Search Results (3,334)

To address limitations such as short forecast periods, data collection challenges, insufficient understanding of physical mechanisms, and single-scale constraints, forecasting factors and their characteristics were analyzed across astronomical, global, and watershed scales. Forecasting factors were selected based on astronomical observations, ocean current predictions, traditional calendars, and agricultural proverbs, and their characteristics were quantitatively processed. A BP neural network optimized by the Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm (GWO-BP) was constructed, and the dataset derived from sample division of the Fengman Reservoir Basin was used to train the model for secondary fitting. The model successfully fit and predicted the annual inflow of the Fengman Reservoir Basin from 2013 to 2017. Through a comparison with the GWO–Support Vector Machine (GWO-SVM) model, results showed that the GWO-BP model exhibited superior predictive performance. This method integrates multi-scale, easily accessible, and quantifiable forecasting factors, facilitating the extension of long-term runoff forecasting applications within the river basin. Full article

Electric vehicle (EV) charging has become a key factor in grid integration, impact analysis, and the development of intelligent charging strategies. However, the rapid rise in EV adoption poses challenges for charging infrastructure and grid stability due to the inherently variable and uncertain charging behavior. Limited access to high-resolution, location-specific data further hinders accurate modeling, emphasizing the need for reliable, privacy-preserving tools to forecast EV-related grid impacts. This study introduces a comprehensive methodology to emulate real-world EV charging behavior using a real-time simulation environment. A physics-based EV charger model was developed on the Typhoon HIL platform, incorporating detailed electrical dynamics and control logic representative of commercial chargers. Simulation outputs, including active power consumption and state-of-charge evolution, were validated against field data captured via phasor measurement units, showing strong alignment across all charging phases, including SOC-dependent current transitions. Quantitative validation yielded an MAE of 0.14 and an RMSE of 0.36, confirming the model’s high accuracy. The study also reflects practical BMS strategies, such as early charging termination near 97% SOC to preserve battery health. Overall, the proposed real-time framework provides a high-fidelity platform for analyzing grid-integrated EV behavior, testing smart charging controls, and enabling digital twin development for next-generation electric mobility. Full article

The strategic goal of the transition to a low-carbon economy in Russia requires the active integration of forest-climatic projects into regional sustainable development strategies, especially for areas with high agricultural pressure such as the central forest-steppe of the European part of the Russian Federation. The region contains over 18 million hectares of forest land, which is approximately 2.1% of the area of Russian forests, and intensive agricultural development increases the need for innovative approaches to restoring forest ecosystems. The work uses indicators of the state forest register, data on 18 reforestation projects and 22 afforestation projects, and the results of forecasting the dynamics of greenhouse gas absorption until 2030. It is estimated that by 2030, the sequestration potential of the forests of the central forest-steppe can be increased by 28–30%, which will neutralize up to 12% of emissions from industrial enterprises in the region. In the paper, to unify the assessment, it is proposed to use the carbon intensity factor of investment costs, which, in a number of implemented projects, ranged from 1.2 to 2.7 RUB/1 kg CO₂ eq., reflecting the cost of achieving one ton of absorbed CO₂ equivalent. At ratios above 1, the economic value of the carbon units created exceeds investment costs by at least 20%. Environmental–economic modeling showed that with an increase in the forest cover of the region by 1% (180 thousand hectares), the annual absorption of CO₂ increases by approximately 0.9–1.1 million tons, and the increase in potential income from the sale of carbon units could amount to 1.6–2.2 billion RUB per year at the current price of 1.8–2 RUB/kg CO₂-eq. The use of an integral criterion of environmental and economic efficiency helps increase the transparency and investment-attractiveness of forest-climatic projects, as well as the effective integration of natural and climatic solutions into long-term strategies for the sustainable development of the Central Forest-Steppe of Russia. Full article

Smart grids (SGs) are becoming increasingly complex with the integration of communication, protection, and automation technologies. However, this digital transformation has introduced new vulnerabilities, especially false data injection attacks (FDIAs) and Denial of Service (DoS) attacks. FDIAs can subtly corrupt measurement data, misleading operators without triggering traditional bad data detection (BDD) methods in state estimation (SE), while DoS attacks disrupt the availability of sensor data, affecting grid observability. This paper presents a deep learning-based framework for detecting and localizing FDIAs, including under DoS conditions. A hybrid CNN, Transformer, and BiLSTM model captures spatial, global, and temporal correlations to forecast measurements and detect anomalies using a threshold-based approach. For further detection and localization, a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) model maps forecast errors to the compromised sensor locations, effectively complementing or replacing BDD methods. Unlike conventional SE, the approach is fully data-driven and does not require knowledge of grid topology. Experimental evaluation on IEEE 14–bus and 118–bus systems demonstrates strong performance for the FDIA condition, including precision of 0.9985, recall of 0.9980, and row-wise accuracy (RACC) of 0.9670 under simultaneous FDIA and DoS conditions. Furthermore, the proposed method outperforms existing machine learning models, showcasing its potential for real-time cybersecurity and situational awareness in modern SGs. Full article

