorporates rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations as feature-level drivers. Application to the Daping landslide cluster in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China demonstrates that our method captures both the long-term and transient non-linear coupling between deformation and its triggers, surpassing state-of-the-art models including CNN-BiGRU-Attention, Informer and original PatchTST with 7–55% improvements in MAE and 10–52% improvements in RMSE. Beyond predictive gains, feature attribution of environmental triggers via TimeSHAP reveals that rainfall and reservoir regulation exert temporally distinct influences on slope kinematics, with high relative importance concentrated in specific periods and characteristic lagged responses. This interpretable framework provides both enhanced forecasting accuracy and process-based insights, offering a broadly applicable tool for landslide early warning in reservoir regions. Full article

Highway slope instability under coupled traffic and environmental loading poses critical threats to transportation safety in mountainous regions, where dynamic vehicular forces interact with complex geological conditions in ways that single-modality monitoring cannot fully resolve. This study proposes MMDF-DEWS, a multi-modal data fusion and deep learning-based early-warning system that, for the first time, treats quantified traffic-loading parameters as a first-class input modality alongside Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) displacement, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, and embedded geotechnical sensor outputs. A hybrid Transformer–bidirectional LSTM backbone with hierarchical attention-guided fusion enables the model to capture both long-range temporal deformation trends and short-term dynamic responses triggered by heavy-vehicle passage. To guard against over-fitting on a limited number of instability events, we adopt chronological training/validation/test partitioning, five-fold cross-validation for hyper-parameter selection, stratified focal-loss training, and cross-dataset evaluation on two independent public benchmarks: the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Landslide Monitoring Dataset (TGRA-LMD) and the European Ground Motion Service Sentinel-1 (EGMS-S1) dataset. The framework outperforms six state-of-the-art baselines by 4.7–11.2% in F1-score, and ablation studies confirm that the explicit inclusion of traffic-loading features alone improves Warning-class recall by 6.3 percentage points, demonstrating a direct and physically grounded link between cyclic vehicular loading and slope-state prediction. The system satisfies operationally relevant engineering targets for warning lead time and false-alarm rate, and provides interpretable attention maps suitable for transportation-authority decision support. Full article

Interpreting complex, non-linear Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) displacement time-series data for infrastructure risk assessment remains a significant geotechnical challenge. This is particularly evident in regions with established road and railway infrastructures, where the primary objective is monitoring the entire network to ensure safety and operational continuity. Because landslide displacement is a highly complex process affected by a combination of internal geological conditions and external triggers, time-series data inherently encode non-linear trends and periodic fluctuations. To address this, a data-driven framework utilizing a sliding-window transformation to engineer temporal-kinematic features is proposed, providing a broader framework for the contextualization of slope stability assessment from a network perspective. This is paired with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and evaluated across four unsupervised architectures: K-means, Self-Organising Maps (SOMs), Hybrid SOM-K-means, and PCA-K-means. The comparative evaluation reveals that the PCA-K-means pipeline performed best, offering a highly efficient and scalable workflow. The analysis revealed that the optimized PCA-K-means architecture successfully captured 79.20% of the kinematic variance across the first two principal components. Furthermore, it achieved a robust Between-Cluster-to-Total-Sum-of-Squares (BCSS/TSS) ratio of 71.70%, an optimal Silhouette Score of 0.320, and a low Quantisation Error (QE) of 0.90, demonstrating superior spatial separation and geometric accuracy compared to traditional heuristic methods. When cross-validated against static topographic susceptibility models, the dynamic kinematic clusters exhibited a 23% spatial convergence at the polar bounds of risk, successfully grounding the algorithm’s predictions in physically verified geomorphological features. Relying on the statistical volatility of displacements, this optimal model successfully partitioned the data into five distinct geotechnical risk classes, ranging from stable (Class A) to extreme risk (Class E). The results demonstrate that the developed dynamic framework provides a highly reliable, actionable tool for proactive, large-scale slope stability and infrastructure risk assessment. Full article

