Search Results (1,520)

Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are crucial for mitigating flood risks in vulnerable ecosystems, yet their effective application remains inconsistent. This study synthesises global literature to systematically map EIA methodologies, evaluate the extent of hydrological integration, and analyse the evolution of practices against policy frameworks for flood-prone areas. A scoping review of 144 peer-reviewed articles, conference papers, and one book chapter (2005–2025) was conducted using PRISMA protocols, complemented by bibliometric analysis. Quantitative findings reveal a significant gap where 72% of studies lacked specialised hydrological impact assessments (HIAs), with only 28% incorporating them. Post-2016, advanced tools like GIS, remote sensing, and hydrological modelling were used in less than 32% of studies, revealing reliance on outdated checklist methods. In South Africa, despite wetlands covering 7.7% of its territory, merely 12% of studies applied flood modelling. Furthermore, 40% of EIAs conducted after 2016 excluded climate adaptation strategies, undermining resilience. The literature is geographically skewed, with developed nations dominating publications at a 3:1 ratio over African contributions. The study’s novelty is its systematic global mapping of global EIA practices for flood-prone areas and its proposal for mandatory HIAs, predictive modelling, and strengthened policy enforcement. Practically, these reforms can transform EIAs from reactive compliance tools into proactive instruments for disaster risk reduction and climate resilience, directly supporting Sustainable Development Goals 11 (Sustainable Cities), 13 (Climate Action), and 15 (Life on Land). This is essential for guiding future policy and improving EIA efficacy in the face of rapid urbanisation and climate change. Full article

In the context of the “Dual Carbon” goals, accurately predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of urban Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is crucial for resilient urban planning. While recent studies have coupled land use models with ecosystem models to project NPP dynamics, they often face challenges in acquiring high-resolution future vegetation parameters and typically overlook the stability of NPP under changing climates. To address these gaps, this study focuses on Nanjing and develops a long-term, multi-scenario analysis framework based on the Dynamic Land Cover–Climate Model (DLCC–NPP). This framework innovatively integrates the PLUS model with a Random Forest (RF) algorithm. By establishing a direct statistical mapping between macro-climate/micro-land cover and NPP, the RF model functions as a statistical downscaling tool. This approach bypasses the uncertainty accumulation associated with simulating future vegetation indices, enabling precise spatiotemporal NPP prediction at a 30 m resolution. Using this approach, we systematically analyzed the NPP dynamics from 2004 to 2044 under three SSP scenarios. The results revealed that Nanjing’s NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with urban forests contributing the highest productivity (mean NPP ~266.15 gC/m²). Crucially, the volatility analysis highlighted divergent response characteristics: forests demonstrated the highest stability and “buffering effect,” whereas grasslands and croplands showed high volatility and sensitivity to climate fluctuations. Spatially, a distinct “stable high-NPP core, decreasing periphery” pattern was identified, driven by the interaction of urban expansion and ecological conservation policies. In conclusion, the DLCC–NPP framework effectively overcomes the data scarcity bottleneck in future simulations and characterizes the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of vegetation carbon fixation in urban ecosystems, providing scientific support for optimizing green space patterns and enhancing urban ecological resilience in high-density cities. Full article

Rapid urbanization has driven land-use transitions, leading to the continuous replacement of land-use types with high carbon storage capacity by those with lower capacity. A deeper analysis of the drivers behind these changes and predictions of their future development is essential for optimizing land-use patterns and enhancing regional carbon sink functions. This study takes the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration (GPUA) as a case study. It employs the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics from 2000 to 2020 and to project the LULC and associated spatial clustering characteristics of carbon storage in 2030. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, LULC changes in the region were dominated by the conversion of cropland to built-up land, primarily concentrated in urban areas and along the Wei River corridor. By 2030, built-up land is expected to continue expanding along transportation corridors and urban peripheries, further reducing the area of cropland. (2) Changes in carbon storage were mainly driven by LULC transitions, with an overall declining trend observed from 2000 to 2020 (decreasing from 2754.69 Mt to 2741.79 Mt) despite the buffering effect of ecological restoration, and a projected continued decrease to 2734.28 Mt by 2030. (3) The spatial distribution of carbon storage was characterized by a strengthening polarization. The proportion of hotspot areas increased from 30.38% to 32.33% over the 2000–2020 period, with a concentration in ecological function zones such as the Qinling Mountains, Ziwuling, and Huanglongshan. Concurrently, coldspot areas also expanded. Future efforts should prioritize the protection of high-carbon-sink mountainous zones, strictly control the outward expansion of built-up land, and enhance carbon storage capacity in agricultural areas to support low-carbon development and spatial optimization in the GPUA. Full article