With the significant increase in solar power generation’s proportion in power systems, the uncertainty of its power output poses increasingly severe challenges to grid operation. In recent years, solar forecasting models have achieved remarkable progress, with various developed models each exhibiting distinct advantages and characteristics. To address complex and variable geographical and meteorological conditions, it is necessary to adopt a multi-model fusion approach to leverage the strengths and adaptability of individual models. This paper proposes a photovoltaic power prediction framework based on multi-stage ensemble learning, which enhances prediction robustness by integrating the complementary advantages of heterogeneous models. The framework employs a three-level optimization architecture: first, a recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm based on LightGBM–XGBoost–MLP weighted scoring is used to screen high-discriminative features; second, mutual information and hierarchical clustering are utilized to construct a heterogeneous model pool, enabling competitive intra-group and complementary inter-group model selection; finally, the traditional static weighting strategy is improved by concatenating multi-model prediction results with real-time meteorological data to establish a time-period-based dynamic weight optimization module. The performance of the proposed framework was validated across multiple dimensions—including feature selection, model screening, dynamic integration, and comprehensive performance—using measured data from a 75 MW photovoltaic power plant in Inner Mongolia and the open-source dataset PVOD. Full article

Accurate forecasting of language service demand is essential for language industry planning and resource allocation, yet it remains challenging due to small sample sizes, noisy data, and nonlinear dynamics in industry-level time series. To enhance forecasting accuracy, this study proposes a novel hybrid forecasting framework, called the Sine Cosine Algorithm-optimized wavelet analysis-based new information priority nonhomogeneous discrete grey model (SCA–WA–NIPNDGM). By integrating wavelet-based denoising with the NIPNDGM, the model effectively extracts intrinsic signals and prioritizes recent observations to capture short-term trends while addressing nonlinear parameter estimation via heuristic optimization. Empirical studies are conducted across three high-demand sectors in China from 2000 to 2024, including manufacturing; water conservancy, environmental, and public facilities management; and wholesale and retail. The findings show that the proposed model displays superior performance to 11 benchmark grey models and five optimization algorithms across six evaluation metrics, achieving test Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values as low as 1.2%, with strong generalization, stable iterations, and fast convergence. These results underscore its effectiveness in forecasting complex time series and offer valuable insights for language service market planning under emerging AI-driven disruptions. Full article

This study addresses the critical need for accurate tourism demand (TD) forecasting in Bulgaria using economic indicators, developing robust predictive models to navigate post-pandemic market volatility. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed tourism’s vulnerability to systemic shocks, highlighting deficiencies in traditional forecasting approaches. Bulgaria’s tourism industry, characterized by strong seasonal variations and economic sensitivity, requires enhanced methodologies for strategic planning in uncertain environments. The research employs comprehensive comparative analysis of machine learning (ML) and deep machine learning (DML) methodologies. Monthly overnight stay data from Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute (2005–2024) were integrated with COVID-19 case data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Bulgarian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) variables for the same period. Multiple approaches were implemented including Prophet with external regressors, Ridge regression, LightGBM, and gradient boosting models using inverse MAE weighting optimization, alongside deep learning architectures such as Bidirectional LSTM with attention mechanisms and XGBoost configurations, as each model statistical significance was estimated. Contrary to prevailing assumptions about deep learning superiority, traditional machine learning ensemble approaches demonstrated superior performance. The ensemble model combining Prophet, LightGBM, and Ridge regression achieved optimal results with MAE of 156,847 and MAPE of 14.23%, outperforming individual models by 10.2%. Deep learning alternatives, particularly Bi-LSTM architectures, exhibited significant deficiencies with negative R² scores, indicating fundamental limitations in capturing seasonal tourism patterns, probable data dependence and overfitting. The findings, provide tourism stakeholders and policymakers with empirically validated forecasting tools for enhanced decision-making. The ensemble approach combined with statistical significance testing offers improved accuracy for investment planning, marketing budget allocation, and operational capacity management during economic volatility. Economic indicator integration enables proactive responses to market disruptions, supporting resilient tourism planning strategies and crisis management protocols. Full article

