Search Results (599)

Oil spill simulation models are essential for predicting the oil spill behavior and movement in marine environments. In this study, we comprehensively reviewed a large and diverse body of peer-reviewed literature obtained from Scopus and Web of Science. Our initial analysis phase focused on examining trends in scientific publications, utilizing the complete dataset derived after systematic screening and database integration. In the second phase, we applied elements of a systematic review to identify and evaluate the most influential contributions in the scientific field of oil spill simulations. Our analysis revealed a steady and accelerating growth of research activity over the past five decades, with a particularly notable expansion in the last two. The field has also experienced a marked increase in collaborative practices, including a rise in international co-authorship and multi-authored contributions, reflecting a more global and interdisciplinary research landscape. We cataloged the key modeling frameworks that have shaped the field from established systems such as OSCAR, OIL-MAP/SIMAP, and GNOME to emerging hybrid and Lagrangian approaches. Hydrodynamic models were consistently central, often integrated with biogeochemical, wave, atmospheric, and oil-spill-specific modules. Environmental variables such as wind, ocean currents, and temperature were frequently used to drive model behavior. Geographically, research has concentrated on ecologically and economically sensitive coastal and marine regions. We conclude that future progress will rely on the real-time integration of high-resolution environmental data streams, the development of machine-learning-based surrogate models to accelerate computations, and the incorporation of advanced biodegradation and weathering mechanisms supported by experimental data. These advancements are expected to enhance the accuracy, responsiveness, and operational value of oil spill modeling tools, supporting environmental monitoring and emergency response. Full article

Floating solar technology has gained significant attention as part of the global expansion of renewable energy due to its potential for installation in underutilized water bodies. Several countries, including the Netherlands, have initiated efforts to extend this technology from inland freshwater applications to open offshore environments, particularly within offshore wind farm areas. This development is motivated by the synergistic benefits of increasing site energy density and leveraging the existing offshore grid infrastructure. The deployment of offshore floating photovoltaic (OFPV) systems involves assembling multiple modular units in a marine environment, introducing operational risks that may give rise to safety concerns. To mitigate these risks, weather windows must be considered prior to the task execution to ensure continuity between weather-sensitive activities, which can also lead to additional time delays and increased costs. Consequently, optimizing marine logistics becomes crucial to achieving the cost reductions necessary for making OFPV technology economically viable. This study employs a simulation-based approach to estimate the installation duration of a 5 MWp OFPV plant at a Dutch offshore wind farm site, started in different months and under three distinct risk management scenarios. Based on 20 years of hindcast wave data, the results reveal the impacts of campaign start months and risk management policies on installation duration. Across all the scenarios, the installation duration during the autumn and winter period is 160% longer than the one in the spring and summer period. The average installation durations, based on results from 12 campaign start months, are 70, 80, and 130 days for the three risk management policies analyzed. The result variation highlights the additional time required to mitigate operational risks arising from potential discontinuity between highly interdependent tasks (e.g., offshore platform assembly and mooring). Additionally, it is found that the weather-induced delays are mainly associated with the campaigns of pre-laying anchors and platform and mooring line installation compared with the other campaigns. In conclusion, this study presents a logistics modeling methodology for OFPV systems, demonstrated through a representative case study based on a state-of-the-art truss-type design. The primary contribution lies in providing a framework to quantify the performance of OFPV installation strategies at an early design stage. The findings of this case study further highlight that marine installation logistics are highly sensitive to local marine conditions and the chosen installation strategy, and should be integrated early in the OFPV design process to help reduce the levelized cost of electricity. Full article

