Search Results (988)

Land use/land cover (LULC) change constitutes a critical driver influencing regional carbon cycling processes. Optimizing LULC structures represents a significant pathway toward the realization of carbon neutrality. This study takes Liaoning Province as a case area to analyze LULC changes from 2000 to 2020 and to assess their impacts on land use carbon emissions (LUCE) and ecosystem carbon storage (ECS). To accelerate the achievement of carbon neutrality, four development scenarios are established: natural development (ND), low-carbon emission (LCE), high-carbon storage (HCS), and carbon neutrality (CN). For each scenario, corresponding optimization objectives and constraint conditions are defined, and a multi-objective LULC optimization coupling model is formulated to optimize both the quantity structure and spatial pattern of LULC. On this basis, the model quantifies ECS and LUCE under the four scenarios and evaluates the economic value of each scenario and its contribution to the carbon neutrality target. Results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the extensive expansion of construction land resulted in a reduction in ECS by 12.72 × 10⁶ t and an increase in LUCE by 150.44 × 10⁶ t; (2) Compared to the ND scenario, the LCE scenario exhibited the most significant performance in controlling carbon emissions, while the HCS scenario achieved the highest increase in carbon sequestration. The CN scenario showed significant advantages in reducing LUCE, enhancing ECS, and promoting economic growth, achieving a reduction of 0.18 × 10⁶ t in LUCE, an increase of 118.84 × 10⁶ t in ECS, and an economic value gain of 3386.21 × 10⁶ yuan. This study optimizes the LULC structure from the perspective of balancing economic development, LUCE reduction, and ECS enhancement. It addresses the inherent conflict between regional economic growth and ecological conservation, providing scientific evidence and policy insights for promoting LULC optimization and advancing carbon neutrality in similar regions. Full article

Flood susceptibility mapping is essential for urban planning and disaster risk management, especially in rapidly urbanizing areas exposed to extreme rainfall events. This study applies an integrated approach combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS), map algebra, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess flood-prone zones in Ananindeua, Pará, Brazil. Five geoenvironmental criteria—rainfall, land use and land cover (LULC), slope, soil type, and drainage density—were selected and weighted using AHP to generate a composite flood susceptibility index. The results identified rainfall and slope as the most influential criteria, with both contributing to over 184 km² of high-susceptibility area. Spatial patterns showed that flood-prone zones are concentrated in flat urban areas with high drainage density and extensive impermeable surfaces. CHIRPS rainfall data were validated using Pearson’s correlation (r = 0.83) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS = 0.97), confirming the reliability of the precipitation input. The final susceptibility map, categorized into low, medium, and high classes, was validated using flood events derived from Sentinel-1 SAR data (2019–2025), of which 97.2% occurred in medium- or high-susceptibility zones. These findings demonstrate the model’s strong predictive performance and highlight the role of unplanned urban expansion, land cover changes, and inadequate drainage in increasing flood risk. Although specific to Ananindeua, the proposed methodology can be adapted to other urban areas in Brazil, provided local conditions and data availability are considered. Full article

Exploring the evolution of ecosystem services value (ESV) and its drivers is pivotal for optimizing the land-use structure and improving the value of ecosystem services. Using the 1980–2020 land-use/land-cover (LULC) dataset of the Mu Us Sandy Land, this study quantitatively evaluated ESV through LULC change, analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV and its driving forces. The results showed that (1) the LULC changes were stable from 1980 to 2020, and the ESV showed a slight downward trend in general. Grassland and water ecosystem services predominantly influenced ecosystem service function value fluctuations across the study area. (2) ESV demonstrated strong positive spatial autocorrelation, with high-value areas concentrated primarily in Red Alkali Nur, Dawa Nur, Batu Bay, and Ulanmulun Lake and low-value areas mainly distributed in unused land and certain agricultural zones. (3) The land-use degree and human activity intensity index were the main factors leading to the differentiation of ESV. The synergistic effects of human activities, landscape pattern changes, and natural factors led to the spatial differentiation of ESV in the study area. Beyond artificial ecological restoration projects, policies for ecosystem service management should pay more attention to the role of geodiversity in service provision. Full article

