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16 pages, 366 KB  
Article
Innovation Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China’s New Energy Enterprises: An Empirical Analysis
by Bei Li and Dongwei Li
Adm. Sci. 2026, 16(2), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci16020065 - 27 Jan 2026
Viewed by 124
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global energy transition and sustainable development, advancing the new energy industry has become a critical pathway for optimizing energy structures and achieving the dual carbon goals. However, while China’s new energy sector has experienced rapid growth, it has also [...] Read more.
Against the backdrop of global energy transition and sustainable development, advancing the new energy industry has become a critical pathway for optimizing energy structures and achieving the dual carbon goals. However, while China’s new energy sector has experienced rapid growth, it has also exposed a series of challenges, including insufficient innovation momentum, irrational resource allocation, and low conversion rates of R&D outcomes. To delve into the root causes and propose improvement pathways, this study selected 76 listed new energy enterprises from 2021 to 2023 as samples. It comprehensively employed the DEA-BCC model, Malmquist productivity index, and Tobit regression model to conduct empirical analysis across three dimensions: static, dynamic, and influencing factors. The findings revealed: firstly, during the study period, overall static efficiency remained low, with only about 32.90% of enterprises operating efficiently. Efficiency decomposition indicated that low and unstable pure technical efficiency constrained overall efficiency gains. In contrast, while scale efficiency was relatively high, its growth was sluggish, and some enterprises exhibited significant scale irrelevance. Secondly, dynamic total factor productivity exhibited fluctuating growth primarily driven by technological progress. However, declining technical efficiency—particularly the deterioration of scale efficiency—indicated that while the new energy industry advanced technologically and expanded in scale, its management capabilities had not kept pace. This mismatch among the three factors trapped the industry in a “high investment, low efficiency” dilemma. Thirdly, regression analysis of influencing factors indicated that corporate governance and market competitiveness were pivotal to innovation efficiency: the proportion of independent directors and revenue growth rate exerted significant positive impacts, while equity concentration showed a significant negative effect. Firm size had a weaker influence, and government support did not demonstrate a significant positive impact. Accordingly, this paper proposes pathways to enhance innovation efficiency in new energy enterprises, including optimizing corporate governance structures, formulating differentiated subsidy policies, and improving the innovation ecosystem. The findings of this study not only provide empirical references for the innovative development of the new energy industry but also offer theoretical support for relevant policy formulation. Full article
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31 pages, 12177 KB  
Article
Regional Finance and Environmental Outcomes: Empirical Evidence from Kazakhstan’s Regions
by Nurlan Satanbekov, Ainagul Adambekova, Nurbek Adambekov, Akbota Anessova and Zhuldyz Adambekova
Economies 2026, 14(2), 37; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14020037 - 24 Jan 2026
Viewed by 127
Abstract
This study investigates how financial growth connects to regional environmental performance within the framework of policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions. It uses a comprehensive panel dataset covering the period from 2010 to 2024. Although Kazakhstan has set ambitious targets, significant differences in [...] Read more.
This study investigates how financial growth connects to regional environmental performance within the framework of policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions. It uses a comprehensive panel dataset covering the period from 2010 to 2024. Although Kazakhstan has set ambitious targets, significant differences in financing levels and institutional development across regions pose substantial obstacles to achieving the target emissions reductions. Employing regional panel data, we use a random-effects model to assess links among banking loans, governmental funding metrics, employment statistics, and pollution measurements. Principal component analysis is utilized to tackle potential collinearity and reveal fundamental patterns. This approach reflects the inherent differences between regions rather than evolutionary shifts. The obtained empirical data demonstrate a significant relationship between high levels of bank loans and reduced carbon emissions. Regions with better access to financial services are better positioned to invest in energy efficiency, green infrastructure, and green innovation. Conversely, increases in regional budgets are associated with rising emissions, as tax revenue growth primarily comes from industries most dependent on fossil fuels. Dependence on the national budget for subsidies exacerbates distortions in regional budgets’ relationship with the regions’ transition to low-carbon development. The findings confirm the importance of regional financial management in determining the path to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Based on this, it is proposed to transform the mechanism of interbudgetary relations to grant regions greater financial autonomy and to localize credit resources at the regional level to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy in Kazakhstan. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)
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30 pages, 1905 KB  
Article
A System-Based Framework for Reducing the Digital Divide in Critical Mineral Supply Chains
by Shibo Xu, Nan Bai, Keun-sik Park and Miao Su
Systems 2026, 14(1), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14010053 - 5 Jan 2026
Viewed by 199
Abstract
The widening digital divide within the Global Critical Mineral Resource Supply Chain (GCMRS) 4.0 creates significant barriers to cross-border governance and operational efficiency. To quantify and address this disparity, this study identifies 20 Critical Success Factors (CSFs) through expert interviews with 15 industry [...] Read more.
