Search Results (36)

Quantum tunneling is conventionally described by the Schrödinger wave equation with a prescribed static potential barrier, providing accurate transmission probabilities but offering limited insight into the microscopic dynamics of particle–barrier interactions. In this work, we develop a dynamical second-quantization framework in which the barrier is modeled as an ensemble of quantized internal modes rather than as an externally imposed classical potential. The tunneling particle interacts directly with these microscopic barrier excitations through a coupled particle–barrier Hamiltonian, from which the Heisenberg equations of motion are derived. Collective coherent excitations of the barrier modes give rise to an emergent effective barrier that naturally recovers the conventional rectangular barrier and the WKB transmission limit under appropriate conditions. Unlike standard treatments, the present formulation explicitly incorporates microscopic barrier dynamics and provides a unified description of particle–barrier coupling within a second-quantized formalism. The framework further suggests that repeated tunneling events may experience different microscopic interaction histories, motivating a statistical interpretation of tunneling times. Because both the particle and barrier are treated within the same operator formalism, the theory provides a natural foundation for extension to relativistic quantum transport, photonic barriers, cavity quantum electrodynamics, and other structured quantum media. Full article

This study examines access to Indonesia’s subsidised credit programme, Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR), during the COVID-19 pandemic using signalling theory. Based on logit regression of survey data from 2361 micro and small enterprises (MSEs), the study analyses how borrower characteristics were associated with loan approval across the Super Micro, Micro, and Small KUR schemes. The results show that prior credit history was the strongest observed signal of creditworthiness during the crisis. Previous receipt of KUR was associated with a 5 percentage-point higher probability of loan approval. Scheme-level estimations indicate heterogeneous signalling mechanisms. Prior credit history was positively associated with access to Micro KUR (15 p.p) and negatively associated with access to KUR Super Mikro that targeted non-bankable SMEs, whereas access to Small KUR was more strongly associated with collateral-based signals, particularly land ownership. The findings further indicate that borrowers lacking prior credit experience or formal assets were less likely to obtain KUR during the pandemic, suggesting that crisis-period lending created a “signaling trap” that stabilised liquidity while perpetuating exclusion. The study recommends reforms to KUR that incorporate hybrid risk assessment mechanisms, capacity-building, decentralised guarantees, and pathways to formalisation. Full article

Based on the Direct Probability Integral Method (DPIM), this study investigates the global seismic reliability of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures considering the randomness of material parameters and the non-stationarity of ground motions. A doubly non-stationary ground motion model is established using evolutionary power spectrum theory combined with the spectral representation–stochastic function method. A dimensionality reduction technique is adopted to generate ground motion samples compatible with the design response spectrum. A finite element model of the RC frame is developed in Abaqus. Modal analysis and deterministic time history analysis are conducted to obtain the dynamic characteristics and seismic responses of the structure. Based on 600 representative ground motion time histories generated using the maximum frontier (MF) discrepancy sampling method, nonlinear time history analyses are performed. The DPIM is then employed to calculate the statistical characteristics of structural responses and quantify response variability, enabling a rational evaluation of the structural safety margin. Finally, based on the equivalent extreme value event theory and DPIM, the reliability of the structure under a single failure mode and the global reliability under multiple failure modes are computed. The results show that the global reliability of the structure is 82.088%, which is significantly lower than that of any single failure mode. This study provides a quantitative reference for evaluating the global seismic reliability of RC frame structures subjected to nonstationary seismic excitation. Full article

Under the background of global climate change, frequent drought events have significantly impacted plant–insect interaction. This study focuses on Ficus microcarpa, an important landscaping and urban greening tree species in tropical and subtropical regions, and its primary herbivorous pest, Perina nuda, by applying the age-stage, two-sex life table theory to systematically evaluate the effects on the life history traits and population dynamics of P. nuda reared on F. microcarpa subjected to different levels of drought stress. The results demonstrated that reared on drought-stressed F. microcarpa significantly altered multiple life history traits of P. nuda. All drought treatments significantly shortened the larval development period. Under both light and severe drought conditions, adult lifespan was prolonged, the total pre-oviposition period was reduced, fecundity per female increased, and generation time (T) was shortened. However, significant increases in pupal weight, intrinsic rate of increase (r), and finite rate of increase (λ) were observed only under light drought stress. The population prediction results indicate that both light and severe drought stress lead to obviously higher population growth rates and larger population sizes at 200 days compared to the control group. These findings suggest that the population fitness of P. nuda is enhanced under light and severe drought stress, potentially increasing the probability of pest outbreaks. This study provides an important theoretical basis and practical advice on forecasting population dynamics and implementing integrated management strategies for P. nuda in the context of climate change. Full article

