Search Results (138)

The rising frequency of heatwaves, combined with the urban heat island effect, increases the population’s exposure to high temperatures, significantly impacting the health of vulnerable groups and the overall well-being of residents. While mesoscale meteorological models can reliably forecast temperatures across urban neighbourhoods, dense networks of in situ measurements offer more precise data at the street scale. In this work, the Random Forest technique was used to predict street-scale temperatures in the downtown area of Thessaloniki, Greece, during a prolonged heatwave in July 2021. The model was trained using data from a low-cost sensor network, meteorological fields calculated by the mesoscale model MEMO, and micro-environmental spatial features. The results show that, although the MEMO temperature predictions achieve high accuracy during nighttime compared to measurements, they exhibit inconsistent trends across sensor locations during daytime, indicating that the model does not fully account for microclimatic phenomena. Additionally, by using only the observed temperature as the target of the Random Forest model, higher accuracy is achieved, but spatial features are not represented in the predictions. In contrast, the most reliable approach to incorporating spatial characteristics is to use the difference between observed and mesoscale temperatures as the target variable. Full article

Rapid population growth and urbanization have greatly impacted the environment, causing a sharp rise in city temperatures—a phenomenon known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. While previous research has extensively examined the influence of land use characteristics on urban heat islands, their impact on community demographics and UHI severity remains unexplored. Moreover, most previous studies have focused on specific locations, resulting in relatively homogeneous environmental data and limiting understanding of variations across different areas. To address this gap, this paper develops ensemble learning models to predict UHI severity based on demographic, meteorological, and land use/land cover factors in Midwestern United States. Analyzing over 11,000 data points from urban census tracts across more than 12 states in the Midwestern United States, this study developed Random Forest and XGBoost classifiers achieving weighted F1-scores up to 0.76 and excellent discriminatory power (ROC-AUC > 0.90). Feature importance analysis, supported by a detailed SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) interpretation, revealed that the difference in vegetation between urban and rural areas (DelNDVI_summer) and imperviousness were the most critical predictors of UHI severity. This work provides a robust, large-scale predictive tool that helps urban planners and policymakers identify key UHI drivers and develop targeted mitigation strategies. Full article

Ornamental plants play a crucial role in the mitigation of urban heat islands. Recent decades have seen an increased frequency of abnormal climatic events like warm springs, but how these climatic events impact plant phenology in ornamental plants in urban areas is unclear. This study examines how climate fluctuations affect the flowering patterns (1963–2018) and thermal requirements of 28 woody ornamental species in Xi’an, a principal city in Central China. Years were classified as cold (<13.3 °C), normal (between 13.3 and 17.2 °C), or warm (>17.2 °C) based on March–May temperatures. The results show that the first flowering dates (FFDs) advanced by 10.63 days in warm years but were delayed by 6.14 days in cold years compared to normal years. Notably, thermal requirements (5 °C threshold) were 11.3% higher in warm years (343.05 vs. 308.09 °C days) and 9.4% lower in cold years (279.19 °C days), likely due to reduced winter chilling accumulation in warm conditions. While thermal time models accurately predicted FFDs in normal years (error: 0.33–1.37 days), they showed systematic biases in abnormal years—overestimating advancement by 1.56 days in warm years and delays by 3.42 days in cold years. These findings highlight that the current phenological models assuming fixed thermal thresholds may significantly mispredict flowering times under climate variability. Our results emphasize the need to incorporate dynamic thermal requirements and chilling effects when forecasting urban plant responses to climate change, particularly for extreme climate scenarios. Full article

