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Search Results (190)

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Keywords = hydro-economic modeling

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29 pages, 4312 KB  
Article
Distributionally Robust Optimization-Based Planning of an AC-Integrated Wind–Photovoltaic–Hydro–Storage Bundled Transmission System Considering Wind–Photovoltaic Uncertainty and Correlation
by Tu Feng, Xin Liao and Lili Mo
Energies 2026, 19(2), 389; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19020389 - 13 Jan 2026
Viewed by 190
Abstract
This paper investigates the planning problem of AC-integrated wind–photovoltaic–hydro–storage (WPHS) bundled transmission systems. To effectively capture the uncertainty and interdependence in renewable power outputs, a Copula-enhanced distributionally robust optimization (DRO) framework is developed, enabling a unified treatment of stochastic and correlated renewable generation [...] Read more.
This paper investigates the planning problem of AC-integrated wind–photovoltaic–hydro–storage (WPHS) bundled transmission systems. To effectively capture the uncertainty and interdependence in renewable power outputs, a Copula-enhanced distributionally robust optimization (DRO) framework is developed, enabling a unified treatment of stochastic and correlated renewable generation within the system planning process. First, a location and capacity planning model based on DRO for WPHS generation bases is formulated, in which a composite-norm ambiguity set is constructed to describe the uncertainty of renewable resources. Second, the Copula function is employed to characterize the nonlinear dependence structure between wind and photovoltaic (PV) power outputs, providing representative scenarios and initial probability distribution (PD) support for the construction of a bivariate ambiguity set that embeds coupling information. The resulting optimization problem is solved using the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. In addition, an evaluation metric termed the transmission corridor utilization rate (TCUR) is proposed to quantitatively assess the efficiency of external AC transmission planning schemes, offering a new perspective for the evaluation of regional power transmission strategies. Finally, simulation results validate that the proposed model achieves superior performance in terms of system economic efficiency and TCUR. Full article
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34 pages, 1919 KB  
Review
Life Cycle Optimization of Circular Industrial Processes: Advances in By-Product Recovery for Renewable Energy Applications
by Kyriaki Kiskira, Sofia Plakantonaki, Nikitas Gerolimos, Konstantinos Kalkanis, Emmanouela Sfyroera, Fernando Coelho and Georgios Priniotakis
Clean Technol. 2026, 8(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/cleantechnol8010005 - 5 Jan 2026
Viewed by 522
Abstract
The global shift toward renewable energy and circular economy models requires industrial systems that minimize waste and recover value across entire life cycles. This review synthesizes recent advances in by-product recovery technologies supporting renewable energy and circular industrial processes. Thermal, biological, chemical/electrochemical, and [...] Read more.
The global shift toward renewable energy and circular economy models requires industrial systems that minimize waste and recover value across entire life cycles. This review synthesizes recent advances in by-product recovery technologies supporting renewable energy and circular industrial processes. Thermal, biological, chemical/electrochemical, and biotechnological routes are analyzed across battery and e-waste recycling, bioenergy, wastewater, and agri-food sectors, with emphasis on integration through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), techno-economic analysis (TEA), and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) coupled to process simulation, digital twins, and artificial intelligence tools. Policy and economic frameworks, including the European Green Deal and the Critical Raw Materials Act, are examined in relation to technology readiness and environmental performance. Hybrid recovery systems, such as pyro-hydro-bio configurations, enable higher resource efficiency and reduced environmental impact compared with stand-alone routes. Across all technologies, major hotspots include electricity demand, reagent use, gas handling, and concentrate management, while process integration, heat recovery, and realistic substitution credits significantly improve life cycle outcomes. Harmonized LCA-TEA-MCDA frameworks and digitalized optimization emerge as essential tools for scaling sustainable, resource-efficient, and low-impact industrial ecosystems consistent with circular economy and renewable energy objectives. Full article
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3 pages, 125 KB  
Editorial
Hydro-Economic Models for Managing Sustainable Water Resources
by Joaquín Melgarejo and Borja Montano
Water 2025, 17(24), 3578; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243578 - 17 Dec 2025
Viewed by 314
Abstract
Understanding water in the twenty-first century requires acknowledging that it can no longer be analysed from a single disciplinary perspective [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydro-Economic Models for Sustainable Water Resources Management)
33 pages, 2755 KB  
Review
A Review of Direct Recycling Processes for Lithium-Ion Battery Cells
by Michał Łach, Agnieszka Przybek, Piotr Duda and Piotr Bielaczyc
Materials 2025, 18(24), 5608; https://doi.org/10.3390/ma18245608 - 13 Dec 2025
Viewed by 1152
Abstract
In recent years, circular economy principles have become a key paradigm in the design and evaluation of industrial processes, including recycling technologies. Direct recycling of used lithium-ion batteries is attracting particular attention, as it can significantly reduce energy consumption, reagent costs, and the [...] Read more.
