Search Results (2,898)

Drought is a slowly evolving, multi-driver hydro-meteorological hazard whose accurate early prediction is a cornerstone of climate-smart agriculture and water-resource planning. Existing data-driven drought forecasting frameworks suffer from three persistent limitations: (i) most models concatenate heterogeneous climate variables into a single flat feature vector, implicitly assuming a single dominant driver such as precipitation, even though atmospheric moisture demand, radiation and wind-mediated evapotranspiration co-determine drought onset; (ii) wavelet preprocessing is typically applied to the full series, introducing future-information leakage that violates the operational causality requirement of forecasting; and (iii) most architectures predict a single horizon and provide no causal attribution explaining when, where and which climatic variables initiated the event. This study proposes WaveDroughtNet, a multi-modal, multi-horizon deep-learning framework that addresses these limitations through five integrated components: (a) a strictly causal Daubechies-4 wavelet decomposition computed in a rolling fashion; (b) six modality-specific encoders with stochastic modality dropout (p = 0.15); (c) cross-modal multi-head attention with four heads; (d) a four-layer temporal convolutional network (TCN) backbone with dilation factors yielding a 240-step receptive field; and (e) a post hoc DroughtOriginTracer that combines temporal attention, modal-attribution and inter-district propagation scans. The Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), used as the supervisory target, is computed following the canonical Vicente-Serrano formulation. water balance $D=P-\mathrm{P}\mathrm{E}\mathrm{T}$ (Hargreaves PET) at a 4-week (≈1-month) timescale, fitted with a three-parameter log-logistic distribution via L-moments, validated by Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit testing ($\alpha =0.05$) per district, and standardised through the inverse-normal cumulative distribution function. Trained on 18,304 weekly district records from NASA POWER reanalysis (2014–2025) covering all 32 districts of Tamil Nadu, India, WaveDroughtNet uses only 256,869 parameters and produces, in a single forward pass, four forecasts (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 1 year). On the held-out 2024 test partition ($N=1728$), the model attains weighted $F1=0.9221$ and $R^2=0.8512$ at the 1-week horizon, and weighted $F1=0.8498$ and $R^2=0.6812$ at the 1-year horizon. Diebold–Mariano tests confirm that WaveDroughtNet significantly outperforms naive persistence, seasonal naive, LSTM, ConvLSTM and a vanilla Transformer at the 3-month and 1-year horizons (p < 0.001). The DroughtOriginTracer successfully back-projects 15 Coimbatore events to causal origins 29–41 weeks prior to onset. We explicitly acknowledge three limitations that constrain operational deployment in its current form—zero severe events in the 2024 test partition ($F{1}_{severe}$ = 0.000), static inter-district modelling, and absence of vegetation-index supervision—and propose concrete mitigation pathways in the Discussion. Full article

Near-fault ground motions (NFGMs), characterized by forward-directivity velocity pulses, impose severe kinematic demands that challenge conventional structural systems. As modern civil engineering pivots toward rapid functional recovery, a critical paradigm shift is required: moving from component-centric kinematic vulnerability diagnostics to network-level systemic resilience optimization. This comprehensive review elucidates this transition, conceptualizing an integrated “3C Resilience Framework”—encompassing Coupled-multi-hazard, City-scale, and Carbon-friendly dimensions—as a strategic roadmap for next-generation seismic design. A pivotal focus is the physical evaluation of contemporary regulatory evolutions, specifically the multi-point spectral lower-bound constraints in American Society of Civil Engineers Standard 7-22 (ASCE 7-22) and the site-specific scaling factors in Eurocode 8. We demonstrate that these spectral floors are physically essential for flexible and isolated structures to constrain long-period kinetic energy, thereby mitigating the underestimation of residual drifts that fundamentally dictate repairability. Furthermore, this review explicitly aligns structural performance with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 9 & 11). By synthesizing advanced mitigation topologies with surrogate-assisted computational paradigms, this roadmap bridges the micro-to-macro scale gap between physical structural degradation and regional functional restoration, providing an actionable blueprint for sustainable urban networks. Full article

