Search Results (54)

Winter mixed-phase precipitation (P) impacts transportation, electric power grids, and homes. Forecasting winter precipitation such as freezing precipitation (ZP), freezing rain (ZR), freezing drizzle (ZL), ice pellets (IPs), and the snow (S) and rain (R) boundary remains challenging due to the complex cloud microphysical and dynamical processes involved, which are difficult to predict with the current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding these processes based on observations is crucial for improving NWP models. To aid this effort, Environment and Climate Change Canada deployed specialized instruments such as the Vaisala FD71P and OTT PARSIVEL disdrometers, which measure P type (PT), particle size distributions, and fall velocity (V). The liquid water content (LWC) and mean mass-weighted diameter (${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{m}}$) were derived based on the PARSIVEL data during ZP events. Additionally, a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and an OTT Pluvio2 P gauge were used as part of the Winter Precipitation Type Research Multi-Scale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) field campaign at Sorel, Quebec. The dataset included manual measurements of the snow water equivalent (SWE), PT, and radiosonde profiles. The analysis revealed that the FD71P and PARSIVEL instruments generally agreed in detecting P and snow events. However, FD71P tended to overestimate ZR and underestimate IPs, while PARSIVEL showed superior detection of R, ZR, and S. Conversely, the FD71P performed better in identifying ZL. These discrepancies may stem from uncertainties in the velocity–diameter (V-D) relationship used to diagnose ZR and IPs. Observations from the MRR, radiosondes, and surface data linked ZR and IP events to melting layers (MLs). IP events were associated with colder surface temperatures (Ts) compared to ZP events. Most ZR and ZL occurrences were characterized by light P with low LWC and specific intensity and ${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{m}}$ thresholds. Additionally, snow events were more common at warmer T compared to liquid P under low surface relative humidity conditions. The Pluvio2 gauge significantly underestimated snowfall compared to the optical probes and manual measurements. However, snowfall estimates derived from PARSIVEL data, adjusted for snow density to account for riming effects, closely matched measurements from the FD71P and manual observations. Full article

With varying tangential winds and combinations of stratiform and convective clouds, tropical cyclones (TCs) can be difficult to accurately portray when mosaicking data from ground-based radars. This study utilizes the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) from the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) satellite to evaluate reflectivity obtained using four sampling methods of Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler data, including ground radars (GRs) in the GPM ground validation network and three mosaics, specifically the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System plus two we created by retaining the maximum value in each grid cell (MAX) and using a distance-weighted function (DW). We analyzed Hurricane Laura (2020), with a strong gradient in tangential winds, and Tropical Storm Isaias (2020), where more stratiform precipitation was present. Differences between DPR and GR reflectivity were larger compared to previous studies that did not focus on TCs. Retaining the maximum value produced higher values than other sampling methods, and these values were closest to DPR. However, some MAX values were too high when DPR time offsets were greater than 120 s. The MAX method produces a more consistent match to DPR than the other mosaics when reflectivity is <35 dBZ. However, even MAX values are 3–4 dBZ lower than DPR in higher-reflectivity regions where gradients are stronger and features change quickly. The DW and MRMS mosaics produced values that were similar to one another but lower than DPR and MAX values. Full article

This study introduces methods for generating fused precipitation data by applying radial basis function (RBF) interpolation, which integrates radar reflectivity-based data with ground-based precipitation gauge measurements. Rain gauges provide direct point rainfall measurements near the ground, while radars capture the spatial variability of precipitation. However, radar-based estimates, particularly for extreme rainfall events, often lack accuracy due to their indirect derivation from radar reflectivity. The study aims to produce high-resolution gridded ground precipitation data by merging radar rainfall estimates with the precise rain gauge measurements. Rain gauge data were sourced from automated synoptic observing systems (ASOSs) and automatic weather systems (AWSs), while radar data, based on hybrid surface rainfall (HSR) composites, were all provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Although RBF interpolation is a well-established technique, its application to the merging of radar and rain gauge data is unprecedented. To validate the accuracy of the proposed method, it was compared with traditional approaches, including the mean field bias (MFB) adjustment method, and kriging-based methods such as regression kriging (RK) and kriging with external drift (KED). Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was performed to assess errors by analyzing overall error statistics, spatial errors, and errors in rainfall intensity data. The results showed that the RBF-based method outperformed the others in terms of accuracy. Full article