The widening digital divide within the Global Critical Mineral Resource Supply Chain (GCMRS) 4.0 creates significant barriers to cross-border governance and operational efficiency. To quantify and address this disparity, this study identifies 20 Critical Success Factors (CSFs) through expert interviews with 15 industry specialists in South Korea. A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework integrating Fuzzy DEMATEL, Analytic Network Process (ANP), and the Choquet integral is developed to map causal relationships and determine factor weights. The empirical results reveal a distinct ‘technology-first’ dependency. Specifically, Scalable Technical Solutions and Cloud Computing Access emerge as the primary driving forces with the highest global weights, while Digital Investment Subsidies serve as the central hub for resource allocation. Unlike generic governance models, this study provides a quantifiable decision-making basis for policymakers. It demonstrates that bridging the hard infrastructure gap is a prerequisite for the effectiveness of soft collaborative mechanisms in the critical mineral sector. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Supply Chain Management)
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29 pages, 1222 KB  
Article
Electromobility in Developing Countries: Economic, Infrastructural, and Policy Challenges
by Amirhossein Hassani, Omar Mahmoud Elsayed Hussein Khatab, Adel Aazami and Sebastian Kummer
Future Transp. 2026, 6(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp6010009 - 4 Jan 2026
Viewed by 322
Abstract
Electromobility provides an effective solution for developing countries to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, enhance energy security, and increase environmental sustainability. The current study evaluates the feasibility of implementing electric vehicles (EVs) powered by renewable energy in developing countries. Based on qualitative methods, [...] Read more.
Electromobility provides an effective solution for developing countries to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, enhance energy security, and increase environmental sustainability. The current study evaluates the feasibility of implementing electric vehicles (EVs) powered by renewable energy in developing countries. Based on qualitative methods, including expert interviews, it discusses existing transportation systems, the benefits of EVs, and significant constraints such as poor infrastructure, high initial investment, and ineffective policy structures. Evidence further suggests that EV adoption is likely to bring considerable benefits, particularly in cities with high population densities, adequate infrastructure, and supportive regulations that facilitate rapid adoption. Countries like India and Kenya have reduced their fuel import bills and created new jobs. At the same time, cities such as Bogota and Nairobi have seen improved air quality through the adoption of electric public transit. However, the transition requires investments in charging infrastructures and improvements in power grids. Central to this is government backing, whether through subsidy or partnership. Programs like India’s Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME) initiative and China’s subsidy program are prime examples of such support. The study draws on expert interviews to provide context-specific insights that are often absent in global EV discussions, while acknowledging the limitations of a small, regionally concentrated sample. These qualitative findings complement international data and offer grounded implications for electromobility planning in developing contexts. It concludes that while challenges remain, tailored interventions and multi-party public–private partnerships can make the economic and environmental promise of electromobility in emerging markets a reality. Full article
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17 pages, 849 KB  
Article
Economic and Ecological Benefits of Thermal Modernization of Buildings Related to Financing from Aid Programs in Poland
by Janusz Adamczyk and Robert Dylewski
Energies 2026, 19(1), 260; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19010260 - 4 Jan 2026
Viewed by 327
Abstract
Improving the energy efficiency of buildings is a highly desirable investment in the context of implementing the sustainable development paradigm, as it reduces the building’s energy demand. Consequently, the economic costs of heating the building are diminished. Reducing the building’s negative environmental impact [...] Read more.