Urban blue–green space (UBGS) plays a critical role in mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect and reducing land surface temperatures (LSTs). However, existing research has not sufficiently explored the optimization of UBGS spatial configurations or their interactions with urban morphology. This study takes New York City as a case and systematically investigates small-scale urban cooling strategies by integrating multiple factors, including adjustments to the blue–green ratio, spatial layouts, vegetation composition, building density, building height, and layout typologies. We utilize multi-source geographic data, including LiDAR derived land cover, OpenStreetMap data, and building footprint data, together with LST data retrieved from Landsat imagery, to develop a prediction model based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). This model can rapidly generate visual LST predictions under various configuration scenarios. This study employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative metrics to evaluate the performance of different model stages, selecting the most accurate model as the final experimental framework. Furthermore, the experimental design strictly controls the study area and pixel allocation, combining manual and automated methods to ensure the comparability of different ratio configurations. The main findings indicate that a blue–green ratio of 3:7 maximizes cooling efficiency; a shrub-to-tree coverage ratio of 2:8 performs best, with tree-dominated configurations outperforming shrub-dominated ones; concentrated linear layouts achieve up to a 10.01% cooling effect; and taller buildings exhibit significantly stronger UBGS cooling performance, with super-tall areas achieving cooling effects approximately 31 percentage points higher than low-rise areas. Courtyard layouts enhance airflow and synergistic cooling effects, whereas compact designs limit the cooling potential of UBGS. This study proposes an innovative application of GANs to address a key research gap in the quantitative optimization of UBGS configurations and provides a methodological reference for sustainable microclimate planning at the neighborhood scale. Full article

Urban ventilation corridors play a critical role in improving wind environments, mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect, and enhancing urban climate resilience. Traditional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods offer high accuracy in simulating wind fields but are computationally intensive and inefficient for large-scale, multi-scenario urban planning tasks. To address this limitation, this study proposes a morphology-driven, machine learning-based framework for ventilation corridor identification. The method integrates Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) simulations, neighborhood-based feature normalization, and a random forest regression model to establish a predictive relationship between morphological indices and wind speed distributions under prevailing wind conditions. Input features include raw and log-transformed LBM values, neighborhood-normalized indicators within multiple radii (100–2000 m), and porosity statistics. The model is trained and validated using CFD-simulated wind speeds, with the dataset randomly divided into training (80%), validation (10%), and testing (10%) subsets. The results show that the proposed method can accurately predict spatial wind speed patterns and identify both primary and secondary ventilation corridors. Primary corridors are closely aligned with large rivers and lakes, while secondary corridors are shaped by arterial roads and localized open spaces. Compared with conventional approaches such as FAI classification, Least Cost Path (LCP), and circuit theory models, the proposed framework offers higher spatial resolution and better alignment with the CFD results while significantly reducing computational cost. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using morphological and data-driven approaches to support efficient and scalable urban ventilation analysis, providing valuable guidance for climate-responsive urban design. Full article

Urbanization, habitat fragmentation, and intensifying urban heat island (UHI) effects accelerate biodiversity loss and diminish ecological resilience in cities, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions. To address these challenges, we developed TreeGrid, a functionality-based spatial tree planning tool designed specifically for urban settings in the Northern Plains of India. The tool integrates species trait datasets, ecological scoring metrics, and spatial simulations to optimize tree placement for enhanced ecosystem service delivery, biodiversity support, and urban cooling. Developed within an R Shiny framework, TreeGrid dynamically computes biodiversity indices, faunal diversity potential, canopy shading, carbon sequestration, and habitat connectivity while simulating localized reductions in land surface temperature (LST). Additionally, we trained a deep neural network (DNN) model using tool-generated data to predict bird habitat suitability across diverse urban contexts. The tool’s spatial optimization capabilities are also applicable to post-fire restoration planning in wildland–urban interfaces by guiding the selection of appropriate endemic species for revegetation. This integrated framework supports the development of scalable applications in other climate-impacted regions, highlighting the utility of participatory planning, predictive modeling, and ecosystem service assessments in designing biodiversity-inclusive and thermally resilient urban landscapes. Full article

This study explores a method for deriving air temperature (AT) from land surface temperature (LST) based on different urban land-use types, aiming to address the accuracy of urban heat island (UHI) effect measurements. Using Wuhan as a case study, the research integrates remote sensing data with ground meteorological observations to develop various models, analyze their accuracy and applicability, and generate LST and AT maps to validate model reliability. The results indicate that when establishing the LST–AT relationship, polynomial regression performs best for water bodies (R² = 0.905), while random forest yields the highest R² for built-up areas, cropland, and vegetation at 0.942, 0.953, and 0.924, respectively. Due to the characteristics of the algorithms, it is recommended to prioritize random forest for prediction when the sample range covers the observed data range and to use BP neural networks when it does not. The generated maps reveal that in summer, using LST significantly overestimates UHI intensity in the study area, while differences between UHI intensities in winter are negligible. In resource-constrained scenarios, LST can be directly used to assess the UHI effect. Full article