The study and understanding of spatial and temporal changes in the landscape is essential for assessing environmental trends and predicting future developments in the area. Changes in land cover and vegetation dynamics are key indicators of the ecological stability of an area. This study analyzes long-term changes in land cover and vegetation dynamics in Jelšava and neighboring municipalities. The selected area has long been classified as one of the areas with poor air quality in Slovakia. The analysis is based on data from the CORINE Land Cover program for the period 1990–2018 and Landsat data from 1990 to 2025. The condition and vitality of vegetation were assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), while temporal trends were assessed using non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests. The results show a decrease in the area of class 31—Forests between 2012 and 2018, accompanied by an increase in the area of class 324—Transitional woodland–shrub. Analysis of the NDVI confirmed a slightly positive trend in vegetation cover development, with statistically significant growth (p < 0.05) recorded on approximately 43% of the territory. The combination of remote sensing data and spatial analysis in a GIS environment has proven to be an effective approach to monitoring ecological dynamics and provides valuable insights for regional environmental management and sustainable land use planning. Full article

The Iraqi coastline in the northern Persian Gulf is highly vulnerable to the impacts of future sea level rise. This study introduces a novel approach in the Arc Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) for inundation risk of the 58 km Iraqi coast of the northern Persian Gulf through a combination of multi-data sources, machine-learning predictions, and hydrological connectivity by Landsat. The Prophet/Neural Prophet time-series framework was used to extrapolate future sea level rise with 11 satellite altimetry missions that span 1993–2023. The coastline was obtained by using the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery based on the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), and topography was obtained by using the ALOS World 3D 30 m DEM. Global Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) projections (2020–2100) and population projections (2020–2100) were used as future inundation values. Two scenarios were compared, one based on an altimeter-based projection of sea level rise (SLR) and the other based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) high-emission scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). It is found that, by the IPCC AR6 end-of-century projection horizon (relative to 1995–2014), 154,000 people under the altimeter case and 181,000 people under RCP8.5 will have a risk of being inundated. The highest flooded area is the barren area (25,523–46,489 hectares), then the urban land (5303–5743 hectares), and finally the cropland land (434–561 hectares). Critical infrastructure includes 275–406 km of road, 71–99 km of electricity lines, and 73–82 km of pipelines. The study provides the first hydrologically verified Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-refined inundation maps of Iraq that offer a baseline, in the form of a comprehensive and quantitative base, to the coastal adaptation and climate resilience planning. Full article

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is a crucial indicator of environmental transformation and has significant implications for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and climate change. This study investigates land-cover changes between 2017 and 2023 in three distinct mountain regions: the Bucegi Mountains, the Allgäu High Alps, and Mount Olympus. Using remote-sensing data from Sentinel 2 and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, we analyzed temporal shifts in land-cover types across these regions. The analysis highlights the varying rates and patterns of land-cover transformation in response to environmental and anthropogenic factors. Additionally, the MOLUSCE model was employed to predict future land-cover changes for the year 2029. The findings emphasize the dynamic nature of land-cover in these mountainous areas and offer insights into the potential environmental implications of predicted changes. The Bucegi and the Olympus regions experienced minor land-use changes, while the Allgäu High Alps have the most dynamic changes. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of land-cover dynamics and the applicability of remote sensing and GIS-based predictive models in ecological monitoring. Full article