In recent years, circular economy principles have become a key paradigm in the design and evaluation of industrial processes, including recycling technologies. Direct recycling of used lithium-ion batteries is attracting particular attention, as it can significantly reduce energy consumption, reagent costs, and the carbon footprint of the entire process compared to traditional hydro- and pyrometallurgical methods. This paper provides an overview of the current state of knowledge, synthesizes contemporary methods of Li-ion battery cell recycling, and presents the most important achievements in the field of direct recycling, with particular emphasis on the regeneration and re-leaping of cathode materials, and discusses the implementation and economic premises. Key challenges and research gaps are also identified, including the need to use computational modeling (CFD/DEM, kinetic and data-driven models) to optimize the deactivation, separation, and regeneration stages. This review concludes that direct recycling has the potential to become the leading circular economy pathway for Li-ion batteries, provided that quality standardization and process modeling tools are developed in parallel. Full article
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9 pages, 232 KB  
Proceeding Paper
Sustainable Municipal Sewerage System Solution: A Case Study of Ropice
by Vojtěch Václavík, Lech Kocyan and Tomáš Dvorský
Eng. Proc. 2025, 116(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2025116014 - 28 Nov 2025
Viewed by 359
Abstract
This article deals with the design of a technically, legislatively, and economically balanced sewerage system for the municipality of Ropice, which has long lacked a central sanitary sewer system. On the basis of the analysis of the territorial conditions, hydro-technical calculations, and legislative [...] Read more.
This article deals with the design of a technically, legislatively, and economically balanced sewerage system for the municipality of Ropice, which has long lacked a central sanitary sewer system. On the basis of the analysis of the territorial conditions, hydro-technical calculations, and legislative requirements, two potential solutions are compared—a decentralized domestic WWTP and a central separate sewerage system with a treatment plant. The final concept favors the central solution in order to ensure operational reliability, sustainability, and the possibility of using grants. This study provides a model example of an applicable solution for rural settlements with similar wastewater management problems. Full article
28 pages, 3595 KB  
Article
Optimization Tool of Hybrid Energy Systems Toward a New Integrated Solution to Improve the Fish Sector’s Effectiveness
by Nicolas Soehlemann, Modesto Pérez-Sánchez, Oscar E. Coronado-Hernández, Aonghus McNabola, António Quintino and Helena M. Ramos
Water 2025, 17(22), 3242; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17223242 - 13 Nov 2025
Viewed by 1328
Abstract
A techno-economic-environmental assessment tool was tailored to a fish sector case study. The fish sector, combined with two renewable components (wind and hydro), was analysed, and sensitivity analyses were carried out to integrate other renewables in a specifically developed optimization model (i.e., HY4RES-AHS). [...] Read more.
A techno-economic-environmental assessment tool was tailored to a fish sector case study. The fish sector, combined with two renewable components (wind and hydro), was analysed, and sensitivity analyses were carried out to integrate other renewables in a specifically developed optimization model (i.e., HY4RES-AHS). The model used an evolutionary method and resulted in the following conclusions: Scenario 2 excels financially, with the highest IRR (42%), shortest payback (4 years), and lowest investment (EUR 14,500), though it suffers from high energy losses (27.4%) due to a limited grid feed-in (120 kW). Scenario 4 is the most sustainable, with the highest SSR (97.8%) and SCR (63.4%) and lowest grid emissions (12.83 t CO2 eq.), supported by 600 kW PV and strong biomass use, but it has the lowest NPV (EUR 2241) and longest payback (25 years). Scenario 3 offers the best overall balance, achieving the highest NPV (EUR 741,293), solid IRR (20%), low energy losses (2.8%), and strong SSR (94%). Scenarios 5 and 7 prohibit grid feed-in, resulting in the highest energy losses (46.7% and 48.4%) and poor sustainability. Scenario 6 is financially strong (NPV EUR 602,280) but lacks biomass and biogas, reducing system resilience and autonomy. In summary, Scenario 2 is cost-efficient, Scenario 4 leads to sustainability, and Scenario 3 exhibits balanced performance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water-Energy Nexus)
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22 pages, 10609 KB  
Article
Fault Diagnosis and Location Method for Stator-Winding Single-Phase Grounding of Large Generator Based on Stepped-Frequency Pulse Injection
by Binghui Lei, Shuai Xu, Yang Liu, Weiguo Zu, Mingtao Yu, Yanxun Guo, Lianghui Dong and Zhiping Cheng
Sensors 2025, 25(22), 6875; https://doi.org/10.3390/s25226875 - 11 Nov 2025
Viewed by 457
Abstract
Ensuring the safe operation of large hydro-generators is essential for energy supply and economic development. Stator-winding single-phase grounding faults are among the most common failures in such generators. Conventional protection methods—such as fundamental voltage protection, third-harmonic voltage saturation, and low-frequency injection—lack fault location [...] Read more.
