Search Results (221)

Accurate estimation of floodwater depth is vital for disaster management but traditionally relies on data-intensive hydrodynamic models or supervised deep learning restricted by labeled data requirements. To address these bottlenecks, this study proposes a fully unsupervised, training-free framework for rapid depth estimation of standing or slowly receding residual floodwater using post-event remote sensing imagery and DTMs. First, a binary flood extent map is automatically delineated by adapting an existing unsupervised color-based segmentation algorithm for UAV imagery. Second, leveraging the hydrostatic equilibrium principle, floodwater depth is computed by integrating the extracted flood footprint with the underlying DTM. This framework was evaluated using the Inundation2Depth dataset, encompassing twelve urban and peri-urban sites in the Southeastern US impacted by Hurricanes Matthew and Florence. Experimental results across all examined sites demonstrated the framework’s viability, with segmentation $F_1$-scores ranging from 63% to 96% and absolute flood depth RMSE ranged from 0.16 m in well-defined catchments to 1.69 m in highly obscured regions. Bypassing the need for manual annotations and task-specific training, the proposed framework offers a scalable, rapidly deployable solution for first-order flood mapping and depth estimation. Its computational efficiency enables execution on standard CPU hardware within seconds, making it ideal for time-critical, on-site emergency response. Full article

A central premise of climate adaptation is that better information and smarter decisions can keep escalating hazards within manageable bounds. We test this premise for one of the most information-sensitive decisions in disaster management—ordering a hurricane evacuation—and find that it has limits. Taking Hurricane Irma (2017), the storm behind Florida’s largest evacuation (6.5 million people, 4 million vehicles), as a reference event, we add Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) perturbations to the historical storm and use the Pangu-Weather artificial intelligence (AI) forecasting system to generate 20,000 ensemble members for present-day and future climates (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; 2050s and 2080s). As the climate warms, storm intensity rises by 15–20% and forecast uncertainty roughly doubles. A reinforcement learning (RL) framework that optimizes evacuation orders under these conditions then exposes a paradox: although RL’s advantage over fixed policies grows from 7% today to 17% under the 2080s SSP5-8.5, absolute evacuation performance still deteriorates by 44% despite optimization. The optimized future climate outcome (objective: 0.239) is in fact worse than that of suboptimal fixed policies today (0.178)—better decisions cannot compensate for a decision environment that has itself degraded. This is direct, scenario-specific evidence that optimization-based adaptation has a ceiling, with consequences for the long-term sustainability of hazard-exposed coastal regions: keeping such communities safe and livable will require coupling evacuation optimization with structural risk reduction, equitable access to decision-support technology, and aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation that holds future risk within adaptable—and therefore sustainable—bounds. The framework supplies quantitative support for sustainable disaster risk reduction and resilient infrastructure planning aligned with global sustainability goals. Full article

The development of offshore wind energy in tropical cyclone-prone regions requires analytical frameworks that capture non-stationary climate dynamics. This study presents a multi-scale spectral approach to characterize Atlantic tropical cyclone variability and assess implications for offshore wind resilience in the Caribbean Basin. The methodology integrates Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to resolve temporal variability in sea surface temperature, cyclone frequency, and intensity, complemented by two-dimensional kernel density estimation (KDE) and non-stationarity analysis. Using NOAA and National Hurricane Center datasets, results identify dominant periodicities at annual and ENSO (2–7 year) scales, a post-1995 spectral energy shift associated with the positive AMO phase, and a thermodynamically consistent energy corridor along 12–16° N. A statistically significant change point in 1987 (Pettitt test, p < 0.05) is detected, although spatial displacement is not significant. An integrated Wind Risk Index highlights the central-western Caribbean as a high-exposure zone overlapping offshore wind development areas. Exceedance analysis shows that 39.8% of observations surpass 25 m/s, 6.0% exceed 50 m/s, and 1.3% approach 70 m/s, indicating relevant design considerations. These findings support the need for non-stationary, multi-scale approaches in offshore wind risk assessment under tropical cyclone influence. Full article