Host-vector contact rates influence the spread of several vector-borne infections, including avian haemoparasites. To investigate the ecological mechanisms underlying avian disease dynamics, we examined haemoparasite prevalences in relation to bird life-history attributes. Using previously collected data of 1003 birds sampled from an Afrotropical region, we tested the hypothesis that a bird’s behavioural traits and habitat do not influence the chances of infection. Overall, infection prevalence did not differ significantly between gregarious and solitary birds, nor across association categories (wild, mixed, anthropogenic). However, significant differences in infection were detected across haemoparasite genera. Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, and Leucocytozoon showed distinct infection patterns in relation to host behavioural traits and habitats. Moreover, there were significant differences in infection prevalence based on movement patterns (resident, nomadic, migratory) and foraging strata (ground, mixed, aerial). These results enhance our avian parasitology theories, indicating that behavioural traits and habitat also have parasite-genus-dependent impacts on infection prevalence. Our research demonstrates that behavioural characteristics have an unequal impact on haemoparasite prevalence, indicating that no single factor can accurately predict the probability of infection at an Afrotropical setting. Full article

Settlement analyses of foundation soils are very important for the investigation, design, and construction of buildings. However, due to complex natural sedimentary processes, soil-forming environments, and geological tectonic stress histories, settlement properties show obvious spatial variability and autocorrelation. Moreover, measurement data on the physical and mechanical parameters of building foundation soils are limited. This limits the accuracy of formation stability analyses and safety evaluations. In this study, a series of field tests of building foundation soils were carried out, and the statistical physical and mechanical properties of the clay strata were obtained. A random field method and copula functions of uncertain geotechnical properties with limited survey data are proposed. A dual-yield surface constitutive model of the soil properties and a stability analysis method for uncertain deformation were developed. The detailed analytical procedures for soil deformation and stratum settlement are presented. The reliability functions and failure probabilities of variable settlement processes are calculated and analyzed. The impact of the spatial variation and cross-correlation of geotechnical properties on the probabilistic stability of variable land subsidence is discussed. This work presents an innovative analysis approach for evaluating the variable settlement properties of building foundation soils. The results show that the four different mechanical parameters can be regressed to linear equations. The horizontal fluctuation scale is significantly larger than the vertical scale. Copula theory provides a powerful framework for modeling limited geotechnical parameters. The bootstrap approach avoids parametric assumptions, leveraging empirical data to enhance the reliability analysis of variable settlement. The variability parameter exerts a greater influence on land subsidence processes than the correlation structure. The failure probabilities of variable stratum settlement for different cross-correlations of building foundation soils are different. These results provide an important reference for the safety of building engineering. Full article

We survey some of the main developments in probability theory during the so-called “heroic age”; that is, the period from the nineteen twenties to the early nineteen fifties. It was during the heroic age that probability finally attained the status of a mathematical discipline in the full sense of the term, with a complete axiomatic basis and incontestable standards of intellectual rigor to complement and support the extraordinarily rich intuitive content that has always been part of probability theory from its very inception. The axiomatic basis and mathematical rigor are themselves rooted in the abstract theory of measure and integration, which now comprises the very bedrock of modern probability, and among the central characters in the measure-theoretic “re-invention” of probability during the heroic age one finds, in particular, Kolmogorov, Doob, Lévy, Khinchin and Feller, each of whom fundamentally shaped the structure of modern probability. In this survey, we attempt a brief sketch of some of the main contributions of each of these pioneers. Full article

Semisubmersible floating structures are becoming the predominant understructure type for floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) worldwide. As FOWTs are erected far away from land and in deep seas, they inevitably suffer violent and complicated sea conditions, including extreme waves and winds. Mooring lines are the representative flexible members of the whole structure and are likely to incur damage due to years of impact, corrosion, or fatigue. To improve mooring redundancy at each azimuth angle around a wind turbine, a group of mooring lines are configured in the same direction instead of just one mooring line. This study focuses on the mooring failure problems that would probably occur in a realistic redundant mooring system of a semisubmersible FOWT, and the worst residual mooring layout is considered. An FOWT numerical model with a 3 × 3 mooring system is established in terms of 3D potential flow and BEM (blade element momentum) theories, and aero-hydro floating-body mooring coupled analyses are performed to discuss the subsequent time histories of dynamic responses after different types of mooring failure. As under extreme failure conditions, the final horizontal offsets of the structure and the layout of the residual mooring system are evaluated under still water, design, and extreme environmental conditions. The results show that the transient tension in up-wave mooring lines can reach more than 12,000 kN under extreme environmental conditions, inducing further failure of the whole chain group. Then, a deflection angle of 60° may occur on the residual laid chain, which may bring about dangerous anchor dragging. Full article