Ensuring the safe operation of large hydro-generators is essential for energy supply and economic development. Stator-winding single-phase grounding faults are among the most common failures in such generators. Conventional protection methods—such as fundamental voltage protection, third-harmonic voltage saturation, and low-frequency injection—lack fault location capability and cannot assess the fault severity. This paper proposes a stepwise variable-frequency pulse injection method for fault diagnosis and location in large hydro-generator stator windings. A finite element model of a salient-pole hydro-generator is established to analyze magnetic flux density and electromotive force distributions under normal and fault conditions, from which fault characteristics are derived. Equivalent circuit models suitable for low- and high-frequency pulse injection are developed. A bidirectional pulse injection circuit and algorithm are designed to identify the fault phase via terminal current vector characteristics, diagnose the faulty branch based on leakage loop equivalent inductance, and locate the fault point using voltage–current signal slopes. Simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed diagnostic approach. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Fault Diagnosis & Sensors)
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28 pages, 2466 KB  
Article
Insights from Hydro-Economic Modeling for Climate Resilience in the Nazas–Aguanaval Watershed in Mexico
by David-Eduardo Guevara-Polo, Carlos Patiño-Gomez, Josué Medellin-Azuara and Benito Corona-Vasquez
Water 2025, 17(21), 3183; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17213183 - 6 Nov 2025
Viewed by 1089
Abstract
Agriculture uses 80% of global water resources, driving several water management challenges across the world. These challenges require the exchange of effective practices. We found that California’s Tulare Lake Basin (TLB) and Mexico’s Nazas–Aguanaval watershed share key features, leading us to propose the [...] Read more.
Agriculture uses 80% of global water resources, driving several water management challenges across the world. These challenges require the exchange of effective practices. We found that California’s Tulare Lake Basin (TLB) and Mexico’s Nazas–Aguanaval watershed share key features, leading us to propose the TLB as a model of climate resilience. After contrasting the policies for TLB with those for Nazas–Aguanaval, we found that no constrained pricing policy proposal exists for the Nazas–Aguanaval watershed. We apply a hydro-economic model using Positive Mathematical Programming to support an incentive structure for reducing water use in agriculture while maximizing profits. The optimal crop policy could reduce water demand by 20%, with a trade-off of an 11% reduction in profits. This would save 185.4 hm3/year, which represents 90% of the volume required for an ongoing infrastructure project for urban water supply in the watershed. Additionally, implementing a price of 14 USD/dam3 could increase the irrigation district’s revenue, boosting farmers’ profits by up to 16% and district revenue by up to 134%. Our results demonstrate the benefits of applying Positive Mathematical Programming in a semiarid watershed to support water and agriculture policy. This research is a starting point for increasing the climate resilience of watersheds under water and financial stress. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimization–Simulation Modeling of Sustainable Water Resource)
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38 pages, 5289 KB  
Article
Forecasting Renewable Scenarios and Uncertainty Analysis in Microgrids for Self-Sufficiency and Reliability: Estimation of Extreme Scenarios for 2040 in El Hierro (Spain)
by Lucas Álvarez-Piñeiro, César Berna-Escriche, Paula Bastida-Molina and David Blanco-Muelas
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(21), 11815; https://doi.org/10.3390/app152111815 - 5 Nov 2025
Viewed by 781
Abstract
This study evaluates the feasibility of fully renewable energy systems on El Hierro, the smallest and most isolated Canary Archipelago Island (Spain), contributing to the broader effort to decarbonize the European economy. By 2040, the island’s energy demand is projected to reach 80–110 [...] Read more.