Background: Infection with HIV increases the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma, and the albumin–bilirubin grade assesses liver function and has been shown to be prognostic. We evaluated the albumin–bilirubin score/grade and the HIV status of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in Zimbabwe and explored the impact on median survival. Methods: A 10-year retrospective observational study of hepatocellular carcinoma patients was conducted at a single tertiary-level cancer center in Harare, Zimbabwe. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method, and differences between groups were compared using the log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: A total of 95 participants were evaluated, of whom 72.6% were male. Most HCC cases were diagnosed using imaging and serum alpha-fetoprotein, with 59% presenting at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C or D. Compared with patients who were HIV-negative, patients who were HIV-positive (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.54–5.26, p = 0.0008) or had an unknown HIV status (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.2–8; p < 0.0001) had higher odds of being at ALBI grade 3 at the time of HCC diagnosis. ALBI grade 1 patients had better median survival compared to grade 2 and 3 patients, though this result was statistically insignificant (grade 2: HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 0.30–7.13; grade 3: HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 0.28–7.60). Regarding HIV status, median survival was 2.4 months for HIV-positive patients and 2.6 months for HIV-negative patients (p = 0.51); HIV positivity was not significantly associated with median survival (HR = 1.50, 95% CI: 0.46–4.91). Only 30.5% of patients received cancer therapy, all of which was palliative, with no observed survival benefit. Conclusions: The majority of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in Zimbabwe were diagnosed at an advanced stage, with hepatitis B or C viral infections and alcohol consumption identified as primary risk factors. Median survival rates were low. Neither HIV infection nor ALBI score grading had a significant impact on median survival. Full article

This study proposes a human-centered multimodal framework for characterizing safety-relevant driver functional domains in professional bus drivers. Unlike conventional approaches that rely on isolated psychological or physical assessments, the proposed framework integrates self-perception, psychomotor performance, and cognitive–perceptual assessment to provide an exploratory, structured characterization of driver-related functional capacities. Eighteen professional bus drivers participated in this study. Self-perception data were obtained from all 18 participants, whereas psychomotor and cognitive–perceptual assessments were completed by 16 participants. These measurements were used to examine multiple domains relevant to driving safety, including behavioral awareness, motor coordination, attention, visual tracking, and hazard-perception-related processing. Given the modest sample size, the study should be regarded as an exploratory pilot investigation. Data were analyzed using a laboratory-based cross-sectional between-subjects design to examine age- and gender-related differences across the assessed domains. The findings suggested that selected age- and gender-related differences and descriptive tendencies were observable across multiple domains. Male drivers descriptively showed higher self-rating scores, female drivers showed different performance tendencies in selected psychomotor tasks, and male drivers demonstrated substantially greater grip strength. Older drivers showed slower and less efficient performance in several cognitive–perceptual measures, with the clearest age-related effect observed in the tachistoscopic traffic test, where older participants showed a higher error tendency under time-constrained traffic-scene processing conditions. The constructs and measures proposed in this study are intended as general laboratory-based assessments of driver-related capabilities rather than direct measures of actual driving performance, real-time driver-state indicators, or validated sensor-based monitoring indicators. As candidate human-factor constructs, they may inform future driver monitoring research by helping clarify how driver-related signals or behaviors could eventually be linked to underlying functional and safety-related meaning in intelligent transportation environments. Full article