Regional coseismic landslide hazard assessment is important for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development in seismically active mountainous regions. Existing Newmark displacement prediction models exhibit systematic bias when applied to Southwest China due to the region’s distinctive seismotectonic and topographic characteristics. This study addresses this limitation by systematically evaluating and recalibrating seven established models using 591 horizontal strong-motion records from nine significant regional earthquakes (2007–2022). Among the recalibrated versions, the Yiğit2020 framework performed best but showed potential for further improvement. Analysis revealed a stable log-linear correlation between peak ground velocity (PGV) and Newmark displacement, with an average of 0.78 under different critical acceleration levels. By incorporating a log PGV term, a new model was developed, achieving improved performance with an R² of 0.92 and a standard deviation (σ) of 0.30. Validation results further showed that the new model reduced the mean relative error from 74.22% to 66.43% and the median relative error from 53.83% to 38.90%, compared with the recalibrated Yiğit2020 model. In a case study of the 2022 Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake, the proposed model yielded the highest landslide discrimination capability (AUC = 0.687), outperforming other models (AUC = 0.600–0.636). These results support more reliable regional hazard zoning and rapid post-earthquake risk identification, thereby contributing to sustainable land-use planning, infrastructure resilience, and disaster risk reduction in seismically active mountainous regions. Full article

Time-series InSAR is an important means for early identification and monitoring of landslides. However, in complex mountainous areas, it still faces challenges such as significant geometric distortions and complicated deformation mechanisms. To address these issues, this paper proposes a landslide identification and prediction framework that integrates ascending and descending orbits InSAR observations with physics-guided deep learning. Taking Yangbi County, Yunnan Province, as a case study, we combined ascending and descending Sentinel-1A data and employed the SBAS-InSAR method to identify potential landslides, detecting a total of 41 hazardous sites. The cumulative displacement time series of typical landslides were further extracted along the slope aspect to more realistically reflect landslide movement characteristics. On this basis, wavelet decomposition was introduced to separate the displacement series into trend and periodic components. Gray relational analysis was then used to select influencing factors such as precipitation and temperature, and a stepwise prediction model based on LSTM (WT-LSTM) was constructed. The results indicate that the model achieves significantly higher prediction accuracy at characteristic points of the representative landslide (RMSE = 1.16–2.19 mm) compared to standalone LSTM and SVR models. These findings demonstrate its effectiveness and potential applicability in landslide deformation monitoring and prediction in complex mountainous areas, while also providing a useful reference for landslide risk early warning. Full article

Hydrodynamically triggered landslides remain a major concern in reservoir regions, where the mechanisms controlling displacement evolution are still not fully understood and the multi-scale deformation responses induced by individual hydrodynamic factors remain difficult to quantify. To address these issues, this study establishes a TSD-TET composite framework by integrating time-series signal decomposition with deep learning for multi-scale displacement prediction and the mechanism-oriented interpretation of hydrodynamically triggered landslides. The monitored displacement sequence is first decomposed into physically interpretable components, including trend, periodic, and random terms. Each component is subsequently predicted using deep temporal learning models to capture different deformation characteristics at multiple temporal scales. Meanwhile, key hydrodynamic driving factors, including rainfall, reservoir water level, and groundwater level, are decomposed within the same framework to examine their statistical associations with different displacement components. The proposed approach is applied to the Donglingxin landslide located in the Sanbanxi Hydropower Station reservoir area. Results show that the model achieves high prediction accuracy under both long-term forecasting horizons and limited-sample conditions, with a cumulative displacement coefficient of determination reaching R² = 0.945. Mechanism analysis further indicates that trend deformation is mainly controlled by geological structure and gravitational loading, periodic deformation is strongly modulated by hydrological cycles associated with reservoir water level fluctuations, and random deformation is more likely to reflect short-term disturbances and transient hydrodynamic forcing. These findings provide new insights into the deformation mechanisms of hydrodynamically triggered landslides and offer a promising technical pathway for improving displacement prediction, monitoring, and early warning of reservoir-induced landslide hazards. Full article

