Search Results (59)

Climate change amplifies heat wave effects on outdoor thermal comfort by increasing their frequency, duration, and intensity. The urban heat island effect worsens heat risks in cities and impacts resilience. Nature-based solution (NBS) with tree plantation was reported as an effective mitigation measure. This simulation study, by the well-validated ENVI-met model, aimed to investigate the impact of different tree planting strategies and building parameters on urban heat risk mitigation and microclimate during a typical hot summer day. Hypothetical skyscrapers and super high-rise buildings were assumed in the study site located in southern China. Adopting meteorological inputs from a typical year, the simulation results revealed that both mean radiant temperature (T_mrt) and physiological equivalent temperature (PET) were elevated (T_mrt > 60 °C and PET > 50 °C) in early afternoon in sunlit areas. Three mitigation approaches with different tree planting locations were investigated. While all approaches demonstrated effective cooling (PET down to <35 °C) in the proximity of trees, a superior approach for mitigating the heat risks was not evident. Within the building array, the shade of bulky structures also lowered T_mrt and PET to a thermally comfortable level in the late afternoon. Combining open-space tree planting with optimized building designs is recommended to mitigate heat risks and enhance urban resilience while promoting outdoor activities and their health benefits. Full article

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. The study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns. Full article

Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms have long been used by architects to find objective solutions to complex building problems involving trade-offs implicit in sustainable building design. At a larger scale, urban designers have created a variety of tools to improve sustainability in urban-and-larger scale design. However, to date, fewer studies have focused on improving sustainability outcomes at the “in between” scale of the neighborhood and urban site. Existing scholarship on optimization at this scale has tended to take a narrow view of sustainability. We seek to expand the implementation of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to this sometimes overlooked scale while taking a broad view of sustainability which includes social, environmental, and economic design factors. In doing so, we argue this optimization method is uniquely well suited to help designers balance the sometimes competing demands of multiple axes of sustainability which are applicable to design at this larger-than-building scale. In demonstrating the application of such an algorithm to a hypothetical problem in Chicago, we find the method offers a promising way of narrowing potential design solutions. Finally, we discuss the suitability of the solutions generated, the virtues and shortcomings of the method, and offer areas for future study. Full article

Analyzing irrigation patterns to promote efficient water use in urban areas is challenging. Analysis of irrigation by remote sensing (AIRS) combines multispectral aerial imagery, evapotranspiration data, and ground-truth measurements to overcome these challenges. We demonstrate AIRS on eight neighborhoods in Weber County, Utah, using 0.6 m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) and 0.07 m drone imagery, reference evapotranspiration (ET), and water use records. We calculate the difference between the actual and hypothetical water required for each parcel and compare water use over three time periods (2018, 2021, and 2023). We find that the quantity of overwatering, as well as the number of customers overwatering, is decreasing over time. AIRS provides repeatable estimates of irrigated area and irrigation demand that allow water utilities to track water user habits and landscape changes over time and, when controlling for other variables, see if water conservation efforts are effective. In terms of image analysis, we find that (1) both NAIP and drone imagery are sufficient to measure irrigated area in urban settings, (2) the selection of a threshold value for the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) becomes less critical for higher-resolution imagery, and (3) irrigated area measurement can be enhanced by combining NDVI with other tools such as building footprint extraction, object classification, and deep learning. Full article

Climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of weather systems, increasing the risk of inundation in urban areas. To mitigate these risks, not only rivers but also entire catchments need to be managed, and the use of infiltration and retention units needs to be expanded. The ability to evaluate the effects of promoting infiltration and retention in catchments using distributed hydrological models, clarify the three-dimensional behavior of exfiltration from catchments into natural base soils, and parameterize this flow as a one-dimensional hypothetical water flux is essential. Using VGFlow2D (Forum8) and field observations, numerical analyses were conducted to parametrize the flux and assess the features of q/Ks values, representing the volume of three-dimensional water exfiltration from stormwater inlet bases into natural soils relative to the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) of the soils. The findings were integrated into the hydrological model Infoworks ICM (Innovyze) by adding a single parameter, the “exfiltration loss rate”, to each inlet without increasing computational demands. The obtained q/Ks values were compared to previously reported values, and variations were evaluated using infiltration theory. Full article