Urban soil contamination by potentially toxic elements (PTEs) is a recognized health concern in densely populated urban environments. Through a systematic meta-analysis of 91 peer-reviewed studies (2000–2025) reporting 12,174 sampling sites in capital and core cities, we characterized regional patterns in the spatiotemporal dynamics and health risks of eight PTEs across two well-represented continental subsets (Asia, k = 18–36 per element; Europe, k = 11–23 per element) with comparative reference to the Americas, Africa, and Oceania. Given the uneven geographic distribution of qualifying primary studies, continental comparisons should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating: Asia (k = 18–36 per element) and Europe (k = 11–23 per element) provide the statistically robust core of the synthesis, while results for the Americas (k = 3–7 for several elements), Africa (k = 4–15), and Oceania (k = 2) are presented as illustrative rather than statistically representative. Pooled concentrations followed Zn (138.59) > Pb (56.97) > Cr (54.26) > Cu (47.00) > Ni (31.94) > As (8.56) > Hg (3.13) > Cd (1.23) mg·kg⁻¹. Within the well-represented Asian and European subsets, Asian cities showed the most severe enrichment of As, Cd, Cr, and Hg (I_geo > 4 in hotspots such as Kathmandu I_geo (Cd) = 7.06 and Jinan I_geo (Hg) = 5.27), whereas European centres exhibited substantial legacy Pb accumulation (pooled mean 87.69 mg·kg⁻¹). A reproducible pollution gradient was identified across functional zones: industrial > transportation ≥ residential > commercial > agricultural > urban green areas. The deterministic non-carcinogenic Hazard Index (HI = 1.49) for children in Asia exceeded the safe threshold (HI > 1), driven primarily by As and Cr exposure via incidental soil-and-dust ingestion. Monte Carlo probabilistic assessment (N = 10,000) confirmed elevated cumulative non-carcinogenic risk at the median of the exposure distribution for children in the data-rich Asian (P50 = 1.55; P(HI > 1) = 81.9%) and European (P50 = 1.28; P(HI > 1) = 69.8%) subsets, with adults in both subsets remaining well below the safety threshold (P(HI > 1) = 0.0%). Temporal analysis revealed a decoupling between economic growth and PTE accumulation in long-established cities, together with an inverse Ni–population correlation indicative of strategic resource allocation. For Asian capital and core cities, where the evidence base is strongest (k = 18–36 per element), the present synthesis supports further investigation of risk-based, child-centric soil management as a public-health priority. For European cities (k = 11–23 per element), the same direction of risk is indicated but should be confirmed in regionally focused syntheses. Policy considerations for under-represented regions should await expansion of the primary monitoring base. Full article

The corrosion of metal components leads to substantial economic losses and poses serious safety hazards. While organic coatings are regarded as an effective countermeasure, conventional epoxy resins (EPs) often exhibit high brittleness and insufficient corrosion resistance after curing. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a novel modification strategy. A multilayer graphene-reinforced epoxy composite coating was fabricated via a layer-by-layer spraying process, employing uniformly dispersed modified aramid nanofibers (ANFs) and low-defect graphene as functional fillers. Polydopamine (PDA) was utilized to improve the dispersion of graphene oxide (GO), mitigate defect-associated permeation pathways, and enhance the interfacial bonding between the graphene layer and the epoxy matrix, thereby ensuring coating integrity. Tannic acid (TA) effectively improves the dispersion of ANF within the epoxy, preventing stress concentration. The corrosion resistance and mechanical properties of the composite coating were systematically evaluated. Results demonstrate that the coating achieves a low-frequency impedance of 1.98 × 10¹⁰ Ω·cm². With the incorporation of 0.05% TA-modified ANFs, the elongation at break increases to 68.79%, and the impact resistance is significantly enhanced, with the impact height reaching 50 cm. The composite coating preparation strategy in this work offers a novel approach for constructing multifunctional composite coatings, demonstrating broad application prospects. Full article