The rapid growth of wind energy has necessitated the development of advanced materials to address the increasing structural demands of wind turbine blades. Graphene platelets (GPLs) have garnered attention as a promising reinforcement material due to their outstanding mechanical properties, such as high strength and low density. This study investigates the fatigue life of wind turbine blades reinforced with GPLs, benchmarking their performance against conventional fiberglass blades. A finite element model of a 5 MW wind turbine blade was developed to evaluate stresses within the blade structure. The traditional fiberglass blade was modeled based on the SNL 61.5 m design by Sandia National Laboratories, while the GPL-reinforced composite (GPLRC) blade was designed by substituting fiberglass with GPLRCs. Material properties of the GPLRCs were determined using the rule of mixtures and the Halpin–Tsai micromechanics model. Wind speed data were randomly sampled following the probability distribution observed at European wind farms, and corresponding aerodynamic loads were computed using blade element momentum theory. Finite element analyses were performed to derive stress time histories, and fatigue life was predicted using the S-N curve approach, incorporating the Goodman diagram and the Palmgren–Miner rule. The results reveal that while GPLRC-reinforced blades exhibit some limitations in fatigue performance compared to traditional fiberglass blades, potential solutions for improving their durability are proposed, highlighting avenues for further research and optimization in the application of GPLRCs to wind turbine blades. Full article

For medium- and small-span bridges, the weight of the superstructure in steel–concrete composite girder bridges is lighter than that of a reinforced concrete girder bridge. However, it is still uncertain whether steel–concrete composite girder bridges exhibit superior seismic performance compared to reinforced concrete girder bridges. This study quantitatively compared the seismic performance of the two types of bridges. Using the theory of probabilistic seismic demand analysis, the seismic vulnerability curves of bridges were derived. To conduct seismic demand analysis for probabilistic analysis on the OpenSEES platform, bridge samples were generated using the Latin hypercube stratified sampling method, which considers the uncertainties associated with the two types of bridges. The vulnerability curves of the piers, bearings, abutments, and the system of the two bridges were established using probabilistic analysis of the time history analyses. The results showed that the seismic vulnerabilities of components and the overall system of the steel–concrete composite girder bridge were both lower than those of the reinforced concrete girder bridge. When the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the ground motion was 0.3 g, the moderate and serious damage probabilities of the piers in the steel–concrete composite bridge were only 54.61% and 60.89%, respectively, of those of the reinforced concrete bridge. Consequently, replacing the upper reinforced concrete girders with steel–concrete composite girders can significantly improve the seismic performance of a large number of existing bridges. Full article

Solar and lunar eclipses are indeed the first astronomical phenomena which have been recorded since very early antiquity. Their periodicities gave birth to the first luni-solar calendars based on the Methonic cycle since the sixth century before Christ. The Saros cycle of 18.03 years is due to the Chaldean astronomical observations. Their eclipses’ observations reported by Ptolemy in the Almagest (Alexandria of Egypt, about 150 a.C.) enabled modern astronomers to recognize the irregular rotation rate of the Earth. The Earth’s rotation is some hours in delay after the last three millenia if we use the present rotation to simulate the 721 b.C. total eclipse in Babylon. This is one of the most important issues in modern celestial mechanics, along with the Earth’s axis nutation of 18 yr (discovered in 1737), precession of 25.7 Kyr (discovered by Ipparchus around 150 b.C.) and obliquity of 42 Kyr motions (discovered by Arabic astronomers and assessed from the Middle Ages to the modern era, IX to XVIII centuries). Newtonian and Einstenian gravitational theories explain fully these tiny motions, along with the Lense–Thirring gravitodynamic effect, which required great experimental accuracy. The most accurate lunar and solar theories, or their motion in analytical or numerical form, allow us to predict—along with the lunar limb profile recovered by a Japanese lunar orbiter—the appearance of total, annular solar eclipses or lunar occultations for a given place on Earth. The observation of these events, with precise timing, may permit us to verify the sphericity of the solar profile and its variability. The variation of the solar diameter on a global scale was claimed firstly by Angelo Secchi in the 1860s and more recently by Jack Eddy in 1978. In both cases, long and accurate observational campaigns started in Rome (1877–1937) and Greenwich Observatories, as well as at Yale University and the NASA and US Naval Observatory (1979–2011) with eclipses and balloon-borne heliometric observations. The IOTA/ES and US sections as well as the ICRA continued the eclipse campaigns. The global variations of the solar diameter over a decadal timescale, and at the millarcsecond level, may reflect some variation in solar energy output, which may explain some past climatic variations (such as the Allerød and Dryas periods in Pleistocene), involving the outer layers of the Sun. “An eclipse never comes alone”; in the eclipse season, lasting about one month, we can have also lunar eclipses. Including the penumbral lunar eclipses, the probability of occurrence is equi-distributed amongst lunar and solar eclipses, but while the lunar eclipses are visible for a whole hemisphere at once, the solar eclipses are not. The color of the umbral shadow on the Moon was known since antiquity, and Galileo (1632, Dialogo sopra i Massimi Sistemi del Mondo) shows clearly these phenomena from copper color to a totally dark, eclipsed full Moon. Three centuries later, André Danjon was able to correlate that umbral color with the 11-year cycle of solar activity. The forthcoming American total solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 will be probably the eclipse with the largest mediatic impact of the history; we wish that also the scientific impulse toward solar physics and astronomy will be relevant, and the measure of the solar diameter with Baily’s beads is indeed one of the topics significantly related to the Sun–Earth connections. Full article