Improving the energy efficiency of buildings is a highly desirable investment in the context of implementing the sustainable development paradigm, as it reduces the building’s energy demand. Consequently, the economic costs of heating the building are diminished. Reducing the building’s negative environmental impact is also crucial. This article presents programs that subsidize thermal modernization investments for single-family buildings in Poland. Particular attention was paid to the Clean Air program. A methodology for the economic and ecological assessment of thermal modernization investments eligible for funding under this program was proposed. The methodology is based on the Net Present Value indicator, whereas the ecological analysis utilized the Life Cycle Assessment method. A case study was conducted for a model single-family building using the introduced methodology. The scope of the thermal modernization investment included replacing windows and doors, replacing the heat source, and thermal insulation of the vertical external walls. The analyzed thermal modernization investment brings substantial ecological benefits, significantly reducing the building’s negative environmental impact. Unfortunately, the economic viability for the investor is not so obvious and depends primarily on the level of subsidy. Full article
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20 pages, 953 KB  
Article
Hybrid Fuzzy Optimization Integrating Sobol Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation for Retail Decarbonization: An Investment Framework for Solar-Powered Coffee Machines in Taiwan’s Convenience Stores
by Yu-Feng Lin
Sustainability 2026, 18(1), 466; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18010466 - 2 Jan 2026
Viewed by 302
Abstract
This study develops a carbon emissions reduction strategy for solar-powered coffee machines in Taiwanese convenience stores, aiming to strike a balance between profitability and decarbonization. An integrated framework of the fuzzy nonlinear multi-objective programming (FNMOP) model, Sobol sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation [...] Read more.
This study develops a carbon emissions reduction strategy for solar-powered coffee machines in Taiwanese convenience stores, aiming to strike a balance between profitability and decarbonization. An integrated framework of the fuzzy nonlinear multi-objective programming (FNMOP) model, Sobol sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation was applied to quantify uncertainties in electricity supply, consumer demand, and investment costs. Solar-powered machines reduce annual CO2 emissions by 172–215 kg per store. Allocating 0.49–0.61% of coffee profits as subsidies shortens payback to [6.5, 9.375] years. Monte Carlo simulation confirms robustness with a 95% confidence interval of [5.8, 11.2] years, while urban stores achieve payback 18–25% faster. Sobol analysis identifies annual savings and net profit margins as key drivers. The framework demonstrates scalability and international applicability, providing empirical evidence for policymakers and retailers to accelerate the adoption of renewable energy in consumer-facing operations. Its methodological integration and consumer-side focus offer a replicable model for convenience store chains in high-density retail markets worldwide, with potential multiplier effects across sectors and supply chains. Full article
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27 pages, 2038 KB  
Article
Five-Stakeholder Collaboration in Power Battery Recycling Within Reverse Supply Chains: Threshold Analysis and Policy Recommendations via Evolutionary Game and System Dynamics
by Zhiping Lu, Zhengying Jin, Jiaying Qin and Yanyan Wang
Sustainability 2026, 18(1), 382; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18010382 - 30 Dec 2025
Viewed by 267
Abstract
The current retired recycling system suffers from “systemic coordination failure”, primarily due to ambiguous responsibility boundaries hindering interenterprise collaboration, unequal profit distribution discouraging technological innovation investment, and low participation from both consumers and recycling enterprises undermining the efficiency of recycling channels. However, the [...] Read more.
