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Keywords = gradient boosting regressor (GBR)

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16 pages, 1477 KB  
Article
Machine Learning-Based Modeling of Tractor Fuel and Energy Efficiency During Chisel Plough Tillage
by Ergün Çıtıl, Kazım Çarman, Muhammet Furkan Atalay, Nicoleta Ungureanu and Nicolae-Valentin Vlăduț
Sustainability 2026, 18(2), 855; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18020855 - 14 Jan 2026
Viewed by 198
Abstract
Improving fuel and energy efficiency in agricultural tillage is critical for sustainable farming and reducing environmental impacts. In this study, the effects of forward speed and tillage depth on the fuel efficiency parameters of a tractor–chisel plough combination were investigated under controlled field [...] Read more.
Improving fuel and energy efficiency in agricultural tillage is critical for sustainable farming and reducing environmental impacts. In this study, the effects of forward speed and tillage depth on the fuel efficiency parameters of a tractor–chisel plough combination were investigated under controlled field conditions on clay soil. Specific fuel consumption (SFC), fuel consumption per unit area (FCPA), and overall energy efficiency (OEE) were evaluated at four forward speeds (0.6, 0.95, 1.2 and 1.4 m·s−1) and four tillage depths (15, 19.5, 23 and 26.5 cm). SFC ranged from 0.519 to 1.237 L·kW−1·h−1, while OEE varied between 7.918 and 18.854%. Higher forward speeds significantly reduced fuel consumption and improved energy efficiency, whereas deeper tillage increased fuel use and reduced efficiency. Optimal operation occurred at speeds of 1.2–1.4 m·s−1 and shallow to medium depths. Five machine learning algorithms: Polynomial Regression (PL), Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Decision Tree Regressor (DTR), were applied to model fuel efficiency parameters. RFR achieved the highest accuracy for predicting SFC, while PL performed best for FCPA and OEE, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) below 2%. Models such as PL and RFR excel in data structures dominated by nonlinear relationships. These results highlight the potential of machine learning to guide data-driven decisions for fuel and energy optimization in tillage, promoting more sustainable mechanization strategies and resource-efficient agricultural production. Full article
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18 pages, 1419 KB  
Article
Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Complex Shear Modulus of Polymer-Modified Bitumen Aged Under Modified TFOT Conditions
by Sebnem Karahancer
Coatings 2025, 15(11), 1241; https://doi.org/10.3390/coatings15111241 - 24 Oct 2025
Viewed by 650
Abstract
The ageing of polymer-modified bitumen (PMB) significantly affects its rheological performance and service life in asphalt pavements. In this study, experimental data PMB 25/55–60 aged under a modified Thin Film Oven Test (TFOT) were restructured into a tidy dataset and analyzed using machine [...] Read more.
The ageing of polymer-modified bitumen (PMB) significantly affects its rheological performance and service life in asphalt pavements. In this study, experimental data PMB 25/55–60 aged under a modified Thin Film Oven Test (TFOT) were restructured into a tidy dataset and analyzed using machine learning techniques. The input variables included temperature, angular frequency, and ageing condition, while the output variable was the complex shear modulus (G*). Two state-of-the-art regression models, Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), were trained and evaluated. Performance assessment revealed that GBR outperformed RF, achieving R2 = 0.992, MAE = 1.07 × 106 Pa, and RMSE = 2.04 × 106 Pa, compared to RF with R2 = 0.962. Condition-wise analysis further confirmed the robustness of GBR across different TFOT scenarios. Feature importance analysis identified temperature as the dominant factor influencing rheological behavior, followed by frequency and ageing condition. These findings demonstrate the potential of gradient boosting approaches for accurately predicting the rheological properties of aged PMB, providing a reliable tool for performance evaluation and supporting the development of predictive frameworks for pavement materials. Full article
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30 pages, 2980 KB  
Article
Game On: Exploring the Potential for Soft Skill Development Through Video Games
by Juan Bartolomé, Idoya del Río, Aritz Martínez, Andoni Aranguren, Ibai Laña and Sergio Alloza
Information 2025, 16(10), 918; https://doi.org/10.3390/info16100918 - 20 Oct 2025
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2265
Abstract
Soft skills remain fundamental for employability and sustainable human development in an increasingly technology-driven society. These interpersonal and cognitive competencies—such as communication, adaptability, and critical thinking—represent uniquely human capabilities that current Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems cannot replicate. However, assessing and developing these skills [...] Read more.
