Search Results (148)

Photovoltaic panels have become a promising solution for generating renewable energy and reducing our reliance on fossil fuels by capturing solar energy and converting it into electricity. The effectiveness of this conversion depends on several factors, such as the quality of the solar panels and the amount of solar radiation received in a specific region. This makes accurate solar irradiance forecasting essential for planning and managing efficient solar power systems. This study examines the application of machine learning (ML) models for accurately predicting global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using a three-year dataset from six distinct photovoltaic stations: NELHA, ULL, HSU, RaZON+, UNLV, and NWTC. The primary aim is to identify optimal shared features for GHI prediction across multiple sites using a 30 min time shift based on autocorrelation analysis. Key features identified for accurate GHI prediction include direct normal irradiance (DNI), diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI), and solar panel temperatures. The predictions were performed using tree-based algorithms and ensemble learners, achieving $R^2$ values exceeding 95% at most stations, with NWTC reaching 99%. Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) performed best at NELHA, NWTC, and RaZON, while Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) excelled at ULL and UNLV. CatBoost was optimal for HSU. The impact of time-shifting values on performance was also examined, revealing that larger shifts led to performance deterioration, though MLP performed well under these conditions. The study further proposes a stacking ensemble approach to enhance model generalizability, integrating the strengths of various models for more robust GHI prediction. Full article

Congenital hypothyroidism (CH) is a leading preventable cause of neurocognitive impairment. Its incidence appears to be rising in several countries. We analysed 27 years of newborn-screening data (1997–2023) from the largest Chilean screening centre, covering 3,225,216 newborns (51.1% of national births), to characterise temporal trends and potential drivers of CH incidence. Annual CH incidence was modelled with Prais–Winsten regression to correct for first-order autocorrelation; additional models assessed trends in gestational age, sex, biochemical markers, and aetiological subtypes. We identified 1550 CH cases, giving a mean incidence of 4.9 per 10,000 live births and a significant yearly increase of 0.067 per 10,000 (95 % CI 0.037–0.098; p < 0.001). Mild cases (confirmation TSH < 20 mU/L) rose (+0.89 percentage points per year; p = 0.002). The program’s recall was low (0.05%). Over time, screening and diagnostic TSH values declined, total and free T4 concentrations rose, gestational age at diagnosis fell, and a shift from thyroid ectopy toward hypoplasia emerged; no regional differences were detected. The sustained increase in CH incidence, alongside falling TSH thresholds and growing detection of in situ glands, suggests enhanced recognition of milder disease. Ongoing surveillance should integrate environmental, iodine-nutrition, and genetic factors to clarify the causes of this trend. Full article

This study focuses on the Triangle of Central China and investigates the spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, and impacts of population aging on regional sustainable development from 2000 to 2020. The study adopts an innovative two-scale analytical framework at the prefecture and district/county level, integrating spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Geodetector model, and geographically weighted regression. The results show a significant acceleration in population aging across the study area, accompanied by pronounced spatial clustering, particularly in western Hubei and the Wuhan metropolitan area. Over time, the spatial distribution has evolved from a relatively dispersed pattern to one of high concentration. Key drivers of the spatial heterogeneity of aging include economic disparities, demographic transitions, and the uneven spatial allocation of public services such as healthcare and education. These aging patterns profoundly affect the region’s potential for sustainable development. Accordingly, the study proposes a multi-scale collaborative governance strategy: At the prefecture level, efforts should focus on promoting the coordinated development of the silver economy and optimizing the spatial redistribution of healthcare resources; At the district and county level, priorities should include strengthening infrastructure, curbing the outflow of young labor, and improving access to basic public services. By integrating spatial analysis techniques with sustainable development policy recommendations, this study provides a basis for scientifically measuring, understanding, and managing demographic transitions. This is essential for achieving long-term socioeconomic sustainability in rapidly aging regions. Full article