Land cover, topography, precipitation, and socio-economic factors exert both direct and indirect influences on urban land surface temperatures. Within the broader context of global climate change, these influences are magnified by the escalating intensity of the urban heat island effect. However, the interplay and underlying mechanisms of natural and socio-economic determinants of land surface temperatures remain inadequately explored, particularly in the context of cold-region cities located in the northern temperate zone of China. This study focuses on Changchun City, employing multispectral remote sensing imagery to derive and spatially map the distribution of land surface temperatures and topographic attributes. Through comprehensive analysis, the research identifies the principal drivers of temperature variations and delineates their seasonal dynamics. The findings indicate that population density, night-time light intensity, land use, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), relief, and elevation exhibit positive correlations with land surface temperature, whereas slope demonstrates a negative correlation. Among natural factors, the correlations of slope, relief, and elevation with land surface temperature are comparatively weak, with determination coefficients (R²) consistently below 0.15. In contrast, socio-economic factors exert a more pronounced influence, ranked as follows: population density (R² = 0.4316) > GDP (R² = 0.2493) > night-time light intensity (R² = 0.1626). The overall hierarchy of the impact of individual factors on the temperature model, from strongest to weakest, is as follows: population, night-time light intensity, land use, GDP, slope, relief, and elevation. In examining Changchun and analogous cold-region cities within the northern temperate zone, the research underscores that socio-economic factors substantially outweigh natural determinants in shaping urban land surface temperatures. Notably, human activities catalyzed by population growth emerge as the most influential factor, profoundly reshaping the urban thermal landscape. These activities not only directly escalate anthropogenic heat emissions, but also alter land cover compositions, thereby undermining natural cooling mechanisms and exacerbating the urban heat island phenomenon. Full article

There is still a need to develop scenarios and models aimed at substituting fuelwood and reducing the use of fossil fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), on which low-income rural households in the Global South often depend. The use of these fuels for cooking and heating in domestic and productive activities poses significant health and environmental risks. This study validated, in three different phases, the sustainability of a model for the production and use of biogas from the treatment of swine-rearing wastewater (WWs) on a community farm: (i) A Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), incorporating environmental, social/health, technical, and economic criteria, identified the main weighted criterion to C8 (use of small-scale technologies and low-cost access), with a score of 0.44 points, as well as the Tubular biodigester (Tb) as the most suitable option for the study area, scoring 8.1 points. (ii) Monitoring of the Tb over 90 days showed an average biogas production of 2.6 m³ d⁻¹, with average correlation 0.21 m³ Biogas kg Biomass⁻¹. Using the experimental biogas production rate (k = 0.0512 d⁻¹), the process was simulated with the BgMod model, achieving an average deviation of only 10.4% during the final production phase. (iii) The quantification of benefits demonstrated significant reductions in firewood use: in Scenario S1 (kitchen energy needs), biogas replaced 83.1% of firewood, while in Scenario S2 (citronella essential oil production), the substitution rate was 24.1%. In both cases, the avoided emissions amounted to 0.52 tons of CO_2eq per month. Finally, this study proposes a synthesised, community-based rural biogas framework designed for replication in regions with similar socio-environmental, technical, and economic conditions. Full article

The intensifying global climate warming caused by human activities poses severe challenges to ecosystem stability. Constructing an ecological security pattern can identify ecological land supply and an effective spatial distribution baseline and provide a scientific basis for safeguarding regional ecological security. This study analyzes land-use data from 2000 to 2020 for Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. The PLUS model was utilized to project land-use potential for the year 2030. The InVEST model was employed to conduct a comprehensive assessment of habitat quality in the study area for both 2020 and 2030, thereby pinpointing ecological sources. Critical ecological restoration zones were delineated by identifying ecological corridors, pinch points, and barrier points through the application of the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model and circuit theory. By comparing ecological security patterns (ESPs) in 2020 and 2030, we proposed a dynamic restoration framework and optimization recommendations based on habitat quality changes and ESPs. The results indicate significant land-use changes in the eastern part of Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2020 to 2030, with large-scale conversion of grasslands into bare land, farmland, and artificial surfaces. The ecological security pattern is threatened by risks like the deterioration of habitat quality, diminished ecological sources as well as pinch points, and growing barrier points. Optimizing the layout of ecological resources, strengthening barrier zone restoration and pinch point protection, and improving habitat connectivity are urgent priorities to ensure regional ecological security. This study offers a scientific foundation for the harmonization of ecological protection and economic development and the policy development and execution of relevant departments. Full article