Soft skills remain fundamental for employability and sustainable human development in an increasingly technology-driven society. These interpersonal and cognitive competencies—such as communication, adaptability, and critical thinking—represent uniquely human capabilities that current Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems cannot replicate. However, assessing and developing these skills consistently remains a challenge due to the lack of standardized evaluation frameworks. This study explores the potential of commercial video games as engaging environments for soft skills enhancement and introduces an AI-based assessment methodology to quantify such improvement. Using player data collected from the Steam platform, we designed and validated an AI model based on Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) to estimate participants’ soft skill progression. The model achieved high predictive performance (R2 ≈ 0.9; MAE/RMSE ≈ 1), demonstrating strong alignment between gameplay behavior and soft skill improvement. The results highlight that video game-based data analysis can provide a reliable, non-intrusive alternative to traditional testing methods, reducing test-related anxiety while maintaining assessment validity. This approach supports the integration of video games into educational and professional training frameworks as a scalable and data-driven tool for soft skills development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Artificial Intelligence and Games Science in Education)
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15 pages, 8859 KB  
Article
A Hybrid Estimation Model for Graphite Nodularity of Ductile Cast Iron Based on Multi-Source Feature Extraction
by Yongjian Yang, Yanhui Liu, Yuqian He, Zengren Pan and Zhiwei Li
Modelling 2025, 6(4), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/modelling6040126 - 13 Oct 2025
Viewed by 640
Abstract
Graphite nodularity is a key indicator for evaluating the microstructure quality of ductile iron and plays a crucial role in ensuring product quality and enhancing manufacturing efficiency. Existing research often only focuses on a single type of feature and fails to utilize multi-source [...] Read more.
Graphite nodularity is a key indicator for evaluating the microstructure quality of ductile iron and plays a crucial role in ensuring product quality and enhancing manufacturing efficiency. Existing research often only focuses on a single type of feature and fails to utilize multi-source information in a coordinated manner. Single-feature methods are difficult to comprehensively capture microstructures, which limits the accuracy and robustness of the model. This study proposes a hybrid estimation model for the graphite nodularity of ductile cast iron based on multi-source feature extraction. A comprehensive feature engineering pipeline was established, incorporating geometric, color, and texture features extracted via Hue-Saturation-Value color space (HSV) histograms, gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), Local Binary Pattern (LBP), and multi-scale Gabor filters. Dimensionality reduction was performed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to mitigate redundancy. An improved watershed algorithm combined with intelligent filtering was used for accurate particle segmentation. Several machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), are applied to estimate graphite nodularity based on geometric features (GFs) and feature extraction. Experimental results demonstrate that the CatBoost model trained on fused features achieves high estimation accuracy and stability for geometric parameters, with R-squared (R2) exceeding 0.98. Furthermore, introducing geometric features into the fusion set enhances model generalization and suppresses overfitting. This framework offers an efficient and robust approach for intelligent analysis of metallographic images and provides valuable support for automated quality assessment in casting production. Full article
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23 pages, 4097 KB  
Article
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of E. coli in Riverine and Deltaic Waters of Northeastern Greece: Monte Carlo Simulation and Predictive Perspectives
by Agathi Voltezou, Elpida Giorgi, Christos Stefanis, Konstantinos Kalentzis, Elisavet Stavropoulou, Agathangelos Stavropoulos, Evangelia Nena, Chrysoula (Chrysa) Voidarou, Christina Tsigalou, Theodoros C. Konstantinidis and Eugenia Bezirtzoglou
Toxics 2025, 13(10), 863; https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics13100863 - 11 Oct 2025
Viewed by 1021
Abstract
This study presents a comprehensive Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) for Escherichia coli in northeastern Greece’s riverine and deltaic aquatic systems, evaluating potential human health risks from recreational water exposure. The analysis integrates seasonal microbiological monitoring data—E. coli, total coliforms, enterococci, [...] Read more.