Understanding climate change and land use impacts is crucial for mitigating environmental degradation. This study assesses the environmental vulnerability of the Doce River Basin for 2050, considering future climate change and land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios. Factors including slope, elevation, relief dissection, precipitation, temperature, pedology, geology, urban distance, road distance, and LULC were evaluated using multicriteria analysis. Regional climate models Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios were employed. The Land Change Modeler tool simulated 2050 LULC changes and hypothetical reforestation of legal reserve (RL) areas. Combining two climate and two LULC scenarios resulted in four future vulnerability scenarios. Projections indicate an over 300 mm reduction in average annual precipitation and an up to 2 °C temperature increase from 2020 to 2050. Scenario 4 (RCP 8.5 and LULC for 2050 with reforested RLs) showed the greatest basin area in the lowest vulnerability classes, while scenario 3 (RCP 4.5 and LULC for 2050) exhibited more high-vulnerability areas. Despite the projected relative improvement in environmental vulnerability by 2050 due to reduced rainfall, the complexity of associated relationships must be considered. These results contribute to mitigating environmental damage and adapting to future climatic conditions in the Doce River Basin. Full article

The rapid increase in the global population is contributing to the urgent challenges we face in ensuring the sustainability of our planet. This demographic shift, which gained momentum in the 1990s, is closely linked to a surge in natural disasters, both in terms of their frequency and severity. The quest for resources and improved quality of life, including the need for housing and essential services, has compounded these challenges. With the world’s population projected to double by 2050, and approximately two-thirds of this population expected to reside in urban areas, we are facing a complex web of interconnected issues that will significantly magnify the impacts of climate change-induced disasters. It is imperative that we build resilient cities capable of withstanding and adapting to these changes. However, the growing complexity of urban services and the necessity for integrated management raise questions about the preparedness of these resilient cities to comprehend and address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change. In response to these critical concerns, this study endeavors to address the intersection of resilience and climate change. We propose the development of a Smart Resilient City Assessment Framework, comprising two core components: resilience re-evaluation and smartness evaluation. Each component consists of eight essential steps. The culmination of these steps results in a semi-quantitative index that accurately reflects the city’s position regarding resilience and smartness in the face of climate change-related disasters. To demonstrate the framework’s practicality and suitability, we present results from a hypothetical scenario focusing on water supply management, a critical aspect of climate change adaptation. The framework equips city managers with the necessary tools to re-evaluate their cities’ resilience, evaluate their capacity to address climate change-induced challenges, and make informed decisions on integrating resilience and smart solutions to pave the way for a more sustainable and climate-resilient future. Full article

Post-earthquake fire is considered as a catastrophic secondary disaster to personal and property safety, especially in complex rail transit station. This is primarily attributed to intricate infrastructure, densely populated floors, and the unrestricted layout of these areas. The aim of this study is to evaluate the evacuation capacity of complex railway stations under post-earthquake fires, and provide sustainable recommendations for building design. In this article, an evacuation assessment of a complex rail transit station under the post-earthquake fire for sustainable buildings was conducted from the internal environment and external rescue based on Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Fire Dynamic Simulation (FDS). The internal environment evacuation assessment simulation experiments were conducted in six hypothetical high-risk scenarios. In addition, the external rescue assessment was based on investigation of the route and the required rescue time during different periods of holidays and workdays. The results show that (1) The influence caused by different sizes of fire area in the power distribution room is smaller than those in the train at the platform floor. (2) In fire scenarios with the same fire area but different fire locations, the temperature is more affected than the CO concentration in the power distribution room. (3) It shows slight differences between single-floor fire and double-floor fire on evacuation of small area fire in power distribution room. Meanwhile, optimized design recommendations are proposed to reduce the risk of emergency evacuation in both internal and external environments of rail transit stations for sustainable future buildings, which include strategically locating the power distribution room away from public areas, installing fire-resistant doors around the room, increasing the quantity of smoke detectors and alarms with regular maintenance, minimizing the size of the power distribution room, developing specific emergency plans for train fires, and incorporating small fire stations in urban planning near complex public buildings to mitigate post-earthquake road obstruction challenges. Full article