With rapid socio-economic development, excessive anthropogenic consumption and the exploitation of natural resources have impaired the self-healing, supply, and carrying capacities of ecosystems. The assessment and prediction of ecosystem service values (ESVs) are crucial for the coordinated development of ecology and economy. This research examines the Xiangjiang River Basin and combines land use data from 1995 to 2020, Landsat images, meteorological data, and socio-economic data. These data are incorporated into the PLUS model to simulate land use patterns in 2035 under the following five scenarios: natural development, economic development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and coordinated development. Additionally, this research analyzes the dynamics of land use and changes in ESVs in the Xiangjiang River Basin. The results show that between 1995 and 2020 in the Xiangjiang River Basin, urbanization accelerated, human activities intensified, and the construction land area expanded significantly, while the areas of forest, farmland, and grassland decreased continuously. Based on multi-scenario simulations, the ESV showed the largest and smallest declines under economic development and ecological protection scenarios, respectively. This results from the economic development scenario inducing a rapid expansion in construction land. In contrast, construction land expansion was restricted under the ecological protection scenario, because the ecological functions of forests and water bodies were prioritized. This research proposes land use strategies to coordinate ecological protection and economic development to provide a basis for sustainable development in the Xiangjiang River Basin and constructing a national ecological security barrier, as well as offer Chinese experience and local cases for global ecological environment governance. Full article

Globally, forest leisure and recreation (FLR) activities are widely recognized not only for their environmental and social benefits but also for their economic contributions. To better understand these economic contributions, it is vital to examine how the regional economic levels of customers vary when consuming FLR. This study aimed to empirically examine whether the regional economic level of residents (i.e., gross regional domestic product; GRDP) is classifiable using FLR expenditure data, and to interpret which variables contribute to its classification. We acquired anonymized credit card transaction data on residents of two regions with different GRDP levels. The data were preprocessed by identifying FLR-related industries and extracting key spending features for classification analysis. Five classification models (e.g., deep neural network (DNN), random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machine, and logistic regression) were applied. Among the models, the DNN model presented the best performance (overall accuracy = 0.73; area under the curve (AUC) = 0.82). SHAP analysis showed that the “FLR industry” variable was most influential in differentiating GRDP levels across all the models. These findings demonstrate that FLR consumption patterns may vary and are interpretable by economic levels, providing an empirical framework for designing regional economic policies. Full article

Driven by dual carbon targets, the scale of wind power integration has surged dramatically. However, its strong volatility causes insufficient short-term prediction accuracy, severely constraining grid security and economic dispatch. To address three key challenges in extracting temporal characteristics of strong volatility, adaptive fusion of multi-source features, and enhancing model interpretability, this paper proposes a Time-Domain Dual-Channel Adaptive Learning Model (TDDCALM). The model employs dual-channel feature decoupling: one Transformer encoder layer captures global dependencies while the raw state layer preserves local temporal features. After TCN-based feature compression, an adaptive weighted early fusion mechanism dynamically optimizes channel weights. The ACON adaptive activation function autonomously learns optimal activation patterns, with fused features visualized through visualization techniques. Validation on two wind farm datasets (A/B) demonstrates that the proposed method reduces RMSE by at least 8.89% compared to the best deep learning baseline, exhibits low sensitivity to time window sizes, and establishes a novel paradigm for forecasting highly volatile renewable energy power. Full article

The South Caspian Basin of Iran (SCBI), a vital ecosystem for unique and valuable fish species, is under severe threats due to anthropogenic activities that are rapidly deteriorating its fish biodiversity. The initial step to effectively combat or mitigate threats to biodiversity is to precisely identify these threats. While such threats are often categorized qualitatively, there is a lack of a comparative quantitative assessment of their severity. This means that although we may have a general understanding of the threats, we do not have a clear picture of how serious they are relative to one another. This study aimed to quantify and prioritize these threats using a modified quantitative “SWOT” (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis. Twenty multidisciplinary experts identified and evaluated 26 threats, and we used multivariate cluster analysis to categorize them as “High”, “Medium”, and “Low” based on their quantitative contributions to overall threat. Invasive non-native species and global warming emerged as the most significant threats, followed by resource exploitation, habitat destruction, and pollution. We then used this information to develop a “Situation Model” and “Results Chains” to guide responses to the threats. According to the Situation Model, these threats are interconnected, driven by factors such as population growth, unsustainable resource use, and climate change. To address these challenges, we propose the Results Chains, including two strategies focused on scientific research, land-use planning, public awareness, and community engagement. Prioritizing these actions is crucial for conserving the Caspian Sea’s unique fish fauna and ensuring the region’s ecological and economic sustainability. Full article