This study aimed to investigate land-use and land-cover change and the associated change in the ecological stability of the model area Dobrá–Opatová (district of Trenčín, Slovakia), where increasing landscape transformation has raised concerns about declining ecological resilience. Despite the importance of sustainable land management, few studies in this region have addressed long-term landscape dynamics in relation to ecological stability. This research fills that gap by evaluating historical and recent LULC changes and their ecological consequences. Four time horizons were analysed: 1850, 1949, 2009, and 2024. Although the selected time periods are irregular, they reflect key milestones in the region’s land development, such as pre-industrial land use, post-war collectivisation, and recent land consolidation. These activities significantly altered the structure of the landscape. To assess future trends, we used the MOLUSCE plug-in in QGIS to simulate ecological stability for the future. The greatest structural landscape changes occurred between 1850 and 1949. Significant transformation in agricultural areas was observed between 1949 and 2009, when collectivisation reshaped small plots into large block structures and major water management projects were implemented. The 2009–2024 period was marked by land consolidation, mainly resulting in the construction of gravel roads. These structural changes have contributed to a continuous decrease in ecological stability, calculated using the coefficient of ecological stability derived from LULC categories. To explore future trends, we simulated ecological stability for the year 2030 and the simulation confirmed a continued decline in ecological stability, highlighting the need for sustainable land-use planning in the area. Full article

Oases in arid regions are critical ecosystems, providing essential ecological, agricultural, and socio-economic functions. However, urbanization and climate change increasingly threaten their sustainability. This study examines land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) dynamics in four representative North African oases: Tolga (Algeria), Nefta (Tunisia), Ghadames (Libya), and Siwa (Egypt) over the period 2000–2023, using Landsat satellite imagery. A three-step analysis was employed: calculation of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), NDBI (Normalized Difference Built-up Index), and LST, followed by supervised land cover classification and statistical tests to examine the relationships between the studied variables. The results reveal substantial reductions in bare soil (e.g., 48.10% in Siwa) and notable urban expansion (e.g., 136.01% in Siwa and 48.46% in Ghadames). Vegetation exhibited varied trends, with a slight decline in Tolga (0.26%) and a significant increase in Siwa (+27.17%). LST trends strongly correlated with land cover changes, demonstrating increased temperatures in urbanized areas and moderated temperatures in vegetated zones. Notably, this study highlights that traditional urban designs integrated with dense palm groves significantly mitigate thermal stress, achieving lower LST compared to modern urban expansions characterized by sparse, heat-absorbing surfaces. In contrast, areas dominated by fragmented vegetation or seasonal crops exhibited reduced cooling capacity, underscoring the critical role of vegetation type, spatial arrangement, and urban morphology in regulating oasis microclimates. Preserving palm groves, which are increasingly vulnerable to heat-driven pests, diseases and the introduction of exotic species grown for profit, together with a revival of the traditional compact urban fabric that provides shade and has been empirically confirmed by other oasis studies to moderate the microclimate more effectively than recent low-density extensions, will maintain the crucial synergy between buildings and vegetation, enhance the cooling capacity of these settlements, and safeguard their tangible and intangible cultural heritage. Full article

Rapid urbanization and industrial development have significantly altered land use and cover across the globe, intensifying urban thermal environments and exacerbating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Gujranwala, Pakistan, represents an industrial growth that has driven substantial land use/land cover (LULC) changes and temperature increases; however, the directional and distance-based patterns of these changes remain unquantified. Therefore, this study is conducted to examine spatiotemporal changes in LULC and variations in the Urban Thermal Field Variation Index (UTFVI) between 2001 and 2021 and to project future scenarios for 2031 and 2041 using (1) Earth Observation Indices (EOIs) with machine learning (ML) classifiers (Random Forest) for precise LULC mapping through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, (2) Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Networks (CA-ANNs) for future scenario projection, and (3) Gradient Directional Analysis (GDA) to quantify directional (16-axis) and distance-based (concentric zones) patterns of urban expansion and thermal variation from 2001–2021. The study revealed significant LULC changes, with built-up areas expanding by 7.5% from 2001 to 2021, especially in the east, northeast, and southeast directions within a 20 km radius. Due to urban encroachment, vegetation and cropland decreased by 1.47% and 1.83%, respectively. The urban thermal environment worsened, with the highest land surface temperature (LST) rising from 41 °C in 2001 to 55 °C in 2021. Additionally, the UTFVI showed expanding areas under the ‘strong’ and ‘strongest’ categories, increasing from 30.58% in 2001 to 33.42% in 2041. Directional analysis highlighted severe thermal stress in the southern and southwestern areas linked to industrial activities and urban sprawl. This integrated approach provides a template for analyzing urban thermal environments in developing cities, supporting targeted mitigation strategies through direction- and distance-specific planning interventions to mitigate UHI impacts. Full article