Studies show that Nature-Based Solutions can mitigate Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects by implementing green spaces. Green roofs (GRs) may minimize land surface temperature (LST) by modifying albedo. This research predicts, assesses, and measures the impact of reducing the LST by applying green roofs in buildings by using a Random Forest algorithm and different remote sensing methods. To this aim, the city of Granada, Spain, was used as a case study. The city is classified into different Local Climate Zones (LCZs) to determine the area available for retrofitting GRs in built-up areas. A total of 14 Surface Temperature Collection 2 Level-2 images were acquired through Landsat 8–9, while 14 images for spectral indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Building Index (NDBI), and Proportion Vegetation (PV) were calculated from Sentinel-2 in dates coinciding or close to LST images. Additional factors were considered including the sky view factor (SVF) and water distance (WD). The results suggest that Granada has limited suitable areas for retrofitting GRs, and available areas can reduce LST with a moderate impact, at an average of 1.45 °C; however, vegetation plays an important role in decreasing LST. This study provides a methodological example to identify the benefits of implementing GRs in reducing LST in semi-arid cities and recommends a combination of strategies for LST mitigation. Full article

A simple statistical model capturing the degree to which different patterns of urban development intensify urban heat islands (UHIs) and stress human health would be useful but has remained elusive. Accurately predicting street-level urban air temperatures from land cover and thermal data is difficult due to (1) the coarse scale of common remote sensing data, which do not observe the key environments beneath urban tree canopies, and, (2) conversely, the immense labor of intense, location-specific, ground-based survey campaigns. This work tested whether remotely sensed urban heat merged with land cover heterogeneity and shade/sun fractions, if combined at a sufficiently fine scale so as to be linearly additive, would enable simple and accurate statistical modeling of street-scale urban air temperatures with minimal empirical fitting. We used ground-based thermography of a sample of 12 residential streetscapes in Portland, Oregon, to characterize the land surface temperatures (LST_g) of eleven common urban surface cover types when sun-exposed and in shade. Surfaces were cooler in shade than sun, but with surface-specific differences not explained by greenery nor (im)perviousness. Also, surfaces on streetscapes with more canopy cover, even when sun-exposed at midday, remained significantly cooler than comparable sun-exposed surfaces on streets with less canopy cover, indicating the key significance of partial diurnal shading, not typically accounted for in urban thermal statistical models. We used high-resolution orthoimagery to quantify the area of each surface cover type within each streetscape and computed an area-weighted average surface temperature (T_s), accounting for sun/shade heterogeneity. The data revealed a significant, nearly 1:1 relationship between calculated T_s values and sun-shielded air temperatures (T_a). In contrast, relationships of T_a to tree coverage, impervious area, or the LST_g of dominant surface cover types were all statistically insignificant. These results suggest that statistical models may more reliably bridge the gap between remote sensing urban surface temperatures and reliable predictions of street-scale air temperatures if (1) analysis is at a sufficiently high resolution (e.g., <10 m) to avoid some of the known scale-dependence of urban thermal environments and enable simple weighted linear models, and (2) distinctions between thermal contributions of sunlit and shaded surfaces are included along with the influence of diurnal shading. Such models may provide effective and low-cost predictions of local UHIs and help inform effective street-level approaches to mitigating urban heat. Full article

During the intense heatwaves of late summer 2024, Washington, D.C.’s urban landscape revealed the powerful influence of urban morphology on microclimates and air quality. This study investigates the impact of building height-to-width (H/W) ratios on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, using a combination of field measurements and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to understand the dynamics. Street-level data collected from late August to November 2024 across three sites in Washington, D.C., indicate that high H/W ratios (1.5–2.0) increased temperatures by approximately 2–3 °C and reduced wind speeds to around 0.8 m/s. These conditions led to elevated pollutant concentrations, with ozone (O₃) ranging from 1.8 to 7.3 ppb, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) from 0.3 to 0.5 ppm, and carbon monoxide (CO) remaining relatively constant at approximately 2.1 ppm. PM_2.5 concentrations fluctuated between 2.8 and 0.4 $\mathsf{\mu }$g/m³. Meanwhile, lower H/W ratios (less than 1.5) demonstrated better air circulation and lower pollution levels. The CFD simulations are in agreement with the experimental data, yielding an RMSE of 0.75 for temperature, demonstrating its utility for forecasting UHI effects under varying urban layouts. These results demonstrate the potential of Computational Fluid Dynamics in not only modeling but also predicting UHI dynamics. Full article