The objective of this study is to further promote and apply the structural monitoring system to medium and small bridges, given the relative delays in scientific research, technical specifications, and engineering practice for the safety monitoring of small and medium-span girder bridges, as well as the relative simplicity of the structural system of these bridges, their well-defined forces, and the relatively large proportion of live load responses during operation. These concepts are proposed based on the evaluation method of live loading (As therefore, this paper suggests the notion of sensor acquisition frequency and appropriate acquisition frequency based on the live load assessment method and the fundamental reliability theory). Based on the time-history curve depicting the midspan deflection response of the vehicle-bridge coupling system, the frequency domain analysis reveals that the power spectrum at −3 dB corresponds to the response cutoff frequency. Significantly, the cutoff frequency mentioned is double the acquisition frequency considered suitable for the study. Based on the definition of a quasi-static response, it can be deduced that the velocity of a load does not exert any influence on the quasi-static response of a bridge structure. As a result, the derivation of the components related to the midspan deflection of a bridge’s quasi-static response is presented, together with a recommended set of methodological guidelines for the extraction of finite elements. This study introduces a novel approach for determining the cutoff frequency of the structural response by utilizing the characteristics of amplitude spectrum estimation and power spectrum estimation in frequency domain analysis. The cutoff frequency of the signal is determined by analyzing the amplitude-frequency curve of the power spectrum. Subsequently, the probability density function of the original time-history curve data is estimated based on the amplitude spectrum. Finally, reliability analysis is conducted by calculating the ratio of the amplitude spectrum area of the signal obtained through a reasonable acquisition frequency to the area of the amplitude spectrum function of the original signal. This analysis verifies the reliability of the proposed method for determining the midspan deflection acquisition frequency. Full article

Road sign support systems are not usually well managed, because bridges and pavements have budget and maintenance priority while the sign boards and sign supports are considered miscellaneous items. The authors of this paper developed a simple deterioration prediction model and a repair priority list for sign support systems. For asset management risk analysis, data were collected from the Connecticut Department of Transportation (CTDOT) asset management database. Asset ages, repair history, installation and repair costs, and other administrative information were collected. While there were many advanced and complicated structural deterioration prediction models, the Weibull function was used in this research because it is a simple probability distribution function that has been widely used in reliability theory. Assuming that the primary factors of the deterioration prediction are age and initial installation quality, the repair priority list was developed based on the risk analysis of the assets. Asset risks were calculated based on the deterioration prediction model and traffic impacts of the failure. Full article

The Born probability measure describes the statistics of measurements in which observers self-locate themselves in some region of reality. In $\psi$-ontic quantum theories, reality is directly represented by the wavefunction. We show that quantum probabilities may be identified using fractions of a universal multiple-time wavefunction containing both causal and retrocausal temporal parts. This wavefunction is defined in an appropriately generalized history space on the Keldysh time contour. Our deterministic formulation of quantum mechanics replaces the initial condition of standard Schrödinger dynamics, with a network of ‘fixed points’ defining quantum histories on the contour. The Born measure is derived by summing up the wavefunction along these histories. We then apply the same technique to the derivation of the statistics of measurements with pre- and postselection. Full article

The vibration impact force from the long-term operation of a subway affects the comfort of the residents living above the superstructure and the long-term settlement deformation of the tunnel foundation. A method for evaluating the dynamic responses of superstructure–tunnel systems is important, especially because of the randomness of vibration impact force. The coupling effect of the randomness of train-vibration excitation and the nonlinearity of the geotechnical properties that are subjected to dynamic action leads to challenges in the evaluation of the performance of superstructure–underground tunnel–soil systems under train vibration. In this study, a stochastic dynamic model of subway vibration-load excitation was established; then, the time histories of samples with rich probability characteristics in the same set system were generated. According to the nonlinear dynamic finite element analysis, several nonlinear dynamic responses of the deterministic superstructure–tunnel soil-foundation system were obtained. Finally, the probabilistic performance evolution of the superstructure–tunnel soil-foundation system was obtained by integrating the first-passage and probability density evolution theories, and the long-term deformation performance of the tunnel foundation was evaluated using time-varying reliability. This study presents a novel probabilistic method and a more objective performance index for the dynamic performance assessment of superstructure–underground tunnel–soil systems that are subjected to subway-traffic excitation. Full article