Hurricane Florence (2018) proved to be a damaging tropical cyclone that formed off the coast of the Cabo Verde Islands. On 12 UTC 14 September 2018, Florence made landfall as a weakened category 1 Hurricane in Wrightsville Beach, NC. In the midst of landfall, Florence’s ground speed stalled considerably to near zero. Because of this stall, Florence continued to accumulate feet of rain along the coastline, and the inundation of seawater became extreme. Due to the impacts of Florence, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate the tropical cyclone and provide insight into the thermodynamics and dynamics that played a significant role at the time of landfall. After the control case, several sensitivity experiments were conducted. The historical sensitivity experiments utilize the thermodynamic and moisture fields of ERA5 reanalysis data from 1968 and 1998, respectively, to modify the thermodynamic and moisture fields in the initial conditions of the WRF–ARW control case. In addition, to study the potential future climate impacts of Florence, the NCAR CESM Global Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Output to Support WRF/MPAS Research dataset was utilized. The same approach was taken as the historical versions of Florence for sensitivity experiments for future climate, i.e., thermodynamic and moisture fields for both 2038 and 2068 under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Results suggest a corresponding intensity shift with minor track deflections. Based on these modifications, synoptic and mesoscale dynamics will be studied to provide insight into how Florence-like hurricanes may change based on certain climate scenarios. Full article

Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity with a sufficient lead time are critical for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, while fundamental to operational forecasting, often exhibit systematic errors due to limitations in observations, physical parameterizations, and model resolution. In recent years, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches have emerged as promising data-driven alternatives for improving TC forecasts. This study presents a comparative evaluation of six ML and DL models—Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)—for forecasting TC track and intensity in the North Atlantic basin. The models are trained using the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) HURDAT2 best-track dataset for storms from 1990 to 2019 and evaluated on an independent test set from the 2020 season. Model performance is compared across all models and benchmarked against the 2020 mean Decay-SHIFOR5 intensity error, CLIPER5 track errors, and the NHC official forecast (OFCL) errors. Forecast skill is assessed using mean absolute error (MAE) with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) across lead times of 6, 12, 18, 24, 48, and 72 h. The results show that: (1) several ML and DL models achieve intensity forecast performance that is broadly comparable in magnitude to the 2020 mean OFCL benchmarks, with an average error reduction of 5–11% at the 24 h lead time; (2) among the ML models, XGBoost and CatBoost slightly outperform LightGBM and RF in accuracy, while LightGBM demonstrates the highest computational efficiency; and (3) among the DL models, CNNs outperform ANNs in predictive accuracy and intensity forecasting efficiency, while ANNs exhibit lower computational cost for track forecast. Bootstrap confidence intervals indicate relatively low variability in model errors, supporting the statistical stability of the results within the 2020 season. However, these results reflect within-season variability and do not necessarily generalize across different years or climatological conditions. Overall, the findings demonstrate the potential of ML/DL-based approaches to complement existing operational forecast systems and enhance TC track and intensity forecasting in the North Atlantic basin. Full article

Hurricanes have intensified and become more persistent under a changing climate, increasing the risk of infrastructure damage and property loss in coastal regions, threatening their sustainability. This study examines how hurricane intensity and persistence influence infrastructure loss, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of climate-related risks. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Events Database from 1996 to 2024, we develop a series of machine learning models to predict property losses based on storm characteristics and contextual vulnerability factors. Narrative-based text analysis and time-series feature engineering were applied to extract meteorological and temporal attributes, while regression and ensemble models were used for predictive evaluation. Results show that storm intensity alone explains only a small portion of loss variance, with persistence influencing damage primarily through rainfall and hydrological effects. The findings highlight that vulnerability, exposure, and cumulative risk dynamics are essential for accurate long-term prediction and for assessing infrastructure sustainability. Overall, the study demonstrates that combining machine learning techniques with climate and vulnerability data can inform future research on infrastructure sustainability. The quantified vulnerability-versus-intensity breakdown presented here can support post-disaster resource allocation, insurance risk modeling, and the prioritization of infrastructure maintenance in hurricane-prone regions. Full article