The current retired recycling system suffers from “systemic coordination failure”, primarily due to ambiguous responsibility boundaries hindering interenterprise collaboration, unequal profit distribution discouraging technological innovation investment, and low participation from both consumers and recycling enterprises undermining the efficiency of recycling channels. However, the simplified tripartite game models commonly adopted in existing research exhibit significant limitations in explaining and addressing the above practical challenges, as they fail to incorporate consumers and third-party recyclers as strategic decision-makers into the analytical framework. To address these issues, this study develops, for the first time, a five-party evolutionary game model involving governments, vehicle manufacturers, battery producers, third-party recyclers, and consumers within a reverse supply chain framework. We further employ system dynamics to simulate the dynamic evolution of stakeholder strategies. The results show that: (1) When tri-party synergistic benefits exceed 15, the system transitions from resource dissipation to circular regeneration. (2) Government subsidies reaching the threshold of 2 effectively promote low-carbon transformation across the industrial chain. (3) Bilateral synergistic benefits of 12 can stimulate green technological innovation and industrial upgrading. (4) Establishing a multi-stakeholder governance framework is key to enhancing resource circulation efficiency. This research provides quantitative evidence and policy implications for constructing an efficient and sustainable power battery recycling system. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Electronic Waste Management and Sustainability)
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5 pages, 182 KB  
Proceeding Paper
The Impact of CAP Investment Subsidies on Agricultural Productivity in Greece: A Time-Series Analysis
by Zisis C. Mandanas, Dimitrios P. Petropoulos and Nikolaos Apostolopoulos
Proceedings 2026, 134(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2026134006 - 30 Dec 2025
Viewed by 322
Abstract
This paper investigates how CAP investment subsidies influence agricultural productivity in Greece using time-series data from 2000 to 2023. The analysis focuses on whether subsidies intended to stimulate investment in agricultural infrastructure and technology have a tangible effect on productivity. Employing econometric methods [...] Read more.
This paper investigates how CAP investment subsidies influence agricultural productivity in Greece using time-series data from 2000 to 2023. The analysis focuses on whether subsidies intended to stimulate investment in agricultural infrastructure and technology have a tangible effect on productivity. Employing econometric methods such as the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Granger causality testing, this study explores the short- and long-term impacts of these subsidies. Findings suggest that CAP subsidies have a significant and positive influence on agricultural productivity, with more notable effects in regions that have adopted technological advancements. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers looking to optimise CAP reforms and ensure sustainable agricultural growth in Greece. Full article
36 pages, 2864 KB  
Article
Energy Savings, Carbon-Equivalent Abatement Cost, and Payback of Residential Window Retrofits: Evidence from a Heating-Dominated Mid-Latitude City—Gyeonggi Province, South Korea
by YeEun Jang, Jeongeun Park, Yeweon Kim and Ki-Hyung Yu
Buildings 2026, 16(1), 71; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16010071 - 24 Dec 2025
Viewed by 573
Abstract
This study presents an integrated ex-post evaluation of a municipal window-retrofit program in Goyang, Republic of Korea (heating-dominated, Dwa). Using field surveys and pre- and post-utility bills for 36 dwellings, mainly pre-2000 low-rise reinforced-concrete buildings, we normalize climate with HDD and CDD and [...] Read more.
This study presents an integrated ex-post evaluation of a municipal window-retrofit program in Goyang, Republic of Korea (heating-dominated, Dwa). Using field surveys and pre- and post-utility bills for 36 dwellings, mainly pre-2000 low-rise reinforced-concrete buildings, we normalize climate with HDD and CDD and prices with CPI-deflated tariffs to isolate the intrinsic effect of window replacement. Area-normalized indicators (e, η, DPB, NPV, AC) were computed. Average annual savings were 30.2 kWh per m2 per year (η ≈ 16 percent), consisting of 10.6 kWh per m2 per year of gas and 19.6 kWh per m2 per year of electricity (n = 36). The median discounted payback was 7.0 years. Under a 50 percent subsidy, about 80 percent of projects recovered private investment within 15 years and showed positive NPV with a median of about USD 4944. The electricity-tariff multiplier had the largest influence on cash flows and payback. The median abatement cost was about USD 352 per tCO2-eq. A portfolio view indicates that prioritizing low-cost cases maximizes total abatement, and that higher-cost cases merit design or cost review. Using the first post-retrofit year 2023, portfolio abatement is about 623 tCO2-eq per year. The framework jointly normalizes climate and price effects and yields policy-relevant estimates for heating-dominated contexts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Building Energy, Physics, Environment, and Systems)
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26 pages, 2485 KB  
Article
Beyond Subsidies: Economic Performance of Optimized PV-BESS Configurations in Polish Residential Sector
by Tomasz Wiśniewski and Marcin Pawlak
Energies 2025, 18(24), 6615; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18246615 - 18 Dec 2025
Viewed by 504
Abstract
This study examines the economic performance of residential photovoltaic systems combined with battery storage (PV-BESS) under Poland’s net-billing regime for a single-family household without subsidy support in 10-year operational horizon. These insights extend existing European evidence by demonstrating how net-billing fundamentally alters investment [...] Read more.