In the digital age, e-commerce has become a critical part of modern economies, shaping global economic growth and the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study uses robust statistical methods to explore the complex relationships between traditional trade, e-commerce, and key economic and sustainability indicators. The General Linear Model (GLM), factor analysis, and linear regression reveal that conventional trade remains vital for GDP growth, even though e-commerce clearly influences SDG performance. The study emphasizes the catalytic role of e-commerce in advancing sustainability by showing how treating it as a dependent variable speeds up SDG progress through Brown, Holt, and ARIMA forecasting models. Additionally, cluster analysis uncovers a strong link between higher SDG scores and increased e-commerce activity, with countries scoring better on sustainability often having more companies in the digital economy and earning more online. This research provides a comprehensive understanding of how e-commerce can support global sustainability goals, along with integrated policy recommendations that promote digital transformation and long-term environmental and social resilience. Full article

As digital transformation becomes an increasingly central focus of national and regional policy agendas, parallel efforts are intensifying to stimulate innovation as a critical driver of firm competitiveness and high-quality economic growth. However, regional disparities in innovation capacity persist. This study proposes an integrated framework in which regionally tracked digital economy indicators are leveraged to predict firm-level innovation performance, measured through patent activity, across China. Drawing on a comprehensive dataset covering 13 digital economic indicators from 2013 to 2022, this study spans core, broad, and narrow dimensions of digital development. Spatial dependencies among these indicators are assessed using global and local spatial autocorrelation measures, including Moran’s I and Geary’s C, to provide actionable insights for constructing innovation-conducive environments. To model the predictive relationship between digital metrics and innovation output, this study employs a suite of supervised machine learning techniques—Random Forest, Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, and stacked ensemble approaches. Our findings demonstrate the potential of digital infrastructure metrics to serve as early indicators of regional innovation capacity, offering a data-driven foundation for targeted policymaking, strategic resource allocation, and the design of adaptive digital innovation ecosystems. Full article

Facing the increasingly severe challenges of global climate change, China has established clear “dual carbon” goals, with the core objective of achieving carbon peak by 2030 or earlier. However, carbon emissions from the road freight industry have remained higher for many years; understanding and estimating the characteristics of truck carbon emissions are critical for developing a low-carbon transportation system. This study takes Heilongjiang Province, a typically cold region, as a case study. By employing the growth curve method, we predicted the time for achieving carbon peak and constructed an improved STIRPAT model to identify key drivers and pathways for emission reduction in the road freight system. The research results show that only by committing to using the economy to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy intensity can the overall carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province’s cargo transportation system achieve the “dual carbon” goals as soon as possible. If we develop according to the optimistic scenario proposed in this article, by 2030, the total quantity of trucks will reach about 933,720, and the carbon emissions per vehicle will reach about 178.14 t. If we actively increase the proportion of new energy trucks in the overall quantity of trucks, the peak time is expected to be achieved around 2030. The improvement of technological efficiency (e.g., lowering energy intensity) and the advancement of economic development have been identified as effective pathways for carbon emission reduction. Empirical studies indicate that these measures can achieve emission reduction impacts that are approximately 60 times and 10 times greater, respectively, in terms of efficiency, compared to baseline scenarios. Furthermore, energy intensity improvements and structural shifts toward low-carbon vehicles are critical to expediting peak attainment. This study provides a methodological framework for cold-region emission projections and offers actionable insights for policymakers to design tailored emission reduction pathways in the road freight transportation industry. Full article