As China’s economy grows and travel demand increases, its aviation market has evolved to become the second-largest in the world. This study presents a pioneering analysis of China’s aviation network evolution (1990–2024) by integrating temporal dynamics into a network density matrix theory, addressing critical gaps in prior static network analyses. Unlike conventional studies focusing on isolated topological metrics, we introduce a triangulated methodology: ① a network sequence analysis capturing structural shifts in degree distribution, clustering coefficient, and path length; ② novel redundancy–entropy coupling quantifying complexity evolution beyond traditional efficiency metrics; and ③ economic-network coordination modeling with spatial autocorrelation validation. Key innovations reveal previously unrecognized dynamics: ① Time-embedded density matrices ($\rho$) demonstrate how sparsity balances information propagation efficiency ($\eta$) and response diversity, resolving the paradox of functional yet sparse connectivity. ② Redundancy–entropy synergy exposes adaptive trade-offs. Entropy ($H$) rises 18% (2000–2024), while redundancy ($R$) rebounds post-2010 (0.25→0.33), reflecting the strategic resilience enhancement after early efficiency-focused phases. ③ Economic-network coupling exhibits strong spatial autocorrelation ($Moran’sI>0.16$, $p<0.05$), with eastern China achieving “primary coordination”, while western regions lag due to geographical constraints. The empirical results confirm structural self-organization. Power-law strengthening, route growth exponentially outpacing cities, and clustering ($C$) rising 16% as the path length ($L$) increases, validating the hierarchical hub formation. These findings establish aviation networks as dynamically optimized systems where economic policies and topological laws interactively drive evolution, offering a paradigm shift from descriptive to predictive network management. Full article

(1) Background: Physiological responses, such as heart rate and heart rate variability, have been increasingly utilized to monitor, detect, and predict mental stress. This review summarizes and synthesizes previous studies which analyzed the impact of mental stress on heart activity as well as mathematical, statistical, and visualization methods employed in such analyses. (2) Methods: A total of 119 articles were reviewed following the Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines. Non-English documents, studies not related to mental stress, and publications on machine learning techniques were excluded. Only peer-reviewed journals and conference proceedings were considered. (3) Results: The studies revealed that heart activities and behaviors changed during stressful events. The majority of the studies utilized descriptive statistical tests, including t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and correlation analysis, to assess the statistical significance between stress and non-stress events. However, most of them were performed in controlled laboratory settings. (4) Conclusions: Heart activity shows promise as an indicator for detecting stress events. This review highlights the application of time series techniques, such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), detrended fluctuation analysis, and autocorrelation plots, to study heart rate rhythm or patterns associated with mental stress. These models analyze physiological data over time and may help in understanding acute and chronic cardiovascular responses to stress. Full article

High-frequency (HF) communication is critical for applications such as over-the-horizon positioning and ionospheric detection. However, precise time-delay estimation in complex HF channels faces significant challenges from multipath fading, Doppler shifts, and noise. This paper proposes a Modulation Signal-based Adaptive Time-Delay Estimation (MATE) algorithm, which effectively decouples carrier and modulation signals and integrates phase-locked loop (PLL) and delay-locked loop (DLL) techniques. By leveraging the autocorrelation properties of 8PSK (Eight-Phase Shift Keying) signals, MATE compensates for carrier frequency deviations and mitigates multipath interference. Simulation results based on the Watterson channel model demonstrate that MATE achieves an average time-delay estimation error of approximately 0.01 ms with a standard deviation of approximately 0.01 ms, representing a 94.12% reduction in mean error and a 96.43% reduction in standard deviation compared to the traditional Generalized Cross-Correlation (GCC) method. Validation with actual measurement data further confirms the robustness of MATE against channel variations. MATE offers a high-precision, low-complexity solution for HF time-delay estimation, significantly benefiting applications in HF communication systems. This advancement is particularly valuable for enhancing the accuracy and reliability of time-of-arrival (TOA) detection in HF-based sensor networks and remote sensing systems. Full article