This study examines the economic performance of residential photovoltaic systems combined with battery storage (PV-BESS) under Poland’s net-billing regime for a single-family household without subsidy support in 10-year operational horizon. These insights extend existing European evidence by demonstrating how net-billing fundamentally alters investment incentives. The analysis incorporates real production data from selected locations and realistic household consumption profiles. Results demonstrate that optimal system configuration (6 kWp PV with 15 kWh storage) achieves 64.3% reduction in grid electricity consumption and positive economic performance with NPV of EUR 599, IRR of 5.32%, B/C ratio of 1.124 and discounted payback period of 9.0 years. The optimized system can cover electricity demand in the summer half-year by over 90% and reduce local network stress by shifting surplus solar generation away from midday peaks. Residential PV-BESS systems can achieve economic efficiency in Polish conditions when properly optimized, though marginal profitability requires careful risk assessment regarding component costs, durability and electricity market conditions. For Polish energy policy, the findings indicate that net-billing creates strong incentives for regulatory instruments that promote higher self-consumption, which would enhance the economic role of residential storage. Full article
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34 pages, 418 KB  
Article
The Role of Climate-Oriented Funding in Advancing Renewable Energy Transition Across the EU
by Gheorghița Dincă, Ioana-Cătălina Netcu and Camelia Ungureanu
Energies 2025, 18(24), 6616; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18246616 - 18 Dec 2025
Viewed by 342
Abstract
The shift to renewable energy is a key goal for the European Union as it aims for climate neutrality; however, the effectiveness of climate-focused funding instruments varies significantly across member states. This research investigates the influences of mitigation investments, R&D spending, environmental tax [...] Read more.
The shift to renewable energy is a key goal for the European Union as it aims for climate neutrality; however, the effectiveness of climate-focused funding instruments varies significantly across member states. This research investigates the influences of mitigation investments, R&D spending, environmental tax revenues, subsidies, GDP growth, and capital formation on renewable energy expansion within the EU-27, placing particular emphasis on the structural differences between Old Member States (OMS) and New Member States (NMS). The study utilizes robust long-run estimation techniques alongside causality analysis over a span of 13 years, from 2010–2023. The findings highlight notable distinctions among the EU-27, OMS, and NMS regions. While the EU-27 and OMS show that funds designated for climate mitigation and R&D are critical drivers of the clean energy transition, in the NMS, environmental taxes, subsidies, innovation, and gross fixed capital formation play vital roles in advancing this transition. Furthermore, economic development shows mixed results in achieving sustainable objectives, underscoring the necessity for climate-oriented funding and initiatives. Therefore, policy measures should focus on mitigation finance and innovation across the EU, while the design of subsidies and environmental tax structures must be tailored to each region to ensure a fair and expedited transition. Full article
18 pages, 484 KB  
Article
Emissions Intensity, Oil Rents, and Capital Formation in Gulf Cooperation Council Rentier States: Implications for the Energy Transition
by Nagwa Amin Abdelkawy
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11309; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411309 - 17 Dec 2025
Viewed by 215
Abstract
This paper investigates whether carbon emission intensity influences capital formation in rent-dependent economies, using the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a case study. In contrast to conventional growth models, the study tests carbon lock-in as a driver, rather than an outcome, of investment [...] Read more.