For the hypothetical reconstruction of architectural heritage, there are still no scientific standards of reference concerning their sharing and documentation. Recent international initiatives established the basis to address this problem; however, still, much work needs to be done in order to systematise good practices for the process of reconstruction and its dissemination. This contribution aims to take a step forward in the analysis and visualisation of uncertainty. Some authors have suggested various approaches to visualise uncertainty for single buildings; however, case studies at the urban scale are rarely investigated. This research proposes an improved source-based multi-feature approach aimed at analysing and visualising (through false-colour shading) the uncertainty of hypothetical 3D digital models of urban areas. The assessment of uncertainty is also quantified qualitatively by using newly defined formulas which calculate the average uncertainty weighted on the volume of the 3D model. This methodology aims to improve the objectiveness, unambiguity, transparency, reusability, and readability of hypothetical reconstructive 3D models, and its use is exemplified in the case study of the hypothetical reconstruction of Piazza delle Erbe in Verona, a project presented in the form of a docufilm at EXPO 2015 in Milan. Full article

Coastal flood risk and sea-level rise require decisions on investment in coastal protection and, in some cases, the relocation of urban areas. Models that formalize the relations between flooding costs, protective investments, and relocation can improve the analysis of the processes and issues involved and help to support decision-making better. In this paper, an agent-based model of a coastal city is represented in NetLogo. This model is based on the VIABLE modeling framework and describes adaptive dynamic agent behavior in a changing system. The hypothetical city faces damage caused by gradually rising sea levels and subsequent extreme sea-level events. To mitigate these risks, an “urban planner” agent has two adaptation measures at their disposal: developing coastal defenses or, as a more extreme measure, relocating vulnerable areas inland. As the simulation progresses and the decisions change with rising sea levels, the agent alters investments in these two measures to increase its value function, resulting in dynamic reactive behavior. Additionally, gradual sea-level rise is implemented in various modes, along with extreme sea-level events that cause severe short-term damage. The results of simulations under these modes and with multiple scenarios of agent action are presented. On average, agent behavior is quite reactive under limited foresight. Individual simulations yield a ‘priming’ effect when comparing different timings of extreme sea-level events, wherein an earlier extreme event primes the agent to adapt and thus be better prepared for subsequent events. Agent success with adaptation is also found to be sensitive to the costs involved, and these varying degrees of adaptation success are quantified using three parameters of adaptation success. Full article

In the present work, we investigate the possibility that long-range airborne transport of infectious aerosols could initiate an epidemic outbreak at distances downwind beyond one hundred kilometers. For this, we have developed a simple atmospheric transport box model, which, for a hypothetical case of a COVID-19 outbreak, was compared to a more sophisticated three-dimensional transport-dispersion model (HYSPLIT) calculation. Coupled with an extended Wells–Riley description of infection airborne spread, it shows that the very low probability of outdoor transmission can be compensated for by high numbers and densities of infected and susceptible people in the source upwind and in the target downwind, respectively, such as occur in large urban areas. This may result in the creation of a few primary cases. It is worth pointing out that the probability of being infected remains very small at the individual level. Therefore, this process alone, which depends on population sizes, geography, seasonality, and meteorology, can only “trigger” an epidemic, which could then spread via the standard infection routes. Full article