This study investigates the relationship between Green View Index (GVI) and street thermal environment in Hangzhou’s main urban area during summer, quantifying urban greenery’s impact on diurnal/nocturnal thermal conditions to inform urban heat island mitigation strategies. Multi-source data (3D morphological metrics, LCZ classifications, mobile measurements) were integrated with deep learning-derived street-level GVI through image analysis. A random forest-multiple regression hybrid model evaluated spatiotemporal variations and GVI impacts across time, street orientation, and urban-rural gradients. Key findings include: (1) Urban street Ta prediction model: Daytime model: R² = 0.54, RMSE = 0.33 °C; Nighttime model: R² = 0.71, RMSE = 0.42 °C. (2) GVI shows significant inverse association with temperature, A 0.1 unit increase in GVI reduced temperatures by 0.124°C during the day and 0.020 °C at night. (3) Orientation effects: North–south streets exhibit strongest cooling (1.85 °C daytime reduction), followed by east–west; northeast–southwest layouts show negligible impact; (4) Canyon geometry: Low-aspect canyons (H/W < 1) enhance cooling efficiency, while high-aspect canyons (H/W > 2) retain nocturnal heat despite daytime cooling; (5) Urban-rural gradient: Cooling peaks in urban-fringe zones (10–15 km daytime, 15–20 km nighttime), contrasting with persistent nocturnal warmth in urban cores (0–5 km); (6) LCZ variability: Daytime cooling intensity peaks in LCZ3, nighttime in LCZ6. These findings offer scientific evidence and empirical support for urban thermal environment optimization strategies in urban planning and landscape design. We recommend dynamic coupling of street orientation, three-dimensional morphological characteristics, and vegetation configuration parameters to formulate differentiated thermal environment design guidelines, enabling precise alignment between mitigation measures and spatial context-specific features. Full article

This study focuses on assessing the physical growth of cities and the land-cover changes resulting from it, which play a crucial role in understanding the environmental impacts and managing phenomena such as the Daytime Urban Surface Heat Island Intensity (DSUHII). Predicting the trends of these changes for the future provides valuable insights for urban planning and mitigating thermal effects in arid environments. This research aims to evaluate the spatial and temporal changes in the intensity of urban surface heat islands in cities under different climatic conditions, resulting from land-cover changes in the past, and to predict future trends. For this purpose, Landsat satellite data products, including Surface Reflectance with a 30-m resolution and Land Surface Temperature (LST) originally at a 100 (120)-meter resolution for Landsat 8 (Landsat 5) (resampled to 30 m for compatibility), along with a database of underlying criteria affecting urban growth, were used to analyze land-cover and LST changes. The land-cover classification was carried out using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm, and its accuracy was assessed. Spatial and temporal changes in LST and land-cover classes were quantified using cross-tabulation models and subtraction operators. Subsequently, the impact of land-cover changes on LST in different climates was analyzed, and the trends of land-cover and DUSHII changes were simulated for the future using the CA–Markov model. The results showed that in the humid climate (Babol and Rasht), built-up areas increased by over 100% from 1990 to 2023 and are projected to grow further by 2055, while green spaces significantly decreased. In the cold–dry climate (Mashhad), urban development increased dramatically, and green spaces nearly halved. In the hot–dry climate (Yazd and Kerman), built-up areas tripled, and the reduction of green spaces will continue. Additionally, in cities with hot and dry climates, a significant area of barren land was converted into built-up areas, and this trend is predicted to continue in the future. DSUHII in Babol increased from 2.5 °C in 1990 to 5.4 °C in 2023 and is projected to rise to 7.8 °C by 2055. In Rasht, this value increased from 2.9 °C to 5.5 °C, and is expected to reach 7.6 °C. In Mashhad, the DSUHII was negative, decreasing from −1.1 °C in 1990 to −1.5 °C in 2023, and is projected to decline to −1.9 °C by 2055. In Yazd, DSUHII also remained negative, decreasing from −2.5 °C in 1990 to −3.3 °C in 2023, with an expected drop to −6.4 °C by 2055. Similarly, in Kerman, the intensity of DSUHII decreased from −2.8 °C to −5.1 °C, and it is expected to reach −7.1 °C by 2055. Overall, the conclusions highlight that in humid climates, DSUHII has significantly increased, while green spaces have decreased. In moderate, cold, and dry climates, a gradual reduction in DSUHII is observed. In the hot–dry climate, the most substantial decrease in DSUHII is evident, indicating the varying impacts of land-cover changes on DSUHII across these regions. Full article