This paper investigates whether carbon emission intensity influences capital formation in rent-dependent economies, using the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a case study. In contrast to conventional growth models, the study tests carbon lock-in as a driver, rather than an outcome, of investment in rentier states and links it empirically to resource curse mechanisms. Using panel data for six GCC countries over 2000–2022, we estimate a fixed effects investment model and use System GMM as a robustness check. Results show that a one standard deviation increase in CO2 intensity is associated with a 2.27 percentage point increase in gross capital formation (GCF) (p < 0.01), consistent with carbon lock-in theory, while oil rents have a significant negative relationship with investment (coefficient = −0.271, p < 0.01), in line with resource curse dynamics. The study contributes by embedding carbon lock-in theory in a standard macro panel investment function, treating emissions intensity as a structural regressor alongside oil rents in the specific context of rentier states. A behavioural interpretation is also offered: high-carbon strategies persist because they continue to yield relatively high short-term returns under existing incentives, so investment systems tend to reinforce carbon-intensive pathways. These insights have implications for both theory and practice, suggesting that screening public projects by emissions intensity, greening sovereign wealth portfolios, and phasing out fossil subsidies may help break carbon-intensive investment inertia. Full article
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22 pages, 660 KB  
Article
Intergovernmental Transfers as Determinants of Municipal Fiscal Sustainability: A Review of Theory and Empirical Evidence from Polish Municipalities
by Krzysztof Kluza and Katarzyna Wójtowicz
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11284; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411284 - 16 Dec 2025
Viewed by 516
Abstract
Intergovernmental transfers play a crucial role in shaping the fiscal position of local governments, especially in countries where municipalities, such as those in Poland, exhibit a high dependence on central funding. Recent reforms and the increasing reliance on discretionary revenues transferred from the [...] Read more.
Intergovernmental transfers play a crucial role in shaping the fiscal position of local governments, especially in countries where municipalities, such as those in Poland, exhibit a high dependence on central funding. Recent reforms and the increasing reliance on discretionary revenues transferred from the central budget have motivated a closer examination of how these instruments influence local fiscal sustainability. This article analyses how different types of transfers—general subsidies and targeted grants—affect the fiscal sustainability of Polish municipalities across several dimensions, including autonomy, solvency, efficiency and economic resilience. Using panel data, five sets of models test the crowding-out effect, developmental impact, pro-cyclicality, fiscal discipline, and fiscal replacement mechanisms. Results show that general subsidies crowd out local tax revenues, particularly in less developed municipalities, while targeted grants strengthen the tax base in rural areas. Transfers have mixed effects: targeted grants strongly stimulate investment and support local development but tend to increase debt; general subsidies weaken local tax capacity and reduce fiscal autonomy, although they improve short-term fiscal discipline. In municipalities with limited fiscal independence, transfers act as short-term compensatory tools, fostering dependence on state aid rather than self-reliance. A macroeconomic crowding-out effect also appears, as higher transfers reduce private sector resources. Regarding fiscal discipline, equalization and compensatory subsidies decrease debt levels, whereas targeted grants can raise debt in urban municipalities with co-financing obligations. General subsidies show fiscal replacement effects, substituting local revenue sources. The findings provide insights for designing transfer systems that balance financial support with incentives for local autonomy and sustainable development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability)
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33 pages, 2339 KB  
Article
Transitioning to Hydrogen Trucks in Small Economies: Policy, Infrastructure, and Innovation Dynamics
by Aleksandrs Kotlars, Justina Hudenko, Inguna Jurgelane-Kaldava, Jelena Stankevičienė, Maris Gailis, Igors Kukjans and Agnese Batenko
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11272; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411272 - 16 Dec 2025
Viewed by 327
Abstract
Decarbonizing heavy-duty freight transport is essential for achieving climate neutrality targets. Although internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks currently dominate logistics, they contribute substantially to greenhouse gas emissions. Zero-emission alternatives, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (H2), provide different [...] Read more.