This study evaluates the feasibility of fully renewable energy systems on El Hierro, the smallest and most isolated Canary Archipelago Island (Spain), contributing to the broader effort to decarbonize the European economy. By 2040, the island’s energy demand is projected to reach 80–110 GWh annually, assuming full economic decarbonization. Currently, El Hierro faces challenges due to its dependence on fossil fuels and inherent variability of renewable sources. To ensure system reliability, the study emphasizes the integration of renewable and storage technologies. Two scenarios are modeled using HOMER Pro 3.18.4 software with probabilistic methods to capture variability in generation and demand. The first scenario, BAU, represents the current system enhanced with electric vehicles. While the second, Efficiency, incorporates energy efficiency improvements and collective mobility policies. Both prioritize electrification and derive an optimal generation mix based on economic and technical constraints, to minimize Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE). The approach takes advantage of El Hierro’s abundant solar and wind resources, complemented by reversible pumped hydro storage and megabatteries. Fully renewable systems can meet demand reliably, producing about 30% energy surplus with an LCOE of roughly 10 c€/kWh. The final BAU scenario includes 53 MW of solar PV, 16 MW of wind, and a storage system of 40 MW–800 MWh. The Efficiency scenario has 42 MW of solar PV, 11.5 MW of wind, and 35 MW–550 MWh of storage. Uncertainty analysis indicates that maintaining system reliability requires an approximate 10% increase in both installed capacity and costs. This translates into an additional 7 MW of solar PV and 6 MW–23.5 MWh of batteries in the BAU, and 6 MW and 4 MW–16 MWh in the Efficiency. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Forecasting Techniques and Methods for Energy Systems)
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20 pages, 2972 KB  
Article
Multi-Stage Adaptive Robust Scheduling Framework for Nonlinear Solar-Integrated Transportation Networks
by Puyu He, Jie Jiao, Yuhong Zhang, Yangming Xiao, Zhuhan Long, Hanjing Liu, Zhongfu Tan and Linze Yang
Energies 2025, 18(21), 5841; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215841 - 5 Nov 2025
Viewed by 440
Abstract
The operation of modern power networks is increasingly exposed to overlapping climate extremes and volatile system conditions, making it essential to adopt scheduling approaches that are resilient as well as economical. In this study, a two-stage stochastic formulation is advanced, where indicators of [...] Read more.
The operation of modern power networks is increasingly exposed to overlapping climate extremes and volatile system conditions, making it essential to adopt scheduling approaches that are resilient as well as economical. In this study, a two-stage stochastic formulation is advanced, where indicators of system adaptability are embedded directly into the optimization process. The objective integrates standard operating expenses—generation, reserve allocation, imports, responsive demand, and fuel resources—with a Conditional Value-at-Risk component that reflects exposure to rare but damaging contingencies, such as extreme heat, severe cold, drought-related hydro scarcity, solar output suppression from wildfire smoke, and supply chain interruptions. Key adaptability dimensions, including storage cycling depth, activation speed of demand response, and resource ramping behavior, are modeled through nonlinear operational constraints. A stylized test system of 30 interconnected areas with a 46 GW demand peak is employed, with more than 2000 climate-informed scenarios compressed to 240 using distribution-preserving reduction techniques. The results indicate that incorporating risk-sensitive policies reduces expected unserved demand by more than 80% during compound disruptions, while the increase in cost remains within 12–15% of baseline planning. Pronounced spatiotemporal differences emerge: evening reserve margins fall below 6% without adaptability provisions, yet risk-adjusted scheduling sustains 10–12% margins. Transmission utilization curves further show that CVaR-based dispatch prevents extreme flows, though modest renewable curtailment arises in outer zones. Moreover, adaptability provisions promote shallower storage cycles, maintain an emergency reserve of 2–3 GWh, and accelerate the mobilization of demand-side response by over 25 min in high-stress cases. These findings confirm that combining stochastic uncertainty modeling with explicit adaptability metrics yields measurable gains in reliability, providing a structured direction for resilient system design under escalating multi-hazard risks. Full article
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31 pages, 8105 KB  
Article
Multi-Criteria Decision-Making for Hybrid Renewable Energy in Small Communities: Key Performance Indicators and Sensitivity Analysis
by Helena M. Ramos, Praful Borkar, Oscar E. Coronado-Hernández, Francisco Javier Sánchez-Romero and Modesto Pérez-Sánchez
Energies 2025, 18(21), 5665; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215665 - 28 Oct 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 710
Abstract
The increasing decentralization of energy systems calls for robust frameworks to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of hybrid renewable configurations at the community scale. This study presents an integrated methodology that combines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), sensitivity analysis, and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making to [...] Read more.