This study presents a comprehensive Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) for Escherichia coli in northeastern Greece’s riverine and deltaic aquatic systems, evaluating potential human health risks from recreational water exposure. The analysis integrates seasonal microbiological monitoring data—E. coli, total coliforms, enterococci, Salmonella spp., Clostridium perfringens (spores and vegetative forms), and physicochemical parameters (e.g., pH, temperature, BOD5)—across multiple sites. A beta-Poisson dose–response model within a Monte Carlo simulation framework (10,000 iterations) was applied to five exposure scenarios, simulating varying ingestion volumes for different population groups. Median annual infection risks ranged from negligible to high, with several locations (e.g., Mandra River, Konsynthos South, and Delta Evros) surpassing the World Health Organization (WHO)’s benchmark of 10−4 infections per person per year. A Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) model was developed to enhance predictive capacity, demonstrating superior accuracy metrics. Permutation Importance analysis identified enterococci, total coliforms, BOD5, temperature, pH, and seasons as critical predictors of E. coli concentrations. Additionally, sensitivity analysis highlighted the dominant role of ingestion volume and E. coli levels across all scenarios and sites. These findings support the integration of ML-based tools and probabilistic modelling in water quality risk governance, enabling proactive public health strategies in vulnerable or high-use recreational zones. Full article
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22 pages, 2718 KB  
Article
Prediction of Time Variation of Local Scour Depth at Bridge Abutments: Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning
by Yusuf Uzun and Şerife Yurdagül Kumcu
Water 2025, 17(17), 2657; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17172657 - 8 Sep 2025
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1132
Abstract
Computing the temporal variation in clearwater scour depth around abutments is important for bridge foundation design. To reach the equilibrium scour depth at bridge abutments takes a very long time. However, the corresponding times under prototype conditions can yield values significantly greater than [...] Read more.
Computing the temporal variation in clearwater scour depth around abutments is important for bridge foundation design. To reach the equilibrium scour depth at bridge abutments takes a very long time. However, the corresponding times under prototype conditions can yield values significantly greater than the time to reach the design flood peak. Therefore, estimating the temporal variation in scour depth is necessary. This study evaluates multiple machine learning (ML) models to identify the most accurate method for predicting scour depth (Ds) over time using experimental data. The dataset of 3275 records, including flow depth (Y), abutment length (L), channel width (B), velocity (V), time (t), sediment size (d50), and Ds, was used to train and test Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gradient Boosting (GBR), XGBoost, LightGBM, and KNN models. Results demonstrated the superior performance of AI-based models over conventional regression. The RFR model achieved the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.9956, Accuracy = 99.73%), followed by KNN and GBR. In contrast, the conventional LR model performed poorly (R2 = 0.4547, Accuracy = 57.39%). This study confirms the significant potential of ML, particularly ensemble methods, to provide highly reliable scour predictions, offering a robust tool for enhancing bridge design and safety. Full article
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17 pages, 820 KB  
Article
AI-Driven Optimization of Cu2O Modified Bitumen: A Multi-Scale Evaluation of Rheological, Aging, and Moisture Susceptibility Performance
by Sebnem Karahancer
Materials 2025, 18(17), 4201; https://doi.org/10.3390/ma18174201 - 8 Sep 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 860
Abstract
This study explores the integration of copper oxide (Cu2O) into bitumen and leverages Artificial Intelligence (AI) to evaluate and optimize the binder’s performance across multiple scales. Comprehensive laboratory tests, including conventional binder properties, rheological analysis, aging simulations, low-temperature cracking, and moisture [...] Read more.