Decarbonizing heavy-duty freight transport is essential for achieving climate neutrality targets. Although internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks currently dominate logistics, they contribute substantially to greenhouse gas emissions. Zero-emission alternatives, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (H2), provide different decarbonization pathways; however, their relative roles remain contested, particularly in small economies. While BEVs benefit from technological maturity and declining costs, hydrogen offers advantages for high-payload, long-haul operations, especially within energy-intensive cold supply chains. The aim of this paper is to examine the gradual transition from ICE trucks to hydrogen-powered vehicles with a specific focus on cold-chain logistics, where reliability and energy intensity are critical. The hypothesis is that applying a system dynamics forecasting approach, incorporating investment costs, infrastructure coverage, government support, and technological progress, can more effectively guide transition planning than traditional linear methods. To address this, the study develops a system dynamics economic model tailored to the structural characteristics of a small economy, using a European case context. Small markets face distinct constraints: limited fleet sizes reduce economies of scale, infrastructure deployment is disproportionately costly, and fiscal capacity to support subsidies is restricted. These conditions increase the risk of technology lock-in and emphasize the need for coordinated, adaptive policy design. The model integrates acquisition and maintenance costs, fuel consumption, infrastructure rollout, subsidy schemes, industrial hydrogen demand, and technology learning rates. It incorporates subsystems for fleet renewal, hydrogen refueling network expansion, operating costs, industrial demand linkages, and attractiveness functions weighted by operator decision preferences. Reinforcing and balancing feedback loops capture the dynamic interactions between fleet adoption and infrastructure availability. Inputs combine fixed baseline parameters with variable policy levers such as subsidies, elasticity values, and hydrogen cost reduction rates. Results indicate that BEVs are structurally more favorable in small economies due to lower entry costs and simpler infrastructure requirements. Hydrogen adoption becomes viable only under scenarios with strong, sustained subsidies, accelerated station deployment, and sufficient cross-sectoral demand. Under favorable conditions, hydrogen can approach cost and attractiveness parity with BEVs. Overall, market forces alone are insufficient to ensure a balanced zero-emission transition in small markets; proactive and continuous government intervention is required for hydrogen to complement rather than remain secondary to BEV uptake. The novelty of this study lies in the development of a system dynamics model specifically designed for small-economy conditions, integrating industrial hydrogen demand, policy elasticity, and infrastructure coverage limitations, factors largely absent from the existing literature. Unlike models focused on large markets or single-sector applications, this approach captures cross-sector synergies, small-scale cost dynamics, and subsidy-driven points, offering a more realistic framework for hydrogen truck deployment in small-country environments. The model highlights key leverage points for policymakers and provides a transferable tool for guiding freight decarbonization strategies in comparable small-market contexts. Full article
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27 pages, 1020 KB  
Article
Path Exploration of Artificial Intelligence-Driven Green Supply Chain Management in Manufacturing Enterprises: A Study Based on Random Forest and Dynamic QCA Under the TOE Framework
by Yifei Cao, Lingfeng Hao, Zihan Zhang and Hua Zhang
Systems 2025, 13(12), 1120; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13121120 - 14 Dec 2025
Viewed by 658
Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is gradually integrating into the entire process of green supply chain management (GSCM), providing a systematic solution for enterprises to improve productivity and performance. This paper focuses on Chinese manufacturing enterprises, aiming to explore the multi-factor synergistic mechanism influencing [...] Read more.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is gradually integrating into the entire process of green supply chain management (GSCM), providing a systematic solution for enterprises to improve productivity and performance. This paper focuses on Chinese manufacturing enterprises, aiming to explore the multi-factor synergistic mechanism influencing differences in GSCM levels from a temporal perspective under the drive of AI. Based on 2019–2023 panel data of enterprises, this paper innovatively integrates the random forest algorithm with dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to reveal the configurational effects of technological, organizational, and environmental factors in enterprises’ GSCM practices. The findings demonstrate that no single factor is a necessary condition for enterprises to implement GSCM; configurational analysis identifies two driving models: “AI technology innovation-driven (Configuration 1 and Configuration 2)” and “strategic resource-driven (Configuration 3)”; Configuration 1 combines research and development (R&D) investment and green awareness among executives with the enabling role of government subsidies; Configuration 2 couples R&D Investment with strong funding capacity, again facilitated by the presence of government subsidies; Configuration 3 combines AI technology adoption and green awareness among executives, supported by the necessary funding capacity and government subsidies. Additionally, inter-group analysis reveals no significant temporal effect among configurations but shows phased evolutionary characteristics. This paper has thoroughly explored the complex paths for enhancing GSCM of manufactory enterprises under the influence of AI. It is recommended that the government refine and strengthen targeted subsidy policies to better support the adoption and integration of AI in advancing GSCM within the manufacturing sector. Concurrently, manufacturers must align technology, organizational structure, and external factors, specifically through core AI technology improvements, enhanced executive green awareness, and the mobilization of government and external funding. These advancements have led to high-level GSCM within enterprises, allowing them to achieve high-quality and sustainable development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Innovation Management and Digitalization of Business Models)
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