In 2013, a slope slide took place at the Santana-AP channel that links to the Lower Amazon River’s North Channel, resulting in the sudden collapse of a substantial section of the Port of Santana and its infrastructure. This area houses liquid bulk terminals and pipelines with high pollution potential. The objective of the research is to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of an eventual oil spill in the very short term using a numerical hydrodynamic simulation model coupled with that of pollutant dispersion. The SisBaHiA^® software, experimentally calibrated using acoustic methods (ADCP), was used to generate hypothetical scenarios in these areas with a substantial risk of landslides. Two hydrological scenarios stand out in the simulations: (a) November S-1 (dry) and (b) May S-2 (rainy). In S-1, the plume dispersion was higher during flood tides S-1a and S-1b, reaching 4 h urban slope areas, river mouths, tributaries (Matapi and Vila Nova), and environmental protection areas. At S-2, the plume spread was greater during the ebb tides S-2c and S-2d, affecting Macapá’s water supply system 12 h after the accident. The scenarios suggest the existence of high risks associated with the study hypotheses. The dispersion of the plume is directly proportional to the flow, indicating that local hydrodynamics is probably the most relevant dispersive factor. We conclude that the mitigation time for more severe effects is critical in the first 4 h because the coastal geographic feature tends to keep the plume in the Santana channel. Full article

Due to the rapid urbanization of China, residential areas and residents in small towns exhibit dual and complex urbanization patterns and characteristics. The “one-size-fits-all” approach to programming public service facilities has led to inefficient use of idle facilities and the frequent use of facilities that are not integrated into the public service system. Therefore, an investigation of programming logic based on residents’ needs within the complex urbanization patterns and characteristics of small towns is urgently required. This study distinguishes between rural and nonrural facilities, using the Kano model to evaluate residents’ hypothetical satisfaction with the provision of facilities or lack thereof. Based on the “rural and nonrural” facility need coupling model, four stages of urbanization were identified. Using the Better–Worse coefficient and the chi-square test, this study analyzes residents’ cognitive needs and population attributes across various stages of urbanization. Moreover, the study examines the “residential area–resident facility” matching relationship. Ultimately, a “required + optional item” public service facility guidance-control system based on the matching of human–land urbanization is proposed to improve the current programming system for public service facilities. This system provides a theoretical basis for improving the public service level in small towns and ensuring optimally relevant regulations. Full article

Earthquakes have caused tremendous losses worldwide. Though unpredictable, comprehensive assessment of their impact on urban areas can facilitate effectiveness in mitigation strategies. This paper builds a spatial general equilibrium (SCGE) model for Shelby County, Tennessee, an area located in the most active seismic zone in the central and eastern U.S. Starting from the building, lifeline and transportation damages, this paper also develops means by which such damages can be integrated into the SCGE model for prompt effect estimation. Using novel approaches to represent substitution and shifting behaviors intra-regionally within the county, the model estimated a total of loss over $8 billion in domestic supply due to a hypothetical earthquake. Compared with the outcomes from the model without these behaviors, the magnitude of the losses is smaller in the model with these behaviors. This implies the resistance, resourcefulness and flexibility from economic resilience, as the level of physical damages do vary intra-regionally. Interestingly, although the percentage of losses in domestic supply varies almost linearly with the percentage loss in physical damage intra-regionally, the losses in employment are relatively evenly distributed. This also emphasizes the importance of the shifting and substitution behaviors which make the model profoundly spatial. Full article

Dams are expensive technical constructions that ensure food production, sustain farmers’ income, and cover a large percentage of urban water supply demands. However, the threat of a dam break flood, which can be extremely dangerous for the local society, should be taken into account, and proactive mitigation measures should be planned. Towards this direction, dam break modelling and flood hazard assessment are essential for developing flood crisis management and evacuation plans. In this study, a hypothetical case of failure of the Papadia dam in the Florina Regional Unit in northern Greece is examined. Two scenarios of failure were considered: overtopping and piping. A two-dimensional numerical model for the two failure scenarios was used to simulate the dam break process and flood wave routing using HEC-RAS software. A sensitivity analysis of the mesh size and breach parameters was performed to better understand their impact on the critical outputs of the simulation model. Flood hazard maps were produced in GIS environment based on water depth and velocity criteria. Furthermore, two classification approaches were adopted to assess the flood hazard using the product of water depth and velocity. The results showed that the extent of the inundated area could affect most of the study area and could cause severe damage to agricultural activities. Full article