Weather radar plays a critical role in flash flood forecasting, providing an effective and comprehensive guide for the identification of possible flood-prone areas. However, the utilization of radar precipitation data remains limited in current research and applications, particularly in addressing flash flood hazards in complex environments such as in Athens, Greece. To address this gap, this study introduces the Gridded Flash Flood Guidance (GFFG) method, a short-term flash flood forecasting and warning technology based on radar precipitation and hydrological model coupling, and implements it in the region of Athens, Greece. The GFFG system improves upon the traditional flash flood guidance (FFG) concept by better integrating the weather radar dataset’s spatial and temporal flexibility, leading to increased resolution results. Results from six flood events underscore its ability to identify high-risk areas dynamically, with urban regions frequently flagged for flooding unless initial soil moisture conditions are low. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the system showed that the most crucial parameter apart from rainfall input is the soil moisture conditions, which define the amount of effective rainfall. This study highlights the significance of incorporating radar precipitation and real-time soil moisture assessments to improve flood prediction accuracy and provide valuable flood risk assessments. Full article

Climate change is expected to alter the environmental suitability of land use and land cover (LULC) classes globally. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of the most representative LULC classes in the southern Brazilian semiarid region. We employed the Random Forest algorithm trained with climatic, soil, and topographic data to project future LULC suitability under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 2.6 (optimistic) and 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios. The climate data included the mean annual air temperature and precipitation from the WorldClim2 platform for historical (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) scenarios. Soil data were obtained from the SoilGrids 2.1 digital soil mapping platform, while topographic data were produced by NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Our model achieved an overall accuracy of 60%. Under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), croplands may lose approximately 8% of their suitable area, while pastures are expected to expand by up to 30%. Areas suitable for savannas are expected to increase under both RCP scenarios, potentially expanding into lands historically occupied by forests, grasslands, and eucalyptus plantations. These projected changes may lead to biodiversity loss and socioeconomic disruptions in the study area. Full article

Contrasting the X-band phased array radar (XPAR) with the conventional S-Band dual-polarization mechanical scanning radar (SMSR), the XPAR offers superior temporal and spatial resolution, enabling a more refined depiction of the internal dynamics within convective systems. While both SMSR and XPAR data are extensively used in monitoring and alerting for severe convective weather, their comparative application in numerical weather prediction through data assimilation remains a relatively unexplored area. This study harnesses the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and its data assimilation system (WRFDA) to integrate radial velocity and reflectivity from the Guangzhou SMSR and nine XPARs across Guangdong Province. Utilizing a three-dimensional variational approach at a 1 km convective-scale grid, the assimilated data are applied to forecast a rainstorm event in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) on 6 June 2022. Through a comparative analysis of the results from assimilating SMSR and XPAR data, it was observed that the assimilation of SMSR data led to more extensive adjustments in the lower- and middle-level wind fields compared to XPAR data assimilation. This resulted in an enlarged convergence area at lower levels, prompting an overdevelopment of convective systems and an excessive concentration of internal hydrometeor particles, which in turn led to spurious precipitation forecasts. However, the sequential assimilation of both SMSR and XPAR data effectively reduced the excessive adjustments in the wind fields that were evident when only SMSR data were used. This approach diminished the generation of false echoes and enhanced the precision of quantitative precipitation forecasts. Additionally, the lower spectral width of XPAR data indicates its superior detection accuracy. Assimilating XPAR data alone yields more reasonable adjustments to the low- to middle-level wind fields, leading to the formation of small-to-medium-scale horizontal convergence lines in the lower levels of the analysis field. This enhancement significantly improves the model’s forecasts of composite reflectivity and radar echoes, aligning them more closely with actual observations. Consequently, the Threat Score (TS) and Equitable Threat Score (ETS) for heavy-rain forecasts (>10 mm/h) over the next 5 h are markedly enhanced. This study underscores the necessity of incorporating XPAR data assimilation in numerical weather prediction practices and lays the groundwork for the future joint assimilation of SMSR and XPAR data. Full article

Using radar to estimate and forecast precipitation as input for hydrological models has become increasingly popular in recent years because of its superior spatial and temporal simulation compared with using rain gauge data. This study used radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) to select the optimal parameter set for the MIKE URBAN hydrological model and radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) to simulate inundation in Nam Dinh city, Vietnam. The results show the following: (1) radar has the potential to improve the modeling and provide the data needed for real-time smart control if proper bias adjustment is obtained and the risk of underestimated flows after heavy rain is minimized, and (2) the MIKE URBAN model used to calculate two simulation scenarios with rain gauge data and QPE data showed effectiveness in combining the application of radar-based precipitation for the forecasting and warning of urban floods in Nam Dinh city. The results in Scenario 2 with rainfall forecast data from radar provide better simulation results. The average relative error in Scenario 2 is 9%, while the average relative error in Scenario 1 is 15%. Using the grid radar-based precipitation forecasting as input data for the MIKE URBAN model significantly reduces the error between the observed water depth and the simulated results compared with the case using an input rain gauge measured at Nam Dinh station (the difference in inundation level of Scenario 2 using radar-based precipitation is 0.005 m, and it is 0.03 m in Scenario 1). The results obtained using the QPE and QPF radar as input for the MIKE URBAN model will be the basis for establishing an operational forecasting system for the Northern Delta and Midland Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center, Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration. Full article