Urban flooding has become a critical environmental challenge under global climate change and rapid urbanization. This study develops a multi-indicator hazard mechanism framework for flood hazard assessment in Rizhao, a coastal city in China, by integrating three fundamental hydrological processes: runoff generation, flow convergence, and drainage. Based on geospatial data—including DEM, road networks, land cover, and soil characteristics—six key indicators were evaluated using the TOPSIS method: runoff curve number, impervious surface percentage, topographic wetness index, time of concentration, pipeline density, and distance to rivers. The results show that extreme-hazard zones, covering 6.41% of the central urban area, are primarily clustered in northern sectors, where flood susceptibility is driven by the synergistic effects of high imperviousness, short concentration time, and inadequate drainage infrastructure. Independent validation using historical flood records confirmed the model’s reliability, with 83.72% of documented waterlogging points located in predicted high-hazard zones and an AUC value of 0.737 indicating good discriminatory performance. Based on spatial hazard patterns and causal mechanisms, an integrated mitigation strategy system of “source reduction, process regulation, and terminal enhancement” is proposed. This strategy provides practical guidance for pipeline rehabilitation and sponge city implementation in Rizhao’s resilience planning, while the developed hazard mechanism framework of “runoff–convergence–drainage” provides a transferable methodology for flood hazard assessment in large-scale urban environments. Full article

In agriculture, climate change is the most critical global issue. It is widely acknowledged that addressing this issue poses a considerable challenge, primarily due to its multifaceted impact on regional economies and land management practices. The concept of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) provides a prosperous approach offering both adaptation and mitigation models. However, NbS implementation is often compromised by various natural and societal challenges. Vojvodina Province, the northern province of the Republic of Serbia, features a typical rural landscape where centuries of agricultural practice have led to significant environmental changes, with 70% of the territory converted to arable land. However, climate change has been demonstrated to induce increasingly extreme weather conditions, which in turn exacerbate the situation with regard to food production. This paper aims to examine the most prosperous ways for NbS implementation in Vojvodina Province. The preset study mapped areas suitable for the implementation of selected NbS on the territory of Vojvodina Province. Maps were created in QGIS, while data were extracted from various sources (CORINE Land Cover, OpenStreetMap, the Institute for Nature Conservation of Vojvodina Province, and EUNIS platform). The area suitable for NbS in Vojvodina amounts to 1,183,228 ha or 55.74%. An increase in the area dedicated to organic and regenerative agriculture is projected, with a predicted range of up to 5%. Finally, we have identified grazing as a desirable management option for grassland management, which we have mapped, and it could potentially be practiced on almost 10% of the territory. Moreover, the engagement of various stakeholders is crucial in the implementation of NbS over the territory of the rural landscape. Considering that neighboring countries are facing the same climate circumstances and a similar social context, the findings we have presented in the paper may be applied to the region of the southern part of the Pannonian Plain. Full article

Floods rank among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards, threatening ecosystems, human settlements, and national economies. This study delineates flood-prone areas across Kosovo by developing a national-scale Flood Risk Database (FRDB) and a comprehensive mapping framework integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Eight hydrological and topographic conditioning factors—slope, elevation, flow accumulation, distance to rivers, land use/land cover, soil type, precipitation, and drainage density—were analyzed. AHP was employed to assign factor weights based on their relative influence on flood susceptibility, while MCDM aggregated these weighted spatial layers to generate a national flood risk map. Model validation, based on historical flood points, achieved an AUC of 0.909, confirming its high predictive accuracy. The resulting flood risk map classifies Kosovo’s territory into five risk levels: very high (0.56%), high (14.44%), moderate (36.68%), low (46.46%), and very low (1.88%). This research provides the first systematic national-scale FRDB for Kosovo, offering a reliable scientific basis for flood management, spatial planning, and climate resilience policy. Full article