Global climate change and increasingly complex geological conditions have led to more frequent landslides in the red-bed sedimentary layers of western Sichuan, China, posing severe threats to human safety and hindering progress toward regional Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to disaster risk reduction and ecological protection. To address this challenge and advance sustainable disaster management, this study proposes a lightweight hybrid model, termed Transformer–Attention–LSTM, which integrates the global attention mechanism of Transformers with the local time-series modeling capabilities of Long Short-Term Memory networks. Focusing on the Kuyaogou landslide, the model achieves an optimal balance between parameter scale, sequence length, and prediction accuracy. The mean Coefficient of Determination (R²) values for the test samples in the X, Y, and Z directions reached 0.948, representing enhancements of 9.9%, 4.2%, and 2.3%, respectively, compared to the suboptimal Attention–LSTM model. Concurrently, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were reduced to 9.23 mm and 7.17 mm, respectively. Based on these displacement predictions, the landslide evolution stage was determined by calculating the tangent angle, indicating that the Kuyaogou landslide will remain in a stable creep phase over the ensuing ten-day period with low overall risk of rapid movement, though localized instability requires continued monitoring. This research provides a ‘small, fast, and accurate’ paradigm for red-bed landslide displacement prediction, offering scientific support for disaster prevention and emergency decision-making. The framework demonstrates potential for broader application in monitoring other geological hazards, thereby contributing to the implementation of sustainable development strategies in geohazard-prone regions. Full article

The strength of Xigeda strata decreases significantly upon contact with water, and the shear strength between sandstone and mudstone layers is lower than that within the individual layers. Therefore, the interlayer dip angle plays an important role in determining the failure mode of rainfall-induced landslides. To investigate the effect of interlayer dip angle on the mechanical response of Xigeda sandstone–mudstone slopes under rainfall conditions, a total of five model slope tests were conducted. Different ratios of model materials were selected for the sandstone and mudstone, and artificial rainfall with intensities representative of the Panxi region was simulated using a calibrated rainfall device. A combination of photography and instrument measurements was employed to study the seepage field, deformation field, and slope failure characteristics at five interlayer dip angles. It is shown that when the interlayer dip angle is smaller than the slope angle, an increase in the interlayer dip angle accelerates the movement of the wetting front along the weak interlayer plane. At the same time, this increase shortens the time to the occurrence of abrupt displacement and increases the corresponding displacement magnitude, which makes slope failure prediction more challenging. The shoulders of all slopes experienced displacement earliest and exhibited the largest displacement amplitude. The slope failure mode transitioned from shallow surface sliding to interlayer sliding. When the interlayer dip angle surpassed the slope angle, the weak interlayer plane was no longer the dominant control surface. Slope stability was thereby moderately enhanced, with the failure mode shifting to through-layer sliding. Full article

This study proposes a hybrid landslide displacement prediction model based on multi-strategy integrated optimization to address high nonlinearity and limited accuracy. An improved SFOA with Lévy flight, dynamic exploration adjustment, and stagnation detection enhances global search and convergence. The optimized SFOA (OSFOA) is employed to optimize CEEMDAN using minimum envelope entropy, reducing hyperparameter subjectivity and decomposing cumulative displacement into multi-scale components. The trend term is predicted by a Bayesian-optimized ARIMA, while periodic and stochastic terms are further decomposed by VMD and predicted using Bayesian-optimized SVR. GRA-MIC is applied to select key influencing factors and optimize model inputs. Results show that the proposed method improves accuracy and stability, reducing RMSE by about 82% and 52% compared with SSA-SVR and the baseline single decomposition model, respectively. The study further identifies monthly rainfall change and two-month reservoir level variation as the dominant driving factors for the displacement evolution, providing an effective and interpretable approach for complex landslide early warning. Full article

Accurate prediction of landslide displacement is crucial for hazard prevention. However, recurrent neural network (RNN) models have limitations in simultaneously capturing lag time and feature importance, and their black-box nature limits their interpretability. Moreover, the performance of single models varies across different deformation stages, especially during acceleration. To address these challenges, we propose an interpretable deep reinforcement learning-based adaptive ensemble (DRL-AE) framework. The method employs Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess to separate cumulative displacement into trend and periodic components. Trend and periodic sequences are predicted using double exponential smoothing and three RNN variants, respectively. An improved Convolutional Block Attention Module (ICBAM) enhances periodic feature extraction and provides temporal–spatial interpretability. The Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient algorithm adaptively integrates multi-model predictions in response to evolving environmental conditions. To validate the DRL-AE, a case study is conducted on the Baijiabao landslide in Zigui County, China. The results indicate that the DRL-AE substantially enhances prediction accuracy. For periodic displacement, it reduces MAE by 10.02% and RMSE by 6.65%, and increases R² by 4.27% compared with the ICBAM-GRU model. The results also confirm the effectiveness of ICBAM in feature extraction, and the generated heatmaps provide intuitive interpretability of the relevant triggering factors. Full article