A series of typhoons and tropical storms have produced extreme precipitation events in Vietnam during the first part of the 2020 monsoon season: events of this magnitude pose significant challenges to remote sensing Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) techniques. The weather-monitoring needs of modern human activities require that these challenges be overcome. In order to address this issue, in this work, seven precipitation products were validated with high spatial and temporal detail against over 1200 rain gauges in Vietnam during six case studies tailored around the most intense events of 2020. The data sources included the Vietnamese weather radar network, IMERG Early run and Final run, the South Korean GEO-KOMPSAT-2A and Chinese FengYun-4A geostationary satellites, DPR on board the GPM-Core Observatory, and European ERA5-Land reanalysis. All products were resampled to a standardized 0.02° grid and compared at hourly scale with ground stations measurements. The results indicated that the radars product was the most capable of reproducing the information collected by the rain gauges during the selected extreme events, with a correlation coefficient of 0.70 and a coefficient of variation of 1.38. However, it exhibited some underestimation, approximately 30%, in both occurrence and intensity. Conversely, geostationary products tended to overestimate moderate rain rates (FY-4A) and areas with low precipitation (GK-2A). More complex products such as ERA5-Land and IMERG failed to capture the highest intensities typical of extreme events, while GPM-DPR showed promising results in detecting the highest rain rates, but its capability to observe isolated events was limited by its intermittent coverage. Full article

Landslide susceptibility mapping based on static influence factors often exhibits issues of low accuracy and classification errors. To enhance the accuracy of susceptibility mapping, this study proposes a refined approach that integrates categorical boosting (CatBoost) with small baseline subset interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (SBAS-InSAR) results, achieving more precise and detailed susceptibility mapping. We utilized optical remote sensing images, the information value (IV) model, and fourteen influencing factors (elevation, slope, aspect, roughness, profile curvature, plane curvature, lithology, distance to faults, land use type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), topographic wetness index (TWI), distance to rivers, distance to roads, and annual precipitation) to establish the IV-CatBoost landslide susceptibility mapping method. Subsequently, the Sentinel-1A ascending data from January 2021 to March 2023 were utilized to derive the deformation rates within the city of Lishui in the southern region of China. Based on the outcomes derived from IV-CatBoost and SBAS-InSAR, a discernment matrix was formulated to rectify inaccuracies in the partitioned regions, leading to the creation of a refined information value CatBoost integration (IVCI) landslide susceptibility mapping model. In the end, we utilized optical remote sensing interpretations alongside surface deformations obtained from SBAS-InSAR to cross-verify the excellence and accuracy of IVCI. Research findings indicate a distinct enhancement in susceptibility levels across 165,784 grids (149.20 km²) following the integration of SBAS-InSAR correction. The enhanced susceptibility classes and the spectral characteristics of remote sensing images closely correspond to the trends of SBAS-InSAR cumulative deformation, reflecting a high level of consistency with field-based conditions. These improved classifications effectively enhance the refinement of landslide susceptibility mapping. The refined susceptibility mapping approach proposed in this paper effectively enhances landslide prediction accuracy, providing valuable technical reference for landslide hazard prevention and control in the Lishui region. Full article

Heavy rainfall and flood disasters are frequent in mountainous watersheds in southwest China, and forecasting runoff floods in some mountainous watersheds is difficult. In this study, a typical watershed in the southwest mountainous region, the Qingyi River (13,000 km²), was selected for the lack of precipitation observation data in the watershed, and the BTOPMC (block-wise use of the topographic-based hydrologic model (TOPMODEL)) was used, using CMPA-Hourly (China Hourly Merged Precipitation Analysis combining observations from automatic weather stations, meteorological satellite, and weather radar at 0.05° × 0.05° grid) to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. The results show that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of the flood forecast for the verification period in the Jiajiang section of the Qingyi River using CMPA-Hourly improved from 0.66 to 0.78, the flood error reduced from 18% to 9%, and the overall accuracy reached grade B or above. The results indicate that CMPA-Hourly, which integrates ground observation–radar–satellite precipitation, effectively combined the advantages of different sources of data to improve the resolution and accuracy of precipitation data, and then CMPA-Hourly can be used to improve the accuracy of runoff and flood forecasting. Full article