Land cover changes have significant implications for ecosystem services, influencing agricultural productivity, soil stability, hydrological processes, and biodiversity. This study assesses the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) change on soil erosion in the Upper Guder River catchment, Ethiopia, from 1986 to 2020. We analyzed Landsat imagery for three periods (1986, 2002, and 2020), achieving a classification accuracy of 89.21% and a kappa coefficient of 0.839. Using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, we quantified spatial and temporal variations in soil erosion. Over the study period, cultivated land expanded from 51.89% to 78.40%, primarily at the expense of shrubland and grassland, which declined to 6.61% and 2.98%, respectively. Forest cover showed a modest decline, from 13.60% to 11.24%, suggesting a partial offset by reforestation efforts. Built-up areas nearly tripled, reflecting increasing anthropogenic pressure. Mean annual soil loss increased markedly from 107.63 to 172.85 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with cultivated land exhibiting the highest erosion rates (199.5 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in 2020). Severe erosion (>50 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) was concentrated on steep slopes under intensive cultivation. These findings emphasize the urgent need for integrated land management strategies that stabilize erosion-prone landscapes while improving agricultural productivity and ecological resilience. Full article

Urbanization is causing a decrease in agricultural land. This leads to changes in cropping patterns, irrigation water availability, and water allowance. Therefore, change in cropping pattern, irrigation water availability, and water allowance were investigated in the Multan region of Pakistan using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The multi-temporal Landsat images with 30 m resolution were acquired for both Rabi (winter) and Kharif (summer) seasons for the years of 1988, 1999 and 2020. The image processing tasks including layer stacking, sub-setting, land use/land cover (LULC) classification, and accuracy assessment were performed using ERDAS Imagine (2015) software. The LULC maps showed a considerable shift of orchard area to urban settlements and other crops. About 82% of orchard areas have shifted to urban settlements and other crops from 1988 to 2020. The LULC maps for Kharif season indicated that cropped areas for cotton have decreased by 42.5% and the cropped areas for rice have increased by 718% in the last 32 years (1988–2020). During the rabi season, the cropped areas for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) have increased by 27% from 1988 to 2020. The irrigation water availability and water allowance have increased up to 125 and 110% due to decrease in agricultural land, respectively. The overall average accuracies were found as 87 and 89% for Rabi and Kharif crops, respectively. The LULC mapping technique may be used to develop a decision support system for evaluating the changes in cropping pattern and their impacts on net water availability and water allowances. Full article

In recent years, remote sensing and geographic information systems (GISs) have become essential tools for effective landscape management. This study utilizes these technologies to analyze land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Dibru-Saikhowa National Park, a riverine ecosystem in Assam, India, from its designation as a national park in 2000 through 2024. The satellite imagery was used to classify LULC types and track landscape changes over time. In 2000, grasslands were the dominant land cover (28.78%), followed by semi-evergreen forests (25.58%). By 2013, shrubland became the most prominent class (81.31 km²), and degraded forest expanded to 75.56 km². During this period, substantial areas of grassland (29.94 km²), degraded forest (10.87 km²), semi-evergreen forest (12.33 km²), and bareland (10.50 km²) were converted to shrubland. In 2024, degraded forest further increased, covering 80.52 km² (23.47%). This change resulted since numerous areas of shrubland (11.46 km²) and semi-evergreen forest (27.48 km²) were converted into degraded forest. Furthermore, significant shifts were observed in grassland, shrubland, and degraded forest, indicating a substantial and consistent decline in grassland. These changes are largely attributed to recurring Brahmaputra River floods and increasing anthropogenic pressures. This study recommends a targeted Grassland Recovery Project, control of invasive species, improved surveillance, increased staffing, and the relocation of forest villages to reduce human impact and support community-based conservation efforts. Hence, protecting the landscape through informed LULC-based management can help maintain critical habitat patches, mitigate anthropogenic degradation, and enhance the survival prospects of native floral and faunal assemblages in DSNP. Full article