In this study, we introduce a novel three-parameter discrete probability distribution, defined by the parameters $\alpha$, $\beta$, and $\lambda$, called the Generalized Nabla Geometric Distribution (GNGD). The proposed model is constructed through the discretization of a generalized mixture of exponential distributions. Among its parameters, $\beta$ plays a significant role in governing the tail behavior and determining the shape of the hazard rate function. The adaptability of the GNGD is further highlighted by its capability to model under-dispersed, equi-dispersed, and over-dispersed data. Several important theoretical properties of the proposed distribution are explored, including the probability generating function, moments, and reliability characteristics, all obtained in explicit closed forms. In addition, the distribution is characterized, and the asymptotic behavior of its minimum and maximum order statistics is investigated. Parameter estimation is performed using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach, and an extensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the efficiency and consistency of the estimators. To illustrate its practical usefulness, the GNGD is fitted to two real engineering data sets arising from repairable and non-repairable systems. The findings demonstrate that the proposed distribution provides an excellent fit to both data sets, achieving the smallest information loss criteria and the largest p-values among the competing goodness-of-fit measures considered. Full article

Background: As survival after colorectal cancer (CRC) has improved, an increasing proportion of patients live beyond five years, making long-term outcomes increasingly relevant. In addition to cancer-related mortality, survivors remain at risk of death from other causes influenced by clinical and psychosocial vulnerabilities. Methods: We conducted a 10-year prospective cohort study including 838 patients with stage I–IV CRC treated in public hospitals in the Basque Country (Spain). Patients were recruited between November 2010 and December 2012 and followed for up to 10 years after surgery. Clinical, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and patient-reported outcomes were collected. Competing risk regression models (Fine-Gray) were used to estimate sub-distribution hazard ratios (sHRs) for CRC-specific and non-CRC mortality, stratified by tumor site and sex. Results: After 10 years, 40% of patients had died, with 66% of deaths attributable to CRC and 34% to other causes. CRC-specific mortality was mainly driven by tumor-related factors, including advanced stage (stage IV: sHR 7.18, p < 0.001) and residual disease after surgery (R1/R2: sHR 2.68; p < 0.001), with larger effect sizes observed in rectal cancer. In contrast, non-CRC mortality was associated with patient vulnerability, including age ≥75 years (sHR 3.57, p < 0.001), absence of adjuvant chemotherapy (sHR 5.59, p < 0.001), anemia, alcohol consumption, and poor functional status. Patients with rectal cancer and women reported poorer baseline quality of life. Sex-stratified analyses suggested differential patterns of vulnerability, with psychosocial and quality-of-life-related factors appearing more relevant in women, whereas lifestyle and clinical factors appeared more prominent in men. Conclusions: Long-term mortality in CRC reflects the interplay between tumor-related factors and patient vulnerability. Competing risk models allow a more accurate characterization of cause-specific outcomes and may help identify high-risk subgroups for tailored follow-up and management strategies. Full article

Background: Ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) is characterized by heterogeneous structural remodeling that is not fully captured by conventional systolic metrics. How multidimensional structural echocardiographic information can improve pre-revascularization risk stratification remains unclear. Methods: In this retrospective study, 989 patients with ICM undergoing coronary angiography and revascularization were included in the derivation cohort, and 482 patients from an independent campus served as the validation cohort, with a median follow-up duration of 6.5 years. The primary endpoint was cardiovascular mortality. Eight routinely acquired pre-revascularization echocardiographic structural variables were analyzed. Unsupervised clustering identified structural clusters, and principal component analysis (PCA) was used to derive a structural risk score. Associations with cardiovascular mortality were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model, and prognostic performance was evaluated by comparing individual echocardiographic predictors using Harrell’s C-index and time-dependent AUC analyses. Results: Three distinct structural clusters emerged, differing in chamber size, systolic function, pulmonary pressures, mitral regurgitation severity, and long-term cardiovascular mortality. The PCA-derived structural risk score, reflecting the dominant axis of remodeling and volume overload, showed association with cardiovascular mortality in the derivation cohort and remained independently predictive after multivariable adjustment. Compared with single echocardiographic parameters, both the structural clusters and the risk score demonstrated superior discriminative performance. In the validation cohort, the structural score again showed a consistent and independent association with cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions: Multidimensional structural echocardiographic assessment reveals clinically meaningful remodeling patterns and enables construction of a robust PCA-derived structural risk score. Both approaches provide prognostic information beyond individual echocardiographic measures and support more precise pre-revascularization risk stratification in patients with ICM. Full article