The increasing decentralization of energy systems calls for robust frameworks to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of hybrid renewable configurations at the community scale. This study presents an integrated methodology that combines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), sensitivity analysis, and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making to assess hybrid systems in Castanheira de Pera, a small community in central Portugal. Fourteen configurations (C1–C14) integrating hydropower, solar PV, wind, and battery storage were simulated using HOMER Pro 3.16.2, PVsyst 8.0.16, Python 3.14.0, and Excel under both wet and dry hydrological conditions. A gate-controlled hydro-buffering model was applied to optimize short-term storage operation, increasing summer energy generation by 52–88% without additional infrastructure. Among all configurations, C8 achieved the highest Net Present Value (≈EUR 153,700) and a strong Internal Rate of Return (IRR), while maintaining a stable Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of around 0.042 EUR/kWh. Comparative decision scenarios highlight distinct stakeholder priorities: storage-intensive systems (C14, C11) maximize energy security, whereas medium-scale hybrids (C8, C7) offer superior economic performance. Overall, the results confirm that hybridization significantly improves community energy autonomy and resilience. Future work should extend this framework to include environmental and social indicators, enabling a more comprehensive techno-socio-economic assessment of hybrid renewable systems. Full article
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22 pages, 2807 KB  
Article
A Crisis-Proof Electrical Power System: Desirable Characteristics and Investment Decision Support Approaches
by Renata Nogueira Francisco de Carvalho, Erik Eduardo Rego, Pamella Elleng Rosa Sangy and Simone Quaresma Brandão
Electricity 2025, 6(4), 61; https://doi.org/10.3390/electricity6040061 - 27 Oct 2025
Viewed by 718
Abstract
Electricity expansion planning is inherently subject to uncertainty, shaped by climatic, regulatory, and economic risks. In Brazil, this challenge is compounded by recurrent crises that have repeatedly reduced electricity demand. This study proposes a complementary decision-support approach to make planning more resilient to [...] Read more.
Electricity expansion planning is inherently subject to uncertainty, shaped by climatic, regulatory, and economic risks. In Brazil, this challenge is compounded by recurrent crises that have repeatedly reduced electricity demand. This study proposes a complementary decision-support approach to make planning more resilient to such crises. Using Brazil’s official optimization models (NEWAVE), we introduce two analytical elements: (i) a regret-minimization screen for choosing between conservative and optimistic demand trajectories and (ii) a flexibility stress test that evaluates the cost impact of compulsory-dispatch shares in generation portfolios. Key findings show that conservative demand projections systematically minimize consumer-cost regret when crises occur, while portfolios with lower compulsory-dispatch shares reduce total system cost and improve adaptability across 2000 hydro inflow scenarios. These results highlight that crisis-robust planning requires combining cautious demand assumptions with flexible supply portfolios. Although grounded in the Brazilian context, the methodological contributions are generalizable and provide practical guidance for other electricity markets facing deep and recurrent uncertainty. Full article
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16 pages, 4468 KB  
Article
Study on the Ablation of Slide Plate by Pantograph–Catenary Arc Based on Pantograph Slide Material
by Rui Tian, Shao-Jie Wang, Mai Lu and Jie Li
Infrastructures 2025, 10(10), 276; https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures10100276 - 15 Oct 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 543
Abstract
The ablation of pantograph sliders caused by pantograph–catenary arcing is a critical issue in the operation of pantograph–catenary systems. The arc discharge induces localized high temperatures that lead to the melting and even evaporation of the slider material, resulting in material loss. This [...] Read more.