Sparse borehole sampling at contaminated sites results in sparse and unevenly distributed data on soil pollutants. Traditional interpolation methods may obscure local variations in soil contamination when applied to such sparse data, thus reducing the interpolation accuracy. We propose an adaptive graph convolutional network with spatial autocorrelation (ASI-GCN) model to overcome this challenge. The ASI-GCN model effectively constrains pollutant concentration transfer while capturing subtle spatial variations, improving soil pollution characterization accuracy. We tested our model at a coking plant using 215 soil samples from 15 boreholes, evaluating its robustness with three pollutants of varying volatility: arsenic (As, non-volatile), benzo(a)pyrene (BaP, semi-volatile), and benzene (Ben, volatile). Leave-one-out cross-validation demonstrates that the ASI-GCN_RC_G model (ASI-GCN with residual connections) achieves the highest prediction accuracy. Specifically, the R for As, BaP, and Ben are 0.728, 0.825, and 0.781, respectively, outperforming traditional models by 58.8% (vs. IDW), 45.82% (vs. OK), and 53.78% (vs. IDW). Meanwhile, their RMSE drop by 36.56% (vs. Bayesian_K), 38.02% (vs. Bayesian_K), and 35.96% (vs. IDW), further confirming the model’s superior precision. Beyond accuracy, Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis reveals that most predicted areas exhibit low uncertainty, with only a few high-pollution hotspots exhibiting relatively high uncertainty. Further analysis revealed the significant influence of pollutant volatility on vertical migration patterns. Non-volatile As was primarily distributed in the fill and silty sand layers, and semi-volatile BaP concentrated in the silty sand layer. At the same time, volatile Ben was predominantly found in the clay and fine sand layers. By integrating spatial autocorrelation with deep graph representation, ASI-GCN redefines sparse data 3D mapping, offering a transformative tool for precise environmental governance and human health assessment. Full article

With the growth of Internet of Things (IoT) business demands, NB-IoT integrating low earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication systems is considered a crucial component for achieving global coverage of IoT networks in the future. However, the long propagation delay and significant Doppler frequency shift of the satellite-to-ground link pose substantial challenges to the uplink and downlink synchronization in LEO satellite-based NB-IoT networks. To address this challenge, we first propose a Multiple Segment Auto-correlation (MSA) algorithm to detect the downlink Narrow-band Primary Synchronization Signal (NPSS), specifically tailored for the large Doppler frequency shift of LEO satellites. After detection, downlink synchronization can be realized by determining the arrival time and frequency of the NPSS. Then, to complete the uplink synchronization, we propose a position-based scheme to obtain the Timing Advance (TA) values and pre-compensated Doppler shift value. In this scheme, we formulate a time difference of arrival (TDOA) equation using the arrival times of NPSSs from different satellites or at different times as observations. After solving the TDOA equation using the Chan method, the uplink synchronization is completed by obtaining the TA values and pre-compensated Doppler shift value from the terminal position combined with satellite ephemeris. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed scheme is verified in an Iridium satellite constellation. Compared to conventional GNSS-assisted methods, the approach proposed in this paper reduces terminal power consumption by 15–40%. Moreover, it achieves an uplink synchronization success rate of over 98% under negative SNR conditions. Full article

Cropland abandonment (CA) has become a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in metropolitan suburbs where urban expansion and cropland preservation often conflict. This study examines the Chengdu Directly Administered Zone of the Tianfu New Area in Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, utilizing high-precision vector data from China’s 2019–2023 National Land Survey to identify abandoned croplands through land use change trajectory analysis. By integrating kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographically weighted regression modeling, we quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of CA and the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors in the study area. The results demonstrate an average annual abandonment rate of approximately 8%, exhibiting minor fluctuations but significant spatial clustering characteristics, with abandonment hotspots concentrated in peri-urban areas that gradually expanded toward urban cores over time, while exurban regions showed lower abandonment rates. Cropland quality and the aggregation index were identified as key restraining factors, whereas increasing slope and land development intensity were found to elevate abandonment risks. Notably, distance to roads displayed a negative effect, contrary to conventional understanding, revealing that policy feedback mechanisms induced by anticipated land expropriation along transportation corridors serve as important drivers of suburban abandonment. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing resilient urban–rural land allocation, curbing speculative abandonment, and exploring integrated “agriculture + ecology + cultural tourism” utilization models for abandoned lands. The findings offer valuable insights for balancing food security and sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions worldwide, particularly providing empirical references for developing countries addressing the dilemma between urban expansion and cropland preservation. Full article