Chronic pain affects approximately 20% of the global adult population, posing significant healthcare and economic challenges. Effective management requires addressing both biological and psychosocial factors, with emerging therapies such as antioxidants and marine algae offering promising new treatment avenues. Marine algae synthesize bioactive compounds, including polyphenols, carotenoids, and sulfated polysaccharides, which modulate oxidative stress, inflammation, and neuroimmune signaling pathways implicated in pain. Both preclinical and clinical studies support their potential application in treating inflammatory, neuropathic, muscular, and chronic pain conditions. Notable constituents include polyphenols, carotenoids (such as fucoxanthin), vitamins, minerals, and sulfated polysaccharides. These compounds modulate oxidative stress and inflammatory pathways, particularly by reducing reactive oxygen species (ROS) and downregulating cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Brown and red algae produce phlorotannins and fucoidans that alleviate pain and inflammation in preclinical models. Carotenoids like fucoxanthin demonstrate neuroprotective effects by influencing autophagy and inflammatory gene expression. Algal-derived vitamins (C and E) and minerals (magnesium, selenium, and zinc) contribute to immune regulation and pain modulation. Additionally, sulfated polysaccharides suppress microglial activation in the central nervous system (CNS). Marine algae represent a promising natural source of bioactive compounds with potential applications in pain management. Although current evidence, primarily derived from preclinical studies, indicates beneficial effects in various pain models, further research is necessary to confirm their efficacy, safety, and mechanisms in human populations. These findings advocate for the continued exploration of marine algae as complementary agents in future therapeutic strategies. Full article

The impact of urbanization on the agricultural economy has long attracted scholarly attention. Taking China as a case, this study investigates the relationship between urbanization and agricultural development under the dual progress of urbanization and the rural revitalization strategy. Based on panel data from 31 mainland provinces, this paper measures agricultural economic efficiency using the global slack-based measure (SBM) model and employs quantile regression to systematically analyze the influence of various urbanization factors across different levels of agricultural efficiency. A Tobit regression model is further adopted for robustness checks. The results show that representative urbanization factors, such as the proportion of urban population and the prevalence of higher education, exert significant negative impacts on agricultural efficiency, particularly in regions with higher efficiency levels. Freight volume has a significantly negative effect in regions with medium and low efficiency, while freight turnover negatively impacts medium- to high-efficiency areas. In contrast, improvements in healthcare services and digital infrastructure are found to consistently enhance agricultural efficiency. Although the corporatization of agriculture is often regarded as a key outcome of urbanization, its efficiency-improving effect is not statistically significant in most models and is mainly concentrated in high-efficiency regions. Overall, the improvement in China’s agricultural economic efficiency relies more on direct support from the rural revitalization strategy, while rapid urbanization has failed to bring substantial benefits and has even led to structural negative effects. These adverse outcomes may stem from the rapid occupation of suburban farmland, increased logistics costs due to the relocation of agricultural activities, and the ineffective absorption of surplus rural labor. This study highlights the need for future urbanization policies in China to pay greater attention to the coordinated development of the agricultural economy. The methods and findings of this research also provide reference value for other developing regions facing similar urbanization-agriculture dynamics. Full article

In the Asia–Pacific, where rice is an essential crop for food security and economic activity, tropical cyclones and consecutive floods can cause substantial damage to rice fields. Humanitarian organizations have developed impact-based forecasting models to be able to trigger early actions before floods arrive. In this study we show how Sentinel-1 SAR data and Otsu thresholding can be used to estimate flooding and damage caused to rice fields, using the case study of tropical storm Talas (2017). The current most accurate global Digital Elevation Model FABDEM was used to derive flood depths. Subsequently, rice yield loss curves and rice field maps were used to estimate economic damage. Our analysis results in a total of 475 km² of inundated rice fields in seven Northern Vietnam provinces. Flood depths were mostly shallow, with 2 km² having a flood depth of more than 0.5 m. Using these flood extent and depth values with rice damage curves results in lower damage values than the ones based on ground reporting, indicating a likely underestimation of flood depth. However, this study demonstrates that Sentinel-1-derived flood maps with the high-resolution DEM can deliver rapid damage estimates, also for those areas where there is no ground-based reporting of rice damage, showing its potential to be used in impact-based forecasting model training. Full article