This study explores the integration of copper oxide (Cu2O) into bitumen and leverages Artificial Intelligence (AI) to evaluate and optimize the binder’s performance across multiple scales. Comprehensive laboratory tests, including conventional binder properties, rheological analysis, aging simulations, low-temperature cracking, and moisture susceptibility, were conducted on base and Cu2O modified asphalt binders. The results were used to train predictive models using gradient boosting regressors for each performance category. Optimization identified ideal Cu2O ratios for different engineering goals, offering practical recommendations. Based on this integrated cost-performance analysis, a Cu2O concentration of 2.3% was recommended as the most efficient trade-off point. AI modeling using Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) achieved high predictive performance, with R2 values reaching 0.98 for BBR prediction and 0.78 for rheology, and mean absolute error (MAE) values as low as 4.21. This demonstrates the model’s robustness in capturing complex nonlinear binder behaviors. Full article
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24 pages, 4872 KB  
Article
Leveraging Machine Learning (ML) to Enhance the Structural Properties of a Novel Alkali Activated Bio-Composite
by Assia Aboubakar Mahamat, Moussa Mahamat Boukar, Ifeyinwa Ijeoma Obianyo, Philbert Nshimiyimana, Blasius Ngayakamo, Nordine Leklou and Numfor Linda Bih
J. Compos. Sci. 2025, 9(9), 464; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcs9090464 - 1 Sep 2025
Viewed by 831
Abstract
This study explored the use of Borassus fruit fiber as reinforcement for earthen matrices (BFRC). The experimental results of the testing carried out on the structural properties were used to generate a primary dataset for training and testing machine learning (ML) models. Linear [...] Read more.
This study explored the use of Borassus fruit fiber as reinforcement for earthen matrices (BFRC). The experimental results of the testing carried out on the structural properties were used to generate a primary dataset for training and testing machine learning (ML) models. Linear regression (LR), Decision tree regressor (DTR), and gradient boosting regression (GBR) were used to build an ensemble learning (EL) model during the prediction of the hygroscopic properties, Young’s modulus, and compressive strength of the BFRC. Fiber content, activation concentration, curing days, dry weight, saturated weight, mass, flexural vibration, longitudinal vibration, correction factor, maximum load, and cross-sectional area were the various inputs considered in the structural properties prediction. The performance of both EL and single models (SMs) was appraised via three performance metrics—mean square error (MSE), root mean square (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2)—to comparatively ascertain the model’s efficiency. Results showed that all models exhibited high accuracy in predicting Young’s modulus and compressive strength. Ensemble learning outperformed single models in predicting these properties, with MSE, RMSE, and R2 of 0.01 MPa, 0.1 MPa, and 99% and 3,923,262.5 MPa, 1980.7 Pa, and 99% for compressive strength and Young’s modulus, respectively. However, for hygroscopic behavior, linear regression (LR) demonstrated superior performance compared to other models, with MSE, RMSE, and R2 values of 0.13%, 0.36%, and 99%. Full article
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19 pages, 3532 KB  
Article
Machine Learning Prediction of CO2 Diffusion in Brine: Model Development and Salinity Influence Under Reservoir Conditions
by Qaiser Khan, Peyman Pourafshary, Fahimeh Hadavimoghaddam and Reza Khoramian
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(15), 8536; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158536 - 31 Jul 2025
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 1207
Abstract
The diffusion coefficient (DC) of CO2 in brine is a key parameter in geological carbon sequestration and CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), as it governs mass transfer efficiency and storage capacity. This study employs three machine learning (ML) models—Random Forest (RF), [...] Read more.