In this study, we applied an explainable machine learning technique based on the LightGBM method, a category of gradient boosting decision tree algorithm, to conduct a quantitative radar precipitation estimation and move to understand the underlying reasons for excellent estimations. By introducing 3D grid radar reflectivity data into the LightGBM algorithm, we constructed three LightGBM models, including 2D and 3D LightGBM models. Ten groups of experiments were carried out to compare the performances of the LightGBM models with traditional Z–R relationship methods. To further assess the performances of the LightGBM models, rainfall events with 11,483 total samples during August-September of 2022 were used for statistical analysis, and two heavy rainfall events were specifically chosen for the spatial distribution evaluation. The results from both the statistical analysis and spatial distribution demonstrate that the performance of the LightGBM 3D model with nine points is the best method for quantitative precipitation estimation in this study. Through analyzing the explainability of the LightGBM models from Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) regression values, it can be inferred that the superior performance of the LightGBM 3D model is mainly attributed to its consideration of the rain gauge station attributes, diurnal variation characteristics, and the influence of spatial offset. Full article

The Agroray project was aimed at the development of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction system that will allow farmers to optimize their activities and protect their products from adverse weather events. The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model and focuses on Central Macedonia with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km. The aim of this article is to describe the model configuration and validate its performance during selected frost and intense precipitation events. The evaluation against station measurements and radar precipitation showed that the optimum model setup includes Corine land use and enhanced vertical resolution near the surface. Full article

This study presents a comparative analysis of flood simulations using rain gauge, ground- and space-borne radar precipitation products. The objectives are to assess the effectiveness of two radar-based data sources, namely the Radar-AWS Rainrates (RAR) and Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), in a dam watershed with gauge observations, and explore the modeling feasibility of integrating the half-hourly IMERG satellite precipitation in regions with ungauged or limited observational area. Two types of HEC-HMS models were developed, considering areal-averaged and spatially distributed gridded data simulations utilizing eight selected storm events. The findings indicate that the RAR data, although slightly underestimate precipitation compared to the gauge measurements, accurately reproduce hydrographs without requiring parameter adjustments (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, E_NS, 0.863; coefficient of determination, R², 0.873; and percent bias, PBIAS, 7.49%). On the other hand, flood simulations using the IMERG data exhibit lower model efficiency and correlation, suggesting potential limitations in ungauged watersheds. Nevertheless, with available discharge data, the calibrated model using IMERG shows prospects for utilization (E_NS 0.776, R² 0.787, and PBIAS 7.15%). Overall, this research offers insights into flood simulations using various precipitation products, emphasizing the significance of reliable discharge data for accurate hydrological modeling and the need for further evaluation of the IMERG product. Full article

The Fourier–Merlin transform method, multi-scale optical flow method, and Weibull distribution are used to integrate the GRAPES_3 km model and Radar Extrapolation Forecast (REF) both developed independently by China. Taking GRAPES_3 km, Wuhan Rapid Update Cycle (WHRUC), and the REF as examples, the prediction performance of the Blending forecast is evaluated comprehensively by the traditional point-to-point method. A new spatial test method is introduced to evaluate the applicability and difference of high-resolution model evaluation. The area, position, shape, and intensity of the precipitation area are matched through the target object test method. The potential forecast information of the spatial field is obtained and the related results are compared and analyzed. The results show that: (1) the comprehensive application of various evaluation methods can evaluate the convective storm forecast more comprehensively. The Blending forecast effect is obviously better than those of other models by using the point-to-point scoring method, especially in the heavy precipitation forecast. The shorter the prediction time is, the better the effect is. (2) The new spatial test method can evaluate the prediction effect of convective storm characteristics, and the target recognition hit rate of the Blending forecast is highest. The scores of target area, position, shape, and median intensity of precipitation are better than those of other forecasts. The variation in the east–west direction is less than that in the north–south direction, which is basically consistent with the actual observation. The variation range of the forecast grid before and after translation is the closest to the reality. (3) The Blending forecast method combines the advantages and disadvantages of the numerical model and REF, which can not only grasp the precipitation area but also improve the prediction ability of rainfall intensity. The traditional point-to-point scoring method and the new spatial test method have the same conclusion as the convective storm forecast of the high-resolution model, which has a certain reference value, and the new spatial test method can provide more detailed evaluation information. Full article

This Special Issue of Remote Sensing, which is the third in a series entitled “Remote Sensing of Precipitation”, comprises a collection of ten papers devoted to remote sensing applications for measuring precipitation; these include new satellite technologies for the remote sensing of precipitation, the validation of satellite-based precipitation estimates using rain gauge measurements and surface radar estimates, and comparisons between gridded precipitation data [...] Full article