Surface subsidence caused by high-intensity coal mining in the western mining area will have a negative impact on the environment. Mining subsidence has the characteristics of large scope, long duration, and strong destructiveness. In order to deeply understand the law of surface movement and deformation under the high-intensity mining of coal mines in western China, taking the Caojiatan 122,106 working face as an example, this study was conducted to obtain the surface movement characteristics and law by the method of surface rock movement measurement. The results showed that the surface subsidence in this study is mainly divided into three stages: start-up stage, active stage, and recession stage, with the active stage characterized by abrupt and intensive settlement. The maximum measured subsidence reached 4.173 m along the strike and 3.350 m along the dip. Numerical simulations further demonstrated strong vertical connectivity within the overburden, with surface subsidence area covering approximately 2/3 of the direct roof area. The predicted maximum subsidence values from simulation were 4.21 m (strike) and 3.36 m (dip), closely aligning with field data. A probability integral model was calibrated using observed data, yielding key parameters: subsidence coefficient = 0.537, main influence angle tangent = 4.435, horizontal movement coefficient = 0.20, inflection point offset = 76.90 m, and propagation angle = 86.2°. This study provides a validated methodology for predicting surface deformation in western mining areas and offers practical insights for subsidence mitigation and land restoration. Full article

The growing global demand for food and energy requires land-use strategies that support agricultural production and renewable energy generation. Agrivoltaic (APV) systems allow farmland to be used for both agriculture and solar power generation. The aim of this study is to critically synthesize the interactions between the key dimensions of APV implementation—technical, agronomic, legal, and economic—in order to create a multidimensional framework for designing an APV optimization model. The analysis covers APV system topologies, appropriate types of photovoltaic modules, installation geometry, shading conditions, and micro-environmental impacts. The paper categorizes quantitative indicators and critical thresholds that define trade-offs between energy production and crop yields, including a discussion of shade-tolerant crops (such as lettuce, clover, grapevines, and hops) that are most compatible with APV. Quantitative aspects were integrated in detail through a review of mathematical approaches used to predict yields (including exponential-linear, logistic, Gompertz, and GENECROP models). These models are key to quantitatively assessing the impact of photovoltaic modules on the light balance, thus enabling the simultaneous estimation of energy efficiency and yields. Technical solutions that enhance synthesis, such as dynamic tracking systems, which can increase energy production by up to 25–30% while optimizing light availability for crops, are also discussed. Additionally, the study examines regional legal frameworks and the economic factors influencing APV deployment, highlighting key challenges such as land use classification, grid connection limitations, investment costs and the absence of harmonised APV policies in many countries. It has been shown that APV systems can increase water retention, mitigate wind erosion, strengthen crop resilience to extreme weather conditions, and reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) compared to small rooftop PV systems. A key contribution of the work is the creation of a coherent analytical design framework that integrates technical, agronomic, legal and economic requirements as the most important input parameters for the APV system optimization model. This indicates that wider implementation of APV requires clear regulatory definitions, standardized design criteria, and dedicated support mechanisms. Full article

The study focuses on the impact of climate change and spatial planning policies on coastal landscape dynamics. We examine the present and future coastal land use/land cover (LULC) change for southwestern Ghana under the coastal resilience (CR) scenario and coastal planning (CP) scenario. It employs an integrated approach of a review of literature and satellite imagery analysis to map coastal land use/land cover (LULC) change, from 2010 to 2020, to predict future landscape transitions under a coastal resilience approach and then contrast it with a scenario where development of the coast continues. The results show a continual decline in wetlands, from 1882.43 ha in 2010 to 1743.49 ha in 2020. Increased development would dominate the landscape under a scenario where coastal planning continues to expand, whereas cultivated, agricultural lands and vegetation are likely to increase under a coastal resilience scenario in 2035 and 2057. This study recommends that government and other stakeholders should consider coastal landscape restoration plans and programmes towards landscape sustainability for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 11 and 13. Full article

Land use systems are closely coupled with socioeconomic activities. To explore the interactions between land use and socioeconomic activities in Bazhong City, clarify the characteristics, drivers, and future trends of land use change, and provide scientific support for optimizing regional land resource allocation, ecological conservation, and food security, this study analyzes land cover data from 2004 to 2024, identifies economic drivers via principal component analysis, and predicts future land use trends for 2025, 2030, and 2035 using the GM(1,1) model. The results indicate the following: (1) Cropland decreased by 1338.69 km², while forest increased by 1304.88 km², with the largest area of mutual conversion occurring between these two types. (2) The comprehensive index of land use exhibited a fluctuating decline. The quality and continuity of cropland decreased, while the expansion of forest increased ecosystem services. (3) Principal component analysis identified the Comprehensive Economic Development and Urbanization Factor (e.g., GDP, urbanization rate, etc.) as the long-term core driver, with the land use driving system evolving through three stages. (4) Projections indicate that forest will increase, while cropland will decrease by 263.83 km². While the cropland is projected to remain above the planned target by 2035, the persistent downward trend will nonetheless pose a threat to food security. This study provides insights for harmonizing land use planning with socioeconomic progress and ecological conservation with cropland protection and may also serve as a reference for related decision-making in similar regions. Full article