The diffusion coefficient (DC) of CO2 in brine is a key parameter in geological carbon sequestration and CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), as it governs mass transfer efficiency and storage capacity. This study employs three machine learning (ML) models—Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boost Regressor (GBR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—to predict DC based on pressure, temperature, and salinity. The dataset, comprising 176 data points, spans pressures from 0.10 to 30.00 MPa, temperatures from 286.15 to 398.00 K, salinities from 0.00 to 6.76 mol/L, and DC values from 0.13 to 4.50 × 10−9 m2/s. The data was split into 80% for training and 20% for testing to ensure reliable model evaluation. Model performance was assessed using R2, RMSE, and MAE. The RF model demonstrated the best performance, with an R2 of 0.95, an RMSE of 0.03, and an MAE of 0.11 on the test set, indicating high predictive accuracy and generalization capability. In comparison, GBR achieved an R2 of 0.925, and XGBoost achieved an R2 of 0.91 on the test set. Feature importance analysis consistently identified temperature as the most influential factor, followed by salinity and pressure. This study highlights the potential of ML models for predicting CO2 diffusion in brine, providing a robust, data-driven framework for optimizing CO2-EOR processes and carbon storage strategies. The findings underscore the critical role of temperature in diffusion behavior, offering valuable insights for future modeling and operational applications. Full article
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35 pages, 3218 KB  
Article
Integrated GBR–NSGA-II Optimization Framework for Sustainable Utilization of Steel Slag in Road Base Layers
by Merve Akbas
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(15), 8516; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158516 - 31 Jul 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1218
Abstract
This study proposes an integrated, machine learning-based multi-objective optimization framework to evaluate and optimize the utilization of steel slag in road base layers, simultaneously addressing economic costs and environmental impacts. A comprehensive dataset of 482 scenarios was engineered based on literature-informed parameters, encompassing [...] Read more.
This study proposes an integrated, machine learning-based multi-objective optimization framework to evaluate and optimize the utilization of steel slag in road base layers, simultaneously addressing economic costs and environmental impacts. A comprehensive dataset of 482 scenarios was engineered based on literature-informed parameters, encompassing transport distance, processing energy intensity, initial moisture content, gradation adjustments, and regional electricity emission factors. Four advanced tree-based ensemble regression algorithms—Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERTs), Gradient Boosted Regressor (GBR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Regressor (XGBR)—were rigorously evaluated. Among these, GBR demonstrated superior predictive performance (R2 > 0.95, RMSE < 7.5), effectively capturing complex nonlinear interactions inherent in slag processing and logistics operations. Feature importance analysis via SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretative insights, highlighting transport distance and energy intensity as dominant factors affecting unit cost, while moisture content and grid emission factor predominantly influenced CO2 emissions. Subsequently, the Gradient Boosted Regressor model was integrated into a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) framework to explore optimal trade-offs between cost and emissions. The resulting Pareto front revealed a diverse solution space, with significant nonlinear trade-offs between economic efficiency and environmental performance, clearly identifying strategic inflection points. To facilitate actionable decision-making, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method was applied, identifying an optimal balanced solution characterized by a transport distance of 47 km, energy intensity of 1.21 kWh/ton, moisture content of 6.2%, moderate gradation adjustment, and a grid CO2 factor of 0.47 kg CO2/kWh. This scenario offered a substantial reduction (45%) in CO2 emissions relative to cost-minimized solutions, with a moderate increase (33%) in total cost, presenting a realistic and balanced pathway for sustainable infrastructure practices. Overall, this study introduces a robust, scalable, and interpretable optimization framework, providing valuable methodological advancements for sustainable decision making in infrastructure planning and circular economy initiatives. Full article
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15 pages, 1382 KB  
Article
Wave Run-Up Distance Prediction Combined Data-Driven Method and Physical Experiments
by Peng Qin, Hangwei Zhu, Fan Jin, Wangtao Lu, Zhenzhu Meng, Chunmei Ding, Xian Liu and Chunmei Cheng
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2025, 13(7), 1298; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13071298 - 1 Jul 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 671
Abstract
Predicting wave run-up on seawalls is essential for assessing coastal flood risk and guiding resilient design. In this study, we combine physical model experiments with a hybrid data driven method to forecast wave run-up distance. Laboratory tests generated a nonlinear data set spanning [...] Read more.