Hydrological processes in river systems are changing due to climate variability and human activities, making it crucial to understand and quantify these changes for effective water resource management. This study examines long-term trends in hydroclimate variables (1990–2022) and land use/land cover (LULC) changes (1988, 2002, and 2022) within the Continental Reach of the Gambia River Basin (CGRB). Trend analyses of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 12-month and 24-month scales, along with river discharge at the Simenti station, reveal a shift from dry conditions to wetter phases post-2008, marked by significant increases in rainfall and discharge variability. LULC analysis revealed significant transformations in the basin. LULC analysis highlights significant transformations within the basin. Forest and savanna areas decreased by 20.57 and 4.48%, respectively, between 1988 and 2002, largely due to human activities such as agricultural expansion and deforestation for charcoal production. Post-2002, forest cover recovered from 32.36 to 36.27%, coinciding with the wetter conditions after 2008, suggesting that climatic shifts promoted vegetation regrowth. Spatial analysis further highlights an increase in bowe and steppe areas, especially in the north, indicating land degradation linked to human land use practices. Bowe areas, marked by impermeable laterite outcrops, and steppe areas with sparse herbaceous cover result from overgrazing and soil degradation, exacerbated by the region’s drier phases. A notable decrease in burned areas from 2.03 to 0.23% suggests improvements in fire management practices, reducing fire frequency, which is also supported by wetter conditions post-2008. Agricultural land and bare soils expanded by 14%, from 2.77 to 3.07%, primarily in the northern and central regions, likely driven by both population pressures and climatic shifts. Correlations between precipitation and land cover changes indicate that wetter conditions facilitated forest regrowth, while drier conditions exacerbated land degradation, with human activities such as deforestation and agricultural expansion potentially amplifying the impact of climatic shifts. These results demonstrate that while climatic shifts played a role in driving vegetation recovery, human activities were key in shaping land use patterns, impacting both precipitation and stream discharge, particularly due to agricultural practices and land degradation. Full article

Urbanization is one of the most important challenges contributing to the trend of replacing agricultural land with high-value land uses, such as housing, as well as industrial and commercial activities, as a result of significant population growth. To face these challenges and improve urban sustainability, integrating an embedded concept of spatial planning, taking into account urban and peri-urban agriculture, will contribute to mitigating food security issues and the negative impact of climate change, while improving social and economic development. This project aims to analyze land use/cover changes in the Casablanca metropolitan area and its surrounding cities, which are undergoing rapid urban growth. To achieve this, time series of remote sensing data were analyzed in order to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in LU/LC and to evaluate the dynamics and spatial pattern of the city’s expansion over the past three decades, which has come at the expense of agricultural land. The study will also examine the relationship between urbanization and agricultural land use change over time. The results of this study show that Casablanca and its outskirts experience significant urban expansion and a decline in arable lands, with rates of 45% and 42%, respectively. The analysis of SDG indicator 11.3.1 has also shown that land consumption in the provinces of Mediouna, Mohammadia, and Nouaceur has exceeded population growth, due to rapid, uncontrolled urbanization at the expense of agricultural land, which highlights the need to develop a new conceptual framework for regenerating land systems based on the implementation of urban and peri-urban agriculture in vacant sites within urban and peri-urban areas. This will offer valuable insights for policymakers to investigate measures that can ensure sustainable land use planning strategies that effectively integrate agriculture into urban development. Full article