The catastrophic impact of Hurricane Helene proved that standard FEMA flood maps are often inadequate for assessing risk in complex mountainous terrain. Using Buncombe County, North Carolina, as a case study, this research introduces a replicable framework for siting emergency shelters based on a multi-dimensional Flood Risk Index. By synthesizing HAND-derived inundation data, land-use intensity, and a machine learning-based Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SEVI), we mapped the intersection of hazard and vulnerability. Our analysis reveals a significant misalignment—a large portion of the current shelter network sits in high-risk zones, while safer upland corridors in the north and west remain underutilized. This study delivers a data-driven roadmap for disaster preparedness, ensuring that future shelter placement is not only safe from terrain-driven floods but also strategically and equitably located. Full article

The spontaneous emergence of macroscopic dissipative structures in systems driven by generalized chemical potentials is well established in non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Examples include atmospheric/oceanic currents, hurricanes and tornadoes, Rayleigh–Bénard convection cells and reaction–diffusion patterns. Less well recognized, however, are microscopic dissipative structures that form when the driving potential excites internal molecular degrees of freedom (electronic states and nuclear coordinates), typically via high-energy photons or coupling with ATP. Examples include dynamic nanoscale lipid rafts, kinesin or dynein motors along microtubules, and spatiotemporal Ca²⁺ signaling waves propagating through the cytoplasm. The thermodynamic dissipation theory of the origin of life asserts that the core biomolecules of all three domains of life originated as self-organized molecular dissipative structures—chromophores or pigments—that proliferated on the Archean ocean surface to absorb and dissipate the intense “soft” UV-C (205–280 nm) and UV-B (280–315 nm) solar flux into heat. Thermodynamic coupling to ancillary antenna and surface-anchoring molecules subsequently increased photon dissipation and enabled more complex dissipative processes, including photosynthesis, to dissipate lower-energy but higher-intensity UV-A and visible light. Further thermodynamic coupling to abiotic geophysical cycles (e.g., the water cycle, winds, and ocean currents) ultimately led to today’s biosphere, efficiently dissipating the incident solar spectrum well into the infrared. This paper reviews historical considerations of UV light in life’s origin and our proposal of UV-C molecular dissipative structuring of three classes of fundamental biomolecules: nucleobases, fatty acids, and pigments. Increases in structural complexity and assembly into larger complexes are shown to be driven by the thermodynamic imperative of enhancing solar photon dissipation. We conclude that thermodynamic selection of dissipative structures, rather than Darwinian natural selection, is the fundamental creative force in biology at all levels of hierarchy. Full article

Tropical cyclones can rapidly alter watershed chemistry by shifting hydrologic pathways and mobilizing stored nutrients, yet these disturbances often remain undetected when storms cause little visible flooding or geomorphic damage. During Hurricane Helene 2024, intense rainfall across the Oconee River watershed in Georgia generated sharp increases in discharge that triggered substantial nutrient export despite minimal physical alteration to the landscape. High-frequency measurements of nitrate, phosphate, and sulfate in urban, forested, and recreational settings revealed pronounced and synchronous post-storm increases in all three solutes. Nitrate showed the strongest and most persistent response, with mean concentrations increasing from approximately 1–3 mg/L during pre-storm conditions to 6–14 mg/L post-storm across sites, and remaining elevated for several months after hydrologic conditions returned to baseline. Phosphate concentrations increased sharply during the post-storm period, rising from pre-storm means of ≤0.3 mg/L to a post-storm average of 1.5 mg/L, but declined more rapidly during recovery, consistent with sediment-associated mobilization and subsequent attenuation. Sulfate concentrations also increased substantially across the watershed, with post-storm mean values commonly exceeding 20 mg/L and maximum concentrations reaching 41 mg/L, indicating sustained dissolved-phase release and enhanced temporal variability. Recovery trajectories differed by solute: phosphate returned to baseline within weeks, nitrate declined gradually, and sulfate remained elevated throughout the winter. These findings demonstrate that substantial chemical perturbations can occur even in the absence of visible storm impacts, underscoring the importance of event-based, high-resolution monitoring to detect transient but consequential shifts in watershed biogeochemistry. They also highlight the need to better resolve solute-specific pathways that govern nutrient mobilization during extreme rainfall in mixed-use watersheds with legacy nutrient stores and engineered drainage networks. Full article