The scientific literature lacks sufficient data on the transport of various toxic pollutants by polymer particles. Investigating how the structure of microplastic particles formed during the degradation of polymeric materials affects pollutant sorption processes will improve our ability to predict environmental behavior. General-purpose polystyrene, expanded polystyrene, ABS plastic (acrylonitrile–butadiene–styrene) and crosslinked polystyrene are produced on an industrial scale. Copolymers of styrene with divinylbenzene are used on a large scale as sorbents for gel permeation chromatography (Styragel brand sorbents), in the production of catalysts on a polymer substrate or ion-exchange resins. In this study, non-spherical, crosslinked polystyrene microparticles with varying polystyrene chain packing densities were used as model microplastic particles representative of crosslinked polystyrene. It was shown that the adsorption of a hazardous chemical rhodamine B was influenced by both the packing density of the polystyrene chains and the presence of ionic functional groups, i.e., the “degree of aging” of the microplastic particles. The sorption capacities of these model microparticles were compared with those of natural origin (silicon dioxide, quartz powder, and microcrystalline cellulose). A viability assay using HEK293 and HeLa cell lines exposed to leachates from both pristine and rhodamine B-loaded microparticles revealed that all unmodified microparticles, regardless of their nature, exhibited no cytotoxicity at concentrations up to 1000 μg/mL. In contrast, microparticles with adsorbed rhodamine B significantly reduced cell viability to 20–40% at concentrations of 100 μg/mL. Full article

Background/Objectives: Hyperuricemia may influence cognitive function, but current evidence remains inconsistent. This study examined the association between hyperuricemia/gout and cognitive impairment through a prospective cohort study and a systematic review of cohort studies. Methods: Data from 1959 Taiwan Biobank participants aged ≥60 years without mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia at baseline were analyzed over a mean follow-up duration of 4.47 years (2012–2021). Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Participants were classified by changes in serum uric acid status from baseline to follow-up, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For the systematic review, cohort studies published up to March 2026 were identified from eight databases. Results: During follow-up, 1013 participants developed incident MCI and 132 developed dementia. Compared with participants who maintained normal serum uric acid levels, those who developed hyperuricemia during follow-up had a significantly lower MCI risk (HR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.57–0.90), as did those with persistent hyperuricemia (HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.64–0.95). No significant association was observed for dementia. The systematic review of five prospective cohort studies comprising 2,261,704 participants showed inconsistent findings with considerable heterogeneity (I² = 96.7%). Conclusions: Rising serum uric acid levels were associated with lower MCI risk, but not dementia. These findings should not be interpreted as support for intentionally increasing serum uric acid levels or withholding urate-lowering therapy. Further long-term studies are needed. Full article

Negatively charged molecules and anions are widely present in the natural environment and can pose a threat to aquatic life, affecting their survival and reproduction. As the understanding of the hazards of negatively charged molecules and ions deepens, the need for real-time monitoring governs the development of highly sensitive and convenient sensing materials. Here, highly luminescent Zn-Cu-In-S core–shell colloidal quantum dots were grafted onto cotton fabric to produce a fluorescence cotton fabric (FCF) optical sensor demonstrating photoluminescence response to the presence of several anions in water, such as phosphate (PO₄³⁻), hydroxide (OH⁻), fluoride (F⁻), chloride (Cl⁻), or bromide (Br⁻). After contact with water solutions containing these anions, PL output from FCF remarkably decreases, with specific functional dependence on the concentration of the selected anions. The fluorescent fabric sensing material is easy to operate, achieving real-time detection of negatively charged groups and showing great potential for application in environmental monitoring. Full article