The conservation and monitoring of land cover represent crucial elements for sustainable regional development, especially in fragile high Andean ecosystems. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Locumba basin over the period of 1984–2023. A hybrid modeling approach combining artificial neural networks (ANN) and cellular automata (CA) was employed to project future changes for 2033, 2043, and 2053. The results reveal a significant reduction in glaciers and lagoons throughout the Locumba basin, with notable declines from 1984 to 2023, while vegetated areas, particularly grasslands and wetlands, experienced substantial expansion. Specifically, grasslands increased by 273.7% relative to their initial coverage, growing from 57.87 km² in 1984 to over 220.31 km² in 2023, with projections indicating continued growth to over 331.62 km² by 2053. This multitemporal analysis provides crucial information for anticipating future land dynamics and underscores the urgent need for strategic conservation planning to mitigate the continued loss of strategic ecosystems in the high Andean region of Tacna. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive coastal vulnerability assessment framework by integrating a range of physical, environmental, and climatic parameters. Key criteria include shoreline changes, coastal geomorphology, slope, elevation, bathymetry, tidal range, wave height, shoreline change rates, population density, land use and land cover (LULC), temperature, precipitation, and coastal inundation factors. By synthesizing these parameters with real-time coastal monitoring data, the framework enhances the accuracy of regional risk evaluations. The study employs Multi-Criteria Spatial Analysis (MCSA) to systematically assess and prioritize vulnerability indicators, enabling a data-driven and objective approach to coastal zone management. The findings aim to support coastal planners, policymakers, and stakeholders in designing effective, sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies for regions most at risk. This integrative approach not only strengthens the scientific understanding of coastal vulnerabilities but also serves as a valuable tool for informed decision-making under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions. Full article

In recent years, the world has seen a significant increase in extreme weather events, such as floods, hurricanes, and storms, which have caused extensive damage to infrastructure and communities. These events result from natural phenomena and human-induced factors, including climate change and natural climate variations. For instance, the floods in Europe in 2024 and the hurricanes in the United States have highlighted the vulnerability of urban and rural areas. These extreme events are often unpredictable and pose considerable challenges for spatial planning and risk management. This study explores an innovative approach that employs machine learning and Markov chains to enhance spatial planning and predict flood risk areas. By utilizing data such as weather records, land use and land cover (LULC) information, topographic LIDAR data, and advanced predictive models, the study aims to identify the most vulnerable areas and provide recommendations for risk mitigation. The results indicate that integrating these technologies can improve forecasting accuracy, thereby supporting more informed decisions in land management. Given the effects of climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme events, adopting advanced forecasting and planning tools is crucial for protecting communities and reducing economic and social damage. This method was applied to the Calopinace area, also known as the Calopinace River or Fiumara della Cartiera, which crosses Reggio Calabria and is notorious for its historical floods. It can serve as part of an early warning system, enabling alerts to be issued throughout the monitored area. Furthermore, it can be integrated into existing emergency protocols, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of disaster response. Future research could investigate incorporating additional data and AI techniques to improve accuracy. Full article

Land use and land cover (LULC) in Northern Bangladesh have undergone substantial transformations due to both anthropogenic and natural drivers. This study examines historical LULC changes (1990–2022) and projects future trends for 2030 and 2054 using remote sensing and the Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was classified with 80.75–86.23% accuracy (Kappa: 0.75–0.81). Model validation comparing simulated and actual 2014 data yielded 79.98% accuracy, indicating a reasonably good performance given the region’s rapidly evolving and heterogeneous landscape. The results reveal a significant decline in waterbodies, which is projected to shrink by 34.4% by 2054, alongside a 1.21% reduction in cropland raising serious environmental and food security concerns. Vegetation, after an initial massive decrease (1990–2014), increased (2014–2022) due to different forms of agroforestry practices and is expected to increase by 4.64% by 2054. While the model demonstrated fair predictive power, its moderate accuracy highlights challenges in forecasting LULC in areas characterized by informal urbanization, seasonal land shifts, and riverbank erosion. These dynamics limit prediction reliability and reflect the region’s ecological vulnerability. The findings call for urgent policy action particularly afforestation, water resource management, and integrated land use planning to ensure environmental sustainability and resilience in this climate-sensitive area. Full article