Tropical cyclones pose major risks to life and property, especially as coastal populations grow and climate change increases the likelihood of intense storms, making seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones an important scientific and societal goal. This study uses HURDAT best-track records from 1950 to 2024 to quantify annual tropical cyclone, hurricane, and major hurricane counts across the Atlantic basin, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. These nine targets are paired with 34 monthly climate predictors from NOAA and NASA GISS—including SST and ENSO indices, Main Development Region (MDR) wind and pressure fields, and latent heat flux empirical orthogonal functions—evaluated under nine predictor-set configurations. Four forecasting approaches were developed and tested under operationally realistic conditions—Lasso regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), an artificial neural network (ANN), XGBoost—using a 30-year sliding-window cross-validation design and a Poisson log-likelihood skill score relative to climatology. Lasso performs reliably with concise, physically interpretable predictors, while XGBoost provides the most consistent overall skill, particularly for basin-wide total cyclone and hurricane counts. The skill of ANN is limited by small sample sizes, and KNN offers only marginal improvements. Forecast skill is the highest for basin-wide storm totals and decreases for regional major-hurricane targets due to lower event frequencies and stronger predictability limits. Full article

Due to the lack of in situ observations in mountainous locations, the use of remote sensing data is an alternative to analyze rainfall distribution patterns during the passage of major hurricanes. In this work, gridded precipitation data from the CHIRPS database are evaluated by comparing with observations from weather stations during the passage of category 3–5 hurricanes for the period 1980–2024. The comparison between estimated and observed values is performed by regression analysis and the use of K and K₀ coefficients. An advantage of using K-ratio and K₀-ratio is the identification of overestimated or underestimated precipitation in the pixel records. The distribution of daily precipitation helped in a more concise way to better understand how well CHIRPS reproduced the observed rainfall patterns. Results show that correlations between observations and database estimates are in the range of 0.40–0.76, for eastern Pacific hurricanes, and 0.49–0.78 for Atlantic hurricanes, all of which are statistically significant; however, these results do not imply congruence between observations and estimates since CHIRPS fails to adequately reproduce the position of the highest precipitation core. In the initial stages of a tropical cyclone, near-zero correlations between observations and estimates indicate that CHIRPS is not able to reproduce the observed rainfall. It is recommended to use CHIRPS with caution when the focus is on analyzing rainfall patterns during the development of intense tropical cyclones. Full article

The erratic nature, increasing prevalence, and intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena are forcing researchers and farmers to urgently develop adaptation practices to enhance the resilience of agroecosystems to climate change. It is strategically crucial to identify farming systems that have successfully endured recent climatic disturbances and understand the agroecological attributes that enabled them to resist and/or recover from droughts and hurricanes. This paper describes a number of methodologies utilized by Latin American researchers to assess agroecosystem resilience by estimating the vulnerability and the response capacity of selected farming systems to cope with climatic threats. The methodologies utilize a set of socio-ecological indicators that can be easily evaluated in the field, allowing farmers to determine whether their farms can withstand a drought or a major storm and, based on this information, select agroecological practices able to enhance the resiliency of their farms in preparation for future events. The principles and practices of resilience identified on successful, climate-resistant farms can be shared with thousands of producers, facilitating the broader adoption and scaling up of agroecological adaptation strategies. Full article