The ablation of pantograph sliders caused by pantograph–catenary arcing is a critical issue in the operation of pantograph–catenary systems. The arc discharge induces localized high temperatures that lead to the melting and even evaporation of the slider material, resulting in material loss. This phenomenon directly impacts the power supply safety and economic efficiency of trains. This study establishes a mathematical model of pantograph–catenary arcing based on Magneto Hydro Dynamics (MHD) theory, incorporating the physical parameters of the arc as well as electromagnetic, thermal, and radiative phenomena. Through secondary development using COMSOL 6.2 finite element software, the temperature distribution within the arc column region and on the surfaces of the electrode plates in pantograph–catenary arcing was simulated. The effects of the pantograph–catenary gap and slider material on arc ablation were investigated. The results show that with the increase in the distance between the pantograph and catenary, the arc shape lengthens gradually, and the high-temperature area inside the slider material shrinks gradually. When the arc duration is constant, the copper-impregnated carbon slider exhibits the best ablation resistance. Increasing the sublimation latent heat of the slider material enhances its anti-ablation performance. The findings of this study provide a valuable reference for understanding and mitigating surface arc erosion in pantograph–catenary systems. Full article
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24 pages, 2293 KB  
Article
The Path Towards Decarbonization: The Role of Hydropower in the Generation Mix
by Fabio Massimo Gatta, Alberto Geri, Stefano Lauria, Marco Maccioni and Ludovico Nati
Energies 2025, 18(19), 5248; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18195248 - 2 Oct 2025
Viewed by 588
Abstract
The evolution of the generation mix towards deep decarbonization poses pressing questions about the role of hydropower and its possible share in the future mix. Most technical–economic analyses of deeply decarbonized systems either rule out hydropower growth due to lack of additional hydro [...] Read more.
The evolution of the generation mix towards deep decarbonization poses pressing questions about the role of hydropower and its possible share in the future mix. Most technical–economic analyses of deeply decarbonized systems either rule out hydropower growth due to lack of additional hydro resources or take it into account in terms of additional reservoir capacity. This paper analyzes a generation mix made of photovoltaic, wind, open-cycle gas turbines, electrochemical storage and hydroelectricity, focusing on the optimal generation mix’s reaction to different methane gas prices, hydroelectricity availabilities, pumped hydro reservoir capacities, and mean filling durations for hydro reservoirs. The key feature of the developed model is the sizing of both optimal peak power and reservoir energy content for hydropower. The results of the study point out two main insights. The first one, rather widely accepted, is that cost-effective decarbonization requires the greatest possible amount of hydro reservoirs. The second one is that, even in the case of totally exploited reservoirs, there is a strong case for increasing hydro peak power. Application of the model to the Italian generation mix (with 9500 MWp and 7250 MWp of non-pumped and pumped hydro fleets, respectively) suggests that it is possible to achieve methane shares of less than 10% if the operating costs of open-cycle gas turbines exceed 160 EUR/MWh and with non-pumped and pumped hydro fleets of at least 9200 MWp and 28,400 MWp, respectively. Full article
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38 pages, 6824 KB  
Article
Strategic Planning for Power System Decarbonization Using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming and the William Newman Model
by Jairo Mateo Valdez Castro and Alexander Aguila Téllez
Energies 2025, 18(18), 5018; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18185018 - 21 Sep 2025
Viewed by 1022
Abstract
This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for strategic power system decarbonization planning that integrates the William Newman method (diagnosis–options–forecast–decision) with a multi-objective Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The approach simultaneously minimizes (i) generation cost, (ii) expected cost of energy not supplied (Value of [...] Read more.
This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for strategic power system decarbonization planning that integrates the William Newman method (diagnosis–options–forecast–decision) with a multi-objective Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The approach simultaneously minimizes (i) generation cost, (ii) expected cost of energy not supplied (Value of Lost Load, VoLL), (iii) demand response cost, and (iv) CO2 emissions, subject to power balance, technical limits, and binary unit commitment decisions. The methodology is validated on the IEEE RTS 24-bus system with increasing demand profiles and representative cost and emission parameters by technology. Three transition pathways are analyzed: baseline scenario (no environmental restrictions), gradual transition (−50% target in 20 years), and accelerated transition (−75% target in 10 years). In the baseline case, the oil- and coal-dominated mix concentrates emissions (≈14 ktCO2 and ≈12 ktCO2, respectively). Under gradual transition, progressive substitution with wind and hydro reduces emissions by 15.38%, falling short of the target, showing that renewable expansion alone is insufficient without storage and demand-side management. In the accelerated transition, the model achieves −75% by year 10 while maintaining supply, with a cost–emissions trade-off highly sensitive to the carbon price. Results demonstrate that decarbonization is technically feasible and economically manageable when three enablers are combined: higher renewable penetration, storage capacity, and policy instruments that both accelerate fossil phase-out and valorize demand-side flexibility. The proposed framework is replicable and valuable for outlining realistic, verifiable transition pathways in power system planning. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances and Optimization of Electric Energy System—2nd Edition)
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