Predicting wave run-up on seawalls is essential for assessing coastal flood risk and guiding resilient design. In this study, we combine physical model experiments with a hybrid data driven method to forecast wave run-up distance. Laboratory tests generated a nonlinear data set spanning a wide range of wave amplitudes, wavelengths, Froude numbers. To capture the underlying physical regimes, the records were first classified using a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which automatically grouped waves of similar hydrodynamic character. Within each cluster a Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) was then trained, allowing the model to learn tailored input–output relationships instead of forcing a single global fit. Results demonstrate that the GMM-GBR combined model achieves a coefficient of determination R2 greater than 0.91, outperforming a conventional, non-clustered GBR model. This approach offers a reliable tool for predicting seawall performance under varying wave conditions, contributing to better coastal management and resilience strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wave Hydrodynamics in Coastal Areas)
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23 pages, 13525 KB  
Article
Machine Learning-Driven Optimization of Machining Parameters Optimization for Cutting Forces and Surface Roughness in Micro-Milling of AlSi10Mg Produced by Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing
by Zihni Alp Cevik, Koray Ozsoy, Ali Ercetin and Gencay Sariisik
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(12), 6553; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15126553 - 10 Jun 2025
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3602
Abstract
This study focuses on optimizing machining parameters in the micro-milling of AlSi10Mg aluminum alloy produced via the powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process. Although additive manufacturing enables complex geometries and minimizes material waste, challenges remain in reducing surface roughness and cutting forces during [...] Read more.
This study focuses on optimizing machining parameters in the micro-milling of AlSi10Mg aluminum alloy produced via the powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process. Although additive manufacturing enables complex geometries and minimizes material waste, challenges remain in reducing surface roughness and cutting forces during post-processing. Micro-milling experiments were conducted using spindle speeds up to 60,000 rpm, with varied feed rates and cutting depths. Cutting forces (Fx, Fy, and Fz) were measured using a Kistler-9119AA1 mini dynamometer, while surface roughness (Ra) was evaluated with a Nanovea-ST400 3D optical profilometer. Five advanced machine learning models, random forest regressor (RFR), gradient boosting regressor (GBR), LightGBM, CatBoost, and k-nearest neighbors (KNN), were employed to predict cutting forces and surface roughness, with CatBoost achieving the highest predictive accuracy (R2 > 0.96). Among all models, CatBoost achieved the best predictive performance, with test R2 values exceeding 0.96 for both force and Ra estimations. Experimental and ML-based results demonstrated that higher feed rates and depths of cut increased cutting forces, particularly in the Fx direction, while elevated spindle speeds reduced forces due to thermal softening. Surface roughness was minimized at lower feed rates and higher spindle speeds. The optimal machining conditions for achieving Ra < 1 µm were identified as ap = 50 µm, n = 30,000 rpm, and fz = 0.25 µm/tooth. This integrated approach supports precision machining of AM aluminum alloys. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Additive Manufacturing Technologies)
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22 pages, 6139 KB  
Article
Three Environments, One Problem: Forecasting Water Temperature in Central Europe in Response to Climate Change
by Mariusz Ptak, Mariusz Sojka, Katarzyna Szyga-Pluta and Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen
Forecasting 2025, 7(2), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast7020024 - 29 May 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2547
Abstract
Water temperature is a fundamental parameter influencing a range of biotic and abiotic processes occurring within various components of the hydrosphere. This study presents a multi-step, data-driven predictive modeling framework to estimate water temperatures for the period 2021–2100 in three aquatic environments in [...] Read more.