Ransomware attacks pose a serious threat to global cybersecurity, inflicting severe financial and operational damage on organizations, individuals, and critical infrastructure. Despite their pervasive impact, proactive measures to mitigate ransomware threats remain underdeveloped, with most efforts focused on reactive responses. Moreover, prior literature reveals a significant gap in systematic approaches for predicting such incidents. This research seeks to address this gap by employing time-series analysis to forecast ransomware attacks. Using 1880 ransomware incidents, we decompose the dataset into trend, seasonal, and residual components, fit a time-series model, and forecast future attacks. The results indicate that time-series analysis is useful for uncovering broad, structural patterns in ransomware data. To gain further insight into these results, we perform sub-analyses based on attacks targeting the top five sectors. The findings reveal reasonable predictive performance for ransomware attacks against government facilities and the healthcare and public health sector, with the latter showing an upward trend in attacks. By providing a predictive lens, our model equips organizations with actionable intelligence, enabling preemptive measures and enhanced situational awareness. Finally, this research underscores the importance of integrating time-series forecasting into cybersecurity strategies and seeks to pave the way for future advancements in predictive analytics for cyber threats. Full article

High energy-consuming industrial parks are characterized by high base-load-to-peak-valley ratios, overlapping production cycles, and megawatt-scale step changes, which significantly complicate short-term load forecasting. To tackle these challenges, this study proposes a novel forecasting framework that combines hierarchical multimodal decomposition with a hybrid deep learning architecture. First, Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) analysis is applied to identify key input features and eliminate redundancy. The load series is then decomposed in two stages: seasonal-trend decomposition uses the Loess (STL) isolates trend and seasonal components, while variational mode decomposition (VMD) further disaggregates the residual into multi-scale modes. This hierarchical approach enhances signal clarity and preserves temporal structure. A parallel neural architecture is subsequently developed, integrating an Informer network to model long-term trends and a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) to capture short-term fluctuations. Case studies based on real-world load data from a typical industrial park in northeastern China demonstrate that the proposed model achieves significantly improved forecasting accuracy and robustness compared to benchmark methods. These results provide strong technical support for fine-grained load prediction and intelligent dispatch in high energy-consuming industrial scenarios. Full article

The rapid global expansion of hydropower poses questions about the resilience and sustainability of riparian vegetation, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides a valuable means for monitoring long-term and spatially continuous changes in vegetation, offering insights into how dams influence RV dynamics worldwide. Here, we integrated satellite-derived environmental indicators, including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), to quantify and compare riparian vegetation trends upstream and downstream of dams globally. By applying paired linear regression analyses to pre- and post-construction NDVI time series, we identified dams associated with significant RV degradation following impoundment. Furthermore, we employed Gradient Boosting Regression Models (GBRM), calibrated using current observational data and driven by CMIP6 climate projections, to forecast global riparian vegetation trends through the year 2100 under various climate scenarios. Our analysis reveals that, although widespread vegetation degradation was not evident up to 2017—and many regions showed slight improvements—future projections under higher-emission pathways (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) indicate substantial RV declines after 2040, particularly in high-latitude forests, grasslands, and arid regions. Conversely, tropical and subtropical riparian forests are predicted to maintain stable or increasing NDVI under moderate emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6). These results highlight the potential for adaptive dam development strategies supported by continued satellite-based monitoring to help reduce climate-related risks to riparian vegetation in regions. Full article

This study presents the implementation and evaluation of a high-resolution operational forecasting system for the Tagus estuary (Portugal), focusing on inundation and water quality predictions to support estuarine management. Developed using the relocatable Water Information Forecast Framework (WIFF), the system integrates two implementations of SCHISM: a 2D barotropic model including wave–current interactions for flood-prone areas, and a 3D baroclinic model simulating salinity, temperature, and biogeochemical variables. Forecasts were assessed over six months using in situ and satellite near real-time observations. Results show that the operational models represent well water levels, waves, salinity, temperature, and water quality dynamics. Compared to a regional model, the local forecast system generally offers improved accuracy within the estuary due to higher spatial resolution and better representation of local dynamics. Several challenges remain, including uncertainties in oceanic and riverine boundary conditions and limited high-resolution near real-time observations to continuously assess and improve operational models. Furthermore, the absence of operational two-way coupling between regional and local models limits cross-scale integration of physical and biogeochemical processes. The forecasting system for the Tagus estuary demonstrates the potential of local high-resolution operational models as reliable, user-oriented tools for managing transitional water systems, and as core elements for coastal management. Full article