The increasing severity of the urban heat island (UHI) effect is a consequence of rapid urban expansion and global climate change. The urban center of Da Nang, Vietnam, is currently experiencing severe UHI effects combined with increasingly frequent heatwaves. This study employs advanced machine learning techniques—including natural gradient boosting machine and deep neural network—to model the spatial variation in UHI intensity. The explanatory variables include topographical features, distances to coastlines and rivers, land cover types, built-up density, greenspace density, bareland density, waterbody density, and distance to wetlands. Experimental results show that the machine learning models successfully explain 90% of the variation in UHI intensity. To identify the primary factors influencing UHI intensity, Shapley additive explanations are utilized. Additionally, a neural network-based cellular automata model is implemented to project future land cover changes. The proposed framework is then employed to forecast UHI intensity in Da Nang’s urban center in 2040. Based on the prediction results, the area with extremely high UHI intensity is expected to increase by 3.7%. The area with high UHI intensity is projected to rise by 4.6%, while the area with medium UHI intensity is anticipated to expand by 12.6%. Notably, it is forecasted that the areas with extremely low and low UHI intensity are forecasted to decrease by 3.9% and 40.8%, respectively. The findings from this study can be useful to assist urban planners in establishing effective mitigation strategies for reducing the impact of UHI effects. Full article

Urbanization and the reduction of green spaces have significantly contributed to problems such as rising temperatures and declining air quality in urban areas. This study examines the impact of different types of green areas—broadleaved trees, coniferous trees, shrubs, and vines—on urban temperature regulation at the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University Zihni Derin Campus. Surface temperature, humidity, ambient temperature, and wind speed measurements were collected using an infrared thermometer over a one-year period under various climatic conditions (August, October, January, and April) and at different times of the day (09:00 AM, 01:00 PM, and 05:00 PM). To quantitatively assess the cooling effect of each type of green area, a Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was applied, and a predictive formula was developed to estimate the cooling impact of various green areas under different environmental conditions. These formulated models enable the estimation of the temperature reduction provided by these four plant types based on different input parameters, achieving an accuracy of approximately 92% or higher without requiring direct measurements. The findings of this study provide a robust methodological framework and a practical tool for optimizing green space designs, mitigating urban heat island effects, and enhancing urban living comfort under various climatic conditions. Full article

Accelerated urbanization in China poses significant challenges for developing urban planning strategies that are responsive to diverse climatic conditions. This demands a sophisticated understanding of the complex interactions between 3D urban forms and local climate dynamics. This study employed the Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) of the Pix2Pix algorithm as a predictive model to simulate 3D urban morphologies aligned with Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classifications. The research framework comprises four key components: (1) acquisition of LCZ maps and urban form samples from selected Chinese megacities for training, utilizing datasets such as the World Cover database, RiverMap’s building outlines, and integrated satellite data from Landsat 8, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2; (2) evaluation of the Pix2Pix algorithm’s performance in simulating urban environments; (3) generation of 3D urban models to demonstrate the model’s capability for automated urban morphology construction, with specific potential for examining urban heat island effects; (4) examination of the model’s adaptability in urban planning contexts in projecting urban morphological transformations. By integrating urban morphological inputs from eight representative Chinese metropolises, the model’s efficacy was assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively, achieving an RMSE of 0.187, an R² of 0.78, and a PSNR of 14.592. In a generalized test of urban morphology prediction through LCZ classification, exemplified by the case of Zhuhai, results indicated the model’s effectiveness in categorizing LCZ types. In conclusion, the integration of urban morphological data from eight representative Chinese metropolises further confirmed the model’s potential in climate-adaptive urban planning. The findings of this study underscore the potential of generative algorithms based on LCZ types in accurately forecasting urban morphological development, thereby making significant contributions to sustainable and climate-responsive urban planning. Full article