Water temperature is a fundamental parameter influencing a range of biotic and abiotic processes occurring within various components of the hydrosphere. This study presents a multi-step, data-driven predictive modeling framework to estimate water temperatures for the period 2021–2100 in three aquatic environments in Central Europe: the Odra River, the Szczecin Lagoon, and the Baltic Sea. The framework integrates Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) regression, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Random Forest (RF) machine learning models. To assess the performance of the models, the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used. The results showed that the application of statistical downscaling methods improved the prediction of air temperatures with respect to the BMA. Moreover, the RF method was used to predict water temperature. The best model performance was obtained for the Baltic Sea and the lowest for the Odra River. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario-based simulations, projected air temperature increases in the period 2021–2100 could range from 1.5 °C to 1.7 °C and 4.7 to 5.1 °C. In contrast, the increase in water temperatures by 2100 will be between 1.2 °C and 1.6 °C (SSP2-4.5 scenario) and between 3.5 °C and 4.9 °C (SSP5-8.5). Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Weather and Forecasting)
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13 pages, 1827 KB  
Article
Soil Moisture Content Prediction Using Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) Model: Soil-Specific Modeling with Five Depths
by Tarek Alahmad, Miklós Neményi and Anikó Nyéki
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(11), 5889; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15115889 - 23 May 2025
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1475
Abstract
Monitoring soil moisture content (SMC) remains challenging due to its spatial and temporal variability. Accurate SMC prediction is essential for optimizing irrigation and enhancing water use efficiency. In this research, a Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) model was developed and validated to predict SMC [...] Read more.
Monitoring soil moisture content (SMC) remains challenging due to its spatial and temporal variability. Accurate SMC prediction is essential for optimizing irrigation and enhancing water use efficiency. In this research, a Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) model was developed and validated to predict SMC in two soil textures, loam and silt loam, using meteorological data from Internet of Things (IoT) sensors and gravimetric SMC field measurements collected from five different depths. The statistical analysis revealed significant variation in SMC across depths in loam soil (p < 0.05), while silt loam exhibited more stable moisture distribution. The GBR model demonstrated high performance in both soil textures, achieving R2 values of 0.98 and 0.94 for silt loam and loam soils, respectively, with low prediction errors (RMSE 0.85 and 0.97, respectively). Feature importance analysis showed that precipitation and humidity were the most influential features in loam soil, while solar radiation had the highest impact on prediction in silt loam soil. Soil depth also showed a significant contribution to SMC prediction in both soils. These results highlight the necessity for soil-specific modeling to enhance SMC prediction accuracy, optimize irrigation systems, and support water resources management approaches aligning with SDG6 objectives. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Technologies for Precision Agriculture)
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15 pages, 4774 KB  
Article
A Feasibility Study on Gradient Boosting Regressor for Subsurface Sensor-Based Surface Instability Assessment
by Shanelle Aira Rodrigazo, Junhwi Cho, Cherry Rose Godes, Yongseong Kim, Yongjin Kim, Seungjoo Lee and Jaeheum Yeon
Land 2025, 14(3), 565; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030565 - 7 Mar 2025
Viewed by 1182
Abstract
Urban expansion into rural and peri-urban areas increases landslide risks, posing significant threats to infrastructure and public safety. However, most studies focus on surface displacement or meteorological inputs, with less emphasis on subsurface sensor data that could detect early instability precursors. To address [...] Read more.
Urban expansion into rural and peri-urban areas increases landslide risks, posing significant threats to infrastructure and public safety. However, most studies focus on surface displacement or meteorological inputs, with less emphasis on subsurface sensor data that could detect early instability precursors. To address these gaps, this study presents a proof-of-concept validation, establishing the feasibility of using subsurface sensor data to predict near-surface slope displacements. A laboratory-scale slope model (300 cm × 50 cm × 50 cm) at a 30° inclination was subjected to simulated rainfall (150 mm/h for 180 s), with displacement measured at depths of 5 cm and 25 cm using PDP-2000 extensometers. The Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) effectively captured the nonlinear relationship between subsurface and surface displacements, achieving high predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.939, MSE = 0.470, MAE = 0.320, RMSE = 0.686). Results demonstrate that, while subsurface sensors do not detect sudden failure events, they effectively capture progressive deformation, offering valuable inputs for multi-sensor EWS in proactive urban planning. Despite demonstrating feasibility, limitations include the controlled laboratory environment and simplified slope conditions. Future work should focus on field-scale validation and multi-sensor fusion to enhance real-world applicability in diverse geological settings. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Urban Contexts and Urban-Rural Interactions)
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