The Dvorak technique has represented a fundamental tool for understanding the power of tropical cyclones based on their shape and geometric evolution. However, it should be noted that the Dvorak technique is purely morphological in nature and was developed for wind, not precipitation. The role of shape methods in precipitation prediction remains uncertain, particularly in the context of modern multi-sensor capabilities. This uncertainty forms the motivation for the present study. In an attempt to enrich Dvorak’s technique, this study proposes a novel hypothesis. This study tests the hypothesis that higher precipitation intensity is associated with more organized cloud-system morphology, as captured by simple geometric descriptors and indicative of dynamically coherent convection. A total of 3419 cloud-system objects (after size filter) were utilized to establish geometric relationships in each of them. For the case study of Hurricane Patricia over the Mexican coast in 2015, 3858 geometric shapes were processed. The cloud-system morphology was derived from geostationary imagery (GOES-13) and collocated with satellite precipitation estimates in order to isolate intense-rainfall objects (>50 mm/h). For each object, simple geometric descriptors were computed, and shape variability was summarised via Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The present study sought to evaluate the associations with rain-rate metrics (mean, mode, maximum) using rank correlations and k-means clustering. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were conducted on the rain threshold and minimum object size. A Shape Descriptor: ratio between perimeter and diameter was identified as a promising tool to enhance early prediction models of extreme rainfall, contributing to enhanced meteorological risk management. The study indicates that cloud shape can serve as a valuable indicator in the classification and forecasting of intense cloud systems. Full article

The southeastern United States (US) is known for its highly productive forests, but they are under intense threat from increasing climate-induced windstorms like hurricanes and tornadoes. This study explored the effectiveness of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to detect, classify, and map windstorm damage in ten pine-dominated forest stands (10–20 acres each). Three classification techniques, Random Forest (RF), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and Decision Tree (DT), were tested on two datasets: RGB imagery integrated with LiDAR-derived Canopy Height Model (CHM) and without LiDAR-CHM. Using LiDAR-CHM integrated datasets, RF achieved an average Overall Accuracy (OA) of 94.52% and a kappa coefficient (k) of 0.92, followed by ML (average OA = 89.52% and k = 0.85), and DT (average OA = 81.78% and k = 0.75). The results showed that RF consistently outperformed ML and DT in classification accuracy across all sites. Without LiDAR-CHM, the performance of all classifiers significantly declined, underscoring the importance of structural data in distinguishing among the classification categories (downed trees, standing trees, ground, and water). These findings highlight the role of UAV-derived LiDAR-CHM in improving classification accuracy for assessing the impact of windstorm damage on forest stands. Full article

This study investigates landslide occurrence in Taiwan, a region highly susceptible to landslides due to steep mountains and frequent typhoons (TYPs). The primary objective is to understand how both geomorphological factors and TYP characteristics contribute to landslide occurrence, which is essential for improving hazard prediction and risk management. The research analyzed landslide events that occurred during the TYP seasons of 2019 and 2023. The methodology involved using satellite-derived landslide inventories from SPOT imagery for events larger than 0.1 hectares, tropical cyclone track and intensity data from IBTrACS v4 (classified by Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale), and detailed topographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect, Stream Power Index) extracted from a 30 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model (SRTM-DEM). Land use and land cover classifications were based on Landsat imagery. To establish a timeline, landslides were matched with TYPs within a ±3-day window, and proximity was analyzed using buffer zones ranging from 50 to 500 km around storm centers. Key findings revealed that landslide susceptibility results from a complex interplay of meteorological, topographic, and land cover factors. The critical controls identified include elevations above 2000 m, slope angles between 30 and 45 degrees, southeast- and south-facing aspects, and low Stream Power Index values typical of headwater and upper slope locations. Landslides were most frequent during Category 3 TYPs and were concentrated 300 to 350 km from storm centers, where optimal rainfall conditions for slope failures exist. Interestingly, despite the stronger storms in 2023, the number of landslides was higher in 2019. This emphasizes the importance of interannual variability and terrain preparedness. These findings support sustainable disaster risk reduction and climate-resilient development, aligning with Sustainable Development Goals 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and 13 (Climate Action). Furthermore, they provide a foundation for improving hazard assessment and risk mitigation in Taiwan and similar mountainous, TYP-prone regions. Full article