This study presents a novel application of a hybrid regression–kriging (RK) and machine learning (ML) framework to impute missing tropospheric NO₂ data from the TROPOMI satellite over Taiwan during the winter months of January, February, and December 2022. The proposed approach combines geostatistical interpolation with nonlinear modeling by integrating RK with ML models—specifically comparing gradient boosting regression (GBR), random forest (RF), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN)—to determine the most suitable auxiliary predictor. This structure enables the framework to capture both spatial autocorrelation and complex relationships between NO₂ concentrations and environmental drivers. Model performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (r²), computed against observed TROPOMI NO₂ column values filtered by quality assurance criteria. GBR achieved the highest validation r² values of 0.83 for January and February, while RF yielded 0.82 and 0.79 in January and December, respectively. These results demonstrate the model’s robustness in capturing intra-seasonal patterns and nonlinear trends in NO₂ distribution. In contrast, models using only static land cover inputs performed poorly (r² < 0.58), emphasizing the limited predictive capacity of such variables in isolation. Interpretability analysis using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method revealed temperature as the most influential meteorological driver of NO₂ variation, particularly during winter, while forest cover consistently emerged as a key land-use factor mitigating NO₂ levels through dry deposition. By integrating dynamic meteorological variables and static land cover features, the hybrid RK–ML framework enhances the spatial and temporal completeness of satellite-derived air quality datasets. As the first RK–ML application for TROPOMI data in Taiwan, this study establishes a regional benchmark and offers a transferable methodology for satellite data imputation. Future research should explore ensemble-based RK variants, incorporate real-time auxiliary data, and assess transferability across diverse geographic and climatological contexts. Full article

The spatial morphology of traditional villages stems from prolonged interactions between socio-economic conditions and the regional natural environment under specific historical contexts. Over time, these settlements have acquired distinct spatial patterns through continuous adaptation to their surrounding ecosystems. Nevertheless, accelerated urbanization now exerts dual pressures—disrupting the spatial order and degrading natural ecosystems. In this context, an integrated analysis of the relationship between village spatial patterns and ecological conditions is essential for elucidating their formative mechanisms. The Xiangjiang River Basin is Hunan’s cultural core, and the spatial distribution of traditional villages is directly related to environmental variables. This study uses bivariate spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression to investigate the relationship between the spatial distribution of traditional villages and ecological environmental appropriateness. The findings indicate the following: (1) The spatial distribution density of traditional villages in the Xiangjiang River Basin exhibits a negative correlation with the Ecological Environment Index (EEI), as evidenced by a Moran’s I value of −0.228. This suggests that traditional villages tend to be less concentrated in areas with a higher ecological suitability. (2) Among natural factors, the Relief Degree of Land Surface (RDLS), the Temperature Humidity Index (THI), and the Land Cover Index (LCI) display positive correlations with village density, with regression coefficients of 0.865, 0.003, and 11.599, respectively. In contrast, the Water Resource Index (WRI) shows a negative correlation, with a coefficient of −6.448, and (3) the impact of ecological suitability factors on village distribution is spatially heterogeneous: microtopographic variation is the primary driver in flat terrains, whereas the ecological carrying capacity exerts a greater influence in mountainous areas. These findings clarify the role of ecological suitability in shaping the spatial characteristics of traditional villages and provide a scientific basis for developing protection strategies that integrate ecological sustainability with cultural–heritage preservation. Full article

We present a model of classical binary time series derived from a matrix product state (MPS) Ansatz widely used in one-dimensional quantum systems. We discuss how this quantum Ansatz allows us to generate classical time series in a sequential manner. Our time series are built in two steps: First, a lower-level series (the driving noise or the increments) is created directly from the MPS representation, which is then integrated to create our ultimate higher-level series. The lower- and higher-level series have clear interpretations in the quantum context, and we elaborate on this correspondence with specific examples such as the spin-1/2 Ising model in a transverse field (ITF model), where spin configurations correspond to the increments of discrete-time, discrete-level stochastic processes with finite or infinite autocorrelation lengths, Gaussian or non-Gaussian limit distributions, nontrivial Hurst exponents, multifractality, asymptotic self-similarity, etc. Our time series model is a parametric model, and we investigate how flexible the model is in some synthetic and real-life calibration problems. Full article