Wetlands store large amounts of soil organic carbon stock (SOCS), making them crucial for global climate regulation. However, climate change, poor management, and weak protection policies threaten these stocks. To assess the contribution of different wetland types for national and international climate targets and to monitor the effectiveness of protection measures, additional research is required. Therefore, we assessed SOCS and disturbances from climate change, land use/land cover (LULC), and soil chemical composition in saline and eutrophic Ramsar sites in Serbia. Analyzing a total of 96 samples, we accounted for soil depth, reference soil group (RSG), and habitat/vegetation type. Mean SOCS in the saline site ranged from approximately 36 t·ha⁻¹ at 0–30 cm to 26 t·ha⁻¹ at 30–60 cm, whereas values were much higher for the eutrophic sites, ranging from 81 to 82 t·ha⁻¹ at 0–30 cm and 47–63 t·ha⁻¹ at 30–60 cm. Differences between groups for the whole soil columns (0–60 cm) were significant at the 0.1% level. While SOCS generally decreases with depth, it showed notable local variability, including occasional instances at deeper layers, indicating complex environmental and anthropogenic influences. Spatial mapping of soil chemistry parameters (pH, humus, P₂O₅, and K₂O) along with land use/land cover (LULC) data revealed nutrient dynamics influenced by agricultural activities. An analysis of regional climate data revealed temperature increases relative to the reference period of 1971–2000 by 0.5 °C for the decade 2001–2010 and of 1.5 °C for 2011–2020. Climate projections under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios predict further warming trends, as well as increased rainfall variability and drought risks. The results of our study contribute to quantifying the important, though variable, contribution of wetland sites to global climate regulation and show the influence of geogenic, pedogenic, and anthropogenic factors on SOCS. National policies should be adapted to safeguard these stocks and to limit negative effects from surrounding agricultural areas, as well as to develop strategies to cope with expected regional climate change effects. Full article

Rapid urbanization has brought severe threats to regional ecological security. Most research regards ecological security pattern (ESP) focuses on the current situation and ignores future land use and land cover (LULC) impacts. Therefore, this study proposed an ESP construction framework that integrates multi-scenario patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) with ecosystem service value (ESV) evaluation based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Taking Hefei City as a case study, this study predicts land use types under the natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and economic development scenario (EDS) in 2030. Afterwards, ecological sources are identified by selecting four types of ecosystem services. Ecological corridors and nodes are identified by combining circuit theory and ecological resistance surfaces. The ESP is constructed based on a generic, landscape-scale connectivity-oriented perspective. The results showed that: (1) the LULC in Hefei City underwent significant changes between 2000 and 2020. The main manifestations are the reduction in cropland and increase in construction land. The expansion of construction land under EDS is the most significant. (2) The spatial distribution patterns of ESV for 2020 and three scenarios in 2030 exhibit marked heterogeneity. (3) According to the simulated scenarios in 2030, ecological corridors form a structure that is sparser in the central region and denser in the southern region; ecological pinch points are predominantly located within the Zipeng Mountain and the region situated to the south of Chaohu; ecological barrier points are mainly distributed at the edge of the built-up area and in the middle of long-distance ecological corridors. The ecological network structure under EPS has been expanded and reinforced. (4) Hefei City exhibits an ESP of “Four zones, Three screens, One network, Multiple nodes” as a whole, indicating an ecological security pattern with relatively higher potential ecological connectivity at the city scale. This study aims to provide scientific support for the development of Hefei City in society, economy and ecological security. Full article