Coastal continuous girder bridges are exposed to coupled environmental and seismic hazards during long-term service, including chloride-induced corrosion, freeze–thaw damage, scour, near-field ground motions, and structural irregularity. These factors can progressively reduce structural capacity, amplify seismic demand, redistribute component responses, and affect post-earthquake functionality and recovery. This paper reviews recent advances in the time-dependent seismic vulnerability and resilience assessment of reinforced concrete and prestressed concrete coastal continuous girder bridges. Based on 229 screened publications, the review first summarizes deterioration mechanisms and modelling approaches for chloride corrosion, freeze–thaw damage, and scour, with emphasis on their effects on material degradation, component capacity, foundation restraint, and seismic fragility. The demand-side effects of near-field vertical excitation and pulse-like ground motions are then discussed, followed by the seismic response characteristics of irregular continuous girder bridges, including curved alignments, unequal pier heights, and skewed supports. Existing studies indicate that environmental deterioration can shift fragility curves toward lower intensity levels, near-field vertical excitation can modify axial force, bearing contact state, girder–bearing separation, and impact response, while structural irregularity may concentrate seismic demand in critical components. Furthermore, the review clarifies the transition from time-dependent fragility analysis to functionality loss, recovery modelling, and lifecycle resilience assessment. The main research gaps include simplified deterioration representation, insufficient coupling of deterioration–hazard–irregularity effects, limited validation of time-dependent fragility models, and weak integration between component damage, bridge functionality, recovery trajectories, and resilience indicators. Future studies should develop more unified, uncertainty-informed, and lifecycle-oriented frameworks for coastal bridge vulnerability and resilience assessment. Full article

This paper develops a structural, inferential, and computational study of a Lomax-based model on a unit interval obtained through the odds transformation $Z=Y/(1+Y)$ of a baseline Lomax random variable. Rather than proposing a genuinely new unit distribution, the paper clarifies the model’s exact position in the literature by showing that it is equivalent, up to complementation and reparametrization, to a previously reported unit-Lomax-type construction. The contribution is therefore focused on its odds-scale interpretation, analytical tractability, and reliable inference. We derive the main distributional functions, endpoint behavior, hazard shapes, quantiles, moments, and odds-scale representations. We also show that likelihood inference reduces to classical Lomax inference on the odds-transformed sample, which explains the severe maximum likelihood estimator instability observed in small-sample and heavy-tailed regimes. To address this issue, we complement maximum likelihood estimation with maximum product of spacings estimation. Monte Carlo experiments and real-data applications illustrate that the maximum likelihood estimator may be reliable for moderate tail behavior and sufficiently large samples, whereas the MPS estimator provides a more stable alternative in challenging finite-sample settings. Full article

This study presents a geospatial framework for assessing landslide risk along one of the most landslide-prone road networks in Greece, located in the Region of Epirus. Utilizing a field-verified inventory of 295 active landslides, the research evaluates five key predisposing factors (lithology, slope, elevation, land use, and cumulative annual precipitation) using the bivariate Frequency Ratio (FR) statistical model. Among six tested configurations, the baseline model integrating all factors demonstrated the highest reliability, quantitatively validated through Prediction Rate Curves yielding an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.788 with the use of an independent dataset of 126 landslides. As a spatial outcome of this statistically validated configuration, nearly 80% of the study area was classified within Moderate to Very High susceptibility zones. The resulting Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) was converted into an event-based Landslide Hazard Index (LHI) and integrated with a weighted Road Vulnerability Map based on functional importance and traffic volume. The final Landslide Risk Map highlights critical risk clusters along major transportation corridors traversing weak geological formations, steep slopes, and high-precipitation areas. This quantitative approach provides a focused decision-support tool for regional authorities to prioritize geotechnical monitoring and allocate resources for road infrastructure improvement and safety. Full article