This study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with multiple variations of the Ata model, using a performance-based model selection strategy to enhance forecasting accuracy on the M3 and M4 competition datasets. For each time series, seven versions of the Ata model are generated by adjusting level and trend parameters, and the version with the lowest in-sample symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) is selected. To improve robustness and prevent overfitting, the median-performing Ata model is also included. These selected models’ forecasts are then combined with ARIMA outputs through optimized weighting schemes tailored to the characteristics of each series. Given the varying frequencies (e.g., yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly) and diverse lengths of time series, a grid search algorithm is employed to determine the best hybrid combination for each frequency group. The model is applied in a series-specific manner, allowing it to adapt to different seasonal, trend, and irregular patterns. Extensive empirical results demonstrate that the hybrid model outperforms its individual components and traditional benchmarks across all frequency categories. It ranked first in the M3 competition and achieved second place in the M4 competition based on the official error metric, the sMAPE and Overall Weighted Average (OWA), respectively. The results highlight the framework’s adaptability and scalability for complex, heterogeneous time series environments. Full article

Renewable energy systems like solar and wind power are the main source of sustainable energy production; however, their intermittent nature produces challenges for grid integration, so they require realistic forecast models. This study developed a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model to predict solar irradiance and wind power over a 24 h horizon using a 240 h (10-day) dataset. The dataset, being hourly measurements of solar irradiance (W/m²) and wind speed (m/s), was divided and normalized into 193 sequences of 24 h each, with 80% for training and 20% for validation. Two LSTM models, each consisting of 100 hidden units, were trained using the Adam optimizer to predict the next 24 h for each of the variables using forget, input, and output gates to capture temporal dependencies. The results have shown that the model accurately forecasted solar irradiance with a clear day–night cycle, while forecasts of wind speed revealed higher variability, although the PV system was better than the wind system due to low wind speeds. The results reveal that the LSTM model can effectively predict renewable energy output by predicting the wind speed and Solar Irradiance, which are the main parameters that control the output power of wind turbines and PV power, respectively. Full article

Surface ozone pollution poses a significant threat to human health and ecosystems. However, its highly variable spatiotemporal distribution, especially at hourly scales across China, complicates effective risk management. This variability presents substantial challenges for accurate estimation and forecasting, underscoring the importance of evaluating current hourly surface ozone estimation methods. Therefore, this study collaboratively evaluated the performance of chemical transport model simulations and satellite-based estimates of hourly surface ozone concentrations over mainland China in 2019. Using data from 3185 ground monitoring stations operated by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, as well as six independent observation sites in Hong Kong, Xianghe, Nam Co, Akedala, Longfengshan, and Waliguan, this study found that both datasets exhibited systematic biases and lacked spatiotemporal consistency. The Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry simulation results exhibited an average relative bias of 23.17%, generally overestimated ozone concentrations in high-altitude regions, but outperformed the satellite-based estimates at the independent sites, while consistently underestimating ozone concentrations in densely populated urban areas. In contrast, the satellite-based estimates performed better in regions with dense monitoring sites, with mean biases typically within 10% of observations, but their accuracy was limited in remote areas due to sparse ground-based calibration. It is particularly noteworthy that both datasets showed deficiencies in capturing extremely high-value events, nighttime ozone variations, and dynamic transport processes, underscoring challenges in the representation of photochemical processes in the model and in the design of satellite estimation algorithms. The results highlight the importance of optimizing model parameterization schemes, improving satellite estimation algorithms, and integrating multi-source data to enhance the accuracy and stability of hourly ozone estimates. This study provides multi-scale quantitative insights into the relative strengths and limitations of different ozone estimation methods, laying a solid scientific foundation for future data integration, regional air quality management, and policy development. Full article

Maritime transportation requires reliable navigational safety communications to ensure vessel safety and operational efficiency. The Maritime Single Window (MSW) enables vessels to submit all maritime data digitally without human intervention. NAVTEX (Navigational Telex) messages provide navigational warnings, meteorological warnings and forecasts, piracy, and search and rescue information that require integration into automated MSW system. However, NAVTEX transmissions experience message corruption when Forward Error Correction (FEC) mechanisms fail, marking unrecoverable characters with asterisks. Current standards require discarding messages exceeding 4% error rates, resulting in safety information loss. Traditional human interpretation of corrupted messages creates limitations that prevent automated MSW integration. This paper presents the application of Masked Language Modeling (MLM) with Transformer encoders for automated NAVTEX message restoration. Our approach treats asterisk characters as masked tokens, enabling bidirectional context processing to reconstruct corrupted characters. We evaluated MLM against dictionary-matching and n-gram models using 69,658 NAVTEX messages with corruption ranging from 1% to 33%. MLM achieved 85.4% restoration rate versus 44.4–64.0% for statistical methods. MLM maintained residual error rates below the 4% threshold for initial corruption up to 25%, while statistical methods exceeded this limit at 10%. This automated restoration capability supports MSW integration while preserving critical safety information during challenging transmission conditions. Full article