Storm surge forecasting presents a significant challenge for coastal resilience, particularly in typhoon-prone regions such as southeastern China, where compound flooding events lead to substantial socioeconomic losses. Although artificial intelligence (AI) models have shown strong potential in storm surge prediction, their inherent “black-box” nature limits both their interpretability and operational trust. In this study, we integrate a Vision Transformer (ViT) model with an explainable AI (XAI) method—specifically, Shapley value analysis (SHAP)—to develop an interpretable, high-performance storm surge forecasting framework. The baseline ViT model demonstrates excellent predictive skill, achieving spatiotemporal correlation coefficients exceeding 0.90 over a 12 h lead time. However, it exhibits systematic underestimations in topographically complex regions, such as semi-enclosed bays (e.g., up to 0.06 m). SHAP analysis reveals that the model primarily relies on the autocorrelation of historical surge levels rather than external wind forcing—contrary to the conventional physical understanding of storm surge dynamics. Guided by these insights, we introduce the surge time difference (ΔZ/Δt) as an explicit input feature to enhance the model’s physical representation. This modification yields substantial improvements: during the critical first hour of forecasting—a key window for disaster mitigation—the RMSE is reduced from 0.01 m to 0.005 m, while the correlation coefficient increases from 0.92 to 0.98. This study bridges the gap between data-driven forecasting and physical interpretability, offering a transparent and trustworthy framework for next-generation intelligent storm surge prediction. Full article

The simulation of the transport properties of confined, low-dimensional fluids can be performed efficiently by means of multi-particle collision (MPC) dynamics with suitable thermal-wall boundary conditions. We illustrate the effectiveness of the method by studying the dimensionality effects and size-dependence of thermal conduction, since these properties are of crucial importance for understanding heat transfer at the micro–nanoscale. We provide a sound numerical evidence that the simple MPC fluid displays the features previously predicted from hydrodynamics of lattice systems: (1) in 1D, the thermal conductivity $\kappa$ diverges with the system size L as $\kappa \sim L^{1/3}$ and its total heat current autocorrelation function $C\left(t\right)$ decays with the time t as $C\left(t\right)\sim t^{-2/3}$; (2) in 2D, $\kappa$ diverges with L as $\kappa \sim \ln \left(L\right)$ and its $C\left(t\right)$ decays with t as $C\left(t\right)\sim t^{-1}$; (3) in 3D, its $\kappa$ is independent with L and its $C\left(t\right)$ decays with t as $C\left(t\right)\sim t^{-3/2}$. For weak interaction (the nearly integrable case) in 1D and 2D, there exists an intermediate regime of sizes where kinetic effects dominate and transport is diffusive before crossing over to the expected anomalous regime. The crossover can be studied by decomposing the heat current in two contributions, which allows for a very accurate test of the predictions. In addition, we also show that, upon increasing the aspect ratio of the system, there exists a dimensional crossover from 2D or 3D dimensional behavior to the 1D one. Finally, we show that an applied magnetic field renders the transport normal, indicating that pseudomomentum conservation is not sufficient for the anomalous heat conduction behavior to occur. Full article

Amid the global urbanization process, addressing the spatial carrying capacity constraints of historic urban districts and enhancing sustainable tourism vitality has become a critical issue in urban renewal research. This study takes Suzhou Old City as a case study and innovatively constructs a dynamic spatiotemporal analytical framework to examine the relationship between tourism facility attractiveness and tourism vitality in historic districts. This study integrates multi-source spatiotemporal data and applies factor analysis, weighted kernel density estimation (KDE), spatial autocorrelation analysis, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to systematically investigate the spatial distribution patterns of tourism facilities and elucidate their multidimensional driving mechanisms on tourism vitality. The findings reveal a generally positive correlation between tourism attractiveness and tourism vitality. However, significant temporal and spatial variations exist, with different types of tourism facilities demonstrating distinct attractiveness patterns at different times of the day. These variations underscore the intrinsic link between visitor behavior and regional functionality as well as the structural contradictions within historic districts. This study not only advances theoretical insights into the spatial optimization of tourism facilities and tourism vitality enhancement but also provides scientific evidence and policy recommendations for improving facility distribution, revitalizing historic districts, and